A quiet start to the week saw a couple of Picks split with a win and loss apiece, while Mirra Andreeva had a change in opponent.
That did not stop the young player from crushing Dayana Yastremska and Andreeva continues to look like a potential superstar in the making. Her serve will only improve as she gets older, while the return already makes her very dangerous and the overall tennis being produced is very impressive from a 16 year old.
A much busier day is in store on Tuesday when the majority of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played in the five tournament venues hosting tournaments.
My main focus early in the week is the joint ATP and WTA tournament being played in Hamburg, although there is also a selection from the ATP Umag event taking place on the clay courts.
Lorenzo Musetti - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: Any player coming through the Qualifiers has to be considered dangerous early on in a tournament, even for the top Seeds in the draw.
Lorenzo Musetti has to appreciate the fact that Elias Ymer has won two matches here in straight sets and he has clearly put the defeat to Leo Borg last week in Bastad behind him. Circumstances were not ideal with brother Mikael announcing he had been given an eighteen month suspension on the morning of the Elias Ymer match with Borg, but that was a painful loss all the same against someone Ymer should be beating.
He has looked strong in the Qualifiers, but Elias Ymer will know there is a considerable gap to bridge to the World Number 18 who lost a couple of places after his Semi Final defeat in Bastad last week. The Italian played well in his first two matches, but Musetti still has a tendency to leave players hanging around within matches, while has not always played his best tennis against opponents Ranked outside the top 100.
This season Lorenzo Musetti only holds a 3-4 record in those matches on the clay courts, which is a massive surprise and perhaps suggests he does not focus as he should do. Three of those four losses have been against players who were lowly Ranked earlier in the year, but who are well inside the top 100 now and Musetti was able to win two matches as expected last week before he fell to Casper Ruud in the Semi Final.
His return should be effective against the Elias Ymer serve, which has given up plenty of Break Points in the few matches he has had against top 100 Ranked opponents. The Swede does have a couple of wins on the clay courts in those matches, but was well beaten by Casper Ruud in the First Round of the French Open and Elias Ymer is expected to be put under pressure from the Musetti serve.
Elias Ymer can play well enough to create Break Points of his own, but this should be a match that is played on the Lorenzo Musetti racquet and the Italian can break down the Qualifier and pull away for a strong win.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 games v Pedro Cachin: In general, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has beaten opponents that he would have expected to on the clay courts this season, but he did suffer a disappointing exit in Bastad last week.
The defeat has dropped his mark to 7-2 on the clay against opponents Ranked outside the top 20, although the Spaniard has the chance to make up for that when playing in the First Round in Hamburg.
Overall it has been a tough twelve months for Davidovich Fokina who has lost more matches than he has won, despite some quality performances. Stretching the wins together has been an issue and the Spaniard is close to slipping out of the top 40 in the World Rankings so this is an important tournament for him after reaching the Quarter Final in Hamburg twelve months ago.
His return has not been an issue on the red dirt, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has not looked after his serve as well as he would have liked, although the numbers have been stronger when facing those outside of the elite on the Tour. Last week the serve kept Davidovich Fokina under pressure having to facing eight Break Points and he will need to be better when taking on a player who will be feeling really good after a very successful week.
Pedro Cachin is at a new career high World Ranking after winning the title in Gstaad on Sunday, the first ATP Tour title he has won his career.
He has played some solid tennis this season, but the emotion of Sunday could leave Pedro Cachin short both mentally and physically when he heads to the court just a couple of days later. The serve was a big weapon for him and Cachin was good for the Tennis Picks with wins in the Semi Final and Final, but it has to be noted that he has still to show more when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts.
Last week he beat Roberto Bautista Agut to move to 3-5 in those matches in 2023, but Pedro Cachin was perhaps a little fortunate to win that tight match. His numbers have been dented in those tougher matches, although I would certainly give him more of a chance in this one if Cachin had not just played a long week with an emotional outcome.
A strong start may see him push through, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is good enough to take advantage of any fatigue that may be in play and he can win and cover.
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Alex Molcan: For the third time this season, Alexander Zverev and Alex Molcan are meeting in a clay court match on the Tour.
Alexander Zverev won very comfortably in Paris at the French Open, but he was made to work much harder last week in Bastad and needed all three sets to be played before earning a passage into the Second Round.
Some of that was down to wastefulness on Break Points with Zverev winning just four out of fifteen attempts compared with Alex Molcan's three conversions from six chances. He created a lot of chances to break in Paris too, but Alexander Zverev was much more ruthless on that day, while he also looked after the second serve a lot more effectively too.
Allegations from his personal life cannot be helping Alexander Zverev, but he has played on the Tour with those hovering over this head before and it was not the reason he was outplayed by Andrey Rublev in Bastad. Being back in front of home supporters should at least give Zverev more motivation having reached the Semi Final the last time he played in Hamburg and this is a match where he is expected to have plenty more Break Points.
Alex Molcan is struggling for form, but might have taken some confidence in winning a set against Alexander Zverev last week. He would have hoped for a kinder draw in Hamburg than having to face Zverev again, especially as Molcan has lost three matches in a row on the clay courts and having had a difficult time behind his serve.
He has played the big points well enough to avoid dropping serve at times, but this leads to pressure on his overall tennis and Molcan has been having his struggles on the court.
Maybe he can serve well enough to save another eleven Break Points in this match, but Alexander Zverev should be motivated to have a strong week in Hamburg and he can win this one with the Breaks needed to cover.
Francisco Cerundolo - 2.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: Last year Francisco Cerundolo won the title in Bastad and reached the Semi Final in Hamburg in consecutive weeks on the clay courts, but his defence of the Bastad title ended in the Semi Final on Saturday.
The performance in the tournament was strong and Cerundolo was very unlucky to lose to Andrey Rublev, the eventual winner, so there is little doubt that this is going to be a confident player arriving in Hamburg.
He is facing one of the home players in the draw in Yannick Hanfmann, but Francisco Cerundolo holds three wins over this opponent on the clay courts since February 2022. One of those came in straight sets at the French Open a couple of months ago and Francisco Cerundolo does look like he will enjoy the match up that Hanfmann brings to him.
In their two matches this year, Francisco Cerundolo has created thirty-three Break Point chances compared with eighteen for Yannick Hanfmann. The favourite will want to win a high percentage of the first serves that go in, but Francisco Cerundolo also has to be confident he can win the rallies that develop from second serves and he can make it four in a row against this opponent.
Yannick Hanfmann has enjoyed a solid year on the clay courts which has helped drag his World Ranking back up to Number 45, which is a career high mark. However, his service numbers have declined significantly when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts this year and you have to believe that Francisco Cerundolo has the returning ability to keep the home player under pressure.
Nothing comes easy against Hanfmann, but Francisco Cerundolo has all of the tools in his tennis to keep his run of wins going against the German player.
MY PICKS: Lorenzo Musetti - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Francisco Cerundolo - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Pablo Varillas @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Federico Coria - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mayar Sherif - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diana Shnaider - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
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