NFL Week 13 Picks 2023 (November 30-December 4)

It might have started poorly with the Detroit Lions laying another egg on Thanksgiving Day, but the rest of the Week 12 Picks could not have gone any better in what is the best return from a single week in the season so far.

There are still six regular season weeks to be played though and so plenty can still go wrong, which means the focus has to remain to ensure a positive return at the end of the 2023 season. The PlayOffs can always be a bit more difficult to manage, but the hope is that a solid return in the regular season will push some momentum into those selections in the run to the Super Bowl.

Thanksgiving Weekend is certainly seen as the benchmark for the focus to turn to those PlayOff runs, although we do have a smaller Week 13 schedule with a number of teams having a late Bye Week. Even then, the games increase in importance and we will begin to see some real separation as far as Divisional titles and the coveted Number 1 Seed in each Conference is concerned.

The AFC continues to produce a mass of teams chasing the Wild Card spots, but the same could be said for the NFC after the likes of Seattle and Minnesota were beaten in Week 12. There are certainly fewer contenders in the NFC, but no one should doubt the quality of those at the top of that Conference and we should get some huge games between now and the Super Bowl in February.

Last week I wrote about the way the potential PlayOff picture could shape up in both Conferences, but also stated that things change dramatically week after week.

The feeling that the Houston Texans could win the AFC South was hugely dependent on beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12, but that was not the case and now the Jaguars are a team targeting the Number 1 Seed in the AFC.

The Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions suffered big losses in Week 12 that will dent some of their ambitions- the Browns looked like a Wild Card contender, but another Quarter Back injury has dampened their expectations after losing in Denver, while the Lions hopes of finishing with the top Seed in the NFC look to be over after the defeat to the Green Bay Packers.

In saying all that, the suggestion that the Buffalo Bills would miss the PlayOffs looks much stronger after another defeat and they will need this Bye Week desperately. Things have to figured out very quickly with games against Kansas City and Dallas in Week 14 and 15 respectively, especially in the AFC where a number of teams are ahead of the 10th placed Bills with games running down.

Following the results in Week 12, the top five in my standings are as follows:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (10-1): Overtime drama saw the Eagles become the first team with double digit wins for the season. They host the 49ers this week and a win would put the Philadelphia Eagles in a very strong position to finish with the top Seed in the NFC.

2) San Francisco 49ers (9-3): they look like the team they were earlier in the season and are in complete control of the NFC West. Revenge and redemption will be on the minds as they travel East to face the Eagles, while a win would put San Francisco in a strong position to earn the top Seed in the Conference instead.

3) Baltimore Ravens (9-3): it was not the most convincing Offensive showing, but the Defensive unit is for real and going to get healthier through the Bye Week. The last four regular season games will get the Baltimore Ravens into PlayOff mode pretty quickly and they could be the team to beat in the AFC.

4) Kansas City Chiefs (8-3): the defending Super Bowl Champions will have something to say about that and looked better in Week 12. The Chiefs also look to have a very manageable end to the regular season and have to be favourites to earn the top Seed in the AFC and all roads going through Arrowhead would make them favourites for another Super Bowl appearance.

5) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3): a case could be made for Detroit, Miami or Dallas to occupy this position, but the Jaguars were most impressive in Week 12 with an important road win over the surging Houston Texans. The Dolphins and Cowboys are yet to beat 'good teams', which means they are still in the 'show me' category, while the Lions loss to the Green Bay Packers was really disappointing.

The top two face off in an incredibly good looking game on Sunday afternoon, while the Ravens are on a Bye Week. All three will still be involved in the top five next week, while only upsets could see Kansas City and Jacksonville knocked out (both are big favourites in Week 13).

Assuming those two avoid the upsets, those five teams will likely be my top five next week too, perhaps in a different order. However, that is when things will really begin to be shaken up with Philadelphia and  San Francisco facing big Divisional games, while Kansas City and Jacksonville have tough Conference games on deck.

It may also be a time when the PlayOff picture really begins to clear up, but it is important for the top teams to not overlook Week 13 opponents to the big games ahead.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Both of these teams played Divisional rivals on Thanksgiving Day and both have a very important Divisional game coming up in Week 14, but there is plenty to keep the Dallas Cowboys (8-3) and Seattle Seahawks (6-5) focused on one another on Thursday Night Football.

Instead of benefiting from a few extra days off, these two teams are playing on a 'regular' schedule between games, albeit on Thursday rather than the more traditional Sunday. That may actually be good news for the Cowboys and Seahawks who play the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers respectively in Week 14 and each team is trailing those Divisional leaders by two games.

Winning on Thursday Night Football would mean an opportunity for the Cowboys or Seahawks to really enjoy Sunday evening when the Eagles and 49ers take lumps out of one another and Dallas and Seattle will be hoping an opportunity to close the gap completely to those Divisional leaders is in front of them in Week 14.

Looking ahead would be a mistake and the teams are meeting in Week 13 after different Thanksgiving Day experiences- the Cowboys blew out the Washington Commanders, while the Seahawks suffered a blow out defeat to the very strong looking 49ers.

Pete Carroll has to be concerned with the run of games coming up for Seattle and he will be hoping that Geno Smith is healthier with another week of recovery under his belt. The Quarter Back had a rough day in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers, but Smith is not going to have things any easier against this Dallas Cowboys Defensive unit.

The Offensive Line has been struggling and Kenneth Walker III is set to miss another game at Running Back so even the hope of being able to establish the ground attack may be beyond the Seahawks. It is almost vital for them to be able to run the ball if only to slow down this Cowboys pass rush that is likely going to be in Geno Smith's any time he drops back to throw down the field.

Last week the 49ers pressure made it next to impossible for the Seahawks to get much going through the air and the feeling is that this game is going to look very similar on that side of the ball. It has to be a big concern for the Seattle fans with the team dropping back to back games to fall into a closer Wild Card race than may have been expected a couple of weeks ago.

We may get a similar look on the Offensive side of the ball to what we saw out of Seattle on Thanksgiving Day and a major concern is that the Defense is not going to be able to slow down a Cowboys team that put up 45 points in their own Turkey Day outing.

All season we have seen Dallas dominate at home and they are playing with a strong rhythm under Mike McCarthy's guidance since he took over the play-calling on this side of the ball. They are unlikely to be distracted by the upcoming game against the Philadelphia Eagles as that will be almost meaningless unless Dallas can win this one and the feeling is that the Cowboys will be able to do what they like when they have the ball in their hands.

Dak Prescott is seemingly never that far away from throwing in a really poor outing, but he will be able to rely on this Offensive Line to give him time in the pocket. The Dallas Offensive Line has also been very strong at opening up holes for Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle, while both players are also going to be a key part of the passing game.

Earlier in the season the Seahawks Defense looked to be playing at a high level, but they have found things more difficult of late and this Dallas team are capable of finding a balance that is tough to stop.

As long as Dak Prescott remains focused and does not have his multi-turnover kind of day, the Quarter Back should be able to work out of a clean pocket and the Cowboys can keep the chains moving with consistency throughout this contest.

Dallas have remained perfect as the home favourite with a 5-0 record against the spread and they can match the kind of dominant wins that the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have handed out to Seattle.

The Defensive unit can step up and make some big plays in the second half to ensure the Cowboys are able to pull away and they are expected to win by double digits on Thursday Night Football.

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders Pick: After the crushing loss at the Dallas Cowboys, Ron Rivera may have feared that his time as Head Coach of the Washington Commanders (4-8) was going to come to an end. That is still looking likely at the end of the season, but Rivera remains in charge, even if he has been told that friend and Defensive Co-Ordinator Jack Del Rio had to be let go.

It was never going to be easy for any Defensive Co-Ordinator as soon as the Commanders began to trade away key pass rushers, which has exposed the Washington Secondary.

Now they have to face the Miami Dolphins (8-3) and the high-powered Offensive unit that is run by Mike McDaniels, although recent weeks have been tougher for the Dolphins. They were never going to sustain the early season numbers, but Miami have got room for improvement on recent outings and they are simply not as effective on the road as they are at home.

In saying that, Miami did win on the road last week at the New York Jets and they will have a balanced approach that is going to be very difficult for the Washington Commanders to deal with.

Raheem Mostert has shown he can power the running game for the Dolphins and he should help establish the run against this Washington Defensive Line that has struggled. With a pass rush not nearly as effective without Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington's Secondary have really been having problems against any Quarter Back they have faced, and Tua Tagovailoa should be able to get Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle very much into the action.

The Miami Dolphins are not producing their very best Offensively, but this is the chance to 'get right' and make sure they are keeping the pressure on those below them in the AFC East.

However, the wins have kept coming from the Dolphins without big Offensive performances thanks to an improving Defense under Vic Fangio's guidance. They have gotten healthier, even if they have lost Jaelan Phillips for the season, and the Dolphins have looked like they can produce enough on this side of the ball to really believe they could make a run to the Super Bowl.

A statement can be made in this game against a Washington team struggling in all aspects of their Football.

Sam Howell has not been helped by this Offensive Line, who will also have a difficult time establishing the run against the improving Miami Defensive Line. That puts even more pressure on the Quarter Back and he is going to be facing a Miami Secondary that has made plenty of big plays, just ask Tim Boyle from Week 12.

Those plays could give the Dolphins those extra possessions that will be needed to cover a number like this one on the road, and Miami have the capabilities to do that.

A big road favourite is not an ideal team to be backing, but this is a good spot for the Miami Dolphins to have a big game on both sides of the ball and they can win and cover.

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There has to be some frustration with the surprisingly poor performance on Thanksgiving Day, but the Detroit Lions (8-3) remain in control of the NFC North. Head Coach Dan Campbell will have been looking forward to this road game, but he will have spent a few extra days with his players to prepare them to bounce back from the home defeat to the Green Bay Packers.

They are facing the New Orleans Saints (5-6) in Week 13 and the home team are still very much in contention for a place in the post-season, despite the losing record.

The NFC South has proven to be one of the weaker Divisions in the NFL with all four teams holding a losing record and the Saints are sitting alongside the Atlanta Falcons with their 5-6 mark. The defeat to the Falcons in Week 12 will have really hurt New Orleans, but they will be playing at home in this one and that has to give them a chance to bounce back.

However, the Saints are dealing with a huge amount of injuries and have an important Divisional game on deck, which may take some of the focus away from this game. New Orleans will be keen to win, but playing without a number of key performers on both sides of the ball makes it very difficult to imagine how the Saints can keep themselves competitive.

The likes of Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Kendre Miller are all likely to be missing from the New Orleans Offensive unit, while Alvin Kamara may have to be used more effectively in the passing game. The Running Back is very capable, but he may not have a lot of success pounding the ball against the Lions Defensive Line and it becomes tougher for Derek Carr at Quarter Back without some of the names mentioned.

While he can target Kamara and Michael Thomas, being without Olave and Shaheed is a tough situation for Derek Carr. There have been some problems in the Lions Secondary in recent games and they were really taken aback by the Green Bay passing attack on Thanksgiving Day, but it is going to be very hard for Derek Carr to replicate that with back up Receivers on the field.

However, the Saints are going to have some opportunities to move the ball as long as they can avoid the turnovers that have swing games against them.

It is also going to be a difficult day trying to slow down the Detroit Offense, which is going to want to make a point after the defeat to the Packers when Jared Goff was guilty of really hurting his team with turnovers.

Jared Goff should be playing out of a clean pocket, but the Quarter Back will also benefit from being able to hand the ball to David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs who should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground behind the Lions Offensive Line. In recent games, the Saints have not been able to stop the run very effectively and Montgomery and Gibbs should be able to showcase their tandem powers at the Running Back position.

This is going to open up some of the passing lanes for Jared Goff and the Lions can recover from their defeat on Thanksgiving Day.

Road favourites had a very good Week 12, but it is not easy to win by big margins in hostile environments, although the extra preparation time between games is an advantage for Dan Campbell's team. The Lions have been better at home over the last twelve months, but playing in an indoor Stadium is not going to be a problem for them in Week 13 and they can win and cover here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Even the return of Kyler Murray has not been able to turn things around for the Arizona Cardinals (2-10) and this season cannot end quickly enough. They are set to earn a high Draft Pick, although the players on the roster will want to be kept around for a rebuild, while also trying to play spoiler for those chasing post-season spots.

Games against Divisional rivals will mean a lot more to the players in general, and you have to question where Arizona will find the motivation to win this game. For starters they are facing a non-Conference opponent and the Cardinals are playing in an early slot on Sunday afternoon.

They are also facing a Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) team looking to prove that former Offensive Co-Ordinator Matt Canada was the problem having won their first game since Canada was fired. It was a very strong Offensive effort to beat the Cincinnati Bengals and the Steelers have a good chance to back that up against this Cardinals Defense which has been struggling.

A big problem for the Cardinals is that the Defensive Line have not been able to clamp down on the run at all- with that in mind, you have to think this is a really bad match up for Arizona when facing Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris and this Pittsburgh Offensive Line which has opened up some big running lanes in recent games.

Kenny Pickett has been banged up at Quarter Back, but he should be able to operate out of a relatively clean pocket if the Steelers are running the ball as they should be able to do. He can then target his Receivers from third and manageable spots to keep the chains moving, while Pickett may even be able to open up and take some deep shots down the field.

The expectation is that Pittsburgh should be able to produce another relatively strong outing on the Offensive side of the ball and that will put some pressure on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals Offense.

James Connor will be highly motivated to produce a big game in a City he loves, but the Running Back could have a tough time with an improving Pittsburgh Defensive Line. He could be helped by Kyler Murray's ability to scramble, which may mean Connor can become a key part of any RPO plays that are run by Arizona, but the Steelers have clamped down on the run with enough strength to force Murray to beat them through the air.

It has made life tougher playing behind this Arizona Offensive Line, and Kyler Murray is not exactly blessed with the most consistent of skill players. Marquise Brown is a former Baltimore Raven who would love to remind the Steelers what they might have been 'missing', but he is banged up an the Cardinals are likely going to be throwing with a collapsing pocket all around Murray.

That could potentially lead to a mistake or two from the Quarter Back and the Pittsburgh Steelers may produce one of their bigger wins of the season.

There has to be a slight concern that Pittsburgh are set to play on Thursday Night Football, but they will not want to take advantage of the fact that AFC North leaders Baltimore are not playing in Week 13. Add in the fact that the Week 14 game in a few days time is against the really bad New England Patriots and the Steelers should have the motivation and focus to win this one by more than a Touchdown.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade (November 25th)

There are some big nights left between now and the end of the calendar year, but this may be the best main event that we have left.

An argument could be made for Devin Haney vs Regis Prograis, while casual fans may be more intrigued by the deep card set up in Saudi Arabia a couple of days before Christmas, but this one between David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade is expected to set up the next Challenger for Canelo Alvarez and the Undisputed Super Middleweight Belts he holds.

This weekend we have a rematch between Katie Taylor and Chantelle Cameron in Ireland too, but most eyes will be on the last really big Showtime card from the United States.

David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade

There is a genuine feeling that if it wasn't for the gold at the end of the line that these two fighters may be operating in very different Divisions.

In recent years, both David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade have called out Canelo Alvarez time and time again without getting the pound for pound superstar n the ring.

Without that potential bout, you have to feel that Benavidez would have moved up to 175 pounds and Andrade would be operating in the Middleweight Division. Instea both insist on making the Super Middleweight limit and try and force that fight with Canelo Alvarez, one that could be career defining and, perhaps even more importantly for the two potential Challengers, highly rewarding financially.

After the deal Canelo Alvarez signed with PBC, it does sound like the winner of this one is going to be first in line to take on Alvarez next May.

And that means both David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade have to leave it all in the ring.

Inactivity has to be a real concern for Demetrius Andrade, while it cannot be ignored that he has had a single fight in the Super Middleweight Division. This will be just the second fight he has had in a little over two years and Andrade is in with someone who is much bigger than him.

David Benavidez has not been a lot more active, but his win over Caleb Plant earlier this year will certainly mean he has less ring rust to shift.

That is also a quality win and there is a feeling that Andrade has wasted his potential by taking too many 'easy' fights and simply sitting on the sidelines and hoping a big fight lands in his lap. He might be quick early, but Demetrius Andrade is going to find it very difficult to keep David Benavidez from grinding forward and breaking him down.

Credit has to be given to Caleb Plant for coming through some very rough moments late in the defeat to Benavidez.

However, he is naturally a bigger man than Andrade and the feeling is that the relentless pressure that David Benavidez brings into every fight will eventually break through the Andrade defences. The slickness will take Andrade so far, but the feeling has long been that David Benavidez is going to be too big and too strong for his undefeated opponent who has moved too far up the Divisions.

Demetrius Andrade can use his movement and pot shots to just keep David Benavidez honest for three or four Rounds, but by halfway you have to expect the bigger man to have taken control. At some point Demetrius Andrade may be forced to make a decision as to how much he is willing to risk, but Benavidez will not stop moving forward and a referee stoppage could be in play late on.

A decent undercard has been put together for this main event and Hector Luis Garcia can return to the Super Featherweight limit to defend his World Title successfully.

It should be a decent fight against Lamont Roach, while the Subriel Matias and Shohjahon Ergashev bout looks like being a potential show stealer.

Subriel Matias can showcase his power to defend his IBF Light-Welterweight Title.

And after some personal issues, Jermall Charlo is back in the ring, even if he is not being asked to defend his World Middleweight Title.

Assuming he can make a deal after missing weight, Charlo has the chance to impress against Jose Benavidez Jr who is fighting way outside his weight class.

Ring rust will mean Jermall Charlo needs to take some time, but Benavidez Jr is the naturally smaller fighter and has never fought at this limit before. That has to show up and Charlo can find some big punches late to force a Stoppage before chasing bigger fights in 2024.

Over in Dublin, the rematch between Katie Taylor and Chantelle Cameron will take place and the feeling is that we are likely to see repeat, rather than revenge.

The odds reflect that with Cameron favourite this time, but the selections from the card come from the undercard.

Paddy Donovan can continue his progress with another Stoppage win over Danny Ball- the British fighter has experience and a decent record, but big thins are expected from Donovan and Danny Ball was Stopped when stepping up to face Ekow Essuman.

It was not just a nightmare for Katie Taylor in Dublin in May, but Gary Cully was stunned in a Stoppage defeat.

He can bounce back on his return against Reece Mould and Cully can make the home fans much happier with a big Stoppage win of his own.

MY PICKS: David Benavidez to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Subriel Matias to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.57 Coral (2 Units)

Jermall Charlo to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Bet365 (2 Units)

Paddy Donovan to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Gary Cully to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 55-103, - 38.73 Units (292 Units Staked, - 13.26% Yield) 

College Football Week 13 Picks 2023 (November 24-25)

There is plenty on the line for the best teams in College Football over the next two weeks as they negotiate 'rivalry week' before the Championship Games are played.

With only four places available for those chasing a National Championship, there is very little room for error, while a number of one loss teams hope to force their way into the conversation.

In twelve months time, there is not going to be nearly as much drama in the final two weeks with the College Football PlayOff format expanded to be available for twelve teams. You could pick the top twelve from this season without much drama and that may not be the best thing for the College Football regular season going forward, even if the fans could benefit from some big time PlayOff action.

Ultimately finding the balance between a competitive and meaningful regular season and a strong PlayOff format is not easy- only the NFL seems to have gotten that right so far, but no one would be surprised if there another PlayOff expansion sooner rather than later and they may end up moving in a similar direction as some of the other major North American sports.

Only one change occurred in the top four College Football Rankings when the Washington Huskies moved ahead of the Florida State Seminoles.

The Huskies were winners as road underdogs in Week 12 and they will likely be selected for the College Football PlayOff if they can win their remaining two games, although the Oregon Ducks look a significant Conference danger.

We don't really know why the Committee selects the teams in the positions they do from week to week, but there has to be have been some impact from the Jordan Travis injury.

The Florida State Quarter Back suffered a serious looking injury in Week 12 and you can only hope that Travis will make a full recovery as he hopes to continues to his career at the next level.

Despite losing a key player, the Seminoles will still believe an unbeaten season would be good enough for them to earn a top four place in the final standings, especially as Ohio State and Michigan are facing one another in Week 13.

However, that path looks much more troubling without Jordan Travis and the Seminoles might actually be an underdog when they face the Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Championship Game.

Rivalry Week is coming up though and so much can change with motivation to play spoiler extremely high for those underdogs playing some of the Ranked teams over the next couple of days.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: They have already secured the Big Ten West Divisional title and the Iowa Hawkeyes (9-2) will be looking for double digit winning season as soon as the end of Week 12.

However, there is a feeling that the Hawkeyes could overlook this final game of the regular season knowing they are playing in the Big Ten Championship Game next week no matter what. It may mean they do not want to risk key players, and the Hawkeyes have been playing with tight margins even when their best available team has been put on the field.

They head to Lincoln to play the Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-6) who are at the beginning of what first year Head Coach Matt Rhule considers to be a significant transitional period to bring the Cornhuskers back up amongst the best teams in College Football.

It has been a difficult period, but the Rhule knows how close the Cornhuskers are to earning Bowl eligibility with just a single win needed. The Head Coach has overseen three losses in a row and those have been by a combined 13 points and led to some frustration that his Nebraska team have not already reached the six win cut off point.

Earning that sixth win against the Hawkeyes is going to be a considerable challenge, although the Nebraska Cornhuskers will know they are not going to be blown away by this opponent.

As impressive as Iowa have been Defensively, they have been struggling Offensively and that has led to an unprecedented run of total points line set by the oddsmakers. Right now they cannot make that total line low enough with the Hawkeyes playing six consecutive 'unders' and the line is at 25.5 total points for this one.

Barring a complete loss of focus for Iowa, which cannot be completely ruled out, it also makes the points being given to the road underdog look pretty appealing.

Iowa are Offensively challenged and they are not going to find a lot of room to operate against the Nebraska Defensive unit. Running the ball has been tough, while the Hawkeyes have not really had a Quarter Back that they can rely upon.

Deacon Hill is likely to get the call at Quarter Back, while the Hawkeyes will still give Leshon Williams a lot of carries and hope he can rip something open. The Nebraska Secondary have allowed some passing lanes to develop and Hill may be able to expose those at some point, especially as he is likely going to have some time in the pocket.

On Thursday night, Brock Purdy will be playing an important NFL game on Thanksgiving Day, and on Friday his younger brother Chubba Purdy is expected to be given the start by Nebraska at Quarter Back. Chubba Purdy, like Jeff Sims and Heinrich Haarberg, is a dual threat Quarter Back and that is going to be key for the Cornhuskers as they look to find a way to move the ball against this tough Iowa Defensive unit.

Nebraska's Offensive Line have helped establish the run, but Purdy and the Cornhuskers may not find much change out of this Hawkeyes Defensive Line.

They do not match up that well with the Hawkeyes Offensively and Chubba Purdy might not have many good places to throw the ball. The Hawkeyes should be able to generate some pressure with their pass rush and that may lead to a couple of mistakes, which shifts the game in favour of Iowa.

The Cornhuskers have not been the best home favourite to back and even this relatively small spread looks like one that the Iowa Hawkeyes can use to their advantage, even in a losing effort.

Nebraska are highly motivated to try and secure a Bowl bid, but the Hawkeyes should also want to build momentum into the Big Ten Championship Game and this should be another low-scoring, grinder Iowa have been involved in.

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Texas Longhorns Pick: This has been a season when a number of old rivalries will be played for the last time for the foreseeable future and this is another one of those games in the Big 12 Conference.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-5) do not need a lot of motivation to want to play spoiler for the Texas Longhorns (10-1), but doing that in the final season that the Longhorns are playing in the Big 12 would be all the sweeter.

Even a loss may not prevent Texas from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, but they have a loss already on the record and the Red Raiders could end any Longhorns hopes of making the College Football PlayOff by winning in Austin.

Three wins in a row has given the Red Raiders some momentum and they certainly will believe they can move the ball against this Texas Defensive unit. However, much is going to depend on Behren Morton at Quarter Back even if Tahj Brooks has been the best Offensive option for the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The problem for the Red Raiders is that Brooks is going to find it very difficult to pound the rock against the Texas Defensive Line which has been strong against the run all season. Even in recent games, the Longhorns have held teams to an average of 1.7 yards per carry and so it will be tough for Tahj Brooks to continue his strong season in which he has churned out 100 yards per game on the ground on a weekly basis.

Behren Morton is going to be the starting Quarter Back and Tyler Shough has announced that he will be entering the transfer portal- this may allow Morton to play with some freedom against a Longhorns Secondary that has given up plenty of passing yards in recent games.

It will be important for Texas Tech to have the confidence in Behren Morton to make his throws in what could be a potential shoot out with the Texas Longhorns.

The one key difference between these teams is that the Longhorns should have a lot more Offensive balance compared with Texas Tech and that should give them the edge as they look to secure a Big 12 Championship Game appearance.

Establishing the run will be challenging for the Red Raiders, but the Longhorns Offensive Line should be able to open up some big holes up front. CJ Baxter came in as the starting Running Back for Jonathan Brooks, who has had his season ended by injury, and he picked up where Brooks left off with a strong performance on the ground and can certainly do the same here.

It should mean Quinn Ewers can have another solid day throwing the ball for the Texas Longhorns without having to push himself too hard as he continues his recovery from a shoulder injury. Having Ewers returning at Quarter Back is a positive for the Texas Longhorns and playing in front of the chains should mean he can attack this Red Raiders Secondary with real confidence.

With a limited pass rush trying to deal with this strong Offensive Line, Quinn Ewers will have time to make his decisions and Texas should be able to do enough to pull away for an important victory.

There is pressure to win and secure a place in the Big 12 Championship Game, while keeping the College Football PlayOff hopes alive, but Texas have shown they can cope in recent games. They have not been able to put up the big Offensive points as they would have liked, but the Longhorns can use the home crowd to wear down the Texas Tech Red Raiders and win this one by a couple of Touchdowns.

Michigan State Spartans vs Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Being in the Big Ten East Division means having to face two of the current top three in the College Football Rankings and that has proven to be a step too far for the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2).

The record is one that the players should be proud of, but both Penn State losses have been to the unbeaten Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes. Performances outside of those two games have been very strong and even those two losses have been in tight, competitive outings.

It makes the Nittany Lions one of the better teams in College Football, although that is not likely to be reflected in their eventual Bowl Game.

Well that is also on the assumption that the two top Big Ten East teams are not both invited into the College Football PlayOff, although there is still a possibility for whichever of the teams lose when the Wolverines and Buckeyes meet in Week 13.

The Nittany Lions are big favourites when travelling to the Michigan State Spartans (4-7), who are probably glad to see the back of this season. The Spartans have had to fire their Head Coach mid-season for off field issues, while they have looked considerably short compared to their other Divisional rivals.

However, Michigan State have won two of their last three games, both in the Big Ten Conference, and that may give them some confidence.

This game is being played in Detroit rather than on the Michigan State campus, and that is a disappointment to the fans even if they are expected to travel. The Spartans will be more concerned with trying to find a way to move the ball with any kind of consistency as they face one of the top Defensive units not only in the Conference, but in College Football.

It might have helped if the Spartans had shown any Offensive consistency prior to Week 13, but that has not been the case. The Spartans will struggle to run the ball and that only increases the pressure on Katin Houser at Quarter Back who had 245 passing yards in Week 12 with 3 Touchdown passes, although he did also have 2 Interceptions against the Indiana Hoosiers.

Throwing against the Indiana Secondary is much 'easier' than being able to do so against the Penn State Nittany Lions who have held teams to 161 passing yards per game for the season. Even the top Quarter Backs in the Conference have struggled to find much consistency throwing the ball against the Penn State Secondary and Houser is not expected to have a lot of good fortune in this game.

Being able to establish the run should give the Penn State Nittany Lions an edge in this game and they can pick up some big gains on the ground. In recent games, the Spartans Defensive Line have allowed teams to average 4.5 yards per carry and pick up over 175 yards per game on the ground and that is while facing some of the weaker teams in the Conference.

Now they have to deal with this tough Penn State Offensive Line and the expectation is that the Nittany Lions will be able to establish the run and make things easy for whoever starts at Quarter Back.

Drew Allar is expected to be available, but Beau Primula filled in when Allar went down with an injury at Quarter Back last week and is expected to be given some snaps in this one regardless. Both were more effective as runners last week, but they should be able to attack this Spartans Secondary with some success.

The Penn State Offensive Line is not only effective in run blocking, but they have given the Quarter Back time in the pocket and the Nittany Lions should be able to move the ball and score enough points to cover a big line.

With the Defensive unit expected to largely contain the Michigan State Spartans on the other side of the ball, Penn State should become the latest of the top teams in the Big Ten who crush the Michigan State Spartans. In a neutral setting, the Nittany Lions should be able to pull clear and produce another big win after beating Rutgers by 21 ponts last week.

Head Coach James Franklin is known for covering as a favourite in his time leading the Penn State Nittany Lions and his team have the best 'cover rate' as a favourite since 2014.

They are 8-1 against the spread as the favourite this season and Franklin is not afraid of running up the score when his team are on top. That may be the case in this Week 13 game and Penn State can win and cover in this 'road' game against the Michigan State Spartans.

Kentucky Wildcats @ Louisville Cardinals Pick: The large majority of 'Rivalry Week' games will involve teams playing in the same Conference, but there are some that matter even if they don't have Conference implications.

One of those takes place on Saturday when the Louisville Cardinals (10-1) try to snap a four game losing run against rivals Kentucky Wildcats (6-5). Both teams have already secured some of their aims this season with the Cardinals playing in the ACC Championship Game and the Wildcats being Bowl eligible, but there is no doubting the in-State rivalry and what it means to the fans, the players and the Coaching Staff involved.

A 12-1 season is entirely possible for the Louisville Cardinals, but the PlayOff Committee have shown little appetite to push them up the College Rankings. It means even winning the ACC Championship is unlikely to end with a place in the top four and the PlayOff, but there will be plenty of other teams around the nation looking for the Cardinals to snap the Florida State unbeaten run if the Seminoles are able to get out of this week.

Jeff Brohm will know all about the importance of focusing on this week having been a former Quarter Back with Louisville and the Head Coach is having a very successful first season in charge. His reputation as a Head Coach is growing and growing, but Brohm knows what makes the fans happy and that means winning this game.

Louisville have won four in a row since their upset loss against the Pittsburgh Panthers, although the Defensive unit have not been at their best in the last couple of weeks. That will need to improve if they are going to win out this season, although the Cardinals do look to match up well with the Kentucky Offensive unit that has just struggled down the stretch.

The Cardinals are strong at the Defensive Line and will force the Wildcats to take to the air in order to move the chains. Ray Davis will get the yards he needs to earn 1000 yards for the season on the ground, but the Wildcats need to be more consistent with their passing game and will not be able to afford the mistakes they made in losing to the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 12.

Nothing will be easy for Louisville on the other side of the ball as they look to also establish the run, but more consistent play out of the Quarter Back position will mean Kentucky cannot focus solely on clamping down on the run. Jack Plummer will need to play a clean game to just open up some of the running lanes, but he has played well enough at Quarter Back and has thrown over 550 yards and 5 Touchdown passes in his last couple of starts.

You cannot ignore the dominance that the Kentucky Wildcats have enjoyed in this Rivalry series over the last four years, but the edge has to be with the Louisville Cardinals on current form. Covering this number will not be easy considering some of the inconsistent performances on both sides of the ball over the last couple of weeks, but the Kentucky Wildcats have been having a tough time with five losses in six games.

They have suffered some blowout defeats in that time and the Louisville Cardinals can roll into the ACC Championship Game having given the fans at home a very good send off in the 2023 season.

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: The Georgia Bulldogs may be the current Number 1 team in the College Football Rankings, but the next two places are filled by the top two teams in the Big Ten. Both cannot make it through to the Championship Game though as the Michigan Wolverines (11-0) prepare to host the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) with the Big Ten East Division on the line.

Ultimately the winner is going to be a huge favourite to win the Big Ten Championship Game and they will then be almost certainly going to be selected to play in the College Football PlayOff.

Things will be a lot murkier for the losing team with one loss on the record and without the chance to make amends by winning a Conference Championship. Last season it did not prevent both the Buckeyes and Wolverines in making the PlayOff despite the latter winning this huge rivalry game.

Both ended up being narrowly beaten in those PlayOff Games without making the National Championship Game, but the focus this year is to win this final regular season game and move onto the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa next week.

Unsurprisingly these teams are really matched up well and it does feel there will be little between them, even though the Michigan Wolverines have blown out the Buckeyes in each of the last two seasons. The Wolverines were big underdogs in both 2021 and 2022, but won those games by 15 and 22 points respectively, although the situation is going to feel different in 2023 with Michigan set as a favourite.

Seven of the last nine games between the Wolverines and Buckeyes have seen the underdog cover the spread and this is another where taking the points looks the best call.

On both sides of the ball, the trenches are going to be key.

However, the Ohio State Offensive Line have at least been helping produce much bigger plays compared with the Michigan Offensive Line and that may show up in this game. Blake Corum may be the stand out Running Back in the game, but his Wolverines Offensive Line may find it tough to really get something going against the Buckeyes Defensive Line, which means there is arguably going to be more pressure on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back compared with Kyle McCord.

Ohio State's Secondary play has been very strong in recent wins and the Buckeyes look to be peaking at the right time.

Avoiding errors is going to be the key and the team that wins the turnover battle will come out on top.

Picking out which of these teams will be able to do that is never going to be easy with the fine margins at play, but the feeling is that the Ohio State Buckeyes are playing at a slightly stronger level than the Michigan Wolverines right now.

Ryan Day and his players do have some mental demons to exorcise having been crushed by Michigan in back to back years, but they can certainly make enough plays to keep this one much closer. Having more than a Field Goal advantage in a rivalry that has been dominated by the underdog in recent years look like enough points to want to keep on your side and the Buckeyes can potentially win this one outright.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Auburn Tigers Pick: The SEC Championship Game is set for next week and that means the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1) still have hopes of making the College Football PlayOff. The loss to the Texas Longhorns will not be a massive issue if the Crimson Tide win out and the Longhorns win the Big 12 Championship, although that does mean Alabama winning two big games in a row.

They are effectively playing off a Bye having crushed an overmatched opponent in Week 12, but there has also been a familiar feel about Alabama over the last month. Earlier in the season it did look like being a transitional year for a team that hands off a lot of talent to the NFL every year, but the Crimson Tide are motoring now and their big wins over the Tennessee Volunteers and LSU Tigers have impressed, and the Crimson Tide are up to Number 8 in the PlayOff Rankings.

Beating the Auburn Tigers (6-5) may not impress the Committee too much, especially after the Tigers were embarrassingly beaten by the New Mexico State Aggies at home in Week 12. They were 25 point favourites, but Auburn were beaten by 21 points, while they had won three SEC games in succession and looked to be building momentum before the really disappointing defeat.

Some of the reasoning has to be that the Auburn Tigers were looking ahead to this big rivalry game as they hope to put the final nail in the coffin as far as the Alabama hopes of making the PlayOff are concerned. They will also have been keen to dent any Alabama confidence ahead of playing the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game and there is little doubt that Auburn are going to be a lot more focused and significantly better in Week 13 compared to what we saw in Week 12.

Payton Thorne is a dual-threat Quarter Back and it does feel like a game in which his legs will be more important than his arm, while Jarquez Hunter will also be expected to earn a lot of carries. The Auburn Offensive Line have been strong up front and there have been one or two holes in the Alabama Defensive Line in recent games which should give the home underdog an opportunity to establish the run.

While the game is competitive, it is imperative for Auburn to move the ball forward on the ground and give Thorne an opportunity to attack a Secondary which is playing well. Converting First Downs is clearly going to be easier from Third and Short situations and Auburn may actually make a few more Offensive plays than they managed in an unfocused defeat to the Aggies.

Moving the ball, extending drives and keeping the Alabama Offensive unit on the sidelines to lose rhythm will give Auburn the chance to keep this close, but it is unlikely that they will earn the upset.

After some early teething problems, Jalen Milroe and the Alabama Offense look to have found their mojo and they are rolling on this side of the ball.

The Quarter Back will be aided by his Offensive Line which has found their feet when it comes to run blocking and the Crimson Tide are expected to bully this Auburn Defensive Line. Alabama should be able to rip off some big plays on the ground and that is only going to make very comfortable for a confident Jalen Milroe who is playing at a level that many have come to expect from a Crimson Tide Quarter Back.

The Offensive Line have offered Milroe plenty of protection, although it will be a test to throw the ball against this Auburn Secondary.

However, Jalen Milroe has displayed his strength in the passing game since his early struggles and the expectation is that Alabama will be able to produce another big win against a Divisional rival.

Alabama have won three in a row against the Auburn Tigers and two of those wins have been in blowouts.

However, playing in Auburn is obviously going to be much tougher and the last three games between these rivals hosted by the Tigers have been really competitive. It is perhaps not wise to put too much stock into the Auburn performance last week, but the feeling is that Alabama may have just enough balance Offensively to pull clear and put a strong win on the board before the SEC Championship Game.

Arizona Wildcats @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: By the time this game kicks off, the situation at the top of the Pac-12 will have cleared up and the Arizona Wildcats (8-3) will know if a place in the Championship Game is still a possibility. Even if it isn't this has been a successful year for the Wildcats and winning this rivalry game will mean they are a Bowl win away from double digits for the season.

That should give the team plenty of motivation as they travel to the Arizona State Sun Devils (3-8) who will be glad that a tough season is about to come to a close.

They did upset the UCLA Bruins a couple of weeks ago and so the Sun Devils need to be afforded some respect, even if that result has been sandwiched by blowout losses to the Utah Utes and Oregon Ducks. There is a feeling that Arizona State could have been looking ahead to this game when being crushed by the Ducks in Week 12, although there is also no question that there is a talent gap between the teams.

Some may feel it is going to be more of the same in Week 13, although these rivalry games have a tendency to throw up a surprise result or two.

It just might be a real challenge for the Arizona State Offensive unit to find the consistency to move the ball against this Wildcats team. The Arizona Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run effectively all season and they may be looking to make Arizona State a little one-dimensional, which will then allow the Wildcats pass rush to flourish.

Jaden Rashada is hoping to return for Arizona State in this last game of the 2023 season, but it will be tough for any Quarter Back if the Sun Devils are not able to run the ball as is the expectation. There have been one or two holes in the Wildcats Secondary which can be exposed, but it is tough with the lack of inconsistency Arizona State have had out of the Quarter Back position, while even tougher when you think the team could be trying to make throws out of third and long positions.

A balanced Offensive unit is always going to be much tougher to defend than a potentially one-dimensional one and the Arizona Wildcats look to have an edge on the other side of the ball. While their own Defensive Line has been stout against the run, the Arizona Offensive Line have been able to open up some big running lanes and now face a Sun Devils Defensive Line that have been really been worn down over the last month.

Jonah Coleman should be able to add plenty of yards on the ground and it should make life very comfortable for Noah Fifita at Quarter Back.

He has really been a revelation for Arizona at the position and Fifita should have time in the pocket to hurt an Arizona State Secondary that has been given up plenty of yards through the air.

With this in mind, it does feel like the Wildcats are going to be able to move the ball much more consistently and efficiently than the Arizona State Sun Devils and that can play out on the scoreboard.

As mentioned, rivalry games have a habit of throwing the form book out of the window, but the Wildcats should be focused and winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball gives them a serious edge.

The underdog has covered in five of the last seven between these schools, but Arizona did snap a five game losing run outright when beating Arizona State last year. That was a victory by 3 points in a game they were favoured to win by 4 points, but in 2023 the edge has to be with the Wildcats to be able to produce a much more impressive result all around.

MY PICKS: Iowa Hawkeyes + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 13.5 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 8.5 Points @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals - 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Wildcats - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Duke Blue Devils - 4.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Colorado Buffaloes + 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 27 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas Jayhawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

NFL Week 12 Picks 2023 (November 23-27)

Week 10 was a very poor one for the NFL Picks, but the bounce back in Week 11 is important and keeps things ticking along this season.

As we approach Thanksgiving Day in the United States, attention will have turned to the NFL PlayOffs and there were more big injuries in Week 11 that has changed the outlook for teams.

One of those is the Cincinnati Bengals- many believed the Bengals could win the Super Bowl, but it has been a tough season with Joe Burrow struggling with injury early on. And just when the momentum looked to be finally building behind the Bengals, Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury last Thursday, which has left the Cincinnati Bengals looking well short in the AFC.

It doesn't help that they are the only team in the AFC North that doesn't hold a winning record and Jake Browning is extremely inexperienced at Quarter Back as he takes over from Burrow. It feels like a long shot for the Bengals to even make the PlayOffs right now, especially with six of the remaining seven teams on the schedule all holding a winning record.

Another year is also over for the New York Jets for all intents and purposes after a blowout loss at the Buffalo Bills.

Last week the decision to hold onto Zach Wilson as the starting Quarter Back, despite the Jets making it clear they did not feel he was ready in the off-season, was criticised. And it feels like the Jets have had enough too with Wilson pulled out in the Third Quarter of the blowout loss in Buffalo and now being relegated to third string Quarter Back as the Jets begin to think about getting Aaron Rodgers healthy and trying to go again in 2024.

The Seattle Seahawks will be concerned about Geno Smith at Quarter Back and will know that their season is likely resting on the outcome of any scans he has this week. Drew Lock looks way below the standards needed and the Seahawks face the San Francisco 49ers twice in the next three weeks when their chances of winning the NFC West will be decided.

If Smith is ruled out, the Seahawks may struggle to even make the Wild Card places, but otherwise they should be able to win enough games to earn one of those places.

Three more wins is expected to be enough to make the PlayOffs in the NFC, but Seattle may struggle to even do that if Lock is asked to spend considerable time at Quarter Back.

This will change on a week to week basis, but a very early look at how the PlayOffs could stand did bring up some surprises.

Looking ahead, I can see the NFC South being won by a team with a losing record, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may just sneak out the Division and host a Wild Card Game in January.

The Dallas Cowboys could be the team heading into that game with all of the pressure on the road team who should be able to secure as many as 12 wins, although still finishing behind the Philadelphia Eagles.

There is still a chance that the Detroit Lions could finish with the joint-best record in the NFC along with the aforementioned Eagles with a much more comfortable looking schedule of the two teams. Winning the Number 1 Seed could actually be determined by a big Week 17 game when the Lions visit the Cowboys, but we have seen how quickly an outlook can change for a team depending on injuries.

I have said for a while that the top teams, injury withstanding, in the NFC look pretty easy to pick out. The NFC South is competitive, but you could pick out at least five of the seven teams to make the post-season with some confidence.

My early look had a few more surprises in the AFC side of the PlayOffs- the Buffalo Bills miss out if the season plays out as predicted, while the Miami Dolphins do go on and win the AFC East.

Three of the AFC North teams find a way into the post-season, including the Cleveland Browns without Deshaun Watson, while the Houston Texans win the AFC South. CJ Stroud is playing at an extremely high level and the Texans have yet to host the Jacksonville Jaguars in what could be a Division decider, although I also expect the Jaguars to make the post-season.

Guessing the post-season picture ahead of Week 12 is always going to be hazardous, but there does feel like some surprises and upsets could be seen between now and the end of Week 18 and that is what makes it exciting for fans.

After another week of action, the top five in my standings are as follows:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (9-1): wins over two of the top AFC teams and the Dallas Cowboys and with a big game coming up against the Buffalo Bills keeps the Eagles at top spot.

2) Detroit Lions (8-2): they did not produce their best in Week 11, but the Lions won and look healthy.

3) San Francisco 49ers (7-3): a strong couple of wins have gotten San Francisco back on track and their main rivals in the NFC West might have lost their starting Quarter Back.

4) Baltimore Ravens (8-3): it is hard to know where the Ravens are considering they ended up crushing a Cincinnati team that played the second half without Joe Burrow, but Baltimore deserve credit for bouncing back in a big win.

5) Kansas City Chiefs (7-3): there is no doubt that it feels harsh dropping Kansas City several places after a loss to the Eagles, but they looked out of sync Offensively. The Chiefs will need to find their identity on this side of the ball if they are going to repeat as Champions, while finishing with the Number 1 Seed has to be the goal to try and make life that much easier.

There are some quality teams that are just outside of these places, but they will need to get through some tough challenges to enter the top five places.

The Dolphins need to beat a 'good' team, while the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans also have something to prove.

Dallas look strong, but again need to prove themselves in a big game, while the likes of Cleveland and Seattle could be down starting Quarter Backs and that does/will hold them back.

The NFL Week 12 schedule is split over four days with games to be played on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday.

Picks will be placed in this thread over the next couple of days with the momentum from Week 11 something we can look to build upon.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: It has been seven years since the Detroit Lions (8-2) last won a game on Thanksgiving Day, but they continue to open up the day of NFL Football.

In previous years, some have questioned whether the Lions deserve to hold onto a Thanksgiving Day Game, but that is not going to be the case in 2023 with the team only trailing the Philadelphia Eagles for the most wins in the NFC. They do have a healthy lead at the top of the NFC North, but the Lions will want to maintain some of their current momentum knowing that four of the next six games are going to be played on the road.

The Lions needed some late magic to overcome the Chicago Bears in Week 11 and there is a feeling that Detroit were perhaps looking past the team in the basement of their Division. Head Coach Dan Campbell and many of the players will know this game on Thursday gives them a big opportunity to impress a national audience and the Lions might have already been mentally checked in for this important outing.

It shows plenty of character that the Lions were still able to fight back and win that game in Week 11 and they are a similar priced favourite when Detroit host the Green Bay Packers (4-6) who have kept their slim hopes of earning a PlayOff spot alive after a win of their own on Sunday.

That came at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, and now Green Bay have to show they can take the show on the road having lost four in a row outside of Lambeau Field.

Jordan Love had a decent game against the Chargers, but this is expected to be much more challenging for the Quarter Back who threw 2 Interceptions in a home loss to the Detroit Lions earlier this season. The pressure may be on Love's shoulders with Aaron Jones picking up another injury on Sunday that is likely going to keep the Running Back from taking part.

The Quarter Back did have 246 passing yards and 1 Touchdown pass and 1 Touchdown run to his name in the home defeat to the Lions, but Jordan Love will know he needs to be much better if he is going to help his team pick up the upset.

He would be more comfortable with Aaron Jones behind him in the backfield, but either way it will be a big challenge for the Packers Offensive Line to establish the run. While the game is competitive, the feeling is that Green Bay will continue to pound the rock and look to shorten the game, while also keeping their Quarter Back in manageable down and distance.

However, it is not going to be an easy day for Jordan Love if he has to rely on his arm- while he has been playing a little better of late, Love will be under plenty of duress from the Detroit pass rush, while the Lions Secondary has been playing the pass effectively and may be able to tempt Jordan Love into a mistake or two, much as they did in the road win.

The game plan on the other side of the ball should be pretty simple for the Detroit Lions who have gotten a significant punch from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. It was Montgomery who pounded the Packers into oblivion earlier this season and he had a solid return game against the Chicago Bears in Week 11, while Gibbs has the ability to break out a big play every time he touches the ball.

With the Packers Defensive Line struggling to stop the run, Detroit should be able to rip off some big plays on the ground and they can keep the Offensive unit in very strong field position. Jared Goff had 210 passing yards in the road win over the Packers and he may not be asked to do much in this one aside from making sure the team is lined up and able to set up those big run plays.

Jared Goff is facing a Green Bay Secondary that has not given up a lot of passing yards in recent games, but that is also down to the fact that teams have been able to run the ball very well against them. It also should be noted the level of Quarter Back and overall Offensive units they have played in their last few games and Detroit are going to be significantly more challenging than the Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers.

The Lions have a lot more balance than those teams and that is going to create fits for the Green Bay Packers as Detroit chase a first win on Thanksgiving since 2016.

They failed to cover as a home favourite on Sunday, but we had the Chicago Bears with the points that day and the feeling is that the Lions will be a lot more focused from the off against the Green Bay Packers.

Jordan Love may have an opportunity for a backdoor cover, but the expectation is that the Lions can clamp down on the run and force the inexperienced Quarter Back to make the mistakes that gives the home team extra possessions. With the Offensive unit particularly effective at home, the Lions should be able to put up enough points to clear this spread and move right alongside the Philadelphia Eagles with nine wins, the joint-most in the NFL this season.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The rumours are gathering pace that this could be the last game that Ron Rivera is the Head Coach of the Washington Commanders (4-7). Losing twice to the New York Giants is simply not going to make management change their mind, while Rivera has to know the writing is on the wall after the Commanders traded away two key pass rushers and knowing that the Head Coach was not selected by the current ownership team.

If it wasn't for the short week with the Commanders set to play on Thanksgiving Day, the feeling is that Ron Rivera might have been fired this week. Instead, he is given one last chance to be given an opportunity to at least play out the season, while a loss for Washington may mean Ron Rivera has plenty of time to spend with his family on Thanksgiving weekend and beyond.

They are huge underdogs when visiting the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) who are still chasing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

Playing a Divisional rival does make things tougher for any team, but the Cowboys have been crushing 'weak' opposition all season- they have beaten the Giants (twice), Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Rams and Panthers this season and only one of those wins has been by less than a 20 point margin.

As written above, Dallas have been crushing weak opponents and this is another for them on Thanksgiving.

Playing on this day has not usually resulted in big wins for the Cowboys, and they have lost plenty of Thanksgiving Day games in recent years, but this Washington Commanders team looks tailor made for a Dallas team that has played four home games this season and won by margins of 20, 35, 23 and 32 points.

They are being asked to cover a big spread, but Dak Prescott and the Cowboys Offensive unit should be able to score a lot of points in this one after seeing Tommy DeVito carve up the Commanders Secondary in Week 11 (that is Tommy DeVito the New York Giants Quarter Back, although Tommy DeVito, the infamous Goodfellas film character would have likely done the same).

Montez Sweat and Chase Young are gone so it is expected that Dak Prescott will have a relatively clean pocket to make his plays down the field, while the Cowboys are also likely going to be able to rip off some big gains on the ground. It should be a relatively 'easy' day in the office for Prescott operating from third and manageable whenever Dallas have the ball, while the play-action should see him have opportunities to make some big throws down the field and the Cowboys have every chance of getting close to the 40 point mark they are averaging at home.

The Dallas Defensive unit will certainly believe they can contribute and they have played much better at home than on the road.

In Week 11, the Cowboys gave Bryce Young all he could handle and they are likely going to put immense pressure on second year Quarter Back Sam Howell in this one.

Sam Howell is not helped playing behind a revolving door of an Offensive Line and continues to be hit hard whenever he takes a snap and looks to pass the ball. The key for the Commanders will be to try and keep this game competitive and continue to feed Bijan Robinson has much as they can, either running the ball directly or as a pass-catching Running Back coming out of the backfield.

Getting the ball into Robinson's hands as quickly as possible might see the Commanders stay in front of the chains, but any time they are in obvious passing situations, the Cowboys pass rush is going to be wreaking havoc in the backfield. Sam Howell may not have the worst passing numbers and there are some quality Receivers who can step up for him, but it is tough to continue to make plays with defenders hanging onto you, while the Cowboys Secondary are also playing at a pretty good level right now.

The pass rush has certainly made it easier for the Secondary and the Cowboys may be able to force a couple of turnovers that helps them pull away and cover what is a very big line for any NFL game, let alone a Divisional game.

Dallas are 14-6 against the spread as a home favourite under Mike McCarthy, while you have to question how much the Commanders team have left to give a Head Coach that is a lame duck to say the least.

However, you have to respect the fact that the Commanders could easily secure a backdoor cover in this game with the spread as big as it is. They are also 5-0 against the spread as the road underdog this season and have a couple of 3 point losses at Philadelphia and Seattle.

Divisional games usually are plenty motivating on their own, regardless of a season situation, but the Cowboys might be able to come out and make a big statement against a team that is perhaps lacking some direction. If the Commanders do feel that their Head Coach could be out of the door on Friday, they might check out of this one and the Dallas Defensive unit can make a couple of big plays that helps the home team secure a big victory.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Three losses in a row would worry some teams, but others will go out and make a big trade to bring a player like Chase Young. This comes twelve months after the San Francisco 49ers (7-3) traded for Christian McCaffrey and the team are firmly back on track after winning back to back games.

Over the next three weeks, the 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks (6-4) twice and the NFC West Division race will look much clearer by the end of those.

Bringing in Chase Young is clearly going to have a positive impact on the 49ers team, but the reality is that their three game losing run was largely down to injuries that the team had been dealing with. They went into a Bye, got healthier, and San Francisco have looked like a team that could win the Super Bowl once again.

There would also have been very little panic in the San Francisco locker room considering the team have reached the Super Bowl in 2019 and the NFC Championship Game in 2021 and 2022. That will be the minimum aim for Kyle Shanahan and his team again, while the 49ers may feel they deserve to have much better health going into January after their NFC Championship Game defeat in January 2023.

The 49ers look healthier than the Seattle Seahawks who could be without Geno Smith at Quarter Back and Kenneth Walker III at Running Back in a short week. Pete Carroll is still talking up the chances of Smith playing this game, but it feels like a long shot when you think of the injury he picked up on Sunday, one that meant he missed much of the second half before returning for one last drive as Smith tried to guide the Seahawks to an important win.

A missed Field Goal meant it was not worth the effort and Geno Smith is going to banged up at the very least.

Playing this pass rush is far from ideal for the Quarter Back and even if Smith starts, it has to be considered short odds that he will not be able to finish.

Drew Lock playing against this Defensive unit could be a bloodbath.

The Seahawks may look to run the ball and see if that can ease the expected pressure all around Geno Smith, but the Offensive Line have not been opening big holes of late and the 49ers may not respect the Quarter Back's ability to throw the ball at his usual level. That could see them load the line of scrimmage and force Seattle to try and keep the chains moving through the air.

Again, if Geno Smith was healthy, he might have a chance, but either Smith at less than 100% or Drew Lock throwing feels like a recipe for disaster.

If this game was played earlier in the season, some may have felt that the Seahawks Defensive unit could at least keep them in the contest, but that has looked less likely in recent games. There was always a feeling that the Seahawks were playing at an unsustainable level and San Francisco have the players that can expose the holes at all levels.

Christian McCaffrey and the Offensive Line should have a big day and they should be able to move the ball very efficiently on the ground. In the last three games, the Seattle Defensive Line have allowed teams to move the ball at 5.5 yards per carry so being able to clamp down on McCaffrey looks to be wishful thinking, while the Running Back is also expected to be a threat coming out of the backfield and making some plays in the passing game too.

Things are also looking up for Brock Purdy, even if there is still some feeling that he is a product of the Kyle Shanahan system. The Quarter Back won't care what people think and Purdy had a very good outing in Week 11 and the expectation is that he can pick up from where he left off.

Recent games has seen the Seattle pass rush lose some of its effectiveness and it will be tough to get to a Quarter Back who is likely going to be operating in front of the chains and who is willing to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.

Brock Purdy should also be able to exploit play-action to hit the likes of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle down the field and the expectation is that the 49ers can score enough points to clear this spread.

It would have been perfect if the line had dipped below a key number 7, but that looks unlikely now even if Geno Smith is cleared to suit up.

Any other decision and it is expected to perhaps rival the line the Cowboys are being asked to cover earlier in the day and so it might be worth locking in.

Seattle did have a decent record against San Francisco with five wins in six games played between November 2019 and December 2021, but the 49ers have won three in a row since then. All of those wins have been by at least eight point margins and there is every chance that San Francisco can extend that run in the late Thanksgiving Day game

You do have to respect the fact that the Seahawks are 3-1 against the spread as the home underdog since the beginning of last season, but Geno Smith's health is a massive concern for this one and the 49ers can pull away.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: When Amazon decided to offer the NFL.a huge amount of money so they could have the chance to broadcast a 'Black Friday' game, they had to be pretty happy with the game that was offered to them.

Both the broadcaster and NFL schedule makers would have anticipated this to be a leading AFC East Divisional clash, but instead of Aaron Rodgers, they will have Tim Boyle leading the New York Jets (4-6).

And instead of being a clash between two of the leading AFC East teams, Amazon will be featuring a Jets team that is barely clinging on to relevancy this season after losing three games in a row. Things had to change and the Zach Wilson era in New York looks to be officially over with the former First Round Draft Pick now the Number 3 Quarter Back on the depth chart behind Boyle and a recently signed Trevor Siemian.

Jets fans will be critical of the management for allowing this tough Defensive unit to be wasted by horrible play from the Quarter Back and the decision to not bring in another veteran after Rodgers went down with a season-ending injury looks to have backfired badly. Perhaps Tim Boyle is the answer, but his history in the NFL suggests not and he is going to have a tough day against the Miami Dolphins (7-3).

It was not the best performance from the Dolphins out of their Bye Week, but they did beat the Las Vegas Raiders and errors might have been down to the fact they were focusing on this Friday game. The Offensive unit made the mistakes, but Jalen Ramsey and the Defensive players more than did their part to beat the Raiders and are expected to shut down whatever kind of Offense the Jets try running with Boyle at Quarter Back.

The expectation will be that Tim Boyle has to lean on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook and try to establish the run, but that will not be easy against this Miami Defensive Line. Instead, much like Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle may need to get the ball quickly into the hands of Hall out in space and hope the Running Back can pick up some big yards after the catch and make that some form of running game for the team.

Asking Tim Boyle to throw against this healthier Miami Secondary seems too much, especially with the Jets Offensive Line banged up. It should give the Dolphins a chance to pin back their ears and really get after Boyle whenever the Jets are in obvious passing situations and any mistake from the Quarter Back is likely going to be punished in more New York turnovers.

Neutrals tuning in should get plenty more consistency out of the Miami Offensive unit, although it will be a test for Tua Tagovailoa considering this is where the strength of the Jets lies. Some may see the 32 points next to Buffalo's name and think the Defensive unit are not up to much, but it is asking too much for any Defense to be out on the field over and over and trying to protect short fields.

The Dolphins might be able to have some joy pushing the ball on the ground, but Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game needs to be cleaner than it was in Week 11. They are still putting up good numbers and the Offensive Line is giving their Quarter Back some time, but Tua will know that this New York Secondary is not one to take too many risks against as he looks to bring Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill into the action.

Play-action and moving pieces on the Offensive side of the ball can make life tough for a Defensive unit to slow down, and Miami are expected to have enough success on this side of the ball to be in a position to cover this spread.

Ultimately, the feeling is that Tim Boyle will make similar mistakes to Zach Wilson and end up putting the Jets Defensive unit in a bind.

It becomes a vicious circle with Boyle then likely to be asked to make more throws to try and keep the Jets in the game, which will lead to more mistakes and the Miami Dolphins can win and cover as long as they are not as generous with their own errors as they were in the victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.

A backdoor cover could be in play, but another big Defensive stand from the Dolphins can see them get over the line with a big road win against this Divisional rival.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The loss to the Cleveland Browns and a backup Quarter Back meant big changes this past week. Matt Canada has long been criticised as Offensive Co-Ordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) and was fired after the 13-10 loss to the Browns, as Mike Tomlin looks to find an answer to what has been a season-long problem.

Despite being Offensively challenged, the Steelers may still feel they are strong enough to earn a spot in the AFC Wild Card, although chasing down the Baltimore Ravens cannot be ruled out.

Back to back road games is not ideal for any team in the NFL and it is even tougher when you have to face Divisional rivals in both. That is the test for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they prepare to face the Cincinnati Bengals (5-5), a team who have had a bit of extra time to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 of the season.

They were beaten by the Baltimore Ravens in that game, but worse for the Bengals is the loss of Joe Burrow at Quarter Back. Not many have great expectations for Cincinnati with Jake Browning's inexperience taking over for Burrow, a Quarter Back who has won a National Championship at College level and played in the Super Bowl in the pros.

Unsurprisingly there are plenty of confident statements being made about Browning's preparation for his first start in the NFL, but this is a good Steelers Defensive unit in front of the young Quarter Back. The Bengals are also going to be without Tee Higgins this week, while Ja'Marr Chase is not at full health and that makes it difficult to believe in the Bengals.

Joe Mixon is going to be important for the Bengals, but running the ball against the Pittsburgh Defensive Line will be more difficult than usual if they do not respect the ability of Jake Browning behind Center. A few throws may open things up on the ground, but even at full health, the Bengals may not have been able to grind the ball on the ground.

This all means it will be up to Browning to show that he is capable of leading the team in place of Joe Burrow. Any doubt in his play is going to mean Jake Browning is dealing with the Pittsburgh pass rush behind shaky Bengals Offensive Line play, while the injury-hit Steelers Secondary can make enough plays to stall drives.

A big question will be on the other side of the ball and trying to work out if the firing of Matt Canada will spark the Steelers.

The game plan should be pretty easy for the Steelers- with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, they will look to establish the run against the Bengals Defensive Line which has allowed recent opponents to average 5.1 yards per carry. These two players have been combining for some big yards on the ground in recent games, although the Steelers fans are hoping to see better from Kenny Pickett at Quarter Back.

Kenny Pickett should be well protected, while the expected ground gains should mean play-action can be employed early as the Steelers look to attack this Cincinnati Secondary. George Pickens may not be available, but the Pittsburgh Steelers may choose to try and expose some of the Defensive holes that Cincinnati have displayed, while Pickett can also try and get the ball to Warren in space and hope the Running Back can make some big yards after the catch.

There should be a balance to the Steelers Offensive play compared to what we have seen in recent weeks as the players look to show that it was Matt Canada's calls, rather than their own execution of those plays, that have held them back.

Pittsburgh won here last year, in Overtime, and they do have a chance to bounce back from the disappointing Week 11 defeat to the Cleveland Browns. The Defensive unit may make one or two plays against the inexperienced Quarter Back that helps set up the Steelers with strong opportunities to score points in short field situations.

Backing the Steelers as a road favourite does not feel that good, but the uncertainty around the Cincinnati Bengals does make Pittsburgh the play.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: A third loss in the 2023 season is not going to derail the plans of the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3), but Head Coach Andy Reid and his Staff will know they have things to work on. They won the Super Bowl last season thanks to a very strong Offensive unit, but Patrick Mahomes has not been getting the same level of support from those around him and that proved costly in the home defeat on Monday Night Football to the Philadelphia Eagles.

This not the time for panic with a number of miscues that the Chiefs made easy to turn around, but they will want to put things right pretty quickly. They have been very strong Defensively and it is that side of the ball that will feel largely responsible for the eight wins produced, so it won't take a lot to really get the Kansas City Chiefs motoring again.

They are on a short week having played on Monday and with this Divisional game set for Sunday, while the Las Vegas Raiders (5-6) have looked better under interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce since firing Josh McDaniels. Both home games played under Pierce have resulted in wins, while Aidan O'Connell was picked off in the End Zone in the 7 point loss to the Miami Dolphins last week.

However, Antonio Pierce will know his team will need to be a lot stronger than they were in that loss to Miami- the scoreboard might not show it, but the Dolphins dominated that day and it was only a number of turnovers that prevented Miami from winning by a margin much more in line with the expectations of the oddsmakers.

This Divisional game poses a significant challenge for the Raiders Offensively and they do not match up that well with the Kansas City Chiefs. You have to imagine they are going to try and feed Josh Jacobs as much as possible and the Running Back may pick up some yards on the ground, but Las Vegas cannot afford to fall a couple of scores behind and then need their inexperienced Quarter Back to try and make plays against this tough Chiefs Secondary.

A fierce pass rush makes Kansas City very tough to throw against and Aidan O'Connell may have a banged up Davante Adams in the line up too. It will mean needing to get others going, but it should be pointed out that the Raiders have scored just 29 points in their last couple of games against Defenses playing to a similar level to where the Kansas City Chiefs are.

Las Vegas will be going into their Bye Week after this game so can leave it all on the field, but the feeling is that they are going to need another big turnover day to keep this one competitive.

The Dolphins made mistakes and there is a cleaning up process taking place at Kansas City, but the Chiefs will believe they have the capabilities of moving the ball up and down the field. They do need a Receiver or two to step up alongside Travis Kelce and give Patrick Mahomes a consistent player to throw to, but that should be 'easier' to manage with Isiah Pacheco likely going to pick up from where he left off against the Eagles.

Andy Reid is not someone who loves to run the ball over and over, but Pacheco should be able to pick up some big gains on the ground and keep the Kansas City Chiefs in front of the chains. That should be key in helping Patrick Mahomes earn a little more time behind the Offensive Line, especially with the Quarter Back comfortable being able to move around and allow Receiving routes to develop down the field.

He has not been at his best of late, but Mahomes has had his numbers dip because of the inconsistent play of his Receivers. That does raise some doubts about the Chiefs covering a spread like this one, but the feeling is that the defeat on Monday Night Football focuses minds and a much better game is played all around, especially on the Offensive side of the ball.

Losing has not been a familiar feeling for the Chiefs in recent years and over the last two seasons they are 4-1 against the spread when playing after a defeat. They are also 2-1 against the spread against AFC West rivals and the question mark about how many points the Raiders can put on the scoreboard certainly gives the road team enough of an edge to be backed in this one.

Hopefully the Receivers have removed the teflon from the gloves this week as they will need much stronger hands to ensure the backdoor cover is not possible for the home team.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: The AFC looks a loaded and deep Conference in 2023 and earning a Wild Card spot is going to be a challenge. The feeling is that ten wins will likely be needed to do that and that means the Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) are beginning to feel the pressure after consecutive losses.

They earn a primetime spot in Week 12 of the 2023 season and Head Coach Brandon Staley is going to be hoping for a big reaction from his players after showing his frustration to the gathered reporters following the defeat to the Green Bay Packers.

It feels like it gets much tougher for the Chargers in Week 12 as they prepare to host the Baltimore Ravens (8-3) who will be hoping this game offers them a chance to extend their lead in the AFC North before entering their Bye Week.

A big win over the Cinncinati Bengals on Thursday Night Football does mean the Ravens have had a few extra days of preparation time for this road game. That will help as the Offensive unit looks to find a way to replace Mark Andrews after the Tight End picked up a season ending injury in that win.

It takes away a big target from Lamar Jackson, who is also going to be looking forward to the Bye Week so he can rest up. The Quarter Back is not going to be sitting out this week and a late Bye can be beneficial with many believing the Ravens to be a genuine Super Bowl contender.

Lamar Jackson helps the Ravens run game with the threat he poses and big gains could be ripped off by Baltimore against this banged up Chargers Defensive Line which is allowing recent teams to pick up yards at 4.6 per carry. If they are not able to slop down Jackson, Gus Edwards and Keaton Michell, it is going to be a very long day for the Los Angeles Chargers on this side of the ball.

Slowing down the Ravens is going to be tough and that should mean Lamar Jackson is able to make a few big plays down the field, even without Andrews in the line up.

Isaiah Likely has flashed potential and will be getting a lot more targets, while it will be music to the ears of Lamar Jackson that the Chargers will be without Joey Bosa. Playing out of third and manageable should also mean Jackson has that touch more time to hit his Receivers against this Los Angeles Secondary which has allowed plenty of yards through the air.

An expectation of seeing a balanced Offensive unit makes the Ravens dangerous, while their Defense continues to play hard through the injuries.

While there have been some holes on the Baltimore Defensive Line that has seen teams pick up some big gains on the ground, the Los Angeles Offensive Line have been inconsistent. Recent games have been stronger as they look to get Austin Ekeler going as a runner, rather than a pass-catching Running Back, and it is key for the Chargers to have success establishing the run.

Moving the ball through Justin Herbert's arm and the banged up Receiving corps he is throwing too will be very difficult considering the level the Ravens Secondary have been operating at. Marlon Humphrey could be back for the Ravens with the extra time he has had between Week 11 and Week 12, while the Chargers have been inconsistent throwing the ball as the likes of Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have moved onto the Injured Reserve, while Keenan Allen is fighting through the pain.

An inability to establish the run or being forced into obvious passing situations will mean Justin Herbert has to face a powerful Baltimore pass rush and it looks like a game that the Ravens should be able to dictate on both sides of the ball.

While the Ravens have not exactly been great road favourites to back, it should be noted that the Los Angeles Chargers have a losing record against the spread as the home underdog with Brandon Staley at the helm. There is a growing feeling that Staley is about to be fired as the Head Coach of the Chargers too and that can see players just drop their heads, while it is far from ideal to be distracted before facing this strong looking Baltimore team.

Covering on the road will not be easy, but Baltimore can be asked to lay the points over Thanksgiving Weekend where the road favourites have been good through Thursday and Friday.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys - 12.5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)