As we approach Thanksgiving Day in the United States, attention will have turned to the NFL PlayOffs and there were more big injuries in Week 11 that has changed the outlook for teams.
One of those is the Cincinnati Bengals- many believed the Bengals could win the Super Bowl, but it has been a tough season with Joe Burrow struggling with injury early on. And just when the momentum looked to be finally building behind the Bengals, Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury last Thursday, which has left the Cincinnati Bengals looking well short in the AFC.
It doesn't help that they are the only team in the AFC North that doesn't hold a winning record and Jake Browning is extremely inexperienced at Quarter Back as he takes over from Burrow. It feels like a long shot for the Bengals to even make the PlayOffs right now, especially with six of the remaining seven teams on the schedule all holding a winning record.
Another year is also over for the New York Jets for all intents and purposes after a blowout loss at the Buffalo Bills.
Last week the decision to hold onto Zach Wilson as the starting Quarter Back, despite the Jets making it clear they did not feel he was ready in the off-season, was criticised. And it feels like the Jets have had enough too with Wilson pulled out in the Third Quarter of the blowout loss in Buffalo and now being relegated to third string Quarter Back as the Jets begin to think about getting Aaron Rodgers healthy and trying to go again in 2024.
The Seattle Seahawks will be concerned about Geno Smith at Quarter Back and will know that their season is likely resting on the outcome of any scans he has this week. Drew Lock looks way below the standards needed and the Seahawks face the San Francisco 49ers twice in the next three weeks when their chances of winning the NFC West will be decided.
If Smith is ruled out, the Seahawks may struggle to even make the Wild Card places, but otherwise they should be able to win enough games to earn one of those places.
Three more wins is expected to be enough to make the PlayOffs in the NFC, but Seattle may struggle to even do that if Lock is asked to spend considerable time at Quarter Back.
This will change on a week to week basis, but a very early look at how the PlayOffs could stand did bring up some surprises.
Looking ahead, I can see the NFC South being won by a team with a losing record, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may just sneak out the Division and host a Wild Card Game in January.
The Dallas Cowboys could be the team heading into that game with all of the pressure on the road team who should be able to secure as many as 12 wins, although still finishing behind the Philadelphia Eagles.
There is still a chance that the Detroit Lions could finish with the joint-best record in the NFC along with the aforementioned Eagles with a much more comfortable looking schedule of the two teams. Winning the Number 1 Seed could actually be determined by a big Week 17 game when the Lions visit the Cowboys, but we have seen how quickly an outlook can change for a team depending on injuries.
I have said for a while that the top teams, injury withstanding, in the NFC look pretty easy to pick out. The NFC South is competitive, but you could pick out at least five of the seven teams to make the post-season with some confidence.
My early look had a few more surprises in the AFC side of the PlayOffs- the Buffalo Bills miss out if the season plays out as predicted, while the Miami Dolphins do go on and win the AFC East.
Three of the AFC North teams find a way into the post-season, including the Cleveland Browns without Deshaun Watson, while the Houston Texans win the AFC South. CJ Stroud is playing at an extremely high level and the Texans have yet to host the Jacksonville Jaguars in what could be a Division decider, although I also expect the Jaguars to make the post-season.
Guessing the post-season picture ahead of Week 12 is always going to be hazardous, but there does feel like some surprises and upsets could be seen between now and the end of Week 18 and that is what makes it exciting for fans.
After another week of action, the top five in my standings are as follows:
1) Philadelphia Eagles (9-1): wins over two of the top AFC teams and the Dallas Cowboys and with a big game coming up against the Buffalo Bills keeps the Eagles at top spot.
2) Detroit Lions (8-2): they did not produce their best in Week 11, but the Lions won and look healthy.
3) San Francisco 49ers (7-3): a strong couple of wins have gotten San Francisco back on track and their main rivals in the NFC West might have lost their starting Quarter Back.
4) Baltimore Ravens (8-3): it is hard to know where the Ravens are considering they ended up crushing a Cincinnati team that played the second half without Joe Burrow, but Baltimore deserve credit for bouncing back in a big win.
5) Kansas City Chiefs (7-3): there is no doubt that it feels harsh dropping Kansas City several places after a loss to the Eagles, but they looked out of sync Offensively. The Chiefs will need to find their identity on this side of the ball if they are going to repeat as Champions, while finishing with the Number 1 Seed has to be the goal to try and make life that much easier.
There are some quality teams that are just outside of these places, but they will need to get through some tough challenges to enter the top five places.
The Dolphins need to beat a 'good' team, while the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans also have something to prove.
Dallas look strong, but again need to prove themselves in a big game, while the likes of Cleveland and Seattle could be down starting Quarter Backs and that does/will hold them back.
The NFL Week 12 schedule is split over four days with games to be played on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday.
Picks will be placed in this thread over the next couple of days with the momentum from Week 11 something we can look to build upon.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: It has been seven years since the Detroit Lions (8-2) last won a game on Thanksgiving Day, but they continue to open up the day of NFL Football.
In previous years, some have questioned whether the Lions deserve to hold onto a Thanksgiving Day Game, but that is not going to be the case in 2023 with the team only trailing the Philadelphia Eagles for the most wins in the NFC. They do have a healthy lead at the top of the NFC North, but the Lions will want to maintain some of their current momentum knowing that four of the next six games are going to be played on the road.
The Lions needed some late magic to overcome the Chicago Bears in Week 11 and there is a feeling that Detroit were perhaps looking past the team in the basement of their Division. Head Coach Dan Campbell and many of the players will know this game on Thursday gives them a big opportunity to impress a national audience and the Lions might have already been mentally checked in for this important outing.
It shows plenty of character that the Lions were still able to fight back and win that game in Week 11 and they are a similar priced favourite when Detroit host the Green Bay Packers (4-6) who have kept their slim hopes of earning a PlayOff spot alive after a win of their own on Sunday.
That came at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, and now Green Bay have to show they can take the show on the road having lost four in a row outside of Lambeau Field.
Jordan Love had a decent game against the Chargers, but this is expected to be much more challenging for the Quarter Back who threw 2 Interceptions in a home loss to the Detroit Lions earlier this season. The pressure may be on Love's shoulders with Aaron Jones picking up another injury on Sunday that is likely going to keep the Running Back from taking part.
The Quarter Back did have 246 passing yards and 1 Touchdown pass and 1 Touchdown run to his name in the home defeat to the Lions, but Jordan Love will know he needs to be much better if he is going to help his team pick up the upset.
He would be more comfortable with Aaron Jones behind him in the backfield, but either way it will be a big challenge for the Packers Offensive Line to establish the run. While the game is competitive, the feeling is that Green Bay will continue to pound the rock and look to shorten the game, while also keeping their Quarter Back in manageable down and distance.
However, it is not going to be an easy day for Jordan Love if he has to rely on his arm- while he has been playing a little better of late, Love will be under plenty of duress from the Detroit pass rush, while the Lions Secondary has been playing the pass effectively and may be able to tempt Jordan Love into a mistake or two, much as they did in the road win.
The game plan on the other side of the ball should be pretty simple for the Detroit Lions who have gotten a significant punch from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. It was Montgomery who pounded the Packers into oblivion earlier this season and he had a solid return game against the Chicago Bears in Week 11, while Gibbs has the ability to break out a big play every time he touches the ball.
With the Packers Defensive Line struggling to stop the run, Detroit should be able to rip off some big plays on the ground and they can keep the Offensive unit in very strong field position. Jared Goff had 210 passing yards in the road win over the Packers and he may not be asked to do much in this one aside from making sure the team is lined up and able to set up those big run plays.
Jared Goff is facing a Green Bay Secondary that has not given up a lot of passing yards in recent games, but that is also down to the fact that teams have been able to run the ball very well against them. It also should be noted the level of Quarter Back and overall Offensive units they have played in their last few games and Detroit are going to be significantly more challenging than the Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers.
The Lions have a lot more balance than those teams and that is going to create fits for the Green Bay Packers as Detroit chase a first win on Thanksgiving since 2016.
They failed to cover as a home favourite on Sunday, but we had the Chicago Bears with the points that day and the feeling is that the Lions will be a lot more focused from the off against the Green Bay Packers.
Jordan Love may have an opportunity for a backdoor cover, but the expectation is that the Lions can clamp down on the run and force the inexperienced Quarter Back to make the mistakes that gives the home team extra possessions. With the Offensive unit particularly effective at home, the Lions should be able to put up enough points to clear this spread and move right alongside the Philadelphia Eagles with nine wins, the joint-most in the NFL this season.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The rumours are gathering pace that this could be the last game that Ron Rivera is the Head Coach of the Washington Commanders (4-7). Losing twice to the New York Giants is simply not going to make management change their mind, while Rivera has to know the writing is on the wall after the Commanders traded away two key pass rushers and knowing that the Head Coach was not selected by the current ownership team.
If it wasn't for the short week with the Commanders set to play on Thanksgiving Day, the feeling is that Ron Rivera might have been fired this week. Instead, he is given one last chance to be given an opportunity to at least play out the season, while a loss for Washington may mean Ron Rivera has plenty of time to spend with his family on Thanksgiving weekend and beyond.
They are huge underdogs when visiting the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) who are still chasing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.
Playing a Divisional rival does make things tougher for any team, but the Cowboys have been crushing 'weak' opposition all season- they have beaten the Giants (twice), Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Rams and Panthers this season and only one of those wins has been by less than a 20 point margin.
As written above, Dallas have been crushing weak opponents and this is another for them on Thanksgiving.
Playing on this day has not usually resulted in big wins for the Cowboys, and they have lost plenty of Thanksgiving Day games in recent years, but this Washington Commanders team looks tailor made for a Dallas team that has played four home games this season and won by margins of 20, 35, 23 and 32 points.
They are being asked to cover a big spread, but Dak Prescott and the Cowboys Offensive unit should be able to score a lot of points in this one after seeing Tommy DeVito carve up the Commanders Secondary in Week 11 (that is Tommy DeVito the New York Giants Quarter Back, although Tommy DeVito, the infamous Goodfellas film character would have likely done the same).
Montez Sweat and Chase Young are gone so it is expected that Dak Prescott will have a relatively clean pocket to make his plays down the field, while the Cowboys are also likely going to be able to rip off some big gains on the ground. It should be a relatively 'easy' day in the office for Prescott operating from third and manageable whenever Dallas have the ball, while the play-action should see him have opportunities to make some big throws down the field and the Cowboys have every chance of getting close to the 40 point mark they are averaging at home.
The Dallas Defensive unit will certainly believe they can contribute and they have played much better at home than on the road.
In Week 11, the Cowboys gave Bryce Young all he could handle and they are likely going to put immense pressure on second year Quarter Back Sam Howell in this one.
Sam Howell is not helped playing behind a revolving door of an Offensive Line and continues to be hit hard whenever he takes a snap and looks to pass the ball. The key for the Commanders will be to try and keep this game competitive and continue to feed Bijan Robinson has much as they can, either running the ball directly or as a pass-catching Running Back coming out of the backfield.
Getting the ball into Robinson's hands as quickly as possible might see the Commanders stay in front of the chains, but any time they are in obvious passing situations, the Cowboys pass rush is going to be wreaking havoc in the backfield. Sam Howell may not have the worst passing numbers and there are some quality Receivers who can step up for him, but it is tough to continue to make plays with defenders hanging onto you, while the Cowboys Secondary are also playing at a pretty good level right now.
The pass rush has certainly made it easier for the Secondary and the Cowboys may be able to force a couple of turnovers that helps them pull away and cover what is a very big line for any NFL game, let alone a Divisional game.
Dallas are 14-6 against the spread as a home favourite under Mike McCarthy, while you have to question how much the Commanders team have left to give a Head Coach that is a lame duck to say the least.
However, you have to respect the fact that the Commanders could easily secure a backdoor cover in this game with the spread as big as it is. They are also 5-0 against the spread as the road underdog this season and have a couple of 3 point losses at Philadelphia and Seattle.
Divisional games usually are plenty motivating on their own, regardless of a season situation, but the Cowboys might be able to come out and make a big statement against a team that is perhaps lacking some direction. If the Commanders do feel that their Head Coach could be out of the door on Friday, they might check out of this one and the Dallas Defensive unit can make a couple of big plays that helps the home team secure a big victory.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Three losses in a row would worry some teams, but others will go out and make a big trade to bring a player like Chase Young. This comes twelve months after the San Francisco 49ers (7-3) traded for Christian McCaffrey and the team are firmly back on track after winning back to back games.
Over the next three weeks, the 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks (6-4) twice and the NFC West Division race will look much clearer by the end of those.
Bringing in Chase Young is clearly going to have a positive impact on the 49ers team, but the reality is that their three game losing run was largely down to injuries that the team had been dealing with. They went into a Bye, got healthier, and San Francisco have looked like a team that could win the Super Bowl once again.
There would also have been very little panic in the San Francisco locker room considering the team have reached the Super Bowl in 2019 and the NFC Championship Game in 2021 and 2022. That will be the minimum aim for Kyle Shanahan and his team again, while the 49ers may feel they deserve to have much better health going into January after their NFC Championship Game defeat in January 2023.
The 49ers look healthier than the Seattle Seahawks who could be without Geno Smith at Quarter Back and Kenneth Walker III at Running Back in a short week. Pete Carroll is still talking up the chances of Smith playing this game, but it feels like a long shot when you think of the injury he picked up on Sunday, one that meant he missed much of the second half before returning for one last drive as Smith tried to guide the Seahawks to an important win.
A missed Field Goal meant it was not worth the effort and Geno Smith is going to banged up at the very least.
Playing this pass rush is far from ideal for the Quarter Back and even if Smith starts, it has to be considered short odds that he will not be able to finish.
Drew Lock playing against this Defensive unit could be a bloodbath.
The Seahawks may look to run the ball and see if that can ease the expected pressure all around Geno Smith, but the Offensive Line have not been opening big holes of late and the 49ers may not respect the Quarter Back's ability to throw the ball at his usual level. That could see them load the line of scrimmage and force Seattle to try and keep the chains moving through the air.
Again, if Geno Smith was healthy, he might have a chance, but either Smith at less than 100% or Drew Lock throwing feels like a recipe for disaster.
If this game was played earlier in the season, some may have felt that the Seahawks Defensive unit could at least keep them in the contest, but that has looked less likely in recent games. There was always a feeling that the Seahawks were playing at an unsustainable level and San Francisco have the players that can expose the holes at all levels.
Christian McCaffrey and the Offensive Line should have a big day and they should be able to move the ball very efficiently on the ground. In the last three games, the Seattle Defensive Line have allowed teams to move the ball at 5.5 yards per carry so being able to clamp down on McCaffrey looks to be wishful thinking, while the Running Back is also expected to be a threat coming out of the backfield and making some plays in the passing game too.
Things are also looking up for Brock Purdy, even if there is still some feeling that he is a product of the Kyle Shanahan system. The Quarter Back won't care what people think and Purdy had a very good outing in Week 11 and the expectation is that he can pick up from where he left off.
Recent games has seen the Seattle pass rush lose some of its effectiveness and it will be tough to get to a Quarter Back who is likely going to be operating in front of the chains and who is willing to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.
Brock Purdy should also be able to exploit play-action to hit the likes of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle down the field and the expectation is that the 49ers can score enough points to clear this spread.
It would have been perfect if the line had dipped below a key number 7, but that looks unlikely now even if Geno Smith is cleared to suit up.
Any other decision and it is expected to perhaps rival the line the Cowboys are being asked to cover earlier in the day and so it might be worth locking in.
Seattle did have a decent record against San Francisco with five wins in six games played between November 2019 and December 2021, but the 49ers have won three in a row since then. All of those wins have been by at least eight point margins and there is every chance that San Francisco can extend that run in the late Thanksgiving Day game
You do have to respect the fact that the Seahawks are 3-1 against the spread as the home underdog since the beginning of last season, but Geno Smith's health is a massive concern for this one and the 49ers can pull away.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: When Amazon decided to offer the NFL.a huge amount of money so they could have the chance to broadcast a 'Black Friday' game, they had to be pretty happy with the game that was offered to them.
Both the broadcaster and NFL schedule makers would have anticipated this to be a leading AFC East Divisional clash, but instead of Aaron Rodgers, they will have Tim Boyle leading the New York Jets (4-6).
And instead of being a clash between two of the leading AFC East teams, Amazon will be featuring a Jets team that is barely clinging on to relevancy this season after losing three games in a row. Things had to change and the Zach Wilson era in New York looks to be officially over with the former First Round Draft Pick now the Number 3 Quarter Back on the depth chart behind Boyle and a recently signed Trevor Siemian.
Jets fans will be critical of the management for allowing this tough Defensive unit to be wasted by horrible play from the Quarter Back and the decision to not bring in another veteran after Rodgers went down with a season-ending injury looks to have backfired badly. Perhaps Tim Boyle is the answer, but his history in the NFL suggests not and he is going to have a tough day against the Miami Dolphins (7-3).
It was not the best performance from the Dolphins out of their Bye Week, but they did beat the Las Vegas Raiders and errors might have been down to the fact they were focusing on this Friday game. The Offensive unit made the mistakes, but Jalen Ramsey and the Defensive players more than did their part to beat the Raiders and are expected to shut down whatever kind of Offense the Jets try running with Boyle at Quarter Back.
The expectation will be that Tim Boyle has to lean on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook and try to establish the run, but that will not be easy against this Miami Defensive Line. Instead, much like Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle may need to get the ball quickly into the hands of Hall out in space and hope the Running Back can pick up some big yards after the catch and make that some form of running game for the team.
Asking Tim Boyle to throw against this healthier Miami Secondary seems too much, especially with the Jets Offensive Line banged up. It should give the Dolphins a chance to pin back their ears and really get after Boyle whenever the Jets are in obvious passing situations and any mistake from the Quarter Back is likely going to be punished in more New York turnovers.
Neutrals tuning in should get plenty more consistency out of the Miami Offensive unit, although it will be a test for Tua Tagovailoa considering this is where the strength of the Jets lies. Some may see the 32 points next to Buffalo's name and think the Defensive unit are not up to much, but it is asking too much for any Defense to be out on the field over and over and trying to protect short fields.
The Dolphins might be able to have some joy pushing the ball on the ground, but Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game needs to be cleaner than it was in Week 11. They are still putting up good numbers and the Offensive Line is giving their Quarter Back some time, but Tua will know that this New York Secondary is not one to take too many risks against as he looks to bring Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill into the action.
Play-action and moving pieces on the Offensive side of the ball can make life tough for a Defensive unit to slow down, and Miami are expected to have enough success on this side of the ball to be in a position to cover this spread.
Ultimately, the feeling is that Tim Boyle will make similar mistakes to Zach Wilson and end up putting the Jets Defensive unit in a bind.
It becomes a vicious circle with Boyle then likely to be asked to make more throws to try and keep the Jets in the game, which will lead to more mistakes and the Miami Dolphins can win and cover as long as they are not as generous with their own errors as they were in the victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.
A backdoor cover could be in play, but another big Defensive stand from the Dolphins can see them get over the line with a big road win against this Divisional rival.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The loss to the Cleveland Browns and a backup Quarter Back meant big changes this past week. Matt Canada has long been criticised as Offensive Co-Ordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) and was fired after the 13-10 loss to the Browns, as Mike Tomlin looks to find an answer to what has been a season-long problem.
Despite being Offensively challenged, the Steelers may still feel they are strong enough to earn a spot in the AFC Wild Card, although chasing down the Baltimore Ravens cannot be ruled out.
Back to back road games is not ideal for any team in the NFL and it is even tougher when you have to face Divisional rivals in both. That is the test for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they prepare to face the Cincinnati Bengals (5-5), a team who have had a bit of extra time to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 of the season.
They were beaten by the Baltimore Ravens in that game, but worse for the Bengals is the loss of Joe Burrow at Quarter Back. Not many have great expectations for Cincinnati with Jake Browning's inexperience taking over for Burrow, a Quarter Back who has won a National Championship at College level and played in the Super Bowl in the pros.
Unsurprisingly there are plenty of confident statements being made about Browning's preparation for his first start in the NFL, but this is a good Steelers Defensive unit in front of the young Quarter Back. The Bengals are also going to be without Tee Higgins this week, while Ja'Marr Chase is not at full health and that makes it difficult to believe in the Bengals.
Joe Mixon is going to be important for the Bengals, but running the ball against the Pittsburgh Defensive Line will be more difficult than usual if they do not respect the ability of Jake Browning behind Center. A few throws may open things up on the ground, but even at full health, the Bengals may not have been able to grind the ball on the ground.
This all means it will be up to Browning to show that he is capable of leading the team in place of Joe Burrow. Any doubt in his play is going to mean Jake Browning is dealing with the Pittsburgh pass rush behind shaky Bengals Offensive Line play, while the injury-hit Steelers Secondary can make enough plays to stall drives.
A big question will be on the other side of the ball and trying to work out if the firing of Matt Canada will spark the Steelers.
The game plan should be pretty easy for the Steelers- with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, they will look to establish the run against the Bengals Defensive Line which has allowed recent opponents to average 5.1 yards per carry. These two players have been combining for some big yards on the ground in recent games, although the Steelers fans are hoping to see better from Kenny Pickett at Quarter Back.
Kenny Pickett should be well protected, while the expected ground gains should mean play-action can be employed early as the Steelers look to attack this Cincinnati Secondary. George Pickens may not be available, but the Pittsburgh Steelers may choose to try and expose some of the Defensive holes that Cincinnati have displayed, while Pickett can also try and get the ball to Warren in space and hope the Running Back can make some big yards after the catch.
There should be a balance to the Steelers Offensive play compared to what we have seen in recent weeks as the players look to show that it was Matt Canada's calls, rather than their own execution of those plays, that have held them back.
Pittsburgh won here last year, in Overtime, and they do have a chance to bounce back from the disappointing Week 11 defeat to the Cleveland Browns. The Defensive unit may make one or two plays against the inexperienced Quarter Back that helps set up the Steelers with strong opportunities to score points in short field situations.
Backing the Steelers as a road favourite does not feel that good, but the uncertainty around the Cincinnati Bengals does make Pittsburgh the play.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: A third loss in the 2023 season is not going to derail the plans of the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3), but Head Coach Andy Reid and his Staff will know they have things to work on. They won the Super Bowl last season thanks to a very strong Offensive unit, but Patrick Mahomes has not been getting the same level of support from those around him and that proved costly in the home defeat on Monday Night Football to the Philadelphia Eagles.
This not the time for panic with a number of miscues that the Chiefs made easy to turn around, but they will want to put things right pretty quickly. They have been very strong Defensively and it is that side of the ball that will feel largely responsible for the eight wins produced, so it won't take a lot to really get the Kansas City Chiefs motoring again.
They are on a short week having played on Monday and with this Divisional game set for Sunday, while the Las Vegas Raiders (5-6) have looked better under interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce since firing Josh McDaniels. Both home games played under Pierce have resulted in wins, while Aidan O'Connell was picked off in the End Zone in the 7 point loss to the Miami Dolphins last week.
However, Antonio Pierce will know his team will need to be a lot stronger than they were in that loss to Miami- the scoreboard might not show it, but the Dolphins dominated that day and it was only a number of turnovers that prevented Miami from winning by a margin much more in line with the expectations of the oddsmakers.
This Divisional game poses a significant challenge for the Raiders Offensively and they do not match up that well with the Kansas City Chiefs. You have to imagine they are going to try and feed Josh Jacobs as much as possible and the Running Back may pick up some yards on the ground, but Las Vegas cannot afford to fall a couple of scores behind and then need their inexperienced Quarter Back to try and make plays against this tough Chiefs Secondary.
A fierce pass rush makes Kansas City very tough to throw against and Aidan O'Connell may have a banged up Davante Adams in the line up too. It will mean needing to get others going, but it should be pointed out that the Raiders have scored just 29 points in their last couple of games against Defenses playing to a similar level to where the Kansas City Chiefs are.
Las Vegas will be going into their Bye Week after this game so can leave it all on the field, but the feeling is that they are going to need another big turnover day to keep this one competitive.
The Dolphins made mistakes and there is a cleaning up process taking place at Kansas City, but the Chiefs will believe they have the capabilities of moving the ball up and down the field. They do need a Receiver or two to step up alongside Travis Kelce and give Patrick Mahomes a consistent player to throw to, but that should be 'easier' to manage with Isiah Pacheco likely going to pick up from where he left off against the Eagles.
Andy Reid is not someone who loves to run the ball over and over, but Pacheco should be able to pick up some big gains on the ground and keep the Kansas City Chiefs in front of the chains. That should be key in helping Patrick Mahomes earn a little more time behind the Offensive Line, especially with the Quarter Back comfortable being able to move around and allow Receiving routes to develop down the field.
He has not been at his best of late, but Mahomes has had his numbers dip because of the inconsistent play of his Receivers. That does raise some doubts about the Chiefs covering a spread like this one, but the feeling is that the defeat on Monday Night Football focuses minds and a much better game is played all around, especially on the Offensive side of the ball.
Losing has not been a familiar feeling for the Chiefs in recent years and over the last two seasons they are 4-1 against the spread when playing after a defeat. They are also 2-1 against the spread against AFC West rivals and the question mark about how many points the Raiders can put on the scoreboard certainly gives the road team enough of an edge to be backed in this one.
Hopefully the Receivers have removed the teflon from the gloves this week as they will need much stronger hands to ensure the backdoor cover is not possible for the home team.
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: The AFC looks a loaded and deep Conference in 2023 and earning a Wild Card spot is going to be a challenge. The feeling is that ten wins will likely be needed to do that and that means the Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) are beginning to feel the pressure after consecutive losses.
They earn a primetime spot in Week 12 of the 2023 season and Head Coach Brandon Staley is going to be hoping for a big reaction from his players after showing his frustration to the gathered reporters following the defeat to the Green Bay Packers.
It feels like it gets much tougher for the Chargers in Week 12 as they prepare to host the Baltimore Ravens (8-3) who will be hoping this game offers them a chance to extend their lead in the AFC North before entering their Bye Week.
A big win over the Cinncinati Bengals on Thursday Night Football does mean the Ravens have had a few extra days of preparation time for this road game. That will help as the Offensive unit looks to find a way to replace Mark Andrews after the Tight End picked up a season ending injury in that win.
It takes away a big target from Lamar Jackson, who is also going to be looking forward to the Bye Week so he can rest up. The Quarter Back is not going to be sitting out this week and a late Bye can be beneficial with many believing the Ravens to be a genuine Super Bowl contender.
Lamar Jackson helps the Ravens run game with the threat he poses and big gains could be ripped off by Baltimore against this banged up Chargers Defensive Line which is allowing recent teams to pick up yards at 4.6 per carry. If they are not able to slop down Jackson, Gus Edwards and Keaton Michell, it is going to be a very long day for the Los Angeles Chargers on this side of the ball.
Slowing down the Ravens is going to be tough and that should mean Lamar Jackson is able to make a few big plays down the field, even without Andrews in the line up.
Isaiah Likely has flashed potential and will be getting a lot more targets, while it will be music to the ears of Lamar Jackson that the Chargers will be without Joey Bosa. Playing out of third and manageable should also mean Jackson has that touch more time to hit his Receivers against this Los Angeles Secondary which has allowed plenty of yards through the air.
An expectation of seeing a balanced Offensive unit makes the Ravens dangerous, while their Defense continues to play hard through the injuries.
While there have been some holes on the Baltimore Defensive Line that has seen teams pick up some big gains on the ground, the Los Angeles Offensive Line have been inconsistent. Recent games have been stronger as they look to get Austin Ekeler going as a runner, rather than a pass-catching Running Back, and it is key for the Chargers to have success establishing the run.
Moving the ball through Justin Herbert's arm and the banged up Receiving corps he is throwing too will be very difficult considering the level the Ravens Secondary have been operating at. Marlon Humphrey could be back for the Ravens with the extra time he has had between Week 11 and Week 12, while the Chargers have been inconsistent throwing the ball as the likes of Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have moved onto the Injured Reserve, while Keenan Allen is fighting through the pain.
An inability to establish the run or being forced into obvious passing situations will mean Justin Herbert has to face a powerful Baltimore pass rush and it looks like a game that the Ravens should be able to dictate on both sides of the ball.
While the Ravens have not exactly been great road favourites to back, it should be noted that the Los Angeles Chargers have a losing record against the spread as the home underdog with Brandon Staley at the helm. There is a growing feeling that Staley is about to be fired as the Head Coach of the Chargers too and that can see players just drop their heads, while it is far from ideal to be distracted before facing this strong looking Baltimore team.
Covering on the road will not be easy, but Baltimore can be asked to lay the points over Thanksgiving Weekend where the road favourites have been good through Thursday and Friday.
MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys - 12.5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Kansas City Chiefs - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)
Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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