The poor start to the week was always going to be very difficult to overcome, but it perhaps should have been a stronger end to the latest set of tournaments than we have had.
Some of the losses have been in matches where the selections have dominated the Break Point count, but found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and those have been the Picks that have made it very tough to get back on track following the poor Tuesday opening to the week.
On Sunday we are going to have the Finals played at the tournaments that have been running this week and there are some decent matches set to take place.
A big clay court event is coming up in Hamburg next week, but there are also stops in Umag and Atlanta to come as the run towards the US Open begins in the United States.
Late finishes in the WTA events in Budapest and Palermo means those markets have not been created at the time of writing and any selections will be added to this thread on Sunday, at least a couple of hours before those Finals are scheduled to be played.
Pedro Cachin - 1.5 games v Albert Ramos: All of the veteran players on the Tour that have won titles like Albert Ramos have to be respected and even at this stage of their careers they can put in a surge in one week to take home another trophy.
Albert Ramos has won a title on the clay courts in 2019, 2021 and 2022 and the victory four years ago was right here in Gstaad... That will give him confident at the end of a strong week where Ramos has shown his battling qualities by winning a deciding set three times in four victories.
It does mean he has played a lot of tennis compared with Pedro Cachin who has won all of his matches in straight sets and spent considerably less time on the court compared with the Spaniard.
Add in the fact that Pedro Cachin looks to be an improving player on the Tour who has produced solid, if unspectacular clay court numbers all season. His serve has been an important weapon in the Gstaad conditions, while Albert Ramos has had to return well to make up for the fact that his own serve has been a touch vulnerable.
A first ATP Final is going to mean nerves for Pedro Cachin, but his tennis should be good enough to win this match against Albert Ramos. Outside of the Second Round win over Roberto Bautista Agut, Pedro Cachin has broken at least four times in all three other wins in Gstaad, while Cachin has only dropped serve four times all week.
The expectation is that Albert Ramos will test him with the way he has been returning this week, although the lefty is likely to feel the pressure from the returning that Pedro Cachin has also been able to produce.
Controlling nerves is never easy in a first Final at this level, but Pedro Cachin can earn the majority of the Break Points and that can help him win this and cover this mark.
Casper Ruud - 1.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The top two Seeds in Bastad have made it through to the Final on Sunday and this has become familiar for fans of Casper Ruud.
After Wimbledon, Ruud has taken advantage of his clay court quality to win a number of European events on the red dirt in the last couple of years and he is a narrow favourite in the Bastad Final. That may be down to his clay court expertise, but also the fact he had a much more straight-forward win in the Semi Final compared with Andrey Rublev who needed three sets to beat Francisco Cerundolo in a tough encounter.
It took considerably longer than Ruud's Semi Final win, and Andrey Rublev had to win the second Semi Final which means less time to prepare for the Final.
He did win the first four matches against Casper Ruud on the Tour, but three of those were when Andrey Rublev was Ranked considerably higher than the Norwegian. However, all three clay court matches between the pair were won in those four matches and Andrey Rublev will certainly have some confidence behind him knowing that is the case.
On the other hand, Casper Ruud will be feeling pretty good that he has won their last two Tour matches on the hard courts of the Tour Finals. He has also reached the French Open Final twice since losing his last clay court match to Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud has been serving very well in Bastad this week, which could be key to the outcome of this Final.
As well as Rublev has been serving, he has not been as effective on the return in this tournament compared with Casper Ruud and the anticipation is for a competitive Final to have the narrow inches landing in favour of the top Seed.
Casper Ruud has only gone 2-2 against top 20 Ranked opponents this season on the clay courts, while Andrey Rublev has a solid 5-1 record in that same situation.
Three sets in this Final would not be a surprise and the sets should be competitive, but Casper Ruud can find a bit more energy to win the big points at key times to just earn yet another summer title on the red dirt.
Kateryna Baindl - 1.5 games v Maria Timofeeva: Just a few words on the Budapest Final with the markets now completed and a selection made.
It has been a remarkable week for the 19 year old who has entered the draw as the World Number 246 and a Lucky Loser, but Maria Timofeeva has been winning behind tight margins. She spent well over three hours on court in her Semi Final and has played a lot of tennis already this week, while Timofeeva has faced seven more Break Points than she has created in her last two matches.
Playing the big points well is clearly a good sign, but Maria Timofeeva has not shown a strong tendency to do that before Budapest and it feels like an outlier rather than a general rule when it comes to her tennis.
It is expected that the younger player will have chances in this match as Kateryna Baindl hsa not been serving at a really high level in this tournament. The Ukrainian had to win two matches on Saturday after her Quarter Final had been rained out the day before, but Baindl has been returning well this week and that should see her earn the majority of Break Points.
Of course that doesn't mean she will take them, but the play is backing Baindl to come through in three sets and do enough to cover this mark.
MY PICKS: Pedro Cachin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kateryna Baindl - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-15, - 6.02 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.75% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment