The first half of Bowl Season is over and we are into the 'bigger' Bowl Games as we make the run towards the College Football PlayOff.
Games will be added to this thread over the coming days.
Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs Pick: Losses to two teams from the Big 12 had to be expected, but the SMU Mustangs (11-2) won nine games in a row to secure the American Athletic Conference. They were hoping that would have carried them into a 'bigger' Bowl Game, but the Mustangs have clearly refocused after initial disappointment on Selection Day.
Head Coach Rhett Lashlee is happy the Mustangs have an opportunity to showcase their talents to a wider audience, although they will be without Quarter Back Preston Stone. The Mustangs had to make do without their star player in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game too after Stone broke his leg, but Kevin Jennings showed he can help guide this team.
In reality the Mustangs will be leaning on their Defensive unit when facing the Boston College Eagles (6-6) who lost their last three games and are still chasing a winning record in 2023.
This Bowl Game is being played at famous Fenway Park and that should mean Boston College have plenty of fans in attendance, but they don't necessarily match up very well with the Mustangs Defensive unit.
An opportunity will be given to players that are going to be part of the team in 2024 as Boston College look to offer up some experience in a competitive environment. They have a dual-threat Quarter Back that can make things a little more awkward for the SMU Mustangs, although this is a Defensive Line that have been able to make enough plays to clamp down on the run.
It may mean we need to see more from Thomas Castellanos as a passer rather than his ability to move the chains with his legs, but the passing game has been inconsistent. There is also going to be an issue for the Quarter Back whenever he is in obvious passing situations as the Mustangs possess a pass rush that will be able to give the Boston College Offensive Line plenty of fits throughout this Bowl Game.
Interceptions have been an issue for Thomas Castellanos and it may give the Mustangs the momentum to turn short fields into big points.
The Mustangs will want to ease any pressure on Kevin Jennings at Quarter Back and they have been plenty balanced as an Offensive unit all season. While the end of the season saw SMU just have some issues in ripping off big gains on the ground, they are facing a Boston College Defensive Line that had been worn down and who struggled to stop anything.
As long as the Mustangs can get something going against this porous Defensive Line, it should mean Kevin Jennings can make enough plays through the air to push the chains forward. The Eagles Secondary have struggled, even while they have been having problems stopping the run, while the lack of pass rush pressure should be music to the ears of the SMU Quarter Back.
This should give the Mustangs the chance to win a first Bowl Game in over a decade and also end the season with a twelfth win to mach a school record.
Miami Hurricanes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: There is one Bowl Game being played at the home of the Boston Red Sox and this is one taking place at famous Yankees Stadium. Playing in such an environment should bring out of the best of these two teams as they prepare to face one another in New York City.
The Miami Hurricanes (7-5) had a relatively disappointing season, but did secure a winning record by beating the Boston College Eagles to close out their regular season schedule. They have lost some key contributors to the Transfer Portal or to prepare for the NFL Draft, but that does mean an opportunity has been produced for those that may have a big impact in 2024.
Tyler Van Dyke has decided to leave the Hurricanes, which means they will have to play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) with some inexperience at a key position. However, it may also mean the game plan is pretty comfortable for the Hurricanes who will believe they can lean on this Offensive Line to run the ball right at the Scarlet Knights.
Rutgers Defensive Line struggled to clamp down on the run at the end of the season and keeping the team in third and manageable spots will give the Hurricanes a chance of winning this Bowl Game. This should make things a touch more comfortable for Jacurri Brown, who is the only Quarter Back of note for the Hurricanes now that Van Dyke has left and Emory Williams is injured.
Inexperience is a problem for Brown who had redshirted through the regular season, but his team can make it easier by running the ball well. Jacurri Brown may also pose a threat with his legs, while he should have time in the pocket to attack the Scarlet Knights Secondary.
Having a few more Bowl practices should aid Rutgers after a poor end to the season with four losses suffered in succession to miss out on guaranteeing a winning record. Motivation to secure that winning end to the 2023 season will push Rutgers forward, as will playing in this Stadium.
Offensively this is a big test for the Scarlet Knights who struggled to run the ball down the stretch.
They do look like they could match up poorly on this side of the ball, although Miami have to deal with the fact that some of their players may be thinking ahead to the NFL Draft or what the future holds for them. Even then, Rutgers may find it more challenging to move the ball with the same kind of consistency as the Miami Hurricanes could find and so the lean is backing the team from the ACC.
Rutgers will play hard and it should be close, as the layers anticipate, but the Hurricanes can come through.
Kansas State Wildcats vs NC State Wolfpack Pick: If these schools were featuring in a 'bigger' Bowl Game, the teams may have looked a lot more similar to those that participated in the regular season. Instead, the Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) and the NC State Wolfpack (9-3) are trying to round off successful seasons with a Bowl win despite losing a host of players to the Transfer Portal or those who have begun to focus on the NFL Draft.
In games like this one, motivation is one factor, but the other is trying to work out which of the teams will look the best on the field with inexperienced players coming in to fill in for those that helped compile solid records.
The Wolfpack will be turning back to Brennan Armstrong at Quarter Back after he lost his job to MJ Morris in the regular season. The latter has decided to leave the team so Armstrong may get the call to end the season as the starter in this Bowl Game.
An ideal approach to the game will be to ease the pressure on Brennan Armstrong and that is through a strong running game- the Wolfpack should be able to move the ball on the ground against this Wildcats Defensive Line and keeping Armstrong in third and manageable would be huge for the potential success of this team.
Experience should help Brennan Armstrong when he does drop back to throw, but this Wildcats Secondary has been stronger than the Defensive Line and so the Wolfpack approach should mean they have a solid Offensive outing.
It feels like Kansas State will also be able to move the ball very well on the ground and they will be looking to do the same, although the Offensive play-calling may be designed to give Avery Johnson a chance to show what he can do at Quarter Back. He was always going to be taking over from Will Howard, who has entered the Transfer Portal, but this is Johnson's first career start at Quarter Back and he has some big expectations to fulfil.
He will be tested by this NC State Defensive unit, even if one or two of the key contributors are not taking to the field, but Avery Johnson will be looking to show what he will be able to do in 2024 for this Wildcats team.
Turnovers are likely going to be very important to the outcome of this game, but the Wildcats may have a bit more consistency coming from their Quarter Back. That may sound strange considering the lack of experience that Avery Johnson has compared with Brennan Armstrong, but Johnson has a high ceiling and he can begin his College Football career as a starter with a successful outing.
Oklahoma Sooners vs Arizona Wildcats Pick: Things are going to be changing for both the Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) and Arizona Wildcats (9-3) in 2024 with both teams leaving their current Conferences.
It has been a solid 2023 for both teams, but the fans are likely going to be looking back at the year with a different slant.
The Sooners would have been expecting to push into the College Football PlayOff and they were on course to do that during the year, but back back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State ended those hopes. Now a number of players have left the team, including Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back who has transferred to the Oregon Ducks, and it does leave Oklahoma potentially vulnerable to the defeat.
On the other hand, Arizona fans will feel their young team massively overachieved this season and that means the majority of the players will stick together for another go in 2024. They will be moving into the Big 12 that Oklahoma are vacating, and this is a chance for the players to show what they could potentially achieve once they leave the Pac-12.
Noah Fifita has shown himself to be one of the best young Quarter Backs in College Football, although the challenges will be greater in 2024 now there is a lot more film of him on tape. It certainly helps that he is playing behind an Arizona Offensive Line that has opened up some big running lanes and they are almost certainly going to have success establishing the ground game against a much change Sooners Defensive unit.
It should make things more comfortable for Noah Fifita, who should be able to exploit the Sooners Secondary, and the Arizona Wildcats have a real chance to showcase their qualities.
The Offensive unit will always get the focus from fans, but the Wildcats have a solid Defensive unit that can only grow and improve even further going into the 2024 season.
They can certainly show their toughness at the Defensive Line where Arizona have been able to restrict teams and doing that against the Oklahoma Sooners will certainly make the Wildcats worthy favourites.
Oklahoma's Offensive Line will likely be missing a number of key starters with the NFL Draft the focus and that should help Arizona in clamping down on the run. The Sooners will always have talented younger players coming through, but it is a tough ask to fill in for some players that are going to be playing at the next level and especially in a one-off situation like they will be facing in this Bowl Game.
Jackson Arnold will be filling in at Quarter Back and there are some huge expectations on his shoulders- he will have some top Receivers lined up and Arnold has thrown a few times in the regular season.
However, if the Offensive Line is still working out how they can replace some of their top players, it may mean Jackson Arnold is under a bit more pressure than he would be hoping. He can still make some big throws against this Wildcats Secondary, but Arizona will feel they can bait the young Quarter Back into a mistake or two if they can control the line of scrimmage.
Two high-powered Offensive units, this has the makings of a very enjoyable Bowl Game, but the edge has to be given to the Wildcats and their superior experience that will take to the field. It may come down to which of these teams have the ball last to confirm a winner, but the feeling is that Arizona may want this a bit more and they can win and cover.
Friday 29th December
Kentucky Wildcats vs Clemson Tigers Pick: At the start of the 2023 season, the Clemson Tigers (8-4) would have expected to be involved in the College Football PlayOff picture. Instead they were not even able to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game and the fans were not happy at times with the inconsistencies seen from a school that has prided themselves on being one of the top two or three teams in the nation in recent times.
Dabo Swinney even got into a heated discussion on a radio show with a Tigers fan about whether they were reaching their potential.
Motivation for this Bowl Game will be difficult to find, especially when you think Clemson would have been targeting a much bigger Bowl appearance and it is perhaps no surprise that a number of players have withdrawn. That is really going to impact the Tigers and the spread has narrowed accordingly.
It is the Defensive unit that have been hurt the most and the Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) can play without the pressure of needing to win this Bowl Game to secure a winning record. The Wildcats are also boosted by the fact that Devin Leary will start at Quarter Back and Ray Davis, who is tipped to enter the NFL, will begin at Running Back.
Teams have looked to clamp down on the run and force the Wildcats to beat them through the air, but the Tigers Defensive Line may struggle to do that against Ray Davis. The Tigers are missing key contributors at all three levels on this side of the ball and it should mean Davis is able to establish the run and keeping Devin Leary in third and manageable spots.
Devin Leary should have an opportunity to use play-action and try and attack this Clemson Secondary and the Wildcats may be able to move the chains, albeit with an idea to make sure they are winning the field position battle.
Clemson finished the season with four wins in a row and they have largely kept the Offensive unit intact for this Bowl Game, which will leaves them as favourites to win this one.
However, they will be facing a solid Kentucky Defensive unit that may match up pretty well with the Tigers on this side of the ball.
Everything begins with the Tigers being able to establish the run, but the Wildcats Defensive Line have played the run pretty well all season and that should at least give them a chance to stall drives. The Secondary have given up some big plays, so Cade Klubnik has an opportunity to end his season on a high, although he will have to be careful when it comes to throwing Interceptions.
You can understand the reason the Clemson Tigers are still favourites, but the Kentucky Wildcats could take advantage of the Tigers Defensive absentees to keep this one close. Bowl Games can be tough to read, but the line has come down from the open and backing the Wildcats with more than a Field Goal start looks the right play.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Memphis Tigers Pick: The Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) and Memphis Tigers (9-3) look like teams that will be highly motivated to finish the 2023 season on a high.
The two schools have become well accustomed to playing in Bowl Games in recent years and the future expansion of the College Football PlayOff is something that may be targeted by both the Cyclones and Tigers.
For now they will be looking to impose their own game plan on the other and the key looks to be the Iowa State Defensive unit as they look to clamp down on the Memphis Offense that has proven to be a big part of the Tigers success.
The Tigers have thrown the ball very well all season, but they have not faced a team like the Iowa State Cyclones too often. The Cyclones Defensive Line will be looking to clamp down on the run and try and force Memphis to become one-dimensional, while throwing into this Secondary comes with the danger of loading up on the turnover numbers.
Seth Henigan will be confident at Quarter Back, and his numbers give him every right to believe he can attack this Secondary, but Interceptions have been an issue.
Turning the ball over and losing those possessions will really hurt the Tigers who have been set as a considerable underdog and that is because they may find it very difficult to stop what is expected to be a balanced Iowa State Offense.
Even though the top Running Backs are no longer with the Cyclones, the Offensive Line have prided themselves on cracking open with lanes on the ground. That was proven in the final regular season game when Abu Sama III came into the starting line up at Running Back and put up 276 yards on the ground.
The Cyclones Offensive Line are expected to have their way with the Tigers Defensive Line and that should mean they in third and manageable situations for much of this Bowl Game. Abu Sama III might even be able to rip off some big gains on his own and pile up the numbers again, and that should help Rocco Becht at Quarter Back.
He will be well protected and Rocco Becht has to be given credit for looking after the ball when he has been asked to throw- that will be important against this Tigers Secondary that has allowed plenty of passing yards, but who have used Interceptions to turn the tide.
Much will depend on how well the Memphis Tigers can impose themselves on the Iowa State Defense, but even then it feels like the Cyclones have an edge.
Ultimately they may win the turnover battle and that can see the Cyclones pull clear for a big win and a cover of this Bowl Game.
Monday 1st January
Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The College Football PlayOff selection came with a lot of scrutiny and ultimately controversy when the final four teams were selected. Leaving out an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion will still be a talking point when the PlayOff begins, although the Florida State Seminoles blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs may have the Committee feeling justified in their final selection.
The Michigan Wolverines (13-0) will feel they have done more than enough to deserve their spot in the PlayOff for another season as an unbeaten Champion that has knocked off the likes of the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes. A crushing win over the Iowa Hawkeyes secured the Big Ten Championship, but the Wolverines will still head to Pasadena knowing there is a lot to prove.
They will begin as narrow favourites against SEC Champions Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) who forced their way into the top four with a win over the Georgia Bulldogs to take home a Conference Championship. Leaving out the SEC Champion was the big challenge that the Committee had been set when picking their final four teams for the PlayOffs, but they felt the Crimson Tide body of work, and health of the team, deserved a place in the top four.
Losing to the Texas Longhorns at home should have been difficult to overcome, but Alabama have put a strong winning run together and the loss was given a bit more importance after the Longhorns won the Big 12 Championship. Now Head Coach Nick Saban will have had plenty of time to put together a strong game plan to tackle the Wolverines and the layers are taking no real chances with this Rose Bowl PlayOff Semi Final.
They may not be the same Defensive unit of years gone by, but Alabama have improved as the season has gone on. This is going to be the challenge for the Michigan Wolverines Offensively, especially as Michigan struggled to really show off on this side of the ball as the competition intensified.
Running the ball with Blake Corum will be the main ambition of the Wolverines, but the line of scrimmage has not been controlled as well as Michigan would have expected. There has been some room against this Alabama Defensive Line, but not a lot, and so the pressure may be on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back.
There was a point in the season when McCarthy had his name linked with the Heisman, but he has certainly been more of a game manager down the stretch. That may be all that Michigan expect from him in this College Football PlayOff, and especially if he is being asked to throw from third and long spots on the field, but it also means the numbers are not going to be very eye-catching.
Michigan will just want to make sure they are able to win the field battle and that means avoiding the turnovers that could be key to the entire outcome of the game.
The reality is this game is likely to be decided when Alabama have the ball.
After a rough start, Jalen Milroe has stepped up to become the Quarter Back that the Crimson Tide would have wanted and he has made some memorable plays, none more so than the pass that broke the Auburn Tigers at the end of the Iron Bowl.
The Crimson Tide's Offensive Line is big and strong, as has become common in Alabama, but the strength of the Michigan Defensive unit has been at the line of scrimmage. This is going to be a monumental battle with each team trying to impose their will on the other and will determine how this game plays out.
Getting in front of the chains would be huge, but Alabama have to be a little more confident in their Quarter Back making the plays through the air that may give the SEC Champions an edge.
The Wolverines pass rush will be a problem, but the Secondary have allowed one or two big plays to be made against them and Jalen Milroe is playing with the confidence to exploit any holes.
And for all of their successes in recent years, Michigan have struggled to really perform when it comes to the College Football PlayOff, which may indicate something against the Coaching with extra time to prepare. On the other hand, Alabama have been really good at making sure they get into the National Championship Game from this position and the feeling is that Nick Saban will out-think Jim Harbaugh in a big game.
Nothing will come easy for either Offensive unit, but Jalen Milroe may have a bit more than JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back and that can push Alabama through at the expense of Michigan.
Washington Huskies vs Texas Longhorns Pick: The Sugar Bowl features the last Pac-12 Champion, for now at least, and the Big 12 Champion and the Washington Huskies (13-0) have to be motivated having been set as a considerable underdog. That will bother the team, especially as they have continued to upset the odds, most notably when beating the Oregon Ducks in the regular season and in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
This is the situation for the Huskies again when facing the Texas Longhorns (12-1) who have overcome their one defeat to the Oklahoma Sooners to go on and win the Big 12 Championship in their last season in the Conference. Their win over the Alabama Crimson Tide on the road was always going to give the Longhorns an opportunity to earn their spot in the College Football PlayOff and many will feel a repeat of that game from the regular season will be played in the National Championship Game.
Both teams will be in the same SEC next season, but the Longhorns will make a mistake if they overlook Washington, who are better than the sum of their parts.
Michael Penix Jr leads the way for the Huskies and he was a Heisman Finalist so the Quarter Back will be tasked with leading Washington to the National Championship Game. Last year it was TCU from the Big 12 who upset their way into that Game, but Washington will certainly feel they can do that this time around.
Running the ball opens up the passing lanes for the Huskies, but running the ball against this Texas Defensive Line will be anything but easy. Both teams will feel they have the dominant unit at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball, and it is certainly going to be very important in determining the outcome of the game.
Establishing the run will be key, but the Offensive Line will certainly feel they can still offer Michael Penix Jr time in the pocket to make his plays down the field. The protection should hold up for the Quarter Back and this Longhorns Secondary have had one or two holes exploited when teams have stepped back to throw.
However, Penix Jr is also going to have to be aware of the tendency of the Texas Defensive Backs to anticipate throws and jump in front of those passes. Turnovers are key in every American Football game, but it feels very important for the Huskies to avoid losing the turnover battle against this Longhorns team.
Earning extra possessions will certainly give the Longhorns a serious edge and they have certainly been good enough Offensively to challenge this Washington team. The Huskies have to be respected for the unbeaten record, but the Defensive unit have not been nearly as strong as their Offense.
Quinn Ewers is back at Quarter Back and Jonathan Brooks has been one of the top Running Backs in College Football and these two players have certainly provided Texas with the kind of balance that will make them tough to stop. Picking up short fields from turnovers will make it very tough to slow down the Longhorns and the feeling is that this could be a hard day in the office for the Huskies.
The Longhorns Offensive Line should dictate the terms at the line of scrimmage and Brooks will likely keep Texas in front of the chains.
This should mean Quinn Ewers has a bit more time in the pocket to attack this Washington Secondary that have allowed considerable yards through the air. Much like Texas, the Huskies have a Secondary that may bend, but will turn the ball over with aggressive play from the Defensive Backs and avoiding those will be very much on the mind of Ewers at Quarter Back.
You have to really believe that turnovers are going to dictate the outcome of this Sugar Bowl and decide which of these teams is able to play in the National Championship Game.
It is a big spread and opposing the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game was not a very good idea as they dominated on the day.
However, Washington have been involved in a lot of tight wins and you have to believe that eventually that will catch up with them.
The Longhorns have the balance Offensively and the strength on the Defensive Line to earn enough of an edge to not only win this game, but cover as they look to earn a spot in the National Championship Game. It should be a lot of fun to watch on New Year's Day, but the Longhorns look the team to back in the Sugar Bowl.
MY PICKS: SMU Mustangs - 12.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Iowa State Cyclones - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
Bowl Part Two Update: 3-3, - 0.37 Units (6 Units Staked, - 6.17% Yield)
Bowl Part One: 4-6, - 2.71 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.10% Yield)
Week 14: 3-3, - 0.31 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.17% Yield)
Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)
Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)
Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)
Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)
Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)
Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)
Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
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