It has been a really tough season for starters and Trevor Lawrence looks like he will be missing for at least a couple of games for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were upset as an almost double digit home favourite on Monday Night Football. At one stage they were considered a potential Number 1 Seed in the AFC, although only an outsider for that Seed, but now the Jaguars may be looking over their shoulders at the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South, while the Wild Card positions may also be beyond them if they have to go without Lawrence for much longer than anticipated.
The opponent on Monday Night Football, the Cincinnati Bengals, will know all about how quickly a season can turn sour when the starting Quarter Back goes down with an injury. Jake Browning did play well enough to offer encouragement, but it is still a long road back for the Bengals in the tough AFC.
The Bye Weeks are now almost all but over, which means the run towards the PlayOffs is now on.
Results in each passing week can have a big impact on the Seeding position with the Number 1 Seed in both Conference still highly coveted considering it offers the only Bye through to the Divisional Round of the post-season. Things have become murkier as to how those final Seedings will look after Week 13 results and there are still plenty of big regular season games to be played before it all shakes out.
Thankfully those positions will be decided on the field, rather than using a PlayOff Committee like College Football after all of the controversies about their final four selection.
With big games in the NFC East and West in Week 14 and some fascinating AFC games that could begin to determine the Wild Card picture, it looks another good week for the fans to enjoy. There are also two Monday Night Football games in Week 14, which kick off at the same time, as the NFL continues to work out new ways for fans to enjoy the game.
Personally it does not appeal much to me, although the Miami Dolphins are one of those games and that will be the focus of my attention.
Week 13 is now behind us and that means a new top five, which can be seen below. Unlike last week, results in Week 13 have impacted the positions of teams with five more weeks of the regular season to be played.
1) San Francisco 49ers (9-3): they may not have the most wins in the NFL, but the crushing win in Philadelphia has to be highly respected and the 49ers look the team to beat in the NFC after Week 13.
2) Philadelphia Eagles (10-2): you have to understand the factors around the Eagles loss to the 49ers and so I am not going to drop them further than this position. Fatigue would have played a part after two tough wins and the 49ers playing with a few extra days of rest, but Philadelphia face a similarly tough situation in Week 14 with another big game against rivals the Dallas Cowboys.
3) Baltimore Ravens (9-3): they are coming in off a Bye Week and the teams that I had placed in Number 4 and Number 5 positions last week both lost.
4) Detroit Lions (9-3): they remain an outside contender to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and that would be huge for the Lions. A solid win in New Orleans has to be respected, but the Defensive unit need to step up their level to really give the fans belief that they could beat the top two NFC teams.
5) Dallas Cowboys (9-3): a win over a team with a winning record pushes the Dallas Cowboys into Number 5 this week, although they were not at their very best against the Seattle Seahawks. Week 14 is a big opportunity for the Cowboys to show they are 'for real' when hosting the Philadelphia Eagles and with an opportunity to really get back into the mix for the NFC East Divisional crown, as well as the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.
Both Kansas City and Jacksonville had to fall out of my top five after losing primetime games in Week 13 and they have work to do to really convince about winning a Super Bowl.
More belief will be with the Kansas City Chiefs considering their recent history, but they have not looked right this season and being carved up by Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers will have concerned one or two fans.
As a Miami Dolphins fan, perhaps I am used to seeing seasons end disappointingly and that is a reason they have not cracked the top five despite a big road win. However, the Dolphins are close and they will get an opportunity to prove themselves soon with some big regular season games to be played between now and Week 18. Win those and it will be easy to put them in the top five, but lose, and people will consider Miami a 'flat track bully' with the strength of schedule meaning they are perhaps not battle tested for PlayOff Football.
Picks for Week 14 will be placed in this thread, but I want no part of Thursday Night Football which looks a miserable game.
Both the Patriots and Steelers could be going in with backup Quarter Backs and I genuinely believe that 10 points wins the game.
It may make the points with the road underdog look appealing, but New England have been horrible Offensively and a 10-3 Steelers win would not surprise me at all. Then again, it is impossible to trust the Steelers with Mitchell Trubisky at Quarter Back and there will be better options to back later in Week 14.
Those Picks will be added over the next couple of days as I look to bounce back from the disappointing Week 13 selections.
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: A considerable upset was produced on Monday Night Football in Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season and that has once again pushed the Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) back towards the Wild Card spots in the AFC. Expectations had dipped after the Bengals lost three games in a row and had seen Joe Burrow go down with a season ending injury, but Jake Browning helped the team overcome the odds in winning in Jacksonville and has some momentum to take into Week 14.
The Bengals are hosting the Indianapolis Colts (7-5) who have won four games in a row and would be a Wild Card team in the Conference if the season was to end today. Indianapolis fans are perhaps even thinking about winning the AFC South having moved to just a single game behind the Jaguars after the latter were beaten by the Cincinnati Bengals, although two losses to Jacksonville means Indianapolis are effectively two games behind.
That will not matter much for a team who are ahead of the curve as far as their development goes.
After winning just four games in 2022 and starting the season with a rookie Quarter Back, the Indianapolis Colts were expected to be an also-ran while giving Anthony Richardson plenty of experience. Unfortunately Richardson was knocked out for the season early in the year and Gardner Minshew has shown that he is one of the better backups in the NFL.
In reality Minshew has perhaps been more of a hindrance than a help for an Indianapolis team that will want to power themselves through the running game and hope the Quarter Back avoids back-breaking mistakes. While he has still made some, in the main Gardner Minshew has just gotten out of his own way for long enough to help the Colts win four games in row.
Jonathan Taylor is expected to be absent again, but Zack Moss has made the most of his opportunities at Running Back and can help keep the Colts in front of the chains. Leaving Gardner Minshew in manageable down and distance is important for Indianapolis who will know that there are holes in the Cincinnati Secondary that can be exploited as they look for a big win over a potential Wild Card rival.
The expectation is that the Quarter Back will be able to make enough plays through the air to keep the chains moving and the Colts could have a strong day.
Perhaps more important to the outcome of the game is the return of Grover Stewart to the Indianapolis Defensive Line- they have struggled to stop the run without him, but Stewart was a big part of the early successes Indianapolis had at the line of scrimmage and they will be looking to bottle up Joe Mixon after his big outing in a primetime spot on Monday.
The Bengals Offensive Line have been playing well of late so have to be respected, but having Stewart back should help the Colts as they look to force Jake Browning to beat them through the air.
Jake Browning will not be lacking confidence after his showing to help the Bengals beat the Jaguars, but this Colts Secondary is playing better than the Jacksonville one. He will also be under some real pressure from the Indianapolis pass rush, which has been really effective during their winning run and makes up for some of the big rushing holes that have been given up in recent games.
That pressure up front has helped Indianapolis no end and they can give Jake Browning more troubles than Jacksonville did. You can still expect Ja'Marr Chase to pick up his yards, but the Colts may make a few more stops and that can help them win this one on the road.
The expectation is that the Colts Defensive unit can show up in Week 14 and they can make enough plays to just bring Jake Browning back down to earth and it looks wise to take the points with the road underdog who have every reason to belive they win outright.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: There is an extremely outside chance that the Chicago Bears (4-8) can use their Week 12 upset of the Minnesota Vikings to push a late run towards the Wild Card places. One of those spots will be taken by the team that finishes second in the NFC East, but the other two places are available for any team that can produce a late run.
The Bears would likely need to win out, but that might get them close considering they have to play the likes of the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers before the end of the regular season.
They can also play with some freedom knowing the Carolina Panthers are doing all they can to ensure the Chicago Bears finish with the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft again. That will put some pressure on Justin Fields to show he can be the player that can become the franchise Quarter Back for the Chicago Bears, while Head Coach Matt Eberflus may need a strong end to the season to ensure he has another year in charge.
All of this will be in the thinking of the Bears as they come out of their Bye Week and prepare to face the Detroit Lions (9-3) for the second time in four weeks. The Bears should have earned the road upset at the Lions in Week 11, but fell to a late loss and that will give the home team plenty of motivation.
Detroit Head Coach Dan Campbell has played down the revenge factor, but the additional chance to play spoiler for a NFC North rival will charge up the Chicago crowd.
After winning on the road in Week 13, another road game is a tough scheduling spot for a Lions team that is much more effective indoors than they are outdoors. The win in New Orleans was within their dome, but this is going to be much tougher for Detroit with the tough December Chicago conditions a real factor.
The fact is that they are also playing an improving Chicago Defense who have had young players building experience in 2023. The Lions will look for David Montgomery to establish the run against his former team alongside Jahmyr Gibbs and that will be important to keep Detroit in front of the chains and make life a little more comfortable for Jared Goff.
In recent games Goff has been guilty of making some mistakes, while he is going to be facing a Chicago pass rush that has picked up since trading for Montez Sweat. The pressure up front has helped the Bears Secondary and Interceptions could be key for the home team looking to earn the upset.
Creating short fields will help the Chicago Quarter Back who returned from an injury to produce a strong game in the loss to the Lions in Week 11. Justin Fields had a decent throwing day, but was a real menace on the ground and the dual-threat Quarter Back is likely to have a similar outing in this one.
His ability to scramble inside the pocket should help Justin Fields find just enough time to throw down the field. The passing numbers are not particularly eye-catching, but Justin Fields has avoided making the mistakes through the air that has allowed Chicago to move the ball, although the Quarter Back will have to handle the ball better when scrambling after some fumbles that almost cost the Bears against the Minnesota Vikings.
Since being Drafted by the Bears, Justin Fields has played well against the Detroit Lions and similar is expected here. Chicago have not been very good coming out of a Bye Week in recent seasons, but they have matched up well with the Lions and they can keep this one close.
It is recommended to take more than a Field Goal worth of points where you can in a game that could potentially land on the key number 3 for either of these teams. However, there is every chance that is in favour of Chicago with this improved team having a Bye Week to really put a good game plan together and the Bears can be backed with the points as a home underdog.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns Pick: Before the Monday Night Football game in Week 13, some were wondering if the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) may have enough to earn the Number 1 Seed in the AFC.
Things can change very quickly in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence has picked up an injury that the Jaguars are hoping will 'only' keep him out of a couple of games and there are other banged up players on the Offensive side of the ball with Travis Etienne playing through an injury and Christian Kirk also sidelined. After allowing Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals do what they like on Monday Night Football, the Jacksonville Jaguars may now be worrying about falling into the Wild Card battle, never mind chasing the Number 1 Seed.
It almost certainly going to be CJ Beathard at Quarter Back for the Jaguars and he has a difficult task facing the Cleveland Browns (7-5) who continue to send out a very strong Defensive unit onto the field.
Back to back losses through Quarter Back injuries of their own have slowed down some of the momentum, but the Browns still hold the Number 5 Seed in the AFC. Deshaun Watson is not coming back this season, but veteran Joe Flacco played well enough in Week 13 to offer encouragement, while Dorian Thompson-Robinson could also be back this week having flashed some positive signs in replacement of Watson.
Both may be used in Week 14, although the Browns will be looking for them to manage the game.
Instead the focus will be on Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt who are likely going to be getting plenty of touches in what is likely to be wet conditions on Sunday afternoon. Both Running Backs are playing well enough to pick up from where Joe Mixon left off and they will be able to pound the rock between the tackles with success, while also showing off an ability to break some big gains as pass-catching Backs.
It should mean the Quarter Back, whoever it is, has a bit more time to make their throws and the Browns will be hoping that Amari Cooper is able to suit up. He is the concussion protocol so has to be considered doubtful, but the Browns will believe they can get enough from the Running Backs to at least move the chains and score the points that the Defensive unit can defend.
The Defensive of the ball is where Cleveland look to have a big edge and Jacksonville being without their starting Quarter Back may have a real problem moving the ball with any consistency.
Recent games have seen teams being able to establish the run against the Browns Defensive Line, although it is much more difficult to believe Jacksonville can do the same. With CJ Beathard behind Center, the Cleveland plan has to be shutting down Travis Etienne and seeing if the backup can find spaces against a tough Secondary to keep the First Downs coming.
Trevor Lawrence with Evan Engram, Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk could have given the Cleveland Secondary something to think about.
Two of those four are not expected to suit up though and that should help the Browns who can earn a big home win that puts them right back on track as far as the Wild Card spots go.
While it has been an up and down season for Cleveland, the Browns are 3-0 against the spread when set as the home favourite. With a bit of an advantage of an extra day to prepare, Cleveland can run the ball right at the Jaguars and force a couple of mistakes from a backup Quarter Back to ensure they win this game and cover the line set.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The scheduling spot may not be the best for the San Francisco 49ers (9-3) as they come off a really big, statement making win in Week 13. The fact they are facing a Divisional rival that they blew out on the road in Week 12 might make the spot that much worse with so many talking up the 49ers, but the opportunity to earn the top Seed in the NFC will not be lost on the home team.
They face the Seattle Seahawks (6-6) again having demolished them on Thanksgiving Day on the road, while the road team will have had a mini-Bye having last played on Thursday Night Football. They put in a big effort, but ultimately came up short against the Dallas Cowboys, and even optimistic Head Coach Pete Carroll is not entirely sure if the Seahawks will be able to earn a Wild Card place.
Carroll has made it clear that he believes his team are good enough, but injuries are hurting the Seahawks as they continue to chug through an incredibly difficult run of games. Losing at the Los Angeles Rams will have been a disappointment, but Seattle have since been beaten by the 49ers and Dallas Cowboys and now face this rematch before hosting the Philadelphia Eagles.
The last three games look more winnable, but 9-8 may not be good enough for a Wild Card berth and so this is a big game for the Seahawks to try and reverse recent momentum.
Scoring enough points to do that will be incredibly challenging, despite the big performance at the Dallas Cowboys. Geno Smith and DK Metcalf both looked much healthier and have a few more days to prepare for this game than they would usually, but now they are facing a team that limited the Seahawks to just 220 Offensive yards two weeks ago.
Establishing the run will be extremely challenging for the Seahawks who could be without both Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet for this Week 14 game. Even with those two lining up, they would be facing a 49ers Defensive Line that effectively clamped down on the Eagles up front and so the pressure will be on Geno Smith at Quarter Back.
He was protected well enough in the loss to the Dallas Cowboys, but Smith was hit hard by the 49ers pass rush on Thanksgiving Day and has to expect the pressure to be all around him again. The 49ers have really rattled opposition Quarter Backs in recent games and it will mean Smith has to get the ball out of his hands quicker than he would like, while trying to expose a San Francisco Secondary that has been playing well enough.
Once again it feels like it will be a tough Offensive day for Seattle, while almost certainly going to be another day in the office for Brock Purdy and the 49ers.
Better health has led to some big Offensive performances for the 49ers and they are certainly looking like they are going to be in peak form heading into the PlayOffs. Brock Purdy has pushed himself into the MVP conversation, while Christian McCaffrey continues to churn out big yards running the ball or catching out of the backfield.
Christian McCaffrey helped the 49ers pick up 169 yards on the ground in the win over Seattle in Week 12 and he is expected to be a key part of establishing the run again. That will put the 49ers in a positive position whenever they have the ball and Brock Purdy should be able to make a few plays in the passing game to keep things moving.
With the run likely to be established and with a healthier Offensive Line, San Francisco should be able to hurt the Seahawks Secondary down the field. Even short passes to the likes of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk never feel too far away from breaking open for big gains and George Kittle should also have a strong outing.
As mentioned, the spot is far from ideal after a hugely impressive statement making win in Week 13 and now facing a rested Divisional rival looking for revenge.
However, in saying that, the 49ers have won four in a row in the series and three of those wins have been by at least 18 point margins.
Since their Bye Week, the 49ers have won four in a row overall and all of those wins have been by at least 13 points, while San Francisco are 14-1 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season.
Covering this kind of line is never easy and there is always the potential for a backdoor cover, but San Francisco look focused and hungry Defensively and they can make enough plays to crush this NFC West rival again.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There has been a report out this week that has been very critical of Sean McDermott, although most are considering it a 'hit job' seeing as the criticisms are about events that took place several years ago.
The Buffalo Bills (6-6) Head Coach has apologised again, but the team are focusing on coming out of their Bye Week and looking to turn things around in what has been an underachieving season. The late Bye Week should help the players clear away some of the knocks and bruises, while there is clearly still time to right their ship even if the AFC East Divisional crown looks beyond them.
With just five games left, the Bills know they are in dangerous territory when it comes to potentially missing the PlayOffs. Recent seasons have seen the team narrowly miss out on a Super Bowl appearance, but the window feels like it may be closing on the current roster and big changes may be made if they are unable to earn a spot in the post-season and then have a deep run.
The remaining five games are far from easy and the Bills open with this tough game at Arrowhead against the slumping Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) who have lost three of their last five games. That has seen them lose some ground in the race to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, but a win here puts them back on track and Kansas City have not lost two in a row all season.
Kansas City have bounced back from all three losses to produce strong wins and covers of the spread line set so they have to be hugely respected. Despite perhaps not playing up the level we have come to expect, the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back and the feeling is that he will get this team out of a slump and begin to build some momentum to take into the post-season.
Following this game, the Chiefs have a manageable looking schedule and a win would likely mean they are favourites to still finish with the best record in the AFC.
However, winning will be a challenge for Kansas City who have lost their last three home regular season games against the Buffalo Bills. There is no doubt that the latter have been built to knock off the Chiefs who have been considered the best team in the AFC in recent years and the Buffalo Bills have every chance of doing that again, despite their poor run of form into the Bye Week.
Injuries to key Defensive players have not helped, but Kansas City are likely going to be without Isaiah Pacheco who has established himself as arguably the third best skill player on the Offensive side of the ball behind Mahomes and Travis Kelce. He has been running the ball really well in recent games, but the Chiefs may struggle for a really strong impact on the ground if Pacheco is sitting out.
You have to believe that Patrick Mahomes will still have success throwing the ball, although his Receivers have been guilty of some big drops. The Quarter Back is likely going to be facing up to some pass rush pressure with Von Miller in the Buffalo line up despite an arrest for a domestic issue during the Bye Week, and that may help stall enough drives to give the Bills a chance of the 'upset'.
It will be interesting to see what kind of plan Buffalo have put together on the Offensive side of the ball having recently fired Ken Dorsey as Offensive Co-Ordinator. The Bills have perhaps not run the ball as they would have liked, but they have to have noticed the success the Packers had doing that against Kansas City in Week 13 and James Cook and Josh Allen should be able to pick up some big yards on the ground.
This will be important for Josh Allen to try and help him reduce some of the mistakes he has made when throwing the ball- over the course of the season, Allen has 13 Interceptions already, which is only one shy of his 2022 total, while the Quarter Back has not been as effective getting the ball into the End Zone through the air.
Being in third and manageable should make it easier to attack a Kansas City Secondary that struggled against Jordan Love at times last week. The Offensive Line has been able to keep the pocket clean for Josh Allen in recent games and the Bills can come out and make the plays they need on the Offensive side of the ball to win this one on the road.
Beating the Kansas City Chiefs is never a foregone conclusion and this is a team that is 13-8 against the spread following a loss since Patrick Mahomes became the official starting Quarter Back. That includes covering in all three of those situations this season, but the expectation is that Sean McDermott will have a strong plan in mind and the Buffalo Head Coach is 7-0 outright after a Bye Week.
A motivated and desperate Buffalo team have won here on the road in October 2021 and October 2022 and the feeling is that the Bills will have enough on both sides of the ball to just take advantage of a banged up and out of sync Kansas City team.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The NFC East battle is likely to go down to the wire, but you have to favour the Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) to become the first team in twenty years to win back to back Divisional titles. The Dallas Cowboys (9-3) will have something to say about that and a win for the Cowboys will put them in a strong position, but the remaining schedule looks to favour Philadelphia even if they end up on the wrong side of the result.
That is not to say that this game matters more to the Cowboys.
While a defeat will effectively mean entering the Wild Card, the Philadelphia Eagles may feel a loss will make them second favourites to earn the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. Despite the heavy home loss to the 49ers, you cannot underestimate the benefit of earning a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs by taking the Number 1 Seed as well as obviously having home advantage through the post-season for as long as that team is involved.
Since the new format of the PlayOffs, the Number 1 Seed in both Conferences has been a huge advantage and that means there is plenty on the line for the Eagles having lost to the 49ers and only holding a game advantage over San Francisco.
With that in mind, it looks a bad time to be banged up.
Jalen Hurts is going to go through the pain, but the Quarter Back did have to head back to the locker room in Week 13 as the 49ers really took it to the Eagles. This is another tough Defensive unit that Philadelphia will have to face and Philadelphia may struggle to run the ball as they did in the defeat to San Francisco.
If the Quarter Back is not feeling up to full health, the pressure is only going to make it tougher for Jalen Hurts as he throws from third and long. The Cowboys are likely going to be spying on Hurts if he takes off to run, while they do get plenty of pressure up front to try and rattle him.
Of course you have to respect the Philadelphia Offensive Line which did give Jalen Hurts time last week.
He has the Receivers to make some plays down the field, including a returning Dallas Goedert and so Jalen Hurts will likely be able to move the ball, although becoming one-dimensional would make it tough to find a lot of consistency on the Offensive side of the ball.
The Eagles should have success, but the same can be said for the Dallas Cowboys.
Mike McCarthy is expected to be on the sidelines calling his own plays and the Cowboys have been very good at home as they look to show they can beat one of the better teams in the NFL. They will be confident of picking up where San Francisco left off and that means establishing the run and keeping Dak Prescott in a positive position on the field.
Tony Pollard is not Christian McCaffrey, but he can be effective as both a runner and pass catching Back and he can at least keep the Cowboys in a strong position. The Offensive Line have opened up some solid running lanes, while they have also been very good in pass protection and that should mean Prescott has time to find his Receivers down the field with Brandon Cooks and CeeDee Lamb both capable of making the big catches for him.
Having that second option next to Lamb is key for Dallas and the feeling is that the Cowboys will have another strong Offensive output after producing over 400 yards in the first meeting between these NFC East rivals.
The Cowboys will have been very disappointed by that 5 point loss in Philadelphia, but they do look capable of earning revenge in their own Stadium where they have been dominant this season.
Dallas had over 100 yards more than the Eagles in the first meeting, while they have had more rest to prepare for this Week 14 game.
Philadelphia looked fatigued at the end of the loss to San Francisco having played Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo and the 49ers in a five week stretch and that could be a factor at the end of this one too. Add in the strength the Cowboys have shown at home and the feeling is that Dallas will earn revenge in this one and put the Eagles Number 1 Seed in jeopardy.
Some will expect the Eagles to bounce back after a rare loss, but they are 1-3 against the spread in the week after a defeat since the beginning of the 2022 season.
The Cowboys did not cover in Week 13, but they are 10-3 against the spread as the home favourite over the last season and a half and it is nice to be able to go against the public and back the home team in this Sunday Night Football clash.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: The first season without Aaron Rodgers leading from Quarter Back looked to be drifting aimlessly, but Jordan Love looks to have finally figured something out. The inexperience was clear to see earlier in the season, but Love has helped the Green Bay Packers (6-6) win four of five games and they would have a Wild Card place in the NFC if the season ended today.
A lot of credit has to be given to the young players, but the Coaching Staff deserve praise for sticking with Jordan Love and giving him a good plan.
The expectation is that Love and the Packers Offensive unit can have another big showing after impressing in the win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. That is a statement win and the Packers have to be careful about not looking past the New York Giants (4-8) who have won two in a row and who are coming out of a Bye Week with an outside chance of pushing for a return to the post-season.
Brian Daboll guided his team through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs last season and he will know his Giants team likely needs to win out if they are going to make the PlayOffs. There will be no mistaking how tough that will be considering the five games left, but all the Giants can do is come out in Week 14 and hope they can move another game closer to 0.500 for the year.
Tommy DeVito will continue to play at Quarter Back in place of the injured Daniel Jones, but this is a position that will likely be upgraded in the off-season. A new found fame will hopefully not go to DeVito's head after back to back wins, but this is another tough Defensive unit that will be in front of him and one that just made life very difficult for Patrick Mahomes.
The Giants may need to follow the Chiefs plan and that will be to run the ball through Saquon Barkley against the Packers Defensive Line which has struggled to clamp down up front. Getting Barkley going and keeping Tommy DeVito in front of the chains will give New York a chance, but this will only be effective as long as the game is close.
Any time the Giants are in obvious passing situations, the struggling Offensive Line will have a hard time keeping the Packers from flooding into the backfield and hitting the Quarter Back over and over again. Sacks and hurried throws stall Offensive drives and that will be the plan for the Packers as they look to secure another important victory.
A team coming out of a Bye Week will likely have worked on a solid game plan, but the New York Giants may not have the personnel to stop the Green Bay Packers when Jordan Love is on the field.
He may be going without Christian Watson, who continues to prove himself to be a valuable Receiving target when he is able to get on the field. Injuries have held Watson back in his relatively short NFL career and he will be a miss, while Aaron Jones looks like he may have to miss another week too.
However, AJ Dillon ran through the pain very effectively in the win over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Packers are likely going to be able to produce some big yards on the ground again.
That should aid Jordan Love, who is capable of scrambling for First Downs too, and he still has skill players that he can target in the passing game. In recent games, Love is averaging over 270 passing yards per game and has been well protected by his Offensive Line and both of these situations could show up again on Monday Night Football.
It should mean the Packers are able to pick up from where they left off in Week 13 and the scoring power can see them pull away as a big road favourite.
Green Bay have won their last two games by at least 7 point margins, but this is a different spot for them as they were big underdogs against the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. Expectations are much more pressurised as the favourite, especially by this margin on the road, but the Packers are playing well enough to win and cover against a struggling New York Giants Offensive unit.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The NFL are trying something different in Week 14 of the 2023 season and that is not only by having two Monday Night Football games, but to have both played at the same time. The thinking behind that is harder to understand, but that is what the fans have to deal with as they get to choose between the Packers-Giants or this game.
The other is expected to be more competitive as the Miami Dolphins (9-3) head into this game as a huge favourite over the Tennessee Titans (4-8). The home team are chasing the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, while the road team have lost four of their last five games and are on the brink of elimination as far as the post-season is concerned.
After pushing the Indianapolis Colts to Overtime last week and still coming up short, you do have to wonder about the motivations of the Titans. It is an incredibly long shot for them to make the PlayOffs, even if they win out, while there has to be a huge motivation to try and play spoiler for Divisional rivals Houston and Jacksonville who make up three of their remaining four games.
No team ever wants to throw a game away, but it is very hard to imagine getting a full effort from the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football and the oddsmakers in Vegas clearly feel the same.
As has been the case in recent years, the Tennessee Titans very much feel like an Offensive unit that will go as far as Derrick Henry will take them. With a rookie Quarter Back, teams have really focused on closing down the Running Back and may have been effective at doing that, even if Derrick Henry will still be capable of a big gain at any time.
The Titans will be facing an improving Miami Defensive Line when it comes to playing the run and so they may need more out of Will Levis at Quarter Back. That may be asking too much against this healthier Miami Secondary which has been making plenty of big plays through the air, while the Dolphins can generate a pass rush to rattle Levis behind Center.
Jaelan Phillips will be a big loss in the bigger games to come, but Miami can still find a way into the backfield in this one and they may be able to shut down the Titans Offensively.
It will be up to the Titans Defense to try and keep this close and they may have some success against the high-powered Miami Offensive unit that piled up over 400 yards in their 45-15 win over the Washington Commanders in Week 13.
The Titans Defensive Line has remained pretty stout when playing the run, so it may not be easy for Mike McDaniels and his Miami team to get going on the ground. This has been an important part of the Miami successes in 2023, although the Head Coach will use plenty of motion and bubble screens in lieu of a run game if that is necessary.
Tua Tagovailoa will likely be used to expose the Titans Secondary, which is where the weakness of this Defensive unit can be seen, and he should be able to make some big connections with Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Last week Jayden Waddle had 52 yards and Tyreek Hill had 157 yards with 2 Touchdowns and the feeling is that these two players will be key in blowing this game open.
The Quarter Back has been well protected by the Offensive Line so those routes should be able to develop down the field and the Dolphins can win this one big.
Earning the Number 1 Seed in the AFC should keep the motivation high for the home team and the Defensive unit can make one or two late plays to just ensure this very big line is covered by the home favourite.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins - 13.5 Points @ 2.00 Coral (1 Unit)
Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)
Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)
Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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