There are still six regular season weeks to be played though and so plenty can still go wrong, which means the focus has to remain to ensure a positive return at the end of the 2023 season. The PlayOffs can always be a bit more difficult to manage, but the hope is that a solid return in the regular season will push some momentum into those selections in the run to the Super Bowl.
Thanksgiving Weekend is certainly seen as the benchmark for the focus to turn to those PlayOff runs, although we do have a smaller Week 13 schedule with a number of teams having a late Bye Week. Even then, the games increase in importance and we will begin to see some real separation as far as Divisional titles and the coveted Number 1 Seed in each Conference is concerned.
The AFC continues to produce a mass of teams chasing the Wild Card spots, but the same could be said for the NFC after the likes of Seattle and Minnesota were beaten in Week 12. There are certainly fewer contenders in the NFC, but no one should doubt the quality of those at the top of that Conference and we should get some huge games between now and the Super Bowl in February.
Last week I wrote about the way the potential PlayOff picture could shape up in both Conferences, but also stated that things change dramatically week after week.
The feeling that the Houston Texans could win the AFC South was hugely dependent on beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12, but that was not the case and now the Jaguars are a team targeting the Number 1 Seed in the AFC.
The Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions suffered big losses in Week 12 that will dent some of their ambitions- the Browns looked like a Wild Card contender, but another Quarter Back injury has dampened their expectations after losing in Denver, while the Lions hopes of finishing with the top Seed in the NFC look to be over after the defeat to the Green Bay Packers.
In saying all that, the suggestion that the Buffalo Bills would miss the PlayOffs looks much stronger after another defeat and they will need this Bye Week desperately. Things have to figured out very quickly with games against Kansas City and Dallas in Week 14 and 15 respectively, especially in the AFC where a number of teams are ahead of the 10th placed Bills with games running down.
Following the results in Week 12, the top five in my standings are as follows:
1) Philadelphia Eagles (10-1): Overtime drama saw the Eagles become the first team with double digit wins for the season. They host the 49ers this week and a win would put the Philadelphia Eagles in a very strong position to finish with the top Seed in the NFC.
2) San Francisco 49ers (9-3): they look like the team they were earlier in the season and are in complete control of the NFC West. Revenge and redemption will be on the minds as they travel East to face the Eagles, while a win would put San Francisco in a strong position to earn the top Seed in the Conference instead.
3) Baltimore Ravens (9-3): it was not the most convincing Offensive showing, but the Defensive unit is for real and going to get healthier through the Bye Week. The last four regular season games will get the Baltimore Ravens into PlayOff mode pretty quickly and they could be the team to beat in the AFC.
4) Kansas City Chiefs (8-3): the defending Super Bowl Champions will have something to say about that and looked better in Week 12. The Chiefs also look to have a very manageable end to the regular season and have to be favourites to earn the top Seed in the AFC and all roads going through Arrowhead would make them favourites for another Super Bowl appearance.
5) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3): a case could be made for Detroit, Miami or Dallas to occupy this position, but the Jaguars were most impressive in Week 12 with an important road win over the surging Houston Texans. The Dolphins and Cowboys are yet to beat 'good teams', which means they are still in the 'show me' category, while the Lions loss to the Green Bay Packers was really disappointing.
The top two face off in an incredibly good looking game on Sunday afternoon, while the Ravens are on a Bye Week. All three will still be involved in the top five next week, while only upsets could see Kansas City and Jacksonville knocked out (both are big favourites in Week 13).
Assuming those two avoid the upsets, those five teams will likely be my top five next week too, perhaps in a different order. However, that is when things will really begin to be shaken up with Philadelphia and San Francisco facing big Divisional games, while Kansas City and Jacksonville have tough Conference games on deck.
It may also be a time when the PlayOff picture really begins to clear up, but it is important for the top teams to not overlook Week 13 opponents to the big games ahead.
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Both of these teams played Divisional rivals on Thanksgiving Day and both have a very important Divisional game coming up in Week 14, but there is plenty to keep the Dallas Cowboys (8-3) and Seattle Seahawks (6-5) focused on one another on Thursday Night Football.
Instead of benefiting from a few extra days off, these two teams are playing on a 'regular' schedule between games, albeit on Thursday rather than the more traditional Sunday. That may actually be good news for the Cowboys and Seahawks who play the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers respectively in Week 14 and each team is trailing those Divisional leaders by two games.
Winning on Thursday Night Football would mean an opportunity for the Cowboys or Seahawks to really enjoy Sunday evening when the Eagles and 49ers take lumps out of one another and Dallas and Seattle will be hoping an opportunity to close the gap completely to those Divisional leaders is in front of them in Week 14.
Looking ahead would be a mistake and the teams are meeting in Week 13 after different Thanksgiving Day experiences- the Cowboys blew out the Washington Commanders, while the Seahawks suffered a blow out defeat to the very strong looking 49ers.
Pete Carroll has to be concerned with the run of games coming up for Seattle and he will be hoping that Geno Smith is healthier with another week of recovery under his belt. The Quarter Back had a rough day in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers, but Smith is not going to have things any easier against this Dallas Cowboys Defensive unit.
The Offensive Line has been struggling and Kenneth Walker III is set to miss another game at Running Back so even the hope of being able to establish the ground attack may be beyond the Seahawks. It is almost vital for them to be able to run the ball if only to slow down this Cowboys pass rush that is likely going to be in Geno Smith's any time he drops back to throw down the field.
Last week the 49ers pressure made it next to impossible for the Seahawks to get much going through the air and the feeling is that this game is going to look very similar on that side of the ball. It has to be a big concern for the Seattle fans with the team dropping back to back games to fall into a closer Wild Card race than may have been expected a couple of weeks ago.
We may get a similar look on the Offensive side of the ball to what we saw out of Seattle on Thanksgiving Day and a major concern is that the Defense is not going to be able to slow down a Cowboys team that put up 45 points in their own Turkey Day outing.
All season we have seen Dallas dominate at home and they are playing with a strong rhythm under Mike McCarthy's guidance since he took over the play-calling on this side of the ball. They are unlikely to be distracted by the upcoming game against the Philadelphia Eagles as that will be almost meaningless unless Dallas can win this one and the feeling is that the Cowboys will be able to do what they like when they have the ball in their hands.
Dak Prescott is seemingly never that far away from throwing in a really poor outing, but he will be able to rely on this Offensive Line to give him time in the pocket. The Dallas Offensive Line has also been very strong at opening up holes for Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle, while both players are also going to be a key part of the passing game.
Earlier in the season the Seahawks Defense looked to be playing at a high level, but they have found things more difficult of late and this Dallas team are capable of finding a balance that is tough to stop.
As long as Dak Prescott remains focused and does not have his multi-turnover kind of day, the Quarter Back should be able to work out of a clean pocket and the Cowboys can keep the chains moving with consistency throughout this contest.
Dallas have remained perfect as the home favourite with a 5-0 record against the spread and they can match the kind of dominant wins that the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have handed out to Seattle.
The Defensive unit can step up and make some big plays in the second half to ensure the Cowboys are able to pull away and they are expected to win by double digits on Thursday Night Football.
Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders Pick: After the crushing loss at the Dallas Cowboys, Ron Rivera may have feared that his time as Head Coach of the Washington Commanders (4-8) was going to come to an end. That is still looking likely at the end of the season, but Rivera remains in charge, even if he has been told that friend and Defensive Co-Ordinator Jack Del Rio had to be let go.
It was never going to be easy for any Defensive Co-Ordinator as soon as the Commanders began to trade away key pass rushers, which has exposed the Washington Secondary.
Now they have to face the Miami Dolphins (8-3) and the high-powered Offensive unit that is run by Mike McDaniels, although recent weeks have been tougher for the Dolphins. They were never going to sustain the early season numbers, but Miami have got room for improvement on recent outings and they are simply not as effective on the road as they are at home.
In saying that, Miami did win on the road last week at the New York Jets and they will have a balanced approach that is going to be very difficult for the Washington Commanders to deal with.
Raheem Mostert has shown he can power the running game for the Dolphins and he should help establish the run against this Washington Defensive Line that has struggled. With a pass rush not nearly as effective without Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington's Secondary have really been having problems against any Quarter Back they have faced, and Tua Tagovailoa should be able to get Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle very much into the action.
The Miami Dolphins are not producing their very best Offensively, but this is the chance to 'get right' and make sure they are keeping the pressure on those below them in the AFC East.
However, the wins have kept coming from the Dolphins without big Offensive performances thanks to an improving Defense under Vic Fangio's guidance. They have gotten healthier, even if they have lost Jaelan Phillips for the season, and the Dolphins have looked like they can produce enough on this side of the ball to really believe they could make a run to the Super Bowl.
A statement can be made in this game against a Washington team struggling in all aspects of their Football.
Sam Howell has not been helped by this Offensive Line, who will also have a difficult time establishing the run against the improving Miami Defensive Line. That puts even more pressure on the Quarter Back and he is going to be facing a Miami Secondary that has made plenty of big plays, just ask Tim Boyle from Week 12.
Those plays could give the Dolphins those extra possessions that will be needed to cover a number like this one on the road, and Miami have the capabilities to do that.
A big road favourite is not an ideal team to be backing, but this is a good spot for the Miami Dolphins to have a big game on both sides of the ball and they can win and cover.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There has to be some frustration with the surprisingly poor performance on Thanksgiving Day, but the Detroit Lions (8-3) remain in control of the NFC North. Head Coach Dan Campbell will have been looking forward to this road game, but he will have spent a few extra days with his players to prepare them to bounce back from the home defeat to the Green Bay Packers.
They are facing the New Orleans Saints (5-6) in Week 13 and the home team are still very much in contention for a place in the post-season, despite the losing record.
The NFC South has proven to be one of the weaker Divisions in the NFL with all four teams holding a losing record and the Saints are sitting alongside the Atlanta Falcons with their 5-6 mark. The defeat to the Falcons in Week 12 will have really hurt New Orleans, but they will be playing at home in this one and that has to give them a chance to bounce back.
However, the Saints are dealing with a huge amount of injuries and have an important Divisional game on deck, which may take some of the focus away from this game. New Orleans will be keen to win, but playing without a number of key performers on both sides of the ball makes it very difficult to imagine how the Saints can keep themselves competitive.
The likes of Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Kendre Miller are all likely to be missing from the New Orleans Offensive unit, while Alvin Kamara may have to be used more effectively in the passing game. The Running Back is very capable, but he may not have a lot of success pounding the ball against the Lions Defensive Line and it becomes tougher for Derek Carr at Quarter Back without some of the names mentioned.
While he can target Kamara and Michael Thomas, being without Olave and Shaheed is a tough situation for Derek Carr. There have been some problems in the Lions Secondary in recent games and they were really taken aback by the Green Bay passing attack on Thanksgiving Day, but it is going to be very hard for Derek Carr to replicate that with back up Receivers on the field.
However, the Saints are going to have some opportunities to move the ball as long as they can avoid the turnovers that have swing games against them.
It is also going to be a difficult day trying to slow down the Detroit Offense, which is going to want to make a point after the defeat to the Packers when Jared Goff was guilty of really hurting his team with turnovers.
Jared Goff should be playing out of a clean pocket, but the Quarter Back will also benefit from being able to hand the ball to David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs who should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground behind the Lions Offensive Line. In recent games, the Saints have not been able to stop the run very effectively and Montgomery and Gibbs should be able to showcase their tandem powers at the Running Back position.
This is going to open up some of the passing lanes for Jared Goff and the Lions can recover from their defeat on Thanksgiving Day.
Road favourites had a very good Week 12, but it is not easy to win by big margins in hostile environments, although the extra preparation time between games is an advantage for Dan Campbell's team. The Lions have been better at home over the last twelve months, but playing in an indoor Stadium is not going to be a problem for them in Week 13 and they can win and cover here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Even the return of Kyler Murray has not been able to turn things around for the Arizona Cardinals (2-10) and this season cannot end quickly enough. They are set to earn a high Draft Pick, although the players on the roster will want to be kept around for a rebuild, while also trying to play spoiler for those chasing post-season spots.
Games against Divisional rivals will mean a lot more to the players in general, and you have to question where Arizona will find the motivation to win this game. For starters they are facing a non-Conference opponent and the Cardinals are playing in an early slot on Sunday afternoon.
They are also facing a Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) team looking to prove that former Offensive Co-Ordinator Matt Canada was the problem having won their first game since Canada was fired. It was a very strong Offensive effort to beat the Cincinnati Bengals and the Steelers have a good chance to back that up against this Cardinals Defense which has been struggling.
A big problem for the Cardinals is that the Defensive Line have not been able to clamp down on the run at all- with that in mind, you have to think this is a really bad match up for Arizona when facing Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris and this Pittsburgh Offensive Line which has opened up some big running lanes in recent games.
Kenny Pickett has been banged up at Quarter Back, but he should be able to operate out of a relatively clean pocket if the Steelers are running the ball as they should be able to do. He can then target his Receivers from third and manageable spots to keep the chains moving, while Pickett may even be able to open up and take some deep shots down the field.
The expectation is that Pittsburgh should be able to produce another relatively strong outing on the Offensive side of the ball and that will put some pressure on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals Offense.
James Connor will be highly motivated to produce a big game in a City he loves, but the Running Back could have a tough time with an improving Pittsburgh Defensive Line. He could be helped by Kyler Murray's ability to scramble, which may mean Connor can become a key part of any RPO plays that are run by Arizona, but the Steelers have clamped down on the run with enough strength to force Murray to beat them through the air.
It has made life tougher playing behind this Arizona Offensive Line, and Kyler Murray is not exactly blessed with the most consistent of skill players. Marquise Brown is a former Baltimore Raven who would love to remind the Steelers what they might have been 'missing', but he is banged up an the Cardinals are likely going to be throwing with a collapsing pocket all around Murray.
That could potentially lead to a mistake or two from the Quarter Back and the Pittsburgh Steelers may produce one of their bigger wins of the season.
There has to be a slight concern that Pittsburgh are set to play on Thursday Night Football, but they will not want to take advantage of the fact that AFC North leaders Baltimore are not playing in Week 13. Add in the fact that the Week 14 game in a few days time is against the really bad New England Patriots and the Steelers should have the motivation and focus to win this one by more than a Touchdown.
MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)
Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)
Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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