With only four places available for those chasing a National Championship, there is very little room for error, while a number of one loss teams hope to force their way into the conversation.
In twelve months time, there is not going to be nearly as much drama in the final two weeks with the College Football PlayOff format expanded to be available for twelve teams. You could pick the top twelve from this season without much drama and that may not be the best thing for the College Football regular season going forward, even if the fans could benefit from some big time PlayOff action.
Ultimately finding the balance between a competitive and meaningful regular season and a strong PlayOff format is not easy- only the NFL seems to have gotten that right so far, but no one would be surprised if there another PlayOff expansion sooner rather than later and they may end up moving in a similar direction as some of the other major North American sports.
Only one change occurred in the top four College Football Rankings when the Washington Huskies moved ahead of the Florida State Seminoles.
The Huskies were winners as road underdogs in Week 12 and they will likely be selected for the College Football PlayOff if they can win their remaining two games, although the Oregon Ducks look a significant Conference danger.
We don't really know why the Committee selects the teams in the positions they do from week to week, but there has to be have been some impact from the Jordan Travis injury.
The Florida State Quarter Back suffered a serious looking injury in Week 12 and you can only hope that Travis will make a full recovery as he hopes to continues to his career at the next level.
Despite losing a key player, the Seminoles will still believe an unbeaten season would be good enough for them to earn a top four place in the final standings, especially as Ohio State and Michigan are facing one another in Week 13.
However, that path looks much more troubling without Jordan Travis and the Seminoles might actually be an underdog when they face the Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Championship Game.
Rivalry Week is coming up though and so much can change with motivation to play spoiler extremely high for those underdogs playing some of the Ranked teams over the next couple of days.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: They have already secured the Big Ten West Divisional title and the Iowa Hawkeyes (9-2) will be looking for double digit winning season as soon as the end of Week 12.
However, there is a feeling that the Hawkeyes could overlook this final game of the regular season knowing they are playing in the Big Ten Championship Game next week no matter what. It may mean they do not want to risk key players, and the Hawkeyes have been playing with tight margins even when their best available team has been put on the field.
They head to Lincoln to play the Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-6) who are at the beginning of what first year Head Coach Matt Rhule considers to be a significant transitional period to bring the Cornhuskers back up amongst the best teams in College Football.
It has been a difficult period, but the Rhule knows how close the Cornhuskers are to earning Bowl eligibility with just a single win needed. The Head Coach has overseen three losses in a row and those have been by a combined 13 points and led to some frustration that his Nebraska team have not already reached the six win cut off point.
Earning that sixth win against the Hawkeyes is going to be a considerable challenge, although the Nebraska Cornhuskers will know they are not going to be blown away by this opponent.
As impressive as Iowa have been Defensively, they have been struggling Offensively and that has led to an unprecedented run of total points line set by the oddsmakers. Right now they cannot make that total line low enough with the Hawkeyes playing six consecutive 'unders' and the line is at 25.5 total points for this one.
Barring a complete loss of focus for Iowa, which cannot be completely ruled out, it also makes the points being given to the road underdog look pretty appealing.
Iowa are Offensively challenged and they are not going to find a lot of room to operate against the Nebraska Defensive unit. Running the ball has been tough, while the Hawkeyes have not really had a Quarter Back that they can rely upon.
Deacon Hill is likely to get the call at Quarter Back, while the Hawkeyes will still give Leshon Williams a lot of carries and hope he can rip something open. The Nebraska Secondary have allowed some passing lanes to develop and Hill may be able to expose those at some point, especially as he is likely going to have some time in the pocket.
On Thursday night, Brock Purdy will be playing an important NFL game on Thanksgiving Day, and on Friday his younger brother Chubba Purdy is expected to be given the start by Nebraska at Quarter Back. Chubba Purdy, like Jeff Sims and Heinrich Haarberg, is a dual threat Quarter Back and that is going to be key for the Cornhuskers as they look to find a way to move the ball against this tough Iowa Defensive unit.
Nebraska's Offensive Line have helped establish the run, but Purdy and the Cornhuskers may not find much change out of this Hawkeyes Defensive Line.
They do not match up that well with the Hawkeyes Offensively and Chubba Purdy might not have many good places to throw the ball. The Hawkeyes should be able to generate some pressure with their pass rush and that may lead to a couple of mistakes, which shifts the game in favour of Iowa.
The Cornhuskers have not been the best home favourite to back and even this relatively small spread looks like one that the Iowa Hawkeyes can use to their advantage, even in a losing effort.
Nebraska are highly motivated to try and secure a Bowl bid, but the Hawkeyes should also want to build momentum into the Big Ten Championship Game and this should be another low-scoring, grinder Iowa have been involved in.
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Texas Longhorns Pick: This has been a season when a number of old rivalries will be played for the last time for the foreseeable future and this is another one of those games in the Big 12 Conference.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-5) do not need a lot of motivation to want to play spoiler for the Texas Longhorns (10-1), but doing that in the final season that the Longhorns are playing in the Big 12 would be all the sweeter.
Even a loss may not prevent Texas from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, but they have a loss already on the record and the Red Raiders could end any Longhorns hopes of making the College Football PlayOff by winning in Austin.
Three wins in a row has given the Red Raiders some momentum and they certainly will believe they can move the ball against this Texas Defensive unit. However, much is going to depend on Behren Morton at Quarter Back even if Tahj Brooks has been the best Offensive option for the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The problem for the Red Raiders is that Brooks is going to find it very difficult to pound the rock against the Texas Defensive Line which has been strong against the run all season. Even in recent games, the Longhorns have held teams to an average of 1.7 yards per carry and so it will be tough for Tahj Brooks to continue his strong season in which he has churned out 100 yards per game on the ground on a weekly basis.
Behren Morton is going to be the starting Quarter Back and Tyler Shough has announced that he will be entering the transfer portal- this may allow Morton to play with some freedom against a Longhorns Secondary that has given up plenty of passing yards in recent games.
It will be important for Texas Tech to have the confidence in Behren Morton to make his throws in what could be a potential shoot out with the Texas Longhorns.
The one key difference between these teams is that the Longhorns should have a lot more Offensive balance compared with Texas Tech and that should give them the edge as they look to secure a Big 12 Championship Game appearance.
Establishing the run will be challenging for the Red Raiders, but the Longhorns Offensive Line should be able to open up some big holes up front. CJ Baxter came in as the starting Running Back for Jonathan Brooks, who has had his season ended by injury, and he picked up where Brooks left off with a strong performance on the ground and can certainly do the same here.
It should mean Quinn Ewers can have another solid day throwing the ball for the Texas Longhorns without having to push himself too hard as he continues his recovery from a shoulder injury. Having Ewers returning at Quarter Back is a positive for the Texas Longhorns and playing in front of the chains should mean he can attack this Red Raiders Secondary with real confidence.
With a limited pass rush trying to deal with this strong Offensive Line, Quinn Ewers will have time to make his decisions and Texas should be able to do enough to pull away for an important victory.
There is pressure to win and secure a place in the Big 12 Championship Game, while keeping the College Football PlayOff hopes alive, but Texas have shown they can cope in recent games. They have not been able to put up the big Offensive points as they would have liked, but the Longhorns can use the home crowd to wear down the Texas Tech Red Raiders and win this one by a couple of Touchdowns.
Michigan State Spartans vs Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Being in the Big Ten East Division means having to face two of the current top three in the College Football Rankings and that has proven to be a step too far for the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2).
The record is one that the players should be proud of, but both Penn State losses have been to the unbeaten Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes. Performances outside of those two games have been very strong and even those two losses have been in tight, competitive outings.
It makes the Nittany Lions one of the better teams in College Football, although that is not likely to be reflected in their eventual Bowl Game.
Well that is also on the assumption that the two top Big Ten East teams are not both invited into the College Football PlayOff, although there is still a possibility for whichever of the teams lose when the Wolverines and Buckeyes meet in Week 13.
The Nittany Lions are big favourites when travelling to the Michigan State Spartans (4-7), who are probably glad to see the back of this season. The Spartans have had to fire their Head Coach mid-season for off field issues, while they have looked considerably short compared to their other Divisional rivals.
However, Michigan State have won two of their last three games, both in the Big Ten Conference, and that may give them some confidence.
This game is being played in Detroit rather than on the Michigan State campus, and that is a disappointment to the fans even if they are expected to travel. The Spartans will be more concerned with trying to find a way to move the ball with any kind of consistency as they face one of the top Defensive units not only in the Conference, but in College Football.
It might have helped if the Spartans had shown any Offensive consistency prior to Week 13, but that has not been the case. The Spartans will struggle to run the ball and that only increases the pressure on Katin Houser at Quarter Back who had 245 passing yards in Week 12 with 3 Touchdown passes, although he did also have 2 Interceptions against the Indiana Hoosiers.
Throwing against the Indiana Secondary is much 'easier' than being able to do so against the Penn State Nittany Lions who have held teams to 161 passing yards per game for the season. Even the top Quarter Backs in the Conference have struggled to find much consistency throwing the ball against the Penn State Secondary and Houser is not expected to have a lot of good fortune in this game.
Being able to establish the run should give the Penn State Nittany Lions an edge in this game and they can pick up some big gains on the ground. In recent games, the Spartans Defensive Line have allowed teams to average 4.5 yards per carry and pick up over 175 yards per game on the ground and that is while facing some of the weaker teams in the Conference.
Now they have to deal with this tough Penn State Offensive Line and the expectation is that the Nittany Lions will be able to establish the run and make things easy for whoever starts at Quarter Back.
Drew Allar is expected to be available, but Beau Primula filled in when Allar went down with an injury at Quarter Back last week and is expected to be given some snaps in this one regardless. Both were more effective as runners last week, but they should be able to attack this Spartans Secondary with some success.
The Penn State Offensive Line is not only effective in run blocking, but they have given the Quarter Back time in the pocket and the Nittany Lions should be able to move the ball and score enough points to cover a big line.
With the Defensive unit expected to largely contain the Michigan State Spartans on the other side of the ball, Penn State should become the latest of the top teams in the Big Ten who crush the Michigan State Spartans. In a neutral setting, the Nittany Lions should be able to pull clear and produce another big win after beating Rutgers by 21 ponts last week.
Head Coach James Franklin is known for covering as a favourite in his time leading the Penn State Nittany Lions and his team have the best 'cover rate' as a favourite since 2014.
They are 8-1 against the spread as the favourite this season and Franklin is not afraid of running up the score when his team are on top. That may be the case in this Week 13 game and Penn State can win and cover in this 'road' game against the Michigan State Spartans.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Louisville Cardinals Pick: The large majority of 'Rivalry Week' games will involve teams playing in the same Conference, but there are some that matter even if they don't have Conference implications.
One of those takes place on Saturday when the Louisville Cardinals (10-1) try to snap a four game losing run against rivals Kentucky Wildcats (6-5). Both teams have already secured some of their aims this season with the Cardinals playing in the ACC Championship Game and the Wildcats being Bowl eligible, but there is no doubting the in-State rivalry and what it means to the fans, the players and the Coaching Staff involved.
A 12-1 season is entirely possible for the Louisville Cardinals, but the PlayOff Committee have shown little appetite to push them up the College Rankings. It means even winning the ACC Championship is unlikely to end with a place in the top four and the PlayOff, but there will be plenty of other teams around the nation looking for the Cardinals to snap the Florida State unbeaten run if the Seminoles are able to get out of this week.
Jeff Brohm will know all about the importance of focusing on this week having been a former Quarter Back with Louisville and the Head Coach is having a very successful first season in charge. His reputation as a Head Coach is growing and growing, but Brohm knows what makes the fans happy and that means winning this game.
Louisville have won four in a row since their upset loss against the Pittsburgh Panthers, although the Defensive unit have not been at their best in the last couple of weeks. That will need to improve if they are going to win out this season, although the Cardinals do look to match up well with the Kentucky Offensive unit that has just struggled down the stretch.
The Cardinals are strong at the Defensive Line and will force the Wildcats to take to the air in order to move the chains. Ray Davis will get the yards he needs to earn 1000 yards for the season on the ground, but the Wildcats need to be more consistent with their passing game and will not be able to afford the mistakes they made in losing to the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 12.
Nothing will be easy for Louisville on the other side of the ball as they look to also establish the run, but more consistent play out of the Quarter Back position will mean Kentucky cannot focus solely on clamping down on the run. Jack Plummer will need to play a clean game to just open up some of the running lanes, but he has played well enough at Quarter Back and has thrown over 550 yards and 5 Touchdown passes in his last couple of starts.
You cannot ignore the dominance that the Kentucky Wildcats have enjoyed in this Rivalry series over the last four years, but the edge has to be with the Louisville Cardinals on current form. Covering this number will not be easy considering some of the inconsistent performances on both sides of the ball over the last couple of weeks, but the Kentucky Wildcats have been having a tough time with five losses in six games.
They have suffered some blowout defeats in that time and the Louisville Cardinals can roll into the ACC Championship Game having given the fans at home a very good send off in the 2023 season.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: The Georgia Bulldogs may be the current Number 1 team in the College Football Rankings, but the next two places are filled by the top two teams in the Big Ten. Both cannot make it through to the Championship Game though as the Michigan Wolverines (11-0) prepare to host the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) with the Big Ten East Division on the line.
Ultimately the winner is going to be a huge favourite to win the Big Ten Championship Game and they will then be almost certainly going to be selected to play in the College Football PlayOff.
Things will be a lot murkier for the losing team with one loss on the record and without the chance to make amends by winning a Conference Championship. Last season it did not prevent both the Buckeyes and Wolverines in making the PlayOff despite the latter winning this huge rivalry game.
Both ended up being narrowly beaten in those PlayOff Games without making the National Championship Game, but the focus this year is to win this final regular season game and move onto the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa next week.
Unsurprisingly these teams are really matched up well and it does feel there will be little between them, even though the Michigan Wolverines have blown out the Buckeyes in each of the last two seasons. The Wolverines were big underdogs in both 2021 and 2022, but won those games by 15 and 22 points respectively, although the situation is going to feel different in 2023 with Michigan set as a favourite.
Seven of the last nine games between the Wolverines and Buckeyes have seen the underdog cover the spread and this is another where taking the points looks the best call.
On both sides of the ball, the trenches are going to be key.
However, the Ohio State Offensive Line have at least been helping produce much bigger plays compared with the Michigan Offensive Line and that may show up in this game. Blake Corum may be the stand out Running Back in the game, but his Wolverines Offensive Line may find it tough to really get something going against the Buckeyes Defensive Line, which means there is arguably going to be more pressure on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back compared with Kyle McCord.
Ohio State's Secondary play has been very strong in recent wins and the Buckeyes look to be peaking at the right time.
Avoiding errors is going to be the key and the team that wins the turnover battle will come out on top.
Picking out which of these teams will be able to do that is never going to be easy with the fine margins at play, but the feeling is that the Ohio State Buckeyes are playing at a slightly stronger level than the Michigan Wolverines right now.
Ryan Day and his players do have some mental demons to exorcise having been crushed by Michigan in back to back years, but they can certainly make enough plays to keep this one much closer. Having more than a Field Goal advantage in a rivalry that has been dominated by the underdog in recent years look like enough points to want to keep on your side and the Buckeyes can potentially win this one outright.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Auburn Tigers Pick: The SEC Championship Game is set for next week and that means the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1) still have hopes of making the College Football PlayOff. The loss to the Texas Longhorns will not be a massive issue if the Crimson Tide win out and the Longhorns win the Big 12 Championship, although that does mean Alabama winning two big games in a row.
They are effectively playing off a Bye having crushed an overmatched opponent in Week 12, but there has also been a familiar feel about Alabama over the last month. Earlier in the season it did look like being a transitional year for a team that hands off a lot of talent to the NFL every year, but the Crimson Tide are motoring now and their big wins over the Tennessee Volunteers and LSU Tigers have impressed, and the Crimson Tide are up to Number 8 in the PlayOff Rankings.
Beating the Auburn Tigers (6-5) may not impress the Committee too much, especially after the Tigers were embarrassingly beaten by the New Mexico State Aggies at home in Week 12. They were 25 point favourites, but Auburn were beaten by 21 points, while they had won three SEC games in succession and looked to be building momentum before the really disappointing defeat.
Some of the reasoning has to be that the Auburn Tigers were looking ahead to this big rivalry game as they hope to put the final nail in the coffin as far as the Alabama hopes of making the PlayOff are concerned. They will also have been keen to dent any Alabama confidence ahead of playing the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game and there is little doubt that Auburn are going to be a lot more focused and significantly better in Week 13 compared to what we saw in Week 12.
Payton Thorne is a dual-threat Quarter Back and it does feel like a game in which his legs will be more important than his arm, while Jarquez Hunter will also be expected to earn a lot of carries. The Auburn Offensive Line have been strong up front and there have been one or two holes in the Alabama Defensive Line in recent games which should give the home underdog an opportunity to establish the run.
While the game is competitive, it is imperative for Auburn to move the ball forward on the ground and give Thorne an opportunity to attack a Secondary which is playing well. Converting First Downs is clearly going to be easier from Third and Short situations and Auburn may actually make a few more Offensive plays than they managed in an unfocused defeat to the Aggies.
Moving the ball, extending drives and keeping the Alabama Offensive unit on the sidelines to lose rhythm will give Auburn the chance to keep this close, but it is unlikely that they will earn the upset.
After some early teething problems, Jalen Milroe and the Alabama Offense look to have found their mojo and they are rolling on this side of the ball.
The Quarter Back will be aided by his Offensive Line which has found their feet when it comes to run blocking and the Crimson Tide are expected to bully this Auburn Defensive Line. Alabama should be able to rip off some big plays on the ground and that is only going to make very comfortable for a confident Jalen Milroe who is playing at a level that many have come to expect from a Crimson Tide Quarter Back.
The Offensive Line have offered Milroe plenty of protection, although it will be a test to throw the ball against this Auburn Secondary.
However, Jalen Milroe has displayed his strength in the passing game since his early struggles and the expectation is that Alabama will be able to produce another big win against a Divisional rival.
Alabama have won three in a row against the Auburn Tigers and two of those wins have been in blowouts.
However, playing in Auburn is obviously going to be much tougher and the last three games between these rivals hosted by the Tigers have been really competitive. It is perhaps not wise to put too much stock into the Auburn performance last week, but the feeling is that Alabama may have just enough balance Offensively to pull clear and put a strong win on the board before the SEC Championship Game.
Arizona Wildcats @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: By the time this game kicks off, the situation at the top of the Pac-12 will have cleared up and the Arizona Wildcats (8-3) will know if a place in the Championship Game is still a possibility. Even if it isn't this has been a successful year for the Wildcats and winning this rivalry game will mean they are a Bowl win away from double digits for the season.
That should give the team plenty of motivation as they travel to the Arizona State Sun Devils (3-8) who will be glad that a tough season is about to come to a close.
They did upset the UCLA Bruins a couple of weeks ago and so the Sun Devils need to be afforded some respect, even if that result has been sandwiched by blowout losses to the Utah Utes and Oregon Ducks. There is a feeling that Arizona State could have been looking ahead to this game when being crushed by the Ducks in Week 12, although there is also no question that there is a talent gap between the teams.
Some may feel it is going to be more of the same in Week 13, although these rivalry games have a tendency to throw up a surprise result or two.
It just might be a real challenge for the Arizona State Offensive unit to find the consistency to move the ball against this Wildcats team. The Arizona Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run effectively all season and they may be looking to make Arizona State a little one-dimensional, which will then allow the Wildcats pass rush to flourish.
Jaden Rashada is hoping to return for Arizona State in this last game of the 2023 season, but it will be tough for any Quarter Back if the Sun Devils are not able to run the ball as is the expectation. There have been one or two holes in the Wildcats Secondary which can be exposed, but it is tough with the lack of inconsistency Arizona State have had out of the Quarter Back position, while even tougher when you think the team could be trying to make throws out of third and long positions.
A balanced Offensive unit is always going to be much tougher to defend than a potentially one-dimensional one and the Arizona Wildcats look to have an edge on the other side of the ball. While their own Defensive Line has been stout against the run, the Arizona Offensive Line have been able to open up some big running lanes and now face a Sun Devils Defensive Line that have been really been worn down over the last month.
Jonah Coleman should be able to add plenty of yards on the ground and it should make life very comfortable for Noah Fifita at Quarter Back.
He has really been a revelation for Arizona at the position and Fifita should have time in the pocket to hurt an Arizona State Secondary that has been given up plenty of yards through the air.
With this in mind, it does feel like the Wildcats are going to be able to move the ball much more consistently and efficiently than the Arizona State Sun Devils and that can play out on the scoreboard.
As mentioned, rivalry games have a habit of throwing the form book out of the window, but the Wildcats should be focused and winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball gives them a serious edge.
The underdog has covered in five of the last seven between these schools, but Arizona did snap a five game losing run outright when beating Arizona State last year. That was a victory by 3 points in a game they were favoured to win by 4 points, but in 2023 the edge has to be with the Wildcats to be able to produce a much more impressive result all around.
MY PICKS: Iowa Hawkeyes + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 13.5 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 8.5 Points @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals - 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 4.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Colorado Buffaloes + 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 27 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kansas Jayhawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)
Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)
Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)
Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)
Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)
Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)
Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
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