The last few weeks has very much been a watching brief for me as far as the Tennis tournaments go and that has been the case in the last couple of years after the US Open.
Instead of having Picks from the WTA Finals, the lack of respect the organisation had for their top eight players meant a late venue selection and none of the players were particularly happy with the conditions in Cancun. You have to hope that better is going to be provided for the top WTA players in twelve months time, but it also meant there was too much uncertainty for me to really make any selections with any real confidence.
Things should be much more settled on the ATP side of the Tour with the World Tour Finals to be played in Turin.
Conditions here were pretty quick a year ago, so that is something to keep an eye on, while it should be a fantastic week for the fans in Turin with the quality of matches expected in each session.
And they also have another home player making the top eight and looking to make a mark at a big tournament, which should keep the fans engaged.
Jannik Sinner - 2.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: He won the ATP Finals in 2019, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has had little success in this tournament ever since it was moved from London to Turin. Overall the performances have been strong enough to keep Stefanos Tsitsipas inside the top eight of the World Rankings, but he has yet to win a Grand Slam title and there will be a slight concern that his window is closing.
One of the main reasons that some will think that is that the Greek player has produced a 2-8 record against top ten Ranked opponents over the last year. Ultimately you are going to have to beat at least one of those and possibly two in order to win a Grand Slam title, especially with the World Ranking down at Number 6.
In that time, Stefanos Tsitsipas has a 2-4 record in hard court matches with his sole victory coming in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals last year. Confidence will have been gained from the fact that one of those wins came just prior to this tournament beginning in Turin at the Paris Masters against Alexander Zverev.
Strong serving will give Tsitsipas a chance in this tough looking Group, but his return game is not quite up to the standard he would have hoped on the hard courts. In each of the last two seasons, Stefanos Tsitsipas has won just 34% of return points played on the surface and he has broken in just shy of 19% of return games, but those returning numbers get considerably worse when facing top 10 opponents.
A couple of years ago Jannik Sinner was able to earn his place in the Tour Finals as an alternate, but he was not quite able to do enough to play in Turin last year. This year the Italian has improved again and will be well backed by the home fans, while the World Number 4 will be expecting to challenge for Grand Slam titles next year.
Titles have been won in Beijing and Vienna since the end of the US Open when Jannik Sinner was beaten by Alexander Zverev in an incredibly competitive match.
He also reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open before losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas, although Sinner earned a little bit of revenge with a win over this rival on an indoor hard court in Rotterdam. In both matches this year, Jannik Sinner has been the better player against Stefanos Tsitsipas and that underlines his improvement since losing to the Greek player at the Australian Open in 2022.
In those matches this year, Sinner has dominated the Break Point chances and he has a serve that should be good enough to contain the Stefanos Tsitsipas return threat.
A big difference between the players is that Jannik Sinner breaks in 29% of return games played on hard courts compared with the Tsitsipas mark already mentioned. It is also telling that Sinner has a 7-3 record against top 10 opponents on the hard courts in 2023 and, once again, the Italian has been much better in his returning in those matches compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas.
You can never tell how these indoor courts will react early in a tournament like the ATP Finals, but the edge has to be with Jannik Sinner with the home fans expected to be out to support him. While Stefanos Tsitsipas has obvious qualities as a player, the return game has long held him back and it could be the case in this opening Group match, one that could be pivotal to the eventual outcome with World Number 1 Novak Djokovic amongst the foursome.
Novak Djokovic-Holger Rune Over 21.5 games: After coming so close to defending his Wimbledon crown, Novak Djokovic did pick up the final Grand Slam title of the season in New York City and won three of the four majors played this season. He is now very close to setting a new mark for number of Grand Slam titles won by either a male or female player and not many would back against the World Number 1 doing that during the course of 2024.
He will likely go into most tournaments as the favourite and the defending Champion in Turin will be tough to beat here.
As Novak Djokovic has been reminding his rivals, he has not lost a match since the Wimbledon Final all the way back in July and has picked up a number of titles in that time. However, he was tested in the Paris Masters and had to dig deep to win a number of matches in that tournament, including against Holger Rune, the opening opponent for Novak Djokovic in this Group.
Three sets were needed and Holger Rune served very well on the day as he continues to show that he enjoys the match up with Novak Djokovic. The latter beat Rune pretty easily at the US Open in 2021, but the Dane is a much improved player now and their next three matches have all needed a deciding set.
Holger Rune has won two of those, including on an indoor hard court in Paris in 2022 before Novak Djokovic earned revenge earlier this month.
There is no doubt that Novak Djokovic is still the superior player and he has created a load more Break Points in their matches against one another than Holger Rune has managed to create. However, Rune is a player that feels he belongs at the highest level and that has seen him play the big points efficiently and do just enough to win a couple of those matches.
Even when they met earlier this month, Novak Djokovic only faced Break Points in one game and he was broken, while he had Break Points in four games but could only force the breakthrough once.
Overall it has been a down year for Holger Rune on the hard courts, despite cracking the top eight, and he has not shown much form in the second half of the year. That was until this past month on the indoor hard courts as Holger Rune's partnership with Boris Becker has begun with some positives.
Having Becker in his corner is a big help considering all of the time the German has had working with Novak Djokovic and that should help Holger Rune.
However, it should be said that Novak Djokovic has been playing at an incredible level on the hard courts in 2023 and you have to believe that will eventually show up in these head to head matches with Holger Rune. The energy and athleticism of the younger player has perhaps made things more difficult though and Holger Rune may be able to string together enough successes to see this match move over the total line.
Much will depend on Holger Rune serving as well as he did in the main in their meeting in Paris a few days ago, but the World Number 8 can do that and at least play his part in a competitive opener to this tournament.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic-Holger Rune Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
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