The wait for a season to begin certainly feels a lot longer than when we get into the season and somehow we have already moved into the second half of the regular season.
At this point the trade deadline is behind us and the Divisions are really beginning to take shape.
Teams that are perhaps thinking about the NFL Draft and earning a strong position for top Picks, while others are focusing on Seeding in the PlayOffs.
At this stage it is a time to put down my current top five teams and have a few thoughts about some of the other contenders that will be chasing Super Bowl rings and not merely trying to make the PlayOffs.
1) Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)- there are certainly some questions that still need to be answered by the Philadelphia Eagles, but they are the team to beat in the NFC after another tight victory over rivals Dallas in Week 9. If the Defensive unit can just raise their levels slightly, the Eagles will be very difficult to shake off with home field advantage through the post-season if they can secure the top Seed in the Conference.
2) Baltimore Ravens (7-2)- a strong Defensive unit is being backed up by an improving Offense and the Baltimore Ravens look very good. Some will feel this team is still flying under the radar, but they can come to the fore with some tough Divisional games coming up where they can impress.
3) Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)- another team that is still improving the Offensive side of the ball, but who have big wins over the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars even while Patrick Mahomes and company are not at full tilt.
4) Detroit Lions (6-2)- this is a good looking team, but you do have to feel that home field advantage is going to be very important for them if they are going to make a big January impact.
5) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)- they look the best by some distance in the AFC South, and this is a Jaguars team led by a Super Bowl winning Head Coach and a Quarter Back who has won plenty of big games at the College level. Trevor Lawrence will need the Defensive unit to step up if the Jaguars are going to make a Super Bowl run, but this is a team with more experience than some may believe.
Things can change very quickly in the NFL, but at the halfway mark those teams stand out.
As a Miami Dolphins fan, it is disappointing to not find room for them in the current top five, but the loss in Germany to the Kansas City Chiefs has maintained a worrying trend.
Crushing bad teams has been impressive, but the Dolphins are now 0-3 when facing the Chiefs, Eagles and Buffalo Bills this season and so a deep PlayOff run looks unlikely right now. At some point they have to find a way to get the Offensive rhythm going against the better teams, especially as the Defensive unit is likely to improve, but Miami have struggled to really find the plays to hurt the better teams and their struggles to put up more than 20 points in those games is a real concern.
Mentioning the Bills, they are also missing out after being outplayed on Sunday Night Football by the Cincinnati Bengals. The injuries have hurt the Defensive unit and Josh Allen has not looked in full health so there are questions to answer for Buffalo, who may be concerned that their recent window of trying to win a Super Bowl is closing.
Teams like Cincinnati and the San Francisco 49ers are vastly experienced in January and both are expected to enter the top five in the weeks ahead once they get healthier. The Bengals are looking better in that department, but the 49ers are banged up, which has been the main reason for the three losses in a row.
The Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns may yet have something to say before the season closes, but they have much to prove in January and potentially will have to win three road games to earn a Super Bowl place.
The last international game of the NFL season will be played this week in Germany and there is soon going to be an announcement whether Spain or Brazil are going to be hosting a game next season.
The last few Bye Weeks are coming up and that is usually a key sign that teams can begin to think about the post-season, while Seeding in both Conferences will be fought for right through to Week 18.
New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Pick: For the last time in 2023, the NFL will have an international series game taking place as the New England Patriots (2-7) 'host' the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) in Frankfurt. Both of these teams have had a difficult season, although more was expected from the Patriots rather than Colts.
Instead it is Indianapolis who will still harbour some PlayOff ambitions past the halfway mark of the season, even with a losing record. After beating the Carolina Panthers, the Colts are not facing the toughest of remaining schedules and they may just feel that a 5-3 ending to the season will be good enough to earn a Wild Card spot.
Things have gone much differently for the New England Patriots, who have the fewest wins in the AFC, and things have been so tough that there is even some suggestion that Head Coach Bill Belichick will lose his job at the end of the season. For a long time this was considered Belichick's job for as long as he wanted, but the era since Tom Brady left Foxboro has been incredibly poor and the Head Coach's reputation has been dented.
Relying on Mac Jones at Quarter Back has not helped and the Patriots have never found the right player to replace Tom Brady.
The entire Offensive unit have stagnated and it says plenty that the Patriots have only scored more than 20 points once this season and only managed 17 against the Washington Commanders in Week 9. An upcoming Bye Week might have come too late for New England to fix their issues and become competitive this season and so the rumours and reports are likely to increase in frequency between now and the end of the year.
A positive for New England is that the Offensive Line has been able to create holes to rip off some big gains on the ground in recent weeks as they have tried to do their part in helping out the Quarter Back. This is a game where the Patriots should be able to establish the run against this Indianapolis Defensive Line, but they will have to keep this one competitive to make sure they are not being forced to rely on the Mac Jones arm.
The Patriots Offensive Line has offered up protection to Mac Jones, but injuries in his Receiving unit means it has been difficult for the Quarter Back to make consistent throws. They are also going to be facing a Colts Secondary that will look to jump routes and make big plays of their own, so it is key for the Patriots to run the ball and not have Jones feeling the pressure is all on him.
Making big plays through the air would have been the ambition of the New England Secondary too, having given up plenty of yards in recent games, but that looks tough without JC Jackson who has been left at home for disciplinary reasons. Gardner Minshew has looked every bit a back up Quarter Back since coming into the line up for Anthony Richardson and perhaps pushing the boat out too far at times, but this is a Secondary that is seriously banged up and the veteran should be able to exploit that.
It helps that Minshew can simply hand the ball off to Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss who have been grinding teams down with their one-two punch out of the backfield. The Patriots Defensive Line are not an easy team to run the ball against, but Taylor and Moss are playing really well and the Colts Offensive Line have looked strong when they have been asked to block for the two Running Backs.
Establishing the run, and using Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss as safety blankets in the passing game, should see Gardner Minshew moving the chains with the Colts Offensive unit. Avoiding the big mistakes is always the question mark around Minshew and his level of performance, although even this veteran should be able to exploit a team that Sam Howell did in Week 9.
New England's Defensive problems have just increased the pressure on their Head Coach, while the team is 1-5 against the spread as the underdog this season. The spread is perhaps lower than it might have been because of the mistakes made by Gardner Minshew, but he can out-perform Mac Jones in Germany and lead the Colts to a victory and getting back to 0.500 before their own Bye Week.
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: This is a non-Conference game, but in Week 10 of the season, there are always some importance attached to any game played. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) may share the same record as the Tennessee Titans (3-5), but they are much closer to their Divisional leaders in the NFC South and there is still a genuine hope that they can challenge for a PlayOff spot in their Conference.
Doing the same will be much tougher for the Tennessee Titans in the basement of the AFC South and so a decision has been made at Quarter Back to turn the keys over to Will Levis in place of veteran Ryan Tannehill, who is going to be leaving Tennessee at the end of the season. The Titans have already seen enough from Levis to believe he could be a franchise player fro them at the most important position in US Sports and they will be looking to see how he can attack a Secondary that was embarrassed by a rookie last week.
Tampa Bay could not stop CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans and lost a game in which the home team did not even have a reliable kicker through the second half. That defeat was down to the Buccaneers Secondary and this feels like a game in which Will Levis can really write some strong headlines of his own.
It helps that the Quarter Back can lean on Derrick Henry and the big Tennessee Offensive Line and there have been some positive signs from them as a unit in recent games. Being able to establish the run is going to be challenging for the Titans considering the strength Tampa Bay have up front, but having a competent Quarter Back who has already impressed through two games may just open things up for Henry, rather than the other way around as has become the norm for Tennessee fans to see.
Will Levis has already built a decent rapport with DeAndre Hopkins and the issues Tampa Bay are having in the Secondary should mean a strong outing for the rookie. The Offensive Line have not been as strong when it comes to pass protection as run blocking, but Levis can move around and the threat of Derrick Henry gives the Titans every chance of earning the road upset.
However, the Titans will have to focus and not think about trying to derail AFC South rivals and leaders Jacksonville with a game against the Jaguars next up on deck. Tennessee will also have noted that CJ Stroud made the headlines in Week 9, but Baker Mayfield was plenty impressive for the Buccaneers in that game and had put his team in a position to win before the Defensive unit struggled to stop the Texans.
In saying that, this does not feel a great match up for Baker Mayfield with the Titans better at stopping the pass than defending against the run. Unfortunately for Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they have not really been very good at running the ball this season and the pressure has been on the Quarter Back and the passing game.
As we saw last week, Baker Mayfield has some good Receivers around him and Tampa Bay are certainly capable of making plays through the air. The 37 points scored is rare though and Tampa Bay had not surpassed 18 points in four of their previous five games, while the Titans Secondary is holding teams to under 200 passing yards on average across their last three games.
Kevin Byard has been traded to the Eagles, but even then the Titans have shown up in the passing game and this does give them an edge over the struggling Buccaneers.
Pressure can be generated up front to try and rattle Baker Mayfield, while the Buccaneers might struggle with the expectation of being set as the favourite. The public are lining up to oppose a rookie making another road start, but Will Levis played well enough in Pittsburgh against a tougher Defensive unit than the one the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bring onto the field, while Head Coach Mike Vrabel has had a few extra days to put together a game plan after Tennessee played on Thursday Night Football.
His record as an underdog as Head Coach of the Titans is impressive, and Tennessee may do enough to win this one outright and keep their outside hopes of a post-season run moving through Week 10.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: If the season was to end today, the entire AFC North would be involved in the PlayOffs, but there is a reason why all four teams from one Division have yet to make it into the post-season. A huge part of the schedule is made up of facing Divisional rivals and that should begin to separate the pretenders from the contenders in the AFC North over the next couple of weeks with some big games scheduled.
This week the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) are playing a non-Conference game while the Baltimore Ravens face the Cleveland Browns and so it is important for the Steelers to just keep putting the wins on the board. They have actually been struggling to win the yardage battle within games so the 5-3 record feels a little false, although Pittsburgh may feel that all that means is that more is to come from themselves.
They are facing the Green Bay Packers (3-5) who are having every bit as difficult a season as people predicted when moving on from Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back. For all of the years learning behind him, Jordan Love has not exactly staked his claim to being the next franchise Quarter Back for Green Bay with any authority and so it feels a big second half of the season is coming up for Love.
He has not been helped by the injury to Aaron Jones, while the Green Bay Receiving unit is perhaps not up to speed and was part of the reason Rodgers had been so frustrated in his last couple of years with the team.
Having a healthier Aaron Jones is going to be a big help for the entire Packers Offensive unit and the Offensive Line have been happy trying to get the run going. They will be tested by the Pittsburgh Defensive Line, which has been playing well in recent games, but Jones and the Packers have to believe and be confident in what they can do in the running game.
Easing the pressure on Jordan Love is key, and it will also be important to slow down the Pittsburgh pass rush that will be looking to harass Love whenever he steps back to throw. The Secondary have a couple of injuries to deal with, but the Steelers continue to use that pressure up front to force the passing aspect to stall and it is very difficult to believe Jordan Love is going to win this one without the Packers running the ball well and playing strong Defense.
It is the Defensive unit that has given the Green Bay Packers chances to win games this season and only the Detroit Lions can be pointed out as a team that have really given the Packers a tough time. Otherwise the Defensive unit have stepped up their level and tried to make up for the growing Offense and they will believe they can contain the threat posed by a team led by Kenny Pickett at Quarter Back.
While the Packers Offensive Line may feel they can establish the run, it is tougher to expect the same from the Pittsburgh Steelers who have not been moving the ball on the ground with any consistency of late. They are also facing a Packers Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run and forced teams to average just 3.4 yards per carry on average in their last three games.
Kenny Pickett will have a bit more time in the pocket, but he has not exactly been a confident thrower into a Secondary and this is another tough test for the Quarter Back. Diontae Johnson being back is a huge boost, but it has meant a frustrating time for George Pickens and the Packers may be strong enough in the Secondary to at least stall drives and try and win the field position battle.
That will be important and you do have to feel that the Packers scoring between 17 and 21 points would make them favourites to at least cover if they cannot win outright.
Mike Tomlin is an excellent Head Coach and he does get the very best out of his team so you have to give Pittsburgh plenty of respect. They have a decent record as a favourite since the start of the 2022 season too, while the Green Bay Packers are just 3-3 against the spread as an underdog.
Lines have been on the short side in Green Bay games when they have been considered the underdog this season, but getting at least a Field Goal amount of points in this one gives them a lot of opportunity to cover as the road underdog in Week 10 of the NFL season.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: The blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens will have stung the Detroit Lions (6-2), but they come out of their Bye Week with firm ambitions of winning the NFC North and earning a spot in the post-season. They are perhaps going to get a bigger challenge from the Minnesota Vikings than anyone could have expected after Kirk Cousins went down with a season ending injury, but the Lions will be focusing on their own abilities and look to have gotten healthier out of the Bye Week.
Five Divisional games remain for the Lions and they do have to face the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers after this non-Conference game, but Dan Campbell will be looking for some momentum to built up by his players.
They head out on the road to play the Los Angeles Chargers (4-4) who have pulled themselves back up to 0.500 for the season thanks to relatively comfortable wins over the Bears and New York Jets.
No one should be getting too carried away about those wins, while home advantage has not been much of one with road teams having plenty of fans travelling to Los Angeles to see their teams plays.
As talented as the Chargers are on the Offensive side of the ball with the players that can be rolled off the tongue, this is a team that is still struggling to find perfect rhythm on this side of the ball. Only an awful New York Jets Offensive performance on Monday Night Football meant the Chargers Offense avoided criticisms, but they are going to have to be a lot better in Week 10 against a genuine Super Bowl contender.
The Lions have to still prove that on the field, but they have a Defensive Line that can play the run effectively and shutting down Austin Ekeler on the ground is important. The Running Back will stick get plenty of touches through the air, but the key for Detroit will be to try and make Los Angeles a little one-dimensional and see if Justin Herbert's finger is healthy.
Doing so will mean the Lions Secondary will only be concerned about preventing Keenan Allen beat them having seen Justin Herbert restricted to just 136 passing yards in the win over the Jets. New York have a strong Defensive unit, but the Lions is plenty strong too and they have played the pass well and should be able to force Herbert to look at inexperienced Receivers with both Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer expected to miss this game.
Detroit do get pressure up front too and they will be coming out of the Bye Week hungry to show they are much better Defensively than what was seen when blown away by the Baltimore Ravens.
We saw that against an overmatched Las Vegas Raiders in Week 8, but shutting down the Los Angeles Chargers will be more impressive.
It is also an opportunity for Jared Goff and the Detroit Offensive unit to show what they are capable of doing in the second half of the season, especially with this game taking place indoors.
Earlier this season David Montgomery showed he had plenty left in the tank having been signed in the off-season and the former Chicago Bear and Jahmyr Gibbs give the Lions a real potent one-two in the Running Back room. While the Chargers have been looking stout at the Defensive Line in recent games, those numbers have been against really poor Offensive units in the last couple of outings and this is a significant challenge for them.
In saying that, the Chargers have improved across the Defensive Line as they have gotten healthier, but being able to move out of the run blocking set by this Detroit Offensive Line will not be easy. The Lions are unlikely to move too far away from the run unless down by a couple of scores and this is just as important to keep the Chargers guessing and now allow their pass rush to wreck the game.
The Chargers have picked up the pressure in recent games, but Jared Goff is well protected and he has plenty of talented players that can make a difference for him. If he is given any semblance of time or is in front of the chains, Jared Goff is going to be able to make plays against this Secondary and the expectation is that Detroit will enjoy playing in this Stadium where they can showcase their talents.
Los Angeles are on a short week and that has to be play into the hands of the Lions who are well Coached and have a 6-2 record against the spread when having more rest than their opponent.
You have to respect the Chargers who are 2-1 against the spread as the home underdog since the beginning of last season, but playing on the East Coast on Monday Night Football and facing a rested opponent on the West Coast the following Sunday is not ideal at all. They will make some plays, but the Detroit Defensive unit can make enough big plays and Jared Goff and the healthier looking Lions Offense can score the points to win and cover on the road.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Losing a tough game to their main Divisional rivals the Philadelphia Eagles may have sapped some of the energy from the Dallas Cowboys (5-3), but they need to bounce back immediately. There are not too many teams in the NFL that the Cowboys would have rather played than the injury hit New York Giants (2-7) who are having a serious down year after making the PlayOffs last season.
It was already a tough season, but losing Daniel Jones to injury is a massive blow to the New York Giants.
That is not to say that Jones is some unbelievable Quarter Back, and the feeling is that the Giants may still choose to move on from him at the end of the season, but Tyrod Taylor the backup is also out. It means Tommy DeVito, who was playing for Syracuse Orange and Illinois Fighting Illini in his College career, has had to step in during his rookie season with the Giants.
He was an Undrafted Free Agent and the reality is that Tommy DeVito has looked like one of those players in the most important position for the Offensive unit. It has felt like the Giants have very little confidence in him throwing the ball and now he has to play on the road at the Dallas Cowboys for a team struggling in all aspects of their Football.
The usual plan for those teams with a third string Quarter Back would be to establish the run and try and shorten the game- the Giants do have a strong Running Back in Saquon Barkley, but he is playing behind a banged up Offensive Line and they are trying to move the ball on the ground against a Dallas Defensive Line that has allowed 3.2 yards per carry of late.
It is a long shot to say the least and that will mean Tommy DeVito may have to help out with his legs, while the check down might be his only way to try and move the ball. He will have to make his reads quickly with the Dallas Cowboys expected to flood the backfield when he does step back to throw and it just feels like a horrible game for an inexperienced Quarter Back to have to deal with.
Players like Matt Barkley have been signed to add veteran experience, but the Giants cannot expect more from him than DeVito and all around it is a very difficult Offensive game for a team that is averaging under 270 Offensive yards per game this season.
Covering this kind of spread in the NFL is never going to be easy and Dak Prescott and the Dallas Offensive unit will have to play a clean game and not offer the Giants any momentum.
Questions remain about Prescott and his suitability to lead the Cowboys back to the Super Bowl having failed to win big games again this season, but this is a team that have crushed opponents at home. They will be expecting to do the same in Week 10 having beaten the Giants by 40 points on the road in Week 1, although the feeling is that the Cowboys will call off the dogs in the second half and win by around half that number.
You do have to credit the Giants Defensive unit for elevating their levels of late, but that is also partly down to the fact they have played the likes of the Washington Commanders, New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders (without Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarter Back). Of course fingers can be pointed out that the Giants 'restricted' Miami to 31 points and only allowed 14 against the Buffalo Bills, but those are non-Conference opponents who may not be as motivated as a NFC East rival playing behind a loss.
The Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 against the spread following a defeat since the start of the 2022 season and they will likely be able to do what they want in this one. In recent games Dallas have not run the ball nearly as well as they would have liked, but Tony Pollard can at least give the Offensive unit a different crease.
Ultimately it will be Dak Prescott's arm that will win the game and he can attack this Secondary with some confidence, especially if Pollard and the Offensive Line have just gotten something rolling on the ground.
Again, the Giants have to respected for their recent level of performance, but the Cowboys may end up with extra possessions in this game and in short fields and that may see New York just wilt.
Divisional games tend to be competitive and that has to be factored in, but Dallas did crush New York at home in 2021.
Offensively they have put up some strong numbers against the New York Giants and the suggestion is that 30 points will see the Cowboys in a position to cover a bloated line.
A backdoor cover will always be an opportunity when talking about big, double digit spreads, but the feeling is that Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants struggle to move the ball with any consistency and that means they will have issues scoring a couple of Touchdowns without significant help from Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
New York Jets - 1 Point @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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