It is time to get the calculators out as we try and work out the final permutations in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals.
That means it might be a situation where we need to wait until the first Singles match is completed to be able to make a decent selection for the second Group match. It is the approach that I will be taking for the next two days and that is because there is a serious impact on motivations for players involved in the second match depending on the outcome of the first.
We have a first alternate in action on Thursday as Group A rounds off and there is still a chance that Novak Djokovic could be eliminated even if he wins two out of the three matches played. The only way he can feel good about his chances of progressing is by winning his match in straight sets, but Hubert Hurkacz can be awkward, while Jannik Sinner is not certain to progress even with two wins from two matches.
Check back in at around 5pm by which time I should have further thoughts about the second Singles match scheduled for the day.
Novak Djokovic-Hubert Hurkacz over 21.5 games: After suggesting he was being 'humble' in declaring himself favourite to win the ATP World Tour Finals for a seventh time, Novak Djokovic finds himself in a slightly awkward position.
The permutations have just gotten a little complicated after Holger Rune was awarded a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas after just three games were played on Tuesday. It does mean the final standings will only become clear at the end of the Evening Session, but all Novak Djokovic can do is focus on what he can control.
Winning this match will give him a chance of progressing and winning in straight sets would likely be enough to take Novak Djokovic through to the Semi Final. Even that will come down to the final scoreboard of the other Group match taking place, but the World Number 1 has to make sure he is energised and ready to compete against a fresh alternate who comes in for the injured Tsitsipas.
Hubert Hurkacz was very close to a top eight finish and a place in the ATP World Tour Finals on his own merits after winning a couple of titles between the US Open and Turin. He has a big serve and while he has not had many top 10 wins on the hard courts this season, Hubert Hurkacz has given those opponents something to think about with his serve able to keep him competitive.
It is something that Novak Djokovic will be aware of- he has won all six previous matches against the big Pole, but their clash at Wimbledon in July needed four tight sets to separate the players with Hurkacz serving incredibly well on the day.
He is going to have to do the same in Turin with Hubert Hurkacz likely to be very aware of the poor returning numbers produced against Novak Djokovic. However, while Hurkacz has been resting and practicing, Djokovic has had to play two matches that have lasted over three hours and that emotional and physical effort already produced could leave him lacking his full strength on Thursday.
This has to have some impact on this match, even if Novak Djokovic is likely going to have the majority of Break Points as he pushes enough returns back in play. In general, Hubert Hurkacz has found it much tougher to break through the Djokovic defences, even behind serve, and so you can understand why the World Number 1 is considered such a strong favourite.
However, a bit of tiredness may mean Novak Djokovic is not quite able to push for multiple Breaks of serve, while his own serve may be more vulnerable than normal, and that could see this match become the third involving Djokovic that surpasses the total games line set.
Jannik Sinner v Holger Rune: The immediate thought is how is a player going to recover after finally beating the World Number 1, but in a match that lasted over three hours and one in which Jannik Sinner had to expend a lot of energy.
It is a victory that has put the Italian on the brink of reaching the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals being played in Turin, but Jannik Sinner may still have some work to do.
That will largely depend on Novak Djokovic and whether he has won his match- if he has, Jannik Sinner will need to win at least a set against Holger Rune to progress and the expectation is that Sinner will be preparing knowing he needs to come out firing.
Losing a set would not eliminate Holger Rune after the three game win over Stefanos Tsitsipas- he would have preferred to win the match without a retirement as it could have bolstered his position ahead of this final Group match, but Holger Rune will know a win could be enough to take him through.
While things will be clear by the time the players enter the court, it is really the earlier match that could dictate motivations of the players involved.
Novak Djokovic winning in straight sets means Jannik Sinner would not at least a set, but a three set win for Holger Rune would mean having to get the calculators out as game won percentage takes over as the tie-breaker. The Dane will know that his three game win over Stefanos Tsitsipas could then work against him, especially as he 'only' held serve twice in that match, and things could become very complicated with Holger Rune perhaps taking too many chances.
The recommendation would certainly be to have a watching brief on how the other match has ended before really making a call in this one.
However, you do have to say that Jannik Sinner is the stronger hard court player out of the two involved in this match. He has lost both previous Tour matches against Holger Rune, including their sole hard court meeting, but the latter has not been at his most consistent best in the second half of the season while Sinner has been pushing forward and looking every bit the potential Grand Slam Champion in the making.
With a home crowd pushing him forward, the feeling is that Jannik Sinner will find a way to win this match and Holger Rune could wilt away when he feels the chances of progression are beyond him. However, there is too much riding on how the other Group match is played out and so any units for this selection will be updated on Thursday after the Novak Djokovic match is completed.
[UPDATE]: So Novak Djokovic did win in three sets.
It means he needs a favour from Jannik Sinner, but the Italian is through no matter what and this feels a big opportunity for Holger Rune.
There is far too much uncertainty for me in this match about the motivations of Jannik Sinner and the only good play may be backing Rune to win.
However, Holger Rune has been inconsistent over the second half of the year and the fans are going to be behind Sinner, which just makes this a match to watch.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Hubert Hurkacz Over 21.5 Games @ 1.66 Coral (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 6-1, + 7.64 Units (14 Units Staked, + 54.57% Yield)
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