Losing to Jannik Sinner has already made progress to the Semi Final of the World Tour Finals a little more awkward for Novak Djokovic and the considerable time spent on the court might be an issue on Thursday.
An injury suffered by Stefanos Tsitsipas could mean an alternate, Hubert Hurkacz, could come in and this fresh player could be very dangerous.
Jannik Sinner's win has likely moved him into a Semi Final as he has made it two from two in the Group, and the home fans are expected to be important to him over the next few days. He has one more big Group match to be played against Holger Rune, with the latter also keen to progress, and the two Thursday matches will be of huge interest for the fans.
Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The two players who lost their opening Group matches have a chance to make amends and give themselves an opportunity to reach the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals. Both will have been frustrated with their opening performances, and eventual defeats, but Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev can still have a big impact in Turin.
Last year Andrey Rublev did reach the Semi Final at this event, while Carlos Alcaraz had to miss out, and both have a couple of injuries to deal with at the back end of a long year on the Tour. Neither will want those injuries to affect their levels early in the 2024 season with the Australian Open beginning in two months time and so there is some uncertainty as to how much they will apply themselves after the losses suffered on Monday.
However, Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev have been two of the hardest working players out there as they look to maximise all of the ability they have and the expectation is that there will be a big effort to get back on track in the Group before the deciding matches are played on Friday.
Carlos Alcaraz will feel he let his match with Alexander Zverev slip away having had chances to break serve at the end of the first set and early in the second set, when he would have taken complete control of the match.
Instead he was downed in three sets, although the time spent on the court should benefit the Spaniard in his debut appearance at the World Tour Finals.
He also played in the Day Session on Monday so there is ample recovery time after spending two and a half hours on the court. A bigger concern may be the fact that Carlos Alcaraz has now lost three of his last four matches on the hard courts when facing a top 10 Ranked opponent, even if he has been competitive in those recent defeats.
That may be a mental obstacle to overcome, but the same cane be said for Andrey Rublev who wilted in his defeat to compatriot and friend Daniil Medvedev and who now has a 2-6 record against top 10 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2023. For a long time, Andrey Rublev has struggled to deal with the emotions and mental drain that playing the top players will produce on someone and we saw more of that on Monday as he could not hide his frustrations deep into the second set of a straight sets loss.
Andrey Rublev is consistent, as mentioned in the Monday selection, but he has also consistently come up short against the top players on the Tour.
The only concern in backing Carlos Alcaraz is whether he is still dealing with an injury that is keeping his best tennis away from the court, but he did play well enough against Alexander Zverev and this might be a more comfortable match up as these two face off for the first time on the Tour.
We should see more rallies and that is where Alcaraz can eventually make his quality come through and he can bounce back in this one.
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: The eventual scoreboard made it feel like Daniil Medvedev had a much easier time against Andrey Rublev than it was, especially the tight first set that saw both players have to save multiple Break Points. By the end of the match Daniil Medvedev had control though and he is looking to virtually seal a spot in the Semi Final.
A straight sets win over Alexander Zverev will do that, no matter what has happened in the other match in the Group, and Daniil Medvedev has to be very confident in facing this opponent.
Alexander Zverev came from a set down to beat Carlos Alcaraz on Monday and he is another of the former Champions of this event that is taking part in the tournament. Four previous ATP World Tour Finals matches between these players have been split 2-2 with the most important won by Zverev in becoming Champion after a straight sets win over Daniil Medvedev in 2021.
However, more often than not, Daniil Medvedev has not been too concerned when it comes to facing Alexander Zverev on the hard courts and not after finally beating him for the first time on this surface in October 2019.
Prior to that, Alexander Zverev had won all four hard court matches between these players, but the win in Shanghai in 2019 has sparked a run in which Daniil Medvedev has won eight of their eleven meetings on the surface. He has won two of the three hard court matches that have taken place in 2023 and it is Daniil Medvedev who has played the bigger points better of the two players.
Both are reliant on strong serving, although a narrow edge has been with Daniil Medvedev who has won 69% of service points played and held 90% of service games played against Alexander Zverev since his first win on the hard courts over four years ago. At the same time, Zverev has marks of 64% and 81% respectively and those fine margins have led to the majority of wins landing in favour of the Russian.
Even in their three hard court matches played in 2023, Daniil Medvedev has held 88% of the service games played compared with Alexander Zverev's mark of 84%.
Having spent a bit less physical and emotional effort in his win on Monday, Daniil Medvedev can break the tie at the World Tour Finals event and beat Alexander Zverev. The latter ended his win over Carlos Alcaraz with a slight issue with his ankle and it may just mean he is not as focused to get drawn into a long, drawn out slog with Daniil Medvedev, which ultimately may mean forcing the attack and leading to Zverev mistakes.
An aggressive approach is not a bad way to try and get after Daniil Medvedev, but it is going to be a little alien to Alexander Zverev if he is to get up to the net more often than usual. And with the head to head as it stands, you have to favour Medvedev to just be a little stronger at the key moments of this one as he looks to return to the Semi Final of the World Tour Finals.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 4-1, + 4.38 Units (10 Units Staked, + 43.80% Yield)
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