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Saturday, 25 November 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade (November 25th)

There are some big nights left between now and the end of the calendar year, but this may be the best main event that we have left.

An argument could be made for Devin Haney vs Regis Prograis, while casual fans may be more intrigued by the deep card set up in Saudi Arabia a couple of days before Christmas, but this one between David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade is expected to set up the next Challenger for Canelo Alvarez and the Undisputed Super Middleweight Belts he holds.

This weekend we have a rematch between Katie Taylor and Chantelle Cameron in Ireland too, but most eyes will be on the last really big Showtime card from the United States.



David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade

There is a genuine feeling that if it wasn't for the gold at the end of the line that these two fighters may be operating in very different Divisions.

In recent years, both David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade have called out Canelo Alvarez time and time again without getting the pound for pound superstar n the ring.

Without that potential bout, you have to feel that Benavidez would have moved up to 175 pounds and Andrade would be operating in the Middleweight Division. Instea both insist on making the Super Middleweight limit and try and force that fight with Canelo Alvarez, one that could be career defining and, perhaps even more importantly for the two potential Challengers, highly rewarding financially.

After the deal Canelo Alvarez signed with PBC, it does sound like the winner of this one is going to be first in line to take on Alvarez next May.

And that means both David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade have to leave it all in the ring.

Inactivity has to be a real concern for Demetrius Andrade, while it cannot be ignored that he has had a single fight in the Super Middleweight Division. This will be just the second fight he has had in a little over two years and Andrade is in with someone who is much bigger than him.

David Benavidez has not been a lot more active, but his win over Caleb Plant earlier this year will certainly mean he has less ring rust to shift.

That is also a quality win and there is a feeling that Andrade has wasted his potential by taking too many 'easy' fights and simply sitting on the sidelines and hoping a big fight lands in his lap. He might be quick early, but Demetrius Andrade is going to find it very difficult to keep David Benavidez from grinding forward and breaking him down.

Credit has to be given to Caleb Plant for coming through some very rough moments late in the defeat to Benavidez.

However, he is naturally a bigger man than Andrade and the feeling is that the relentless pressure that David Benavidez brings into every fight will eventually break through the Andrade defences. The slickness will take Andrade so far, but the feeling has long been that David Benavidez is going to be too big and too strong for his undefeated opponent who has moved too far up the Divisions.

Demetrius Andrade can use his movement and pot shots to just keep David Benavidez honest for three or four Rounds, but by halfway you have to expect the bigger man to have taken control. At some point Demetrius Andrade may be forced to make a decision as to how much he is willing to risk, but Benavidez will not stop moving forward and a referee stoppage could be in play late on.


A decent undercard has been put together for this main event and Hector Luis Garcia can return to the Super Featherweight limit to defend his World Title successfully.

It should be a decent fight against Lamont Roach, while the Subriel Matias and Shohjahon Ergashev bout looks like being a potential show stealer.

Subriel Matias can showcase his power to defend his IBF Light-Welterweight Title.

And after some personal issues, Jermall Charlo is back in the ring, even if he is not being asked to defend his World Middleweight Title.

Assuming he can make a deal after missing weight, Charlo has the chance to impress against Jose Benavidez Jr who is fighting way outside his weight class.

Ring rust will mean Jermall Charlo needs to take some time, but Benavidez Jr is the naturally smaller fighter and has never fought at this limit before. That has to show up and Charlo can find some big punches late to force a Stoppage before chasing bigger fights in 2024.


Over in Dublin, the rematch between Katie Taylor and Chantelle Cameron will take place and the feeling is that we are likely to see repeat, rather than revenge.

The odds reflect that with Cameron favourite this time, but the selections from the card come from the undercard.

Paddy Donovan can continue his progress with another Stoppage win over Danny Ball- the British fighter has experience and a decent record, but big thins are expected from Donovan and Danny Ball was Stopped when stepping up to face Ekow Essuman.

It was not just a nightmare for Katie Taylor in Dublin in May, but Gary Cully was stunned in a Stoppage defeat.

He can bounce back on his return against Reece Mould and Cully can make the home fans much happier with a big Stoppage win of his own.

MY PICKS: David Benavidez to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Subriel Matias to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.57 Coral (2 Units)
Jermall Charlo to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paddy Donovan to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gary Cully to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 55-103, - 38.73 Units (292 Units Staked, - 13.26% Yield) 

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