The penultimate week of the College Football regular season does not have the same jeopardy as some may think for the top teams, but Week 13 is when rivalry games can turn the PlayOff picture upside down.
That does not mean the teams leading the way in the Rankings can overlook opponents, but there are some massive favourites in Week 12, while some of those leading teams are in non-Conference action.
Out of the leading teams, the most vulnerable looks to be the Washington Huskies who are underdogs on the road at the Oregon State Beavers in a big Pac-12 game. Having the Huskies lose may actually hurt the Conference as they will no longer have the potential for an undefeated Champion, but winning in Oregon State is going to be incredibly tough and the lean is actually with the Beavers to come through.
Michigan Wolverines @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: A court argument was expected to be made on Friday, but Jim Harbaugh and the Big Ten have made a deal which means the Michigan Wolverines (10-0) Head Coach will be suspended for the remainder of the regular season. The benefit for Harbaugh is that the 'sign stealing' allegations will not be pursued by the Big Ten, although the NCAA may still have a role to play, but the Head Coach will miss the chance to oversee Michigan's 1000th win.
He has already spent some time away from the sidelines through suspension this season, but the Michigan Wolverines players have not allowed outside noise to distract preparation for each game played. They remain unbeaten with an absolutely massive game coming up against rivals the Ohio State Buckeyes, one that could determine which of those teams is playing in the College Football PlayOff.
With that in mind, there is a slight concern that the Michigan Wolverines will 'overlook' the Maryland Terrapins (6-4) who are just 3-4 in Big Ten play this season.The victory over Nebraska in Week 11 is arguably the best one that Maryland have produced this season, but no one associated with the team will downplay the tough game in front of them as they look to play spoiler.
Being in the Big Ten East means facing three of the top 15 schools in College Football- this is the final one of those games for the Terrapins who have suffered a 20 point loss on the road against the Ohio State Buckeyes and been blown away by 36 points at home against the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Many believe the Wolverines may be the best team in the entirety of College Football and so this is a monster challenge for the Maryland Terrapins, who will not be expecting a distracted Michigan team to come to town.
In the 2023 season, Michigan have been an absolute dominant Defensive unit and it is going to be a huge test for the Terrapins to move the ball with any consistency. The Michigan Defensive Line has been clamping down on the run and forcing teams to try and pick up First Downs from third and long situations, and ultimately the Secondary are playing at a really good level even without the kind of pass rush that the Wolverines would have hoped to generate.
They will be expected to get into the backfield a little easier in this one against a struggling Maryland Offensive Line which has not opened holes for the run or offered much protection for Tua's younger brother, Taulia Tagovailoa at Quarter Back.
He has played well and has some solid numbers behind him for the season, but Tagovailoa is throwing into a Secondary giving up less than 135 passing yards per game this season. That is an incredible number when you think of the leads Michigan have built up and forced teams to throw to stay with them, and Interceptions are likely to be at play in this one.
Covering this kind of number will depend on the Wolverines Offense, although the feeling is that scoring 34 points would likely do the job considering how well they have played on the other side of the ball.
The Wolverines will have noted that their rivals, the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions, were able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against a Terrapins Defense which is playing well.
Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards will share carries and look to pick up from where they left off against Penn State after another impressive Michigan win, while JJ McCarthy has been a solid Quarter Back. This has been a position that has perhaps held the Wolverines back in recent years, but McCarthy has well over 2000 passing yards to go along with 18 Touchdowns and 3 Interceptions and he can boost his Heisman Trophy bid.
Turnovers might be the best way for the Terrapins to make this competitive and they have a Secondary that will attack the ball, but the balance of the Michigan Offensive unit should keep this team rolling.
Style points are not going to make a real impact on Michigan- if they win out, they will be in the College Football PlayOff- but only the Nittany Lions have been able to escape a game against the Wolverines with a defeat by fewer than 24 points.
It feels like this one is more likely to end the way the Penn State Nittany Lions beat the Terrapins rather than the smaller margin Ohio State produced and the Wolverines can move into the Week 13 decider with the Buckeyes with plenty of confidence.
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: They are no longer the Number 1 Ranked team in College Football, but the feeling is that Head Coach Ryan Day will care as little as he has over the last two weeks. Ultimately Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) might be surprised that they have been knocked off top spot despite a crushing win over the Michigan State Spartans, but will also know the sole ambition is to finish in the top four and earn a PlayOff spot.
That is likely to be decided in Week 13 when the Buckeyes make the trip to the Michigan Wolverines with both of these teams unbeaten in the Big Ten East. The winner of that game will enter the Big Ten Championship Game as a significant favourite, while the losing team may still have some hope of earning a top four spot.
No one associated with either team is going to be considering 'what might be' if they lose and the sole focus is to come out hard in Week 13.
Overlooking this game and losing in Week 12 would be a big mistake, but the Buckeyes are expected to take care of business when they face the Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-5) who are 3-4 in Conference play.
Back to back losses to the Illinois Fighting Illini and Purdue Boilermakers have ended Minnesota's interest in reaching the Big Ten Championship Game, while they still need one more win to become eligible for Bowl Season. They were favoured to win both of those games and the Golden Gophers are likely going to need an upset in the final two weeks of the regular season if they are going to earn a sixth win.
The blowout loss to the Boilermakers will have hurt, but the Minnesota Golden Gophers have to be motivated in their role as spoiler.
PJ Fleck is a very strong Head Coach, but he has admitted it is difficult with the injuries the Golden Gophers have picked up. Each week it seemingly gets a little more difficult for the team and it looks like the Ohio State Offensive unit are going to be able to do much of what they like on this side of the ball.
Ohio State have started slowly at times, but this is a game in which they should be able to run the ball against a banged up Minnesota Defensive unit, while Marvin Harrison Jr continues to impress with his Receiving numbers. The Buckeyes will have balance Offensively, which makes it very difficult to stop them, and they will be able to pile up the numbers for as long as they want.
Of course a blowout could mean pulling key starters and getting them ready for the massive Week 13 game, but you do have to wonder how Minnesota are going to find much of their own Offensive output.
The Golden Gophers may want to shorten the game by running the ball, but they may not be able to throw effectively and especially not if they fall behind by a number of scores. Ohio State's Secondary have been operating at a high level and this is a Buckeyes team that have given up just 48 points across their last five games.
Covering this mark will depend on a strong Buckeyes Offensive day, but getting up to 35 points might be enough in this game with Minnesota struggling.
Winning with style won't matter much in the grand scheme of things, but Ohio State are rounding out their home schedule and will want to send off some important players with a strong performance. That should be motivation enough for the Buckeyes who can win big and then concentrate on the game up in Ann Arbor.
Oregon Ducks @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Both the Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks (9-1) are just outside the top four of the College Football Rankings with a couple of games left to play. There is still a real hope that the Pac-12 Champion will be able to earn a PlayOff spot, but the Ducks have less scope for error than the Huskies having already been beaten by Washington.
There is a big game coming up for Washington when they travel to the Oregon State Beavers in Week 12 and the Oregon Ducks will be playing their rivals next week at home.
However, in Week 12, the Ducks are big road favourites when travelling to the Arizona State Sun Devils (3-7) who are unlikely to become Bowl eligible even if they can somehow reach five wins. The team are 2-5 in the Pac-12 and Kenny Dillingham has had a tough first season as Head Coach, although he does have some insider information about the Oregon Ducks having previously been the Offensive Co-Ordinator.
Facing players and staff he knows well should not be an issue for Dillingham who is looking for his team to continue to grow having won two of their last three games. Sandwiched in between the wins over the Washington State Cougars and UCLA Bruins is an embarrassing blowout loss to the Utah Utes, but the Sun Devils need to be respected.
They have played the Washington Huskies very close this season and this is a big spread for any road team to cover.
Oregon should have a lot more Offensive success than Washington managed against the Sun Devils and Kenny Dillingham will know all about how good Bo Nix is at Quarter Back for the Ducks. The only reason Bo Nix is playing in Oregon is because of Dillingham who has a solid relationship with the Quarter Back, even if he will want to shut him down in Week 12.
Bo Nix has produced big numbers, but he can lean on the running game in this one considering the problems Arizona State's Defensive Line have had in stopping the run in recent games. If the Ducks are operating in third and short, or if they are exploiting play-action, this should be a game in which they find the balance Offensively and are able to put up some strong numbers against a Sun Devils team that may be looking ahead to upsetting rivals Arizona in Week 13.
A real problem for the Sun Devils is going to be scoring enough points to remain competitive in this game with injuries on this side of the ball making it difficult to believe they can keep up in a potential shoot out.
They are down potentially three Quarter Backs after Trenton Bourguet needed a walking boot last week with both Jaden Rashada and Drew Pyne also expected to miss out.
An inability to run the ball consistently could really increase the pressure on Arizona State, even with their Head Coach's knowledge of the Ducks. It is really difficult to imagine the Sun Devils having any consistent success on the Offensive side of the ball and the pressure on the Defense to contain Oregon may ultimately be too much to deal with on the day.
Covering this kind of spread is never easy, but Oregon did win by 29 points in their only road game played since losing at the Washington Huskies. The Ducks know that they need to keep impressing the PlayOff Committee having suffered one loss already this season, one they may be able to erase by winning the Pac-12 Championship, and Oregon can move clear for a wide win.
MY PICKS: Michigan Wolverines - 19.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 27.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 23.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals - 1 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 24.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 12.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks - 1.5 Points @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers - 10.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)
Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)
Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)
Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)
Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)
Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
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