It was always going to be a big ask of Daniil Medvedev to want to fight back when falling behind to Carlos Alcaraz and it made little sense with the Semi Final matches scheduled for Saturday.
Add to that the fact that a straight sets defeat would mean avoiding Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final and Daniil Medvedev will likely be pleased with his Group performance.
The top four players have all made it through to the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and you'd find long odds on someone other than one of these four winning the Australian Open, which begins in a couple of months time.
With that in mind, this feels like an important end to the World Tour Finals as all four will be looking to lay down a marker to their rivals and show that they are ready to win the next Grand Slam getting underway at Melbourne Park.
Both Semi Finals look like they could be filled with drama, as my Tennis Picks for Saturday suggest.
Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev over 23.5 games: The Semi Final line up was confirmed after Carlos Alcaraz beat Daniil Medvedev in the Friday Day Session, and it might not have been the worst news for the latter.
Losing that match means finishing second and that also means Daniil Medvedev faces Jannik Sinner rather than Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.
In saying that, this might be as tough as a match with Djokovic would have been with Daniil Medvedev facing a quality opponent as well as the Turin crowd. He has also lost the last two matches against Jannik Sinner with both of those played on the hard courts since the US Open, although both have been incredibly competitive affairs, much as what the expectation is for this Semi Final.
Those wins have ended Daniil Medvedev's run of six straight wins over Jannik Sinner, which includes two wins earlier this year. One of those was on an indoor hard court in Rotterdam, while Medvedev beat Jannik Sinner at the World Tour Finals in 2021, although again in three sets.
Both of these players have enjoyed the fast, indoor hard court conditions in Turin and Jannik Sinner has held 95% of his service games, while Daniil Medvedev has held 90% of his own. At the same time, both are breaking in 16% of return games and there is every chance that serve will dominate in this Semi Final.
Even a straight sets win for either player may see this total games line surpassed if Sinner and Medvedev continue to serve at the kind of level we have seen this week. Matches between the players have been highly competitive and the four played in 2023 have ended with a total of 30, 21, 26 and 32 games.
None of the Daniil Medvedev matches in this tournament have needed a decider, but two of the three matches won by Jannik Sinner have had a third set. The feeling is that both are playing well enough to win a set in this Semi Final and this should be the latest of an exciting, competitive match between the two players most likely to break the Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic dominance of Grand Slam titles in 2024.
Jannik Sinner may deserve the narrow edge as favourite, but Daniil Medvedev loves these kind of conditions and looking for the total to be surpassed is a better angle than trying to determine a winner.
Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic over 23.5 games: The top four ATP players in the World Rankings have made it through to the Semi Final of the World Tour Finals, although the World Number 1 and 2 will face off for a place in Sunday's Final.
Both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have had to overcome Group losses to make it through to the final four so may feel they are destined to win this title.
Novak Djokovic in particular has to be grateful that Jannik Sinner put in such an effort to beat Holger Rune in the final Group match. It was a match that meant little in terms of Qualification for the Italian, but a professional performance has given Djokovic life in the World Tour Finals.
The defending Champion has not had things all his own way since the US Open- he needed three sets to beat alternate Hubert Hurkacz and that means Novak Djokovic it has been the case in six of his last seven matches played. In general he has won those, although Djokovic was beaten in three sets by Jannik Sinner in the Group Stage.
The serve continues to be an underrated part of Novak Djokovic's tennis, but the conditions in Turin have really tested his return. He may be considered the best return player of all time, but Djokovic has only broken in 14% of return games played at the World Tour Finals and he is not expected to get a lot of change out of Carlos Alcaraz.
After being used to a rivalry with a player from Spain, Novak Djokovic will be looking to make a mark on Carlos Alcaraz and earn the mental edge to take into 2024. Early in the season, Alcaraz will not have any World Ranking points to defend and will want to head to Australia with a big win over his top rival on the Tour as he looks to close the gap at the top of the World Rankings.
Winning this tournament would also do that and Carlos Alcaraz has looked comfortable in the conditions after opening up the Group with a defeat.
Like Djokovic, the Spaniard is performing very well behind serve, but has 'only' broken in 16% of return games played.
And much like the other Semi Final, this looks like a match that could need a decider between two players who have been separated by very little in all of their matches played against one another this year.
Carlos Alcaraz wilted at the French Open as the stresses cramped up the body, but won in five sets in the Wimbledon Final before Novak Djokovic needed all three sets to win the Cincinnati Final. Prior to the cramps at Roland Garros, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic were involved in another tight scrap and the feeling is that this Semi Final is going to be extremely competitive too.
Their match in Cincinnati saw Carlos Alcaraz edge the returning numbers, but it was a tight, tight match and that is why so many want to see Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic competing against one another.
Both have to feel that the winner can go on and pick up the title on Sunday, which should only increase the tension in this Semi Final, and it is another match that may surpass a pretty high total games line for a best of three set match.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Over 23.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic Over 23.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 8-2, + 8.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 43.10% Yield)
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