NFL Week 9 Picks 2023 (November 2-6)

This has been a pretty busy week so this thread will only focus on the NFL Picks being made.

Hopefully it will be one where the Picks bounce back from the narrow deficit produced in Week 8.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Pick: Both of these teams have been used to playing international games in the NFL regular season, but it will be the first time either is playing in Germany.

The London games may not have been the most appealing on paper, but the German fans cannot have any complaints about seeing the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) and Miami Dolphins (6-2) face off with their high-powered Offensive units. They are two of four teams in the AFC who have won six games this season and who will be targeting the Number 1 Seed in the Conference and holding home court advantage through the post-season until the Super Bowl.

Games against one another could be key to that outcome with those potential tie-breaking wins to separate teams in the final standings.

That is still a long way away though and the Chiefs and Dolphins meet in a big game after differing Week 8 performances. The Miami Dolphins bounced back from a loss to beat the New England Patriots at home, while the Kansas City Chiefs were finally beaten by the Denver Broncos.

There are factors at play though in that defeat, factors which should not be having the same kind of impact in this Week 9 game. Patrick Mahomes was playing in Denver through an illness, but he is much better now and will be travelling with the Kansas City Chiefs expecting to have a much stronger performance all around.

Vic Fangio is doing a good job with the Dolphins Defensive unit, but it is still a work in progress even with a returning Jalen Ramsey to provide a boost for the Secondary. With a Bye Week coming up, the Dolphins will be hoping some key players return to make Fangio's life that much more comfortable as the Defensive Co-Ordinator, while it should be said that Miami have not played as well on this side of the ball when they have faced the stronger teams on the schedule.

The Chiefs certainly are one of those better teams and Patrick Mahomes is likely to be a lot better than what we saw from him in Denver.

Some are questioning whether the Kansas City Chiefs should have added a couple of bodies to the Receiving corps to help their Quarter Back, but Mahomes is a Quarter Back that will get the best out of the Receivers he does have. Travis Kelce is clearly the top option through the air, but the Chiefs have others stepping up and developing and they will believe they can move the ball with some consistency against this Dolphins team.

It is the Offense that has really been making the headlines for the Dolphins and they will need them to be at their best if they are going to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately the team have yet to get their best foot forward Offensively when facing the likes of the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles and it could be argued that the Kansas City Chiefs have the best Defensive unit of the three.

Over the last couple of weeks, Miami's Offensive Line have really been banged up and that has slowed down the rushing attack, one that had been impressing earlier in the season. Losing De'Von Achane has been a big blow considering the Home Run threat he brings with every touch, and Raheem Mostert is not fully healthy right now either.

Along with the Offensive Line issues it feels like Miami may not be able to take advantage of some of the problems that Kansas City have had in stopping the run. Being behind the chains would be very tough for Tua Tagovailoa, even if he has been playing at a high level this season, while he is not going to be given a lot of time for routes to be run down the field thanks to the strong Chiefs pass rush.

Tyreek Hill is facing his old team for the first time and is likely going to be pumped up and able to make some big plays, but consistent success for Miami may be tough to come by as they perhaps struggle against yet another of the better teams in the NFL.

Kansas City are arriving in Germany much later in the week than the Miami Dolphins, but the feeling is that the Chiefs bounce back from a poor loss last week. They are still firmly in control of the AFC West so it is not a loss that will linger and Patrick Mahomes is likely going to put in a much stronger performance all around which will lead to a win for the Chiefs.

Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Two teams that will have Super Bowl ambitions meet in a non-Conference game in Week 9 of the NFL season.

Both the Seattle Seahawks (5-2) and Baltimore Ravens (6-2) are leading their respective Divisions in the NFC West and AFC North and both won in Week 8 to keep some positive momentum behind them. Those wins did not come in completely convincing fashion, but it is important to build confidence at this time of the season and look to peak in January and February.

Focus could be the biggest opponent for the Ravens in Week 9 as they will follow this game with back to back Divisional games against the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. Those are hugely important games for the Ravens in looking to achieve their overall goals, while winning a non-Conference game is always fun, but perhaps not so important in the grand scheme.

The fact is that the Ravens are also playing a Seattle Defensive unit that is much improved from last season and arguably more responsible for their winning record than Geno Smith and the Offense. Adding Leonard Williams to the mix in a trade from the New York Giants looks to be a big move for the Seahawks and he is expected to play on Sunday.

Clogging up the Defensive Line, Leonard Williams is expected to be an immediate contributor for a Seattle team that have played the run well without him. Now they could be even stronger up front with an immediate test of that theory against the Baltimore Ravens, a team that have a dual-threat Quarter Back and whose DNA is to run the ball first and foremost.

Closing down Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards completely is a next to impossible task, but the Seahawks Defensive Line have to believe they can limit the damage that is done on the ground. They did allow the Browns to put up 155 yards on the ground last week, but the Seahawks did not allow any of the Running Backs to really get loose and with the addition of Williams, it could be even tougher to churn out big gains.

Reducing the running game will certainly give the Seahawks the edge on this side of the ball with the Secondary continuing to play well. Lamar Jackson and his Receivers are finding a rhythm, but you would expect the Seattle Defensive Backs to have an edge, while Seattle also generate enough of a pass rush to rattle Jackson and force him out of the pocket.

Containing the Quarter Back when he gets loose will be important, and this Seattle Defensive unit looks like one that can at least restrict the Ravens better than the Detroit Lions did in the last game in this Stadium and that offers the visitors a chance of the upset.

Playing on the road in the early Eastern Time Zone is not ideal for a West Coast team like the Seattle Seahawks, but they have won in New York against the Giants and also on the road against Detroit. A narrow defeat in Cincinnati has also been played out, although there is enough to suggest the Seahawks can remain competitive as long as Geno Smith and the Offensive unit avoid some of the mistakes that almost cost them against the Browns last week.

Any mistakes will be difficult to overcome and this Baltimore Defensive unit have been operating at a high level.

However, in recent games, it has been possible to run the ball against the Ravens Defensive Line and Seattle are capable of establishing the run. It will be important to ease the pressure on Smith and will also mean keeping control of the clock and making sure the Seattle Defense are getting plenty of rest between chasing after Lamar Jackson.

It will be tough to win the game if relying on Geno Smith having to throw into this dangerous Baltimore Secondary- while he is backed up by good looking Receivers, the Seahawks Offensive Line could struggle to keep the Ravens pass rush from out of the backfield and that pressure could see Smith rushed into throwing when he should not be.

Interceptions have been an issue for Geno Smith and Baltimore love turning the ball over, but a clean game will give Seattle a chance to win and that has to be the sole focus for the visiting team.

With a potentially distracted Baltimore team, Seattle can keep this one competitive with a strong day in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They are getting enough points, although it does mean asking Geno Smith to not push the boat out and ultimately make mistakes that could end up costing the Seahawks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Pick: After losses in Week 8, both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) and Houston Texans (3-4) are a game under 0.500. The difference is that the Buccaneers are playing in a weak looking NFC South Division and remain in touch with the leaders, while the Houston Texans are trailing the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, a team that has won six of eight games played.

This may be a non-Conference game, but both teams should be motivated to move out of a losing record position, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a little more time to prepare having been in Thursday Night Football action in Week 8. The Buccaneers have lost three in a row though and so confidence is an issue, while a Houston team that has been overachieving having dropped two of three themselves.

A rookie Quarter Back has been playing very well, but the Texans were beaten by the Carolina Panthers, and their own rookie Quarter Back, which will have been a disappointment.

CJ Stroud will try and bounce back against a tough Buccaneers Defensive unit that have kept the team competitive, even through a losing run. They have given the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a chance to win games, and there is a feeling that they can at least give the rookie leading the Houston Offense something to think about.

Running the ball is not going to feel like much of a positive option for the Texans, but CJ Stroud is going to be throwing into a young Secondary which has definitely bent, if not broken. His recent throwing outings have not been the most productive and there is going to be a concern that the rookie has hit his wall a little earlier in the season, although Stroud himself is looking to show that there is still more to come from him.

Importantly, CJ Stroud has been able to look after the ball when he has taken to the air, while the Houston Offensive Line should be able to offer him enough time to attack a Secondary allowing almost 300 passing yards per game in their three game losing run.

It has increased the pressure on Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Offensive unit and we are some way down the line from when it looked like the move from Tom Brady to Mayfield would be a comfortable one for the Buccaneers. Now there has been a real problem getting the run game going and it has meant Baker Mayfield is being forced to throw from third and long spots.

Much like his opposite number, Baker Mayfield is going to be throwing into a struggling Secondary and he does have some veteran experience at the Receiver positions who can make plays. The difference for the two Quarter Backs in this game is that CJ Stroud could be afforded a bit more time when trying to pick up longer Third Downs and Baker Mayfield may have to make plays under pressure behind this Tampa Bay Offensive Line.

That can make all the difference and Mayfield may end up making a mistake or two that proves to be costly for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Texans have not been able to create the turnovers in recent games, but this may prove to be an opportunity for them and they can bounce back from the poor loss to the Carolina Panthers.

Nothing has come easy for either team, but the Houston Texans may just have the pass rush pressure to rattle Baker Mayfield a bit more than the other way around, and that can lead to a home win for the AFC team.

Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers Pick: They would have been hoping Anthony Richardson, a top four Draft choice, would be able to lead the Indianapolis Colts (3-5) forward in what is not the most testing of Divisions. However, the concern that Richardson's style may leave him vulnerable to injury in the NFL has unfortunately come true for the Colts and he is out for the season.

Having a veteran back up like Gardner Minshew should have been a positive, but mistakes have been made and you can see why the Quarter Back has struggled to hold down a permanent starter role. Three losses in a row are one thing, but the Colts can point to those mistakes as being fatal having lost by a single point to the Cleveland Browns in between disappointing defeats to Jacksonville and New Orleans.

This week the Colts are trying to bounce back against the Carolina Panthers (1-6) who won for the first time in the Bryce Young era when seeing off fellow rookie CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans. A Bye Week has helped the Panthers clear up some of the injuries that have contributed to six straight defeats to open the season, but backing that victory up is not going to be easy.

A short week is coming up for the Carolina Panthers who are scheduled to play on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and that is a potential distraction. They are also going to be facing a tough Indianapolis Colts Defensive unit that have been able to control the line of scrimmage and who have the ability to at least contain the threat on the ground.

It is important to do that in this one so the Colts can force Bryce Young to beat them through the air, although there are one or two holes in the Secondary which can be exposed. The key for Indianapolis will be to try and get their pass rush going against this Carolina Offensive Line and see if they can rush Young into a mistake or two, especially with their Secondary being able to make plays Intercepting passes in recent games.

Gardner Minshew is difficult to trust, but it may pay for the Quarter Back that he can likely lean on Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor who should be able to establish the run.

Being in front of the chains is only good news for the veteran and it is also good news for the Offensive Line, which has not protected Minshew as well as they would have liked. However, they are facing a Panthers pass rush which has not been able to find the Quarter Back consistently, and being in front of the chains should mean Gardner Minshew is able to get the ball out of his hands quickly.

Backing Indianapolis to win on the road is not a great position to be in- it is worse backing them as the road favourite!

However, the Colts have won two of the three wins on the board outside of their own Stadium and the Panthers might not be as focused having finally won a game and now having to play on Thursday Night Football. This feels much more important for the Indianapolis Colts if they have any remaining ambitions to challenge the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Division and they can be backed to win.

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Revenge will have been on the mind of the Buffalo Bills (5-3) as soon as they were beaten in the 2022 NFL PlayOffs and Week 10 would have long been circled. Having a few extra days to prepare can only be a good thing for the Buffalo Bills after beating Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football and they will be ready to perform in a primetime slot.

Before last week, the Buffalo Bills might have been plenty confident in earning a win over the Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) who have made a slow start to the season and sit in the basement of the AFC North.

However, Joe Burrow and the team looked so much healthier in their strong win on the road over the San Francisco 49ers and they won't be lacking any focus after already dropping three games. Next up is the Houston Texans, so the Cincinnati Bengals won't be looking past Buffalo, while the Bengals also know putting a marker down against potential PlayOff rivals is plenty important.

The Bengals will believe they can keep the Offensive rhythm going after a strong performance in San Francisco and that is mainly down to the injuries that the Bills have suffered on this side of the ball. Rasul Douglas will help the Secondary having arrived in a trade from the Green Bay Packers, but he will take some time to learn what is expected from him and Joe Burrow and the Bengals should have success.

Joe Mixon may not make the same kind of runs that he did a few years ago, but he will pound the rock and open up the passing game for Burrow.

This will also ensure the Offensive Line is giving Joe Burrow time to find his big-play Receivers and Cincinnati will be expecting to move the ball and score plenty of points.

The Buffalo Bills will think the same with Josh Allen and the strong Offensive unit likely to enjoy plenty of success both on the ground and through the air. The Bills have not leaned on James Cook as much as some though they might this season, but he has an opportunity to have a strong game against this Cincinnati Defensive Line, while the Secondary have allowed big plays to be made against them.

Closing Josh Allen will be tough if he is completely healthy, but there is a feeling that Allen is trying to battle through to the Bye Week where he will be able to rest up.

Josh Allen is well protected by the Offensive Line and so should find time to make plays down the field, and this has the makings of a very good Sunday Night Football game.

That PlayOff loss in January will not be far from the mind, but the Cincinnati Bengals looked strong last week and they may have the edge on the Defensive side of the ball in this one. Both teams are expected to move the ball up and down the field, but a bit more balance can be found by the Bengals between the run and the pass and that may end up being the main factor in the outcome of the Week 10 clash.

Sharp money looks to be behind the home team and that looks the path to follow in a big AFC encounter.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

NFL Week 9 Picks 2017 (November 2-6)

The reason I dislike the middle of the season in the NFL is for selfish reasons.

Basically it messes up my Fantasy teams for a few weeks as it means searching for replacements to get you through a difficult period while also trying to maintain a push towards the Play Off.

That's a silly reason to dislike the bye weeks, but it is what it is.


This week we saw the trade deadline in the NFL and it was arguably the most active we have seen in this League for many a year. The headline was Jimmy Garoppolo being traded to the San Francisco 49ers from the New England Patriots which was a surprise when it was announced it was 'only' for a Second Round Pick.

You would have thought the Cleveland Browns would have offered more than that, but the rumour is that Bill Belichick had no desire to help the team who once fired him and so Garoppolo heads to the West Coast where he will be given time before he takes over as the San Francisco Quarter Back.

There were other surprises with Jay Ajayi leaving the Miami Dolphins for the Philadelphia Eagles and Kelvin Benjamin going from the Carolina Panthers to the Buffalo Bills. It is clear the Eagles and Bills really believe in their chances of a solid Play Off run with the Eagles in particular looking like a team that could win the Super Bowl at the end of this season.


Philadelphia will also received a bonus of seeing their biggest rivals in the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys, lose Ezekiel Elliot. This time it looks like the six game suspension for Elliot is going to stand although it has probably been on and off at least six times in the time I have spent writing out this post.


My current top five did not has as many changes between Week 8 and Week 9 as it did the week prior and below are my top five teams:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (7-1): I said I could have moved the Eagles up a spot last week and this week I am simply because of the second placed team.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2): The Pittsburgh Steelers found a way to win in Week 8, but I actually think they were very fortunate to win considering the shocking play-calling Detroit put together in the Red Zone.

3) Minnesota Vikings (5-2): A dominant win in London keeps the Vikings at the head of the queue in the NFC North.

4) New England Patriots (6-2): There are questions for the New England Patriots to answer in the bye week... Namely how can they turn Field Goals into Touchdowns.

5) New Orleans Saints (5-2): Five straight wins and the chance to move to 2-0 in the Division by the end of Week 9 keeps the Saints above the likes of the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams.


The NFL Picks have not really had a lot of luck which was highlighted by Detroit's failure to cover in a game they should have won. I would appreciate a little more fortune going in Week 9 and the chance to get this season back on track. The Week 9 Picks follow.


Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets Pick: The AFC East has a couple of surprising teams in the 2017 season and the two of them will play in this Thursday Night Football game. Out of the two teams it is the Buffalo Bills who are more likely to be challenging for a Play Off place, but the New York Jets have to be respected having won three games more than most would have thought they would throughout the 2017 season.

The Jets have hit a rough patch though and they will have their problems Offensively in this one against the Buffalo Bills. While they have played better than expected, the Jets haven't faced a Defense like the one they will be seeing on Thursday and maybe not since they first met in the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 when New York were held to just 12 points.

Buffalo haven't really given much away at all despite facing some strong Offensive units and the Bills should feel confident in this one. Josh McCown is going to have to do the majority of the work if the Jets are going to earn the upset and that is mainly because he won't have much of a run support in this one.

Keeping the Jets in third and long will make it very difficult for McCown to make the plays down the field against what has been a solid pass Defense. Watch out for the Bills to get the pass rush going again in those situations and get the better of the Jets Offensive Line while McCown has to be wary of the Interceptions that the Bills have been able to manage to earn.

I do think the Bills will have their moments putting some drives together considering the injuries New York have on the Defensive side of the ball. The Jets could be missing both starting Corner Backs on the short week and that will give Tyrod Taylor the chance to utilise his new weapon in Kelvin Benjamin, although I do expect the big Wide Receiver to be limited in this one at best.

Taylor is also a threat to move the ball with his legs and should have success along with LeSean McCoy on the ground. While the majority of the Jets talent on this side of the ball remains in the Defensive Line, it has been possible to run against them and Buffalo should be able to have their successes.

However the Bills are not likely to put up a lot of points themselves with what has to be considered a pretty vanilla Offense. That may change once they get Benjamin accustomed to the plays, but this feels like a game in which Buffalo will very much look to the Defensive unit to help win the field position game and thus the overall game.

Buffalo are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight in the series and I like their chances here even if the Jets have been money at the window. It might not be the most pleasing game on the eye, but Buffalo are a team that look capable of a Play Off spot and they can't afford to drop this game. Backing the Bills to cover the spread in another win over the Jets looks the right side in this one.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The New Orleans Saints have put together five straight wins to remove the memory of the 0-2 start to the season when it felt like this was going to be a team in transition. There are still some big tests in front of the Saints in the tough NFC South and they face one of those in Week 9 as they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While the Saints have been something of a surprise this season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a real disappointment. They have lost four straight games and the Buccaneers have to know that time is not on their side when it comes to turning things around as they get to the halfway mark in their regular season schedule at the end of Week 9.

The problems in Florida back in September due to Hurricane Irma means Tampa Bay don't have a buy this season and that is a real problem for them as they have looked a little banged up. The biggest issue has been the shoulder injury that Jameis Winston has been trying to battle through, although the Quarter Back has been given some relief from Ryan Fitzpatrick who has entered a couple of games.

It will be Winston who goes in Week 9 and he has won in the Superdome before which means there shouldn't be any intimidation when going into the lion's den to face the NFC South leaders. However Winston will have to play to his better levels having had some problems in recent weeks, especially as the Saints Defensive unit has been playing at a better level than we have seen in years.

Winston is throwing into a Secondary who have played some big time Defense when they have needed it as some of the high Draft Picks have made off for the Saints. There are some solid weapons Winston can throw to which has to be respected, but he could find himself under pressure behind his Offensive Line and the Quarter Back also has to be more careful with the ball.

There could be some help for Winston as Doug Martin may have one of his better outings in recent weeks. While the Tampa Bay Offensive Line have not paved the way for big runs, they may have a better chance when facing this Saints Defensive Line who have had issues against the run.

Mistakes almost cost New Orleans the win over the Chicago Bears in Week 8 and those were mainly committed by Mark Ingram as two fumbles gave the Bears life in the Fourth Quarter. Ingram does have a chance for redemption with a good match up against the Buccaneers whose Defensive Line has been worn down a little bit, although Ingram will have to accept Alvin Kamara is going to get a few more touches after the fumbles last week.

Running the ball is exactly what Sean Payton wants from the Offensive unit to give the Saints the balance which will allow Drew Brees to thrive at Quarter Back. Brees has played well this season as he is usually well protected behind his quick release and being to play from third and short does make a big difference for the veteran.

The Tampa Bay Secondary have shown some improvement, but the Saints should be able to move the chains efficiently enough in this one which will force Winston and the Tampa Bay Offensive unit to play keep up.

The two teams have had contrasting results and performances in recent Divisional games and I like the New Orleans Saints in this one. They are 10-2 against the spread in their last twelve Divisional games and they look to have a better balance both Offensively and Defensively which can see them win a sixth game in a row.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonvilla Jaguars Pick: With the really unfortunate injury to Deshaun Watson, the Jacksonville Jaguars may have taken over the favourites to win the AFC South and make the Play Offs this season. A Division that has Watson and Andrew Luck sidelined and Marcus Mariota banged up definitely looks there for the taking, although the Jaguars haven't done a lot of winning in recent years which means there is a mental obstacle to overcome.

They are looking for rare back to back wins this Week as they host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10 and I have to say I was surprised with the point spread that came out for this game.

Imagine then how I am feeling when not only has the spread come out the way it did with Jacksonville as a fairly strong favourite, but that number has continued to rise as the Jaguars are now being asked to cover a Touchdown worth of points. Perhaps I have got this game completely wrong, but I do like the Bengals with the points.

That's not to say it will be easy for the Cincinnati Bengals to score points against a legit Jacksonville Defensive unit that are playing as well as any in the NFL. They have been getting to the Quarter Back with regularity that 'Sacksonville' is usually a trend on social media during their games and now the Jaguars are facing a struggling Offensive Line that have not been able to protect Andy Dalton.

Cincinnati have to establish the run to help their Quarter Back out and Jacksonville have recently traded for Marcell Dareus to try and prevent the runs they have given up. There is some talent in the Bengals Running Back corps, but they can be guilty of moving away from the ground game a little too quickly.

Without a run game it will be difficult for the Bengals to move the chains with any consistency, while Dalton has to avoid the turnovers which have blighted his game. There is nothing wrong with leaning on the Defense as their hosts have shown and the Cincinnati Bengals Defensive unit is certainly capable of keeping this one close.

While the Bengals have struggled to establish the run, Jacksonville are very much a get down and grind it out Offensive unit. Leonard Fournette is back this week at Running Back and the Jags have been able to run the ball, but this Cincinnati Defensive Line has shown they can limit the damage on the ground and that is going to be a key to their success.

If the Bengals can force Blake Bortles to have to make plays, the Cincinnati Secondary have to feel they can make the difference for their team. The Quarter Back position remains the one that most feel Jacksonville need to upgrade the most and Bortles could be put under pressure by a strong pass rush that the Bengals will bring to the table.

Mistakes have been less frequent from Bortles so far this season which is all the Jaguars are asking from him, but I am still to be convinced that the Jaguars can go as far as they want with this Quarter Back. Losses to the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Rams are still a concern for the Jaguars and I do think this is a lot of points for them to cover when you see how close the teams are matched Defensively and Offensively.

The Bengals are 3-0-2 against the spread in the last five in the series and I can't ignore that Jacksonville have gone 9-19-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine games after a win. The Jaguars are also 8-20 against the spread in their last twenty-eight games following a win by 14 points or more and I will take the points with the Bengals to keep this one close.


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Both the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts will know that they are going to have to fight without their starting Quarter Backs the rest of the season in what looks an open AFC South Division. However I don't think anyone will be rushing out to pick either team being the one to make the Play Offs as they look to have fallen behind the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans in the Division.

In Week 9 it is all about trying to win this Divisional game to give themselves a chance, but the injury to Deshaun Watson is a huge blow for the Texans who have already lost their star Defensive player in JJ Watt for the season. Watson had been a revelation for the Texans since coming in as the starting Quarter Back, but Houston have to go back to Tom Savage who simply doesn't have the same athleticism as Watson nor the same accuracy on the pass.

The ability to scramble around the pocket and make plays with his legs meant Watson's move into the starting line up had hidden the problems the Houston Offensive Line have had. Now they have a less mobile Quarter Back and also have traded away Left Tackle Duane Brown which means the Colts have every chance of stalling drives by bringing down Savage and rushing his passes.

Watson had also helped spark the running game for the Texans and that might be a little more difficult without him. However that is unlikely to be seen until later in the season as the Colts have had some problems bringing down runners so Houston should be looking to lean on Lamar Miller to try and keep Savage and the Offense in third and manageable spots.

Indianapolis won't have much sympathy for Houston to be without a starting Quarter Back as they have had to deal with being without Andrew Luck themselves. Jacoby Brissett came in from the New England Patriots, but it is clear the Quarter Back is learning on the job which has led to some critical mistakes including a pick-six last week which saw the Colts lose narrowly at the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Colts have had some major Offensive Line issues of their own, but the Texans are missing the likes of Watt and Whitney Mercilus. That shouldn't be too much of a problem in this game as Jadaveon Clowney has been playing at a high level and it has to be expected that Brissett is going to have to move a lot if he is going to find any real time to throw down the field.

Brissett does have some nice throws though and the Houston Secondary have had their problems that the likes of TY Hilton and Dante Moncrief will look to expose. Frank Gore has also been running the ball well enough to at least ease the pass rush a little bit and Indianapolis have to keep the team in third and short like the Houston Texans do if they want to move the chains themselves.

It has all the feel of a tight game with two Quarter Backs who have to avoid the fatal mistakes that have blighted them. Tom Savage was horrible in Week 1 which saw him lose the starting Quarter Back job to Watson by half time, and that makes it really hard to back him to cover this many points, especially as I think Jacoby Brissett will have his moments too.

The Colts are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four visits to the Houston Texans. This looks too many points being given to them in what feels like a close game and I will take the road underdog here.


Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The NFL has had a rash of big name players go down with injuries this season which have taken the headlines, but both the Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks will know all about that. They might not be the injuries that everyone will appreciate, but you would be ignorant to dismiss them out of hand too.

For Washington the issues begin on the Offensive Line which looks to be a mix and match unit at best in Week 9. It doesn't matter who the Quarter Back is if they are not given any time to make plays and that has to be a real concern for the Redskins when visiting the Seattle Seahawks who Sacked Deshaun Watson five times last week.

The edge rushers should have the advantage through much of the afternoon which will make it tough for Kirk Cousins when he does try and step back to throw. Losing Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed as Receiving weapons only increases the pressure on Cousins, although he might be encouraged by the fact that Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor could both be missing.

Those top Safeties would be a big miss for Seattle, but Cousins might not have the time to throw down the field as he would like. Interceptions have been a little too frequent from the Quarter Back over the last three games which is unsurprising when throwing under the heat that Cousins has been, but that could be a critical factor again.

Earlier in the season Washington may have looked to the run to rip off some big gains, but Seattle have strengthened up front. That is also an area where an Offensive Line of back ups can be a problem and it will be tough for anyone to get going at Running Back for the Redskins in this one.

Both teams do look healthier on the other side of the ball, but it is the arrival of Duane Brown at Left Tackle that must be music to the ears of Russell Wilson. Brown is a solid blocker and may mean Wilson is not running for his life, at least not as much as he has been forced to for much of the season. The Washington pass rush is an effective one though so Wilson will have to scramble some, although he is right up there as one of the best passers on the move.

It isn't an easy Secondary to throw into, but the scrambling means it gives the Receivers more time to try and get open. Seattle also have a big threat in Jimmy Graham who remained here through the trade deadline, while others outside of Doug Baldwin have made plays which will encourage the Seahawks.

Much of the Offense will come through Russell Wilson as Seattle have simply not been able to run the ball as they would have liked. Injuries and lack of form from the Running Backs has been an issue while the Redskins have played the run pretty effectively.

Of course Wilson has a chance to make those plays with his legs, but the Seahawks will want to get the run game going sooner rather than later as we get into November. For Week 9 it does feel like the Seahawks will be good enough with the Defensive unit likely to step up and restrict what the Redskins can do agains them and Wilson currently playing at a high level.

The Redskins are also 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six against Seattle and the favourite is 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven. Washington have also gone 1-5 against the spread in their last six Conference games and I think the Seattle Seahawks are able to cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 3 Points @ 1.86 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 6 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)