The opening Group matches of the ATP World Tour Finals were won by Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner on Sunday and that means the two highest Ranked players in that section will meet on Tuesday, likely for a place in the Semi Final.
The two losing players, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune, are both under immediate pressure, but Group play is different for tennis players who are used to moving on after losing at an event.
In this one, they do have an opportunity to make amends for a defeat, but those matches will have to wait.
On Monday the focus is on the opening matches in the other Group at the World Tour Finals and it looks like a day when the two favourites can come through. Nothing comes easy against the kind of quality littered throughout the tournament, and it does help that the underdog players can play with some freedom knowing that a loss is not a fatal one for their chances of reaching the Semi Final.
Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: The incredible rise of Carlos Alcaraz on the ATP Tour is underlined by the fact he was winning the NextGen Finals in 2021 and ending last season as the World Number 1. He would have entered the ATP World Tour Finals with that Seed next to his name, but injury meant the Spanish superstar missed the Finals in Turin and later could not travel to Melbourne for the Australian Open.
He was not able to defend his US Open title in September when surprisingly beaten in the Semi Final and Carlos Alcaraz has not exactly been in top form since then. Only a Semi Final run in Beijing is of note and Alcaraz will be tested in this Group alongside a couple of former Champions as he looks for the kind of performance that may yet end up with another end of season World Number 1 Ranking.
Overall you cannot doubt the consistency that Carlos Alcaraz has produced on the hard courts in the last two seasons, although the defeats to Grigor Dimitrov and Roman Safiulon in the build up to the tournament in Turin are a slight concern. Picking up momentum in a tournament featuring the top eight players in the World Rankings means there is little room to build into the event, but Carlos Alcaraz may be happy enough with the opening Group match.
It may sound disrespectful to Alexander Zverev, who has had a strong second half of the season as he looks to finally have the confidence to overcome the injury suffered at the French Open in June 2022.
Alexander Zverev has won a title on the hard courts since the end of the US Open, but the form has been a little more mixed since that success in Chengdu. Early defeats at the Shanghai Masters and Tokyo have been followed by relatively poor runs in Vienna and Paris, but Zverev has won the World Tour Finals in 2018 and 2021 and the indoor conditions are ones he does enjoy.
The better performances have been on the clay courts, but Alexander Zverev is a solid hard court player and he has a serve that could be very important in the conditions expected in Turin. His hard court numbers have been improved in the second half of the year, which is expected considering the overall improvement, but Alexander Zverev is going to perform very well to beat someone as good as Carlos Alcaraz.
He knows that having been dismissed pretty comfortably when the two met at the US Open, and both matches between Alcaraz and Zverev have been won by the Spaniard this season. Carlos Alcaraz is getting more and more out of his serve, but it is on the return that he has the edge over Alexander Zverev and that has very much been the case in the two matches between these players in 2023.
We could see the returning strength of Carlos Alcaraz make the difference for him in this Group match and he may do enough to cover this handicap line set.
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Last year in Turin, Andrey Rublev beat Daniil Medvedev, his good friend, for a second time on the Tour, but it has been a return to the previous form in 2023. Both matches between these compatriots have ended in relatively strong wins for Daniil Medvedev and he will be looking to get this Group Stage off to a positive start with a bit of revenge for the defeat in the same Round twelve months ago.
Daniil Medvedev understands that there will still feel like a gap between himself as World Number 3 and the top two in the Rankings, even though he beat Carlos Alcaraz in New York City at the US Open. He has a chance to frank that win later in the Group, but the main ambition for the Russian will be to make it into the Knock Out Rounds and try and reach the Final at an event he has won before.
He has reached the Final of a couple of events since the US Open, and Daniil Medvedev has long considered himself as one of the very best hard court players on the Tour.
The unconventional serve is a potent weapon on the surface, but Daniil Medvedev is really productive when it comes to the return and that does put pressure on opponent's to make sure they are hitting their mark.
It will be the pressure that Andrey Rublev feels in this opening Group match and his service struggles were costly in the loss to his compatriot at the US Open.
The main reason Andrey Rublev is back at the World Tour Finals is the consistency he keeps showing- he generally beats those he is expected to beat and Rublev has reached the Final in Shanghai, the Semi Final in Vienna and the Semi Final in Paris in his last three tournaments.
It is impressive, but Andrey Rublev will only be able to take the next step in his career if he can work through the mental demons that have seen him struggle to compete against the best players. He did reach the ATP World Tour Finals Knock Out Rounds twelve months ago, but Rublev is just 2-5 in hard court matches against top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2023.
In those matches, Andrey Rublev has not quite had the confidence in the serve and that means his service hold percentage has dropped to 73% compared with his overall 84% mark. At the same time, the break percentage drops to 16% from 23% and this has been an issue in the two defeats to Daniil Medvedev this season.
Actually it has been an issue for Andrey Rublev in his nine matches against Daniil Medvedev, all on the hard courts, and the difference in the hold percentage is significant.
The memory from last season should help Andrey Rublev, but Daniil Medvedev can earn a bit of revenge with a win and cover in an important Group opener.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 2-0, + 3.04 Units (4 Units Staked, + 76% Yield)
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