With a second week of the College Football Rankings released this week, the pressure is beginning to ramp up in November as the margin for error narrows all the time.
At the moment we look to have at least four unbeaten Conference Champions that could potentially fill the top four PlayOff places, but this can change very quickly. The feeling is that there will be at least one team that will make the post-season and play for the National Championship with a loss on the board, but I don't envy the Committee when it comes to making their final selections.
Next season will be different with twelve teams sent to the PlayOffs and that will likely produce a very good PlayOff format for the College Football fans to enjoy. You could make a case for up to eight teams to be good enough to win the National Championship this season too, and there will be an argument for those that miss out on the top four so maintaining momentum is going to be important for all chasing the ultimate prize as the regular season winds down before the Championship Games are set.
Virginia Cavaliers @ Louisville Cardinals Pick: There are some 'one loss' teams floating around with a genuine feeling that they can still do enough to impress the PlayOff Committee and have an opportunity to win the National Championship. Unfortunately for the Louisville Cardinals (8-1), they are playing in a weak Power 5 Conference and the defeat to the Pittsburgh Panthers will be difficult to shake off, even if the team are able to move forward and win the ACC Championship.
They are on course to finish behind the Florida State Seminoles in the Conference, but the Cardinals cannot think too far ahead. The game against the Miami Hurricanes is going to be important, but this week the Louisville Cardinals are hosting the Virginia Cavaliers (2-7) who have been more competitive in recent weeks than their overall record would suggest.
The Cavaliers are 1-4 within the Conference, but they have upset the North Carolina Tar Heels who were unbeaten before facing Virginia. They were then able to push the Hurricanes all the way in a narrow defeat before the blowout loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Virginia will arrive in this game knowing all of the pressure is on their hosts.
Scoring points against this Cardinals Defensive unit is going to be very difficult, especially as Louisville have picked up their level after the upset loss to Pittsburgh.
Since that defeat, Louisville have only given up 3 points combined in wins over the Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Tech Hokies, while the Cardinals are 5-0 against the spread at home this season. Covering a line like this one is going to be tough, but the Cardinals have to believe that they have the strength on the Defensive side of the ball to do that by clamping down on what Virginia are able to do with the ball in their hands.
It all starts up front for the Cardinals who have a Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run and force teams to become extremely one-dimensional. Everything becomes more difficult when you think of the troubles Virginia have had in running the ball and the Offensive Line have also been one that have struggled to protect the Quarter Back.
Anthony Muskett has been lost to an injury to make things that much more troublesome for the Virginia Cavaliers and that means an inexperienced Quarter Back will have to play on a short week. In recent games, the Cardinals Secondary have stepped up their play with the control the Defensive Line have had up front, while back up Quarter Back Anthony Colandrea is going to have to be careful with the ball.
As impressive as the Cardinals have been Defensively, the Offensive unit have been a touch inconsistent and that is perhaps holding this team back. It's a funny statement when you think Louisville have won eight of nine games this season, but they have had some narrow wins in that time and covering this number will need the Offense to step up and put up plenty of points.
After seeing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets crush Virginia on the ground, the Louisville Cardinals are going to expect to pick up some big gains when running the ball. That is important to keep the team balanced on this side of the ball, and it will give Quarter Back Jack Plummer plenty of time in the pocket with the Cardinals expected to move the chains much more consistently than their opponent.
On the face of things, covering this mark would be tough, but the Cardinals are expected to make some big plays Defensively to create short fields. With Louisville likely to follow Georgia Tech with some huge plays on the ground, they have a chance to at least impress some members of the PlayOff Committee with a big road win to move into a position to play in the ACC Championship Game.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: Style points begin to take on some importance in November in College Football with the four team PlayOff in mind and that is likely to change when the post-season is expanded to twelve teams in 2024. For now it is a factor and the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) will be looking to impress having been given a Number 8 Ranking in the latest release from the PlayOff Committee.
In reality, Nick Saban is very experienced and he will know that the Crimson Tide will be hard to keep out of the top four if they are able to run the table and win the SEC Championship Game. That would likely mean holding wins over the likes of the LSU Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs and a one loss SEC Champion can overcome the disappointing loss to the Texas Longhorns.
That defeat for the Crimson Tide will be all the stronger if the Longhorns can maintain their current path and win the Big 12 Championship, but Alabama are in control of their own destiny. Even then, people will be looking at them in Week 11 and wonder how they will perform after the strong win over the LSU Tigers and against a team that the Georgia Bulldogs beat by 38 points.
Head Coach Mark Stoops will point out that his Kentucky Wildcats (6-3) team were beaten in Athens by the Bulldogs, but they have also suffered home losses to the Missouri Tigers by 17 points and the Tennessee Volunteers by 6 points. Despite that, the Wildcats are 15-6 at home since 2021 and they did beat the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 10 to bounce back from the three game losing run that has dropped Kentucky to 3-3 in the SEC.
Ray Davis is going to be an important figure in this game for the Wildcats as they look to establish the run against the Alabama Defensive Line. This is key to making things a little easier for Devin Leary at Quarter Back, who should be healthy despite picking up an eye injury in the win over the Bulldogs.
The expectation is that the Wildcats can have put together some Offensive successes by on the ground and through the air, but staying out of obvious passing situations is key. It will mean the Alabama pass rush is just slowed down for long enough for Devin Leary to try and orchestrate an upset, while being in front of the chains should mean Leary can avoid the turnovers that could prove to be very costly.
Kentucky will need to move the ball Offensively as they are likely going to be facing an improved Alabama Offensive unit that has upped their level in each passing week. The Wildcats averaged over 20 points per game in their three game losing run to Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee, but getting to that mark may feel like enough points to be competitive against the Crimson Tide.
That will also mean the Defensive unit has made some plays, although this is a team that allowed those three teams mentioned to average over 40 points per game. The Wildcats are also facing a Quarter Back in Jalen Milroe who is playing at a level that Nick Saban demands of a player in that position after pulling him out of the loss to the Longhorns earlier this season.
Jalen Milroe is a threat to run the ball, but has gotten the respect of opponents with his arm too and that balance could be tough for the Wildcats to deal with. The Crimson Tide's Offensive Line have struggled this season, but they have looked much happier in run blocking and this is a team that has the potential to dominate the trenches and make things easier all around for their Offense.
The Crimson Tide are 9-3 against the spread as the road favourite since 2021, and they have covered in all three games in that situation this season. Alabama are also 5-1 against the spread in their six SEC games played this season, while Nick Saban's team are 55-36-2 against the spread in Conference games as a double digit favourite.
As much as the Kentucky Wildcats deserve respect, they have failed to cover as an underdog in both situations this season against Georgia and Tennessee. They have also struggled when facing Ranked opponents over the last couple of seasons and the Alabama Crimson Tide can keep the momentum behind them with another win by a couple of Touchdowns this weekend.
Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Off field issues continue to cloud over the Michigan Wolverines (9-0) and the allegations of 'sign stealing' have to be answered sooner than later. However, it looks increasingly unlikely that a decision will be made before the end of the season and the Wolverines are still set as the Number 3 Ranked team with their own destiny in their hands.
Much is going to come down to the big rivalry game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at the end of the month, but it is important for the Wolverines to maintain an unbeaten run through to that game.
Next up is a difficult looking game against the Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) who are still Ranked in the top ten having only suffered a narrow loss to the Buckeyes. Penn State were only 8 point losers on the road at the Buckeyes, but they were well beaten in the yardage battle and the Nittany Lions will have to find a way to move the ball if they are going to upset a very good looking Michigan team.
Being at home should help, although the Nittany Lions are just 5-4 against the spread as the home underdog with James Franklin as their Head Coach.
A big issue for the Penn State Nittany Lions is going to be trying to establish the run and make things a bit more comfortable for Drew Allar, who was restricted to 191 passing yards against the Ohio State Buckeyes and had a 18/42 completion rate that day. It was a tough day running the ball for the Nittany Lions against the Buckeyes and they are not expected to get a lot change out of the Michigan Defensive Line in Week 10.
That's not to say throwing the ball is going to be any easier and Drew Allar will be under pressure if the team is behind the chains. After scoring just 12 points in the loss to the Buckeyes, the Penn State Nittany Lions may have a few issues doing much better in this one against what many may feel is the best Defensive unit in the nation and certainly in the Big Ten.
What will give the Nittany Lions a chance of the upset is their own Defensive Line which has been a strength of the team and who largely clamped down on the Ohio State Buckeyes on the ground. Last season Penn State were bashed up on the ground by the Wolverines, but they are expected to have more success in this one and that will shift the pressure onto Michigan Quarter Back JJ McCarthy.
However, McCarthy is in the running for the Heisman Trophy and the Wolverines will have noted that Kyle McCord, the Buckeyes Quarter Back, was able to throw for 286 yards in the win over Penn State. JJ McCarthy has found a very good rhythm with his Receivers, while the Nittany Lions Secondary have had some holes exploited in recent games.
The Nittany Lions can disrupt things with their pass rush, but the feeling is that JJ McCarthy and the Michigan Wolverines will make the plays that ultimately leads to the road win.
Michigan have dominated the opponents this season- some will say because of the sign stealing allegations- but they are facing a Ranked team for the first time. Over the last couple of years, Michigan are 5-3 against the spread against those opponents, while they have beaten the Nittany Lions twice in a row including the blowout at home last season.
Playing on the road is a much different challenge, but the feeling is that the Wolverines can make enough Defensive plays to restrict the Penn State Nittany Lions and they can win this one by a similar margin as the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ UCF Knights Pick: The early upset loss to the South Alabama Jaguars is going to be next to impossible for the Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-2) to overcome as far as the PlayOff Committee are concerned. They are Ranked at Number 22 this week and that despite the fact the Cowboys have improved to 5-1 in Big 12 play and having earned a fourth upset win in Conference play when beating the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 10.
That win will have really satisfied the entire fanbase considering the Sooners are going to be moving into the SEC at the end of this season and the long Bedlam Rivalry is going to be off the schedule for the foreseeable future. It is one that the players will have enjoyed, but Head Coach Mike Gundy is trying to 'move on' with the Cowboys still looking to earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Wins over the Sooners, Kansas Jayhawks and Kansas State Wildcats means the Cowboys have the inside track to earning a spot in the Championship Game, but they cannot afford any slip ups. They are going to be favoured in each of the remaining three games, but two of those are going to be played on the road beginning with this one at the UCF Knights (4-5).
After moving into the Big 12 Conference, the UCF Knights have just struggled to lift their level until they beat fellow new members of the Conference last week against the Cincinnati Bearcats. You have to admit that the Knights have been involved in a couple of competitive losses in the Conference, but they are likely going to need at least one upset if they are going to reach the six win mark to become Bowl eligible having produced a 1-5 record in Big 12 play.
UCF will be feeling much better with a first Big 12 win on the board, and they will know that this Oklahoma State Cowboys team is far from perfect Defensively. In fact, the Knights look to match up really well with the Cowboys on this side of the ball having looked to the Offensive Line to break open big holes for RJ Harvey and the running game.
The Knights Offensive Line have done that effectively in recent games and Harvey has been afforded the opportunity to produce four straight 100 yard games on the ground. He will find some big spaces in this game too against a Cowboys Defensive Line that has allowed an average of 217 yards per game on the ground in their last three games and those have been earned at 5.4 yards per clip.
This has meant the Cowboys have been able to produce little pressure up front and teams have been able to throw the ball efficiently against them too. However, Oklahoma State have to be give some respect for the way the Secondary have been able to jump in front of some of the throws and force Interceptions, while the Cowboys have also been a team that have targeted the ball even when teams are moving the chains against them and Fumbles have been the outcome.
Turnovers will be key in a game like this one where both Offensive units will be confident that they can move the ball and the Cowboys are going to have considerable success too. Credit has to be given to the UCF Offensive Line for the way they have produced in the trenches, but the Defensive Line has not been nearly as effective at stopping the run and now have to face Ollie Gordon II who is averaging almost 166 yards per game on the ground on his own during this five game winning run put together by the Cowboys.
It is a running threat that is going to negate the UCF pass rush and it has also made things very comfortable for Quarter Back Alan Bowman who should have time in the pocket. He can exploit play-action to hit the Knights down the field and he has been careful with the ball, which is important considering the power the Cowboys have produced on the ground.
Both teams will rip off some big gains on the ground, but the Oklahoma State Cowboys have the momentum and the UCF Knights have just come up short more often than not in the Big 12.
The spread will be difficult to overcome, but you have to feel the Cowboys might be able to make one or two more plays Defensively compared with the UCF Knights and an extra possession or two should be enough. They are coming off a big, emotional win, but Oklahoma State have the Big 12 Championship Game to aim for and that should keep them focused, while they are 3-0 against the spread in their last three games as the road favourite.
UCF have not been a home underdog this season, but have lost to the Baylor Bears and West Virginia Mountaineers in front of their fans. They will feel the pressure is all on the road team, although the feeling is that the Knights may just come up short in a Conference game again.
Miami Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: They remain in the current top four of the College Football Rankings, but the Florida State Seminoles (9-0) know there is still very little margin for error. They had to battle for their win over the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 10, although the Seminoles got within a First and Goal of securing another cover.
Getting into the College Football PlayOff in the four team format is still going to be a challenge for the Florida State Seminoles who will feel they are not going to be as appealing as a one loss Conference Champion. They are unbeaten, but that means there is pressure to win their remaining four games without losing a game and there are some potential threats yet to face.
First up is the Miami Hurricanes (6-3), one of two inter-State rivals that still have to face the Seminoles.
It has not been a great season for the Hurricanes, and one far below the expectation level around the team, but they have a chance to give their fans something to smile about by knocking off a rival. This won't make up for 2023, but it will give the Miami Head Coach Mario Cristobal some breathing room as he perhaps thinks about making a Quarter Back change.
Tyler Van Dyke has been banged up and his Head Coach believes that has contributed to his poor form at Quarter Back with the Hurricanes losing half of their last four games. Emory Williams would get the call if Van Dyke is benched and this is going to be a tough match up for him, even if Williams had the keys to the Offensive unit when the Hurricanes beat the Clemson Tigers.
He was not tasked with winning that game, but managing it, and Emory Williams will likely be asked to do the same in this one if he is starting for the Hurricanes. The problem for Miami is that they are not likely to have much success running the ball against this Seminoles Defensive Line and Emory Williams will then be tasked with throwing into a Secondary that has kept opponents to under 200 passing yards on average this season.
The Seminoles have to be confident in their Defensive unit, but they will also feel this game comes at good time for the Offense.
Florida State may not be able to run the ball as they would hope, even with Jordan Travis at Quarter Back with his dual-threat ability. However, Travis is likely going to have two big Receivers back for this game after Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman sat out last week and they return at a time when facing a Miami Secondary that has picked up injuries.
This should give Florida State a real advantage in the passing game and it may be the difference in this important Conference game as the Seminoles show off their abilities to play in the PlayOffs. The Offensive Line has protected Jordan Travis so the Miami pass rush may not have the impact hoped and the Seminoles can put up a strong home win.
The Hurricanes have not had a good season and they are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games against top five Ranked opponents. They are also 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as a double digit underdog, while the Florida State Seminoles are 3-1 against the spread in four games as the home favourite.
Last season the Florida State Seminoles embarrassed the Miami Hurricanes in a 42 point win on the road so there should be plenty of motivation in the Miami camp. However, they look short on both sides of the ball and the Seminoles can really produce a win with plenty of style points attached to it in Week 11 of the season.
MY PICKS: Louisville Cardinals - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 20.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon State Beavers - 20.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)
Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)
Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)
Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)
Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
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