Well, it is perhaps more reasonable to suggest that the Georgia Bulldogs and Michigan Wolverines will almost certainly be called up, while the winner of the Pac-12 Championship is a third team that will be playing for the chance to win a National Championship.
The fourth is perhaps more open- the Florida State Seminoles have control and finishing unbeaten would likely see them earn the invite, even without Jordan Travis at Quarter Back. However, any upset may open the door for the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and, potentially the Alabama Crimson Tide.
I do think that is going to be the biggest test for the College Football PlayOff Committee- what do they do if the Crimson Tide upset their current Number 1 Ranked Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game? And what do they do if the Texas Longhorns win the Big 12 Championship and then hold a win over the SEC Champions, on the road no less.
So while it feels clear if all of those expected to win do so, things could get really messy with a couple of upsets.
In twelve months time it will all be a moot point with the expanded PlayOff and that will mean one or two teams will be able to force their way into the National Championship fight that may not be as deserving as they should be.
However, it perhaps a better situation than we have now where at least two schools are going to feel they deserved a chance to earn some in-season redemption by playing for the chance to win a National Championship.
New Mexico State Aggies @ Liberty Flames Pick: The Conference USA Championship Game will be hosted by unbeaten Liberty Flames (12-0) against the New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) on Friday evening. While some of the other unbeaten schools in College Football are playing for a spot in the National Championship PlayOff, the Flames are looking to earn a big Bowl Game by remaining unbeaten and getting the better of New Mexico State for a second time this season.
That is a major prize for Liberty and they have already made a bit of history by securing twelve wins in the regular season.
Having such an opportunity in front of them will increase some of the pressure on the Flames as they look to secure a Conference Championship, while they may also be facing a New Mexico State Aggies team that is much better than when they faced off in the regular season in early September.
Since that loss, the Aggies have won nine of ten games, while they also hold a win over the Auburn Tigers from the SEC and that was on the road to make it all the more impressive.
New Mexico State will be chasing a first Conference Championship in over forty years and they will feel they can make this a much more competitive affair than when losing by 16 points in September. That was also played at William Stadium, although the margin could have been much wider when you think of the discrepancy in yards gained between the teams.
Controlling the line of scrimmage is going to be key when the Aggies have the ball- their Offensive Line have been opening up holes for big running plays, but the Liberty Defensive Line has been stout all season. Credit where it is due, New Mexico State were able to put up 7.1 yards per carry in the loss to the Liberty Flames in the regular season and they will certainly believe they can find the creases in this one.
It was the big plays that gave New Mexico State a chance, but the turnovers killed them in that game and they will have to be a lot cleaner in this one. Dual-threat Quarter Back Diego Pavia was guilty of throwing two Interceptions in that defeat in September and he is going to be facing a Liberty Secondary which has continued to make those plays through the air.
In recent games, the Aggies have found a decent Offensive balance, but they will also be aware that they are facing an effective Liberty Defense.
Running the ball to open up the passing lanes will also be a game plan for the Liberty Flames, who have also ripped off big plays on the ground throughout this season. And like the other side of the ball, the Flames Offensive Line will know they are facing a New Mexico State Defensive Line which has been able to clamp down on the run.
However, much like the other side of the ball, the Liberty Flames will be encouraged by the fact they produced 250 rushing yards in the win over New Mexico State in the regular season. Those came at 4.8 yards per carry and the Flames were also able to produce 26 First Downs as they wore down the Aggies on the ground.
Kaidon Salter has been very effective as a runner or as a passer from the Quarter Back position and he had 276 passing yards in the win over the Aggies. In recent games, the Liberty Flames have really been using Salter's legs, but he has been happy throwing the ball at home and he will give the Flames a balance from the Offensive side of the ball.
As with any game, turnovers are going to be very important in this game.
Both Quarter Backs will make big plays, but taking care of the ball will be key to the outcome of the Conference USA Championship Game and it may need a late Offensive/Defensive effort to secure a cover of this line for either team.
You have to give the edge to the Flames who have not only won all twelve games this season, but ten of those have been by double digits. Jerry Kill and the Aggies have been looking strong, but those losses will perhaps mean coming into this game with a bit more doubt compared with the hosts, while the big win secured by Liberty in the regular season has to give them another mental edge.
In a tight game, those fine margins can make the difference and Liberty may just make one or two more plays on the Defensive side of the ball that helps them secure an unbeaten season.
Washington Huskies vs Oregon Ducks Pick: The Pac-12 has broken apart and next season there are only two schools that are officially part of this Conference after a large majority headed to other Conferences. For now, this is the last Pac-12 Championship Game, and perhaps the last ever depending on what the Oregon State Beavers and Washington State Cougars decide to do.
It might be a Conference ending on a high when the Championship Game is played in Las Vegas on Friday evening with so much on the line for both teams involved.
The Washington Huskies (12-0) completed an unbeaten season and winning the Pac-12 Championship will mean earning a spot in the College Football PlayOffs. They face the Oregon Ducks (11-1) whose sole defeat was to the Huskies in a very tight, competitive game played on the road, and Oregon have been impressive the Committee to the point that they are set as the current Number 5 team in the nation.
This almost certainly suggests the Ducks will earn a top four place if they can earn redemption and beat the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game and so there could not be any more to play for as the teams meet in Sin City.
Some will be surprised that the Oregon Ducks are such big favourites- the public are very much on the side of the underdog and must be wondering why an unbeaten team like the Huskies are being given as many points as they are.
The main reasoning seems to be that the Ducks have only gotten stronger as the regular season has wound down, while the Washington Huskies have found wins harder and harder to come by. The Huskies have won their last two games by a combined 5 points and merely looking at how the two teams have dealt with recent common opponents will show a stark difference.
However, Football does not work that way and ultimately the Oregon Ducks will need to prove they are the better team on the field. There will still be some regret about the way they were beaten by the Huskies in the regular season after Oregon have earned over 100 yards more than Washington, had 7 more First Downs, dominated the time of possession and also won the turnover battle.
With all that in mind, it is actually quite hard to understand how Oregon lost that game and so they will have a big point to prove on Friday.
Bo Nix versus Michael Penix Jr at the Quarter Back positions will provide the sub-plot with both leading the way as far as the Heisman Trophy is concerned. It was Penix Jr who threw four Touchdown passes in the win over Oregon and was declared the leading contender for that coveted prize, but Box Nix has looked better and better in each passing week and the dominant wins secured by Oregon have pushed him to the front of the line.
The winner of this game may go a long way to securing the Heisman Trophy and Oregon will be very confident in their Quarter Back.
Box Nix had 337 passing yards with 2 Touchdowns in the loss to Washington and he is likely to have another strong day behind this Oregon Offensive Line that has offered him plenty of time in the pocket. The Ducks should be able to establish the run to ensure there is a balance to their Offensive output, and Bo Nix should be able to exploit one or two holes in the Washington Secondary.
He avoided turnovers in the regular season, but Nix has to be aware of the fact the Huskies have been very quick to get to the ball in passing situations over the last several games. Turnovers are going to play a huge part in this Championship Game and that has to be the one concern, even with Bo Nix playing at a very high level.
He avoided turnovers in the regular season, but Nix has to be aware of the fact the Huskies have been very quick to get to the ball in passing situations over the last several games. Turnovers are going to play a huge part in this Championship Game and that has to be the one concern, even with Bo Nix playing at a very high level.
The expectation is that Bo Nix and the Oregon Offensive unit will be able to replicate their successes from the regular season game, especially as a neutral setting should make it 'easier' too.
It is perhaps tougher to know what to expect from Washington considering there has been a drop in their levels in recent outings. Head Coach Kalen DeBoer has spoken about the Huskies getting healthier at the right time and Jalen McMillan will be playing in this one having missed much of the regular season after securing over 1000 Receiving yards in 2022.
He will give Michael Penix Jr another threat and that may be crucial if the Huskies have trouble establishing the run in this game. They did manage to produce 99 yards on the ground in the regular season game against Oregon, but in recent games the Offensive Line are averaging just 112 rushing yards per game at 3.8 yards per carry.
Facing up to this Oregon Defensive Line may be a tough test for Washington, which means leaning on the Michael Penix Jr arm even more. The Quarter Back will have time to make his throws considering the protection he has been given by the Offensive Line and with the Oregon pass rush not as effective as hoped, while Penix Jr will recognise that there are one or two holes in the Ducks Secondary that can be exploited by his talented Receiving corps.
Both teams will feel they can move the ball with some consistency, although the more balanced Oregon Offensive unit deserves an edge.
Motivation will be high in the Oregon camp to earn revenge and they will feel they are the superior team compared with Washington, despite the loss in the regular season. It was a game the Ducks will feel they let slip, rather than one that Washington won, and the neutral setting should aid Oregon as they look for revenge and a return to the College Football PlayOff.
The feeling is that they are the better team and the Defensive unit may step up and make a late play that gives Oregon's Offensive unit an extra possession that enables them to cover this spread. Opposing the public is a bonus, while the Ducks have a strong 3-0-1 record against the spread when facing Ranked teams this season.
Washington are not to be dismissed lightly and they will be highly motivated by the size of this line against them. Being in Las Vegas will certainly mean the players are well aware that the oddsmakers have little belief in them and that should mean a strong Huskies effort is put on the board.
However, that may still not be enough and Oregon can secure a top four Ranking at the end of Championship Week thanks to a dominant Pac-12 Championship Game win.
Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: They would clearly love to troll the Big 12 on their way out of the Conference if the final regular season is anything to go by, while the Texas Longhorns (11-1) still have faint hopes of earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff.
The Dallas Cowboys played on Thursday Night Football and that means the Big 12 Championship Game can be played in their Stadium on Saturday, although there will be a team called the Cowboys on the field. The Texas Longhorns go into the game as big favourites when facing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3), but the underdog have already upset SEC bound Oklahoma in the regular season and would love to do the same to Texas, while ending any PlayOff hopes that the Longhorns have.
It is a long shot for Texas to make the top four after being handed a Number 7 Ranking this week, which puts them behind the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes. The Pac-12 Champion will likely have secured their PlayOff spot on Friday, so Texas are going to need either Georgia or Florida State to falter in Championship Games played later on Saturday.
Even then there is no guarantee they will be invited in and all Texas can do is make sure they are a one-loss Big 12 Champion and see if that is going to be enough.
Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has admitted that his school will be able to speak more about their potential for being a College Football PlayOff team at the end of Championship Week and that it will only matter if Texas are able to win this game.
You have to make them significant favourites to do that against an Oklahoma State team that were embarrassed by the UCF Knights just three weeks ago. The Cowboys have needed big second half efforts to beat the Houston Cougars and BYU Cougars since that loss to the Knights, but that is less impressive when you think those two teams are 4-14 in Conference play this season.
However, the Cowboys did beat the Oklahoma Sooners and also hold a good looking win over the Kansas State Wildcats so will have to be afforded plenty of respect. The Offensive Line has been strong for much of the season, although it may be tougher for the Cowboys to establish the run against this Longhorns Defensive Line.
Even then, Alan Bowman has thrown for over 300 passing yards in back to back games and there have been some holes in the Texas Secondary that could be exploited. He will have his numbers, but an inability to run the ball with a lot of consistency does put pressure on Alan Bowman and unfortunately for the Cowboys, that has led to one too many Interceptions.
Turnovers could be a problem against the Longhorns who may bend in the passing game, but who have players capable of stepping in front of a thrown ball and taking it the other way. If the Longhorns can earn those extra possessions in this Big 12 Championship Game, Texas have a very good chance of recording a dominant win that may be used to impress the PlayOff Committee if other results have fallen their way.
While there are some questions about how exactly the Cowboys are going to look Offensively, the Longhorns should be balanced and moving the ball with authority for much of the Big 12 Championship Game.
They can run the ball against this Cowboys Defensive Line, while the Oklahoma State Secondary has struggled to make stops too. Unlike the Texas Longhorns, the Cowboys are not being able to turn the ball over nearly as effectively, while Quinn Ewers has limited his mistakes at Quarter Back compared with Alan Bowman.
Any turnovers could make it very difficult for Texas to cover, but they are going to be focused and looking to make a statement to a Conference they are leaving. Being able to do with the Championship trophy would be exactly what the fans would have hoped before the season and the Longhorns may end up pulling away for a big win in this Big 12 Championship Game.
Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The two time defending National Champions are hoping to push their winning run onto thirty games and the Georgia Bulldogs (12-0) are going to have a massive home support with this game taking place in Atlanta.
In front of them is a familiar rival after the Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) kept their faint hopes alive of playing the College Football PlayOff. The Crimson Tide needed a miraculous Fourth Down Touchdown pass to be completed in beating the Auburn Tigers in Rivalry Week, although the Number 8 Ranked Alabama are going to need to win this SEC Championship to impress the Committee.
Some may feel that is going to be enough for Alabama to leap a number of other teams, perahps even the Oregon Ducks who are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday. Most expect a win for the Ducks to take them into the top four, but an Alabama win will really put the cat amongst the pigeons and the PlayOff picture would suddenly become very, very murky indeed.
Nick Saban is not going to be thinking about that and the players should be focused on trying to earn an upset over the Georgia Bulldogs, who crushed the LSU Tigers to win the SEC Championship last season. They did lose to Alabama two years ago, but then earned the best possible revenge by beating the Crimson Tide in the National Championship Game.
After doing that again last season, the Georgia Bulldogs have been considered the best team in College Football despite some serious talent leaving for the NFL. However, it has to be stated that they have won games all season without ever looking as dominant as the last two editions and so there is something for Georgia to prove when entering the SEC Championship Game.
Big wins over the Tennessee Volunteers and Missouri Tigers have been impressive though and Georgia are facing an Alabama team that are also not quite up to the level we have come to expect from a Nick Saban team in College Football.
A key for the Bulldogs will be the Offensive Line who have been opening some big running lanes and who will have been encouraged by some of the rushes that the Auburn Tigers were able to produce against Alabama in Week 13.
Carson Beck's life at Quarter Back would become much more manageable if the Bulldogs are ripping off some big gains on the ground and he has been careful with the ball when he has dropped back to throw. That will need to be the case against this Alabama Secondary, which has closed the regular season in good form, although the Georgia Bulldogs have to be confident in their ability to move the chains.
It could become a battle of field positions and the line of scrimmage looks very important on the other side of the ball too. For much of the season the Bulldogs Defensive Lin have clamped down on the run, but there has been one or two more holes up front than earlier on and this is going to be very encouraging for the upset-minded Crimson Tide.
Like Georgia, the Alabama Crimson Tide Offensive Line have been able to open some big holes up front and it will be important to keep Jalen Milroe in front of the chains, even if the Quarter Back has shown improved poise in each passing week of the regular season.
Throwing the ball against the Bulldogs Secondary will be tough, but it is much more manageable from short yardage positions and that has to be the aim for the Crimson Tide. Jalen Milroe has been given solid protection by the Offensive Line, which has also improved as the season has progressed, and it makes this SEC Championship Game fascinating viewing.
Alabama are simply not used to being set as the underdog, and they have a decent covering record when given points under their current Head Coach. However, those covers have all be in outright upset wins, and the Crimson Tide have suffered some blow out losses in the games where they have failed to make the points count.
The last three times the Crimson Tide have been given points they have been playing the Georgi Bulldogs and the first two were won by Alabama. However, the most recent in the National Championship Game in January 2022 ended in Georgia winning by 15 points and the narrow lean has to be with the unbeaten Bulldogs.
Nothing will come easily for either team, but the Bulldogs have looked stronger down the stretch with Brock Bowers back and expected to play in this one. His play-making skills in the passing game could end up making the difference and the Georgia Bulldogs can underline their position as the top Ranked team in College Football by ending Alabama's hopes of sneaking into the top four.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan Wolverines Pick: Most of the fans may feel the hard work has been completed after the Michigan Wolverines (12-0) got the better of the Ohio State Buckeyes and won the Big Ten East Division. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh is back for the Championship Game and the Wolverines are almost certainly going to be playing in the College Football PlayOff again.
However, the Head Coach has made it clear that Week 13 was the first of four steps he wants his Michigan team to take this season.
They have won the Division, but the next step is winning the Conference Championship Game before earning a spot in the National Championship Game for the first time under Harbaugh's guidance. Winning this game would mean the Michigan Wolverines are almost certainly going to hold a top two Ranking for the PlayOff and that means they are likely going to be favourites to earn a trip to Houston in early January.
Overlooking the Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) would be a mistake, especially as the Hawkeyes have won four in a row since their controversial loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
All credit has to be given to the Hawkeyes Defensive unit for pushing the team into the Big Ten Championship Game and it has been such a struggle on the other side of the ball that it has been announced that Brian Ferentz will not continue as Offensive Co-Ordinator.
The Hawkeyes have averaged just 18 points per game this season, which makes it incredibly difficult to believe they have won ten games, although they have not really faced too many opponents like Michigan. One they did face that could offer Wolverines some game tape to analyse is when the Hawkeyes were blown out by the Penn State Nittany Lions in September.
With all that in mind, it is very hard to know how the Hawkeyes plan on moving the ball with any kind of consistency in this one. The Offensive Line have not exactly been dominating and now have to face a Michigan Defensive Line that has been stout up front all season, while Deacon Hill has not really thrived at Quarter Back.
Managing the game might be the best Iowa can ask from Deacon Hill and avoiding mistakes may at least allow the Hawkeyes to play the field position game and perhaps try and force mistakes from the Michigan Wolverines.
The one positive for the Hawkeyes is that the Michigan Wolverines have been a little inconsistent Offensively over their last three games as they have faced the best the Big Ten East can offer. For all of the lack of power that Iowa have Offensively, they do run out a very good Defensive unit and will be hoping they can contain Michigan for long enough to give their team a chance of earning the upset.
A problem for the Hawkeyes is that their Defense could be run out on the field for long enough to just lose concentration and have fatigue build up. That was the case when they played the Nittany Lions, who had the ball for 45 minutes in their win over the Hawkeyes, and who scored 21 of their 31 points in the second half.
Blake Corum will likely be asked to bang his head against the brick wall of the Hawkeyes Defensive Line until it cracks and the Wolverines are not going to ask too much from JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back. JJ McCarthy has not put up big numbers in recent outings, but he has managed the game for the Wolverines and the expectation is that Michigan will pull away in the second half as they move forward into the College Football PlayOff.
These schools met in the Big Ten Championship Game two years ago and Michigan crushed Iowa by 38 points.
Simply getting to 30 points might be enough to cover with the Hawkeyes not expected to have much Offensive success in this one and the Michigan Wolverines can put an exclamation on this regular season with a big win.
Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals Pick: The top two teams are expected to remain unbeaten at the end of Championship Week and the public are convinced that the Florida State Seminoles (12-0) will be able to do the same in the ACC Championship Game being played on Saturday evening.
They are facing the Louisville Cardinals (10-2) who were upset by the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 13 on the same day that the Seminoles were getting the better of the Florida Gators in their first full game without Jordan Travis at Quarter Back.
All credit has to be given to the Seminoles for battling through and the College Football PlayOff Committee looks to be giving them enough respect to believe they earn an opportunity to compete for a National Championship by remaining unbeaten.
Tate Rodemaker has taken over at Quarter Back, but he only needed to give the Seminoles 134 passing yards last week in the win over the Gators. It was the Seminoles Offensive Line and running game that powered them on this side of the ball, while the Defense picked up an Interception and did just enough to keep Florida at arm's length.
There should be more opportunities for Rodemaker to impress with his arm in this one as he faces the Louisville Defensive unit that has not been at the same level in recent outings as they have produced for much of the season. Even then, the Seminoles cannot expect to have an easy time running the ball against the Cardinals Defensive Line and that will mean there is some pressure on Tate Rodemaker to make the throws needed.
The Quarter Back will likely face some pressure up front from the pass rush, but the Louisville Secondary is having some issues stopping the pass. That should aid the Seminoles backup, but it will still be a tough spot for Tate Rodemaker and that may offer the Cardinals an opportunity to earn the upset.
Much will depend on how effective the Louisville Offense can be against what has been a very good Florida State Defensive unit.
Running the ball and keeping the team in front of the chains will be the game plan for the Cardinals, but that is going to be challenging enough for Louisville. Jawhar Jordan has been having a stellar year running the ball for the Cardinals and he is going to be the player that Louisville need to get going if they are going to win the game and make things that much more comfortable for Jack Plummer at Quarter Back.
Jack Plummer has been guilty of some poor decisions when throwing the ball down the stretch and it is very important that he does not turn the ball over in this one. The Seminoles Secondary have been able to make big plays on the ball, but Plummer will have an easier day in the office if his team are in front of the chains and he is not pressured into throwing further down the field.
Being behind the chains would also mean having to face a very effective Florida State pass rush as the Defense looks to step up and make the plays for a team missing Jordan Travis.
The public are very much behind Florida State and probably cannot believe how short the line is for the game- however, the sharp money looks to be coming down to back the underdog and the spread shrinking is a real indication of that.
Louisville have a 1-0 record against the spread when playing after a loss this season and they are 1-0 against the spread when set as the underdog. After watching the Rivalry Week games, you can understand why the casual fan will not want any part of the Cardinals, but the Defensive unit can come out with a point to prove and they can limit Tate Rodemaker and the Florida State Offensive unit.
This should be a game that goes right down to the wire, but the Cardinals can be backed with the points as they perhaps throw a real spanner into the College Football PlayOff picture with a victory in Charlotte.
MY PICKS: Liberty Flames - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 8.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 14.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals + 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)
Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)
Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)
Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)
Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)
Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)
Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
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