The opening College Football Rankings were revealed between Week 9 and Week 10 and the majority of people would not have argued with the top four teams at this stage of the season.
The order of those teams was a bit more surprising, but the regular season and Championship Games are still to be played and over the next month things are going to clear up. The fact is that two Big Ten East teams are unlikely to be invited into the four team PlayOff and so the game between the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes is looking bigger and bigger in each passing week.
Both teams are big favourites to win in Week 10, although the Wolverines have yet to play the Penn State Nittany Lions, and the winner of this Division is likely going to be close to a three Touchdown favourite against whoever they face in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Defending Champions Georgia Bulldogs will have not been happy with their opening Ranking, but the feeling is that it could work in their favour. They have not looked the most motivated or focused in the regular season, but the Bulldogs are massively talented and remain unbeaten with a big chance to effectively close the SEC East this weekend.
They will be playing with something to prove and we have reached November when the big games comie thick and fast. There are big Conference games everywhere you look and the entire College Football landscape could look very different at the end of Week 10 and going into Week 11.
Worrying about Rankings at this stage would be a mistake for any team and so Head Coaches have tasked themselves with trying to make sure players are focused and ready to compete with every week an opportunity to go 1-0 and keep their goals right in sight.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: The first College Football Rankings of the season were released this week and it did come as something of a surprise to see the Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) as the Number 1 Ranked team. They do hold a strong victory over the 7-1 Penn State Nittany Lions and the win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish is looking stronger after good results produced by the Irish, but there is plenty of work to do between now and the end of the season for the Ohio State Buckeyes to have a shot at winning the National Championship.
The big game looming for the Buckeyes is the one against the Michigan Wolverines with the winner of that one likely to be playing for the Big Ten Championship and almost certainly going to be selected for the PlayOff.
That game against the Wolverines is scheduled for the end of the month so the Buckeyes have to keep their eye on the prize. Impressing the Committee before the Wolverines game could be a help as even a one loss Ohio State team may be considered stronger than some of the others around as long as that sole loss is to the Wolverines.
Ryan Day and his players will not contemplate losing to Michigan, let alone any other team, but they will have to respect Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-2) who are already Bowl eligible. The 3-2 Conference record means the Scarlet Knights are not in contention in arguably the toughest Division in College Football, but they will have nothing to lose in this home game and you cannot underestimate the motivation of wanting to play spoiler for their rivals.
Comfortable losses to the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan Wolverines suggests the Scarlet Knights are not able to compete with the best teams in the Big Ten. Even the narrow win over the Michigan State Spartans is not all that impressive considering the way the Spartans have seen their season unravel, although it should be noted that Rutgers are still unbeaten at home.
The big question for the Scarlet Knights is whether they are going to be able to score enough points to be competitive in this game. It was not the case when they faced the Michigan Wolverines and the Buckeyes have been very strong on the Defensive side of the ball all season.
Even recent victories have been put together thanks to some strong work Defensively, which has made up for some of the inconsistencies seen on the Offensive side of the ball.
However, those have been against the likes of Penn State and Wisconsin and both of those teams look to be stronger than the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. All credit has to be given to Head Coach Greg Schiano who has once again made this school far more competitive than they had of been between his two stints leading the team, but there is still a considerable talent gap to bridge to the very elite teams in the Conference and wider College Football landscape.
Being the Number 1 Ranked team could be a potential distraction for the Buckeyes, but the players will be reminded that they have achieved nothing yet. Instead Ohio State will be sent out to make a statement to their biggest rivals that they are ready to surge into the PlayOffs and they can produce a big win on the road.
Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: A long historical rivalry is coming to a close for the foreseeable future when the last Bedlam game is played in Week 10 unless these two teams meet again in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-2) are going to be hosting rivals Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) for the last time before the latter move to the SEC and these two teams are currently in the top three in the Conference standings having produced identical 4-1 records.
For 113 years, every season has seen the Cowboys and Sooners meet so it is a real shame that this could be the last time it happens for a while.
Motivation is not going to be a problem and the Oklahoma State Cowboys will feel they have momentum behind them too having won four in a row. That includes securing the tiebreaker against the Kansas State Wildcats, who are also at 4-1, and a win in Week 10 would put the Cowboys in a strong position to at least play for the Conference Championship, even if two losses are unlikely to earn them a PlayOff place.
Finishing the Oklahoma Sooners hopes of being to do that would be sweet for the Cowboys fan base and this looks to be a tough test for the Sooners who saw their unbeaten record ended by the Kansas Jayhawks in Week 9. The wins over Texas and Iowa State means the Sooners are still in a decent position of their own to earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, and they can really begin to push towards that with a win on the road.
Dillon Gabriel came up short at the end of the loss to the Jayhawks, but it was really the Oklahoma Defensive unit which let them down. That unit is going to be tested throughout this game by the Cowboys who look to have settled into a rhythm Offensively as they have piled up the yards in recent Conference wins.
Oklahoma State's Offensive Line have dominated in the trenches and they are expected to open up some huge holes for the running game, while they have also been very good at giving Alan Bowman plenty of time in the pocket. The Quarter Back has produced some decent numbers from the position, but it is Ollie Gordon II at Running Back who has been a star of the team.
In recent games, the Sooners have been struggling at all levels when it comes to their Defensive work and you have to believe that Bowman and Gordon II are going to be able to move the chains for the Cowboys.
That means it will be up to the Sooners Offense to try and keep up with a high-powered opponent and the reality is that Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners should be able to do much of what they like on the day. The Cowboys have not really been able to stop the run or the pass with any consistency, while the pass rush is unlikely to be one that rattles Gabriel at Quarter Back.
However, the Secondary have taken risks and they do find a way to turn the ball over and any extra possessions could be key to the outcome of this rivalry game. You still have to give the Sooners the edge, but the Cowboys are playing really well from an Offensive standpoint and can go toe to toe with the soon to be SEC Oklahoma Sooners.
The team who has the ball could have a drive to win the game, but either way, the feeling is that the Oklahoma State Cowboys can score enough points to keep this within the point spread set.
Florida State Seminoles @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: Being unconcerned about the College Football Ranking in early November is clearly the right approach, but the Florida State Seminoles (8-0) might know that their margin for error is much tighter than some of those in and around the top four.
They are the only unbeaten team in the ACC, but the Seminoles do not have a direct rival and one defeat would llkely see them slide out of the top four. And a one loss Florida State team may not look as appealing as others with a loss on their record, which means the Seminoles need to keep impressing.
Overlooking the Pittsburgh Panthers (2-6) would be a mistake, even if the team are 1-3 in the Conference, especially as they are the team that handed the Louisville Cardinals their sole loss for the season. The Panthers were embarrassingly blown out by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish last time out, but that was a defeat that quickly got out of hand with turnovers and Special Teams plays.
Heavy losses to the North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Tech Hokies are also on the record, but the Panthers are at home and they will certainly be good enough to take advantage if the Seminoles are looking ahead to games against the Miami Hurrcanes and Florida Gators later this month.
The Seminoles have impressed Offensively, but it is the Defensive side of the ball which makes them very dangerous. Being able to stop teams and force turnovers will impress fans, and the PlayOff Committee, and the Florida State Seminoles will feel they can match up well with Pittsburgh on this side of the ball.
Controlling the trenches is key and Florida State's Defensive Line should be able to clamp down on the run and force Pittsburgh to turn to the air against a Secondary that has made big play after big play.
Head Coach Pat Narduzzi did sound frustrated after the Pittsburgh performance against the Fighting Irish and the players may have something to prove, but they are unlikely to have much more success Defensively as they will have Offensively.
The Panthers Defensive Line can be tough to run against, but they will not have faced too many teams like the Seminoles which has the kind of balance that makes it very difficult to pick your poison. While Pittsburgh can make some plays against the run, they are going to be facing a Seminoles Offensive Line that has dominated the trenches and who have a Quarter Back in Jordan Travis who can make some plays with his legs.
Ultimately it is the Travis arm that has been impressing and there have been considerable holes in the Pittsburgh Secondary which are going to be attacked. Jordan Travis is well protected and, while the Panthers have been able to create turnovers through Interceptions, the Quarter Back has been careful with his ball placement and that has helped the Seminoles move the ball up and down the field with real consistency.
Florida State may have had a big turnover since their blowout home loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers in 2020, but it is a result that the players are likely to be aware of ahead of this Week 10 game. That should serve as a reminder that nothing can be taken for granted as to the outcome of this game, but also a motivation for the Florida State Seminoles to roll through the gears and win by a wide margin on the road, much like they did at Wake Forest last week.
Missouri Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs Pick: The Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) ARE going to make the College Football PlayOff as long as they win the SEC and do not lose more than one game doing so, but the defending Champions have been searching for motivation throughout this season. Being placed as the Number 2 Ranked team in College Football may just do that for them and the Bulldogs have a big chance to impress the Committee in Week 10.
They are strong home favourites as expected, but the Bulldogs are hosting the Missouri Tigers (7-1) who are overachieving as far as pre-season selections are concerned. Instead of fighting to avoid the basement of the SEC East, the Missouri Tigers are the Bulldogs last realistic challengers in the Division and a win on Saturday will actually give Missouri the inside track to the SEC Championship Game.
That would be a remarkable achievement and there should be no shortage of confidence for a team that is 3-1 in the SEC this season and who have won back to back games since losing to the LSU Tigers. It is a defeat that will have been noted by the Georgia Bulldogs, while it could also be argued that Missouri have been working their way through a decent schedule, one that looks much more difficult over the next few weeks.
Games against the Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators are to come, but the biggest test in the Conference is still the Georgia Bulldogs.
The Tigers will appreciate that this is probably the best Defensive unit they will have faced through the first ten weeks of the regular season and it is going to be difficult to move the chains. Missouri like to run the ball, but doing so against the Georgia Defensive Line has proven to be very hard work for all in recent games and even a dual-threat Quarter Back like Brady Cook may not loosen the Bulldogs up front.
Georgia have not really generated a lot of pressure up front, but the talent of the Secondary has meant it has remained a big ask to consistently throw against them. Brady Cook is enjoying a very good season as the Missouri Quarter Back, but he will have to avoid mistakes in this one to give his team any real chance of the upset.
They will also need the Defensive unit to play their part, but there have been some holes in the Missouri Defenses in recent games.
Over the course of the season the Tigers Defensive Line have been very good at controlling the line of scrimmage, but that has been less evident in recent games as Missouri have gotten into their SEC schedule. With a dominant Georgia Offensive Line in front of them, the Bulldogs may find it much more comfortable to run the ball right at the Missouri Tigers and just make things that much easier for Carson Beck at Quarter Back.
Injuries have removed some of the best Receiving weapons that Beck has, but others are stepping up. Carson Beck has also been given plenty of time in the pocket by the Offensive Line, while running the ball efficiently should just give the Missouri pass rush pause for thought and it is a game in which Georgia can really make a statement.
Last season the Tigers were only beaten by 4 points at home by the eventual National Champions, but that is a game that will be firmly on the mind of the Georgia Bulldogs. Personnel may have changed, but there will be enough voices reminding the players what could happen if they look too far ahead, and that should be key in making sure we get a full effort from the home team.
In the last six years, these two SEC East rivals have met three times in Athens and Georgia have crushed Missouri by 25, 27 and 33 point margins. This current Bulldogs team should find it very easy to get to the motivation levels needed to try and produce a big win here and they can cover the point spread mark set.
LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: There is a big game in the SEC East to be played earlier on the day, but arguably an even bigger one in the SEC West later in the evening. The Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) have kept up their push to not only return to the SEC Championship Game, but they are Number 8 in the opening College Football Rankings and will still believe winning out will be enough to earn them a spot in the PlayOffs later in the year.
Winning out will likely involve winning a road game at rivals Auburn and beating the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game, but that will count for nothing if the Crimson Tide fall to the LSU Tigers (6-2).
Two losses already means it is incredibly unlikely for the Tigers to be able to push their way into the PlayOff picture, but they are given plenty of respect with a Number 14 Ranking and LSU are 4-1 within the SEC. Winning in Tuscaloosa will put the Tigers in a position to represent the SEC West in the Championship Game instead, but they have suffered a loss to the Mississippi Rebels, who currently split the Tigers and Crimson Tide in the SEC West Divisional standings.
There is plenty of intrigue attached to this game because both teams will be pitting their best units against one another.
Where the LSU Tigers have impressed Offensively in their second season under Head Coach Brian Kelly, but they have struggled at times Defensively. On the other hand, Nick Saban's Alabama have continued to play at a high level Defensively, but have not had the kind of consistency expected when they have had the ball in their own hands.
It is all about trying to dominate the trenches as far as the LSU Tigers are concerned and being able to establish the run and keep the Crimson Tide guessing Defensively is very important. Jayden Daniels is someone who can help out of the Quarter Back position with designed runs, but you have to imagine he is not going to completely catch Alabama off-guard after producing almost 100 yards on the ground in their Overtime upset of the Crimson Tide last season.
In that win, Jayden Daniels had 182 passing yards too, but the feeling is that the Quarter Back has improved and may be able to find one or two holes in this Alabama Secondary. Being able to move away from the pressure that Alabama can generate up front will be important, but the feeling is that the LSU Tigers will be able to sustain some drives in this tough road environment, even if Nick Saban has plenty of tape to study of Daniels this time around.
Alabama have been putting plenty of wins together since being upset by the Texas Longhorns, but they have been grateful to their Defensive efforts. They may need a bit more from the Offense if they are going to avoid a second home loss this season, but there is a feeling that they can get what they need after the Bye Week.
Jalen Milroe is the Quarter Back and trying to reach the standards of some of the former players in the position who are now making waves in the NFL. It has been a tough season for Milroe in terms of consistency, but the Tigers have picked up some injuries on the Defensive Line and in the Secondary and that could give the Alabama Crimson Tide Offense an opportunity.
Overall the Offensive Line have simply not played well enough this season and that is a concern, but they are up against a LSU team that has not picked up a lot of pass rush pressure in recent games. Even then, the Crimson Tide have to hope the injuries have just loosened the Tigers up front having entered their own Bye Week looking like a team that can clamp down on the run.
It could mean it is on Jalen Milroe's shoulders to move the ball against the injury hit Secondary and the Quarter Back could have one of his stronger games. The passing game has shown some flashes, although Milroe will have to avoid the Interceptions that can be back-breaking for any team and been a slight issue for this Quarter Back this season.
Taking Sacks has been another issue for the Quarter Back and it could mean another upset is on for the LSU Tigers.
Joe Burrow out-duelled Tua Tagovailoa when the LSU Tigers won here in 2019 as a 5 point underdog and this line is much tighter than that. Many feel Alabama have been 'fortunate' to only have a single loss on the record and this LSU Tigers team looks to be playing with the kind of rhythm that can see them win outright.
Injuries in the Secondary have to be a concern, but Jayden Daniels may be able to help produce enough points for the road team and they can be backed with a start.
MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 18.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 15.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers + 3.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Air Force Falcons - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Iowa State Cyclones - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 3 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)
Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)
Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)
Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment