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Tuesday, 4 July 2023

Wimbledon Tennis Day 2 Picks 2023 (July 4th)

The heat of June has been replaced with wetter and cooler conditions to open July in London and we saw the rain have an impact on the Day 1 schedule with a number of matches having to be carried over into Day 2.

Those making the schedule could be under some pressure by the end of Tuesday with another wet day expected, perhaps having even more rain than we saw on Monday. It looks a busy order of play already, but any significant break in play will mean First Round matches are likely going to have to be completed on Wednesday.

Some of the players in the draw will already have to play on back to back days if they are able to win on Tuesday with the Second Round scheduled to begin on Wednesday, but the organisers will be hoping much of the rain misses the grounds.

Those playing on the two main show courts will be able to play matches under a roof and so a potential fourth match could be scheduled for Centre Court and Court One if the earlier matches are completed in good time. Matches can be played late into the evening under the roof, and that could be important with up to five matches scheduled on some of the other courts around the grounds.


In the main Day 1 produced very little in terms of headline grabbing results, but the Coco Gauff defeat late in the day against Sofia Kenin was a genuine upset. I believed this was a good tournament for Coco Gauff to make another run towards a Grand Slam Final, but it was also good to see Sofia Kenin producing the kind of tennis that led to the Australian Open title in January 2020.

Most of the top names were able to move through to the Second Round without too much fuss and the attention will turn to the top half of the Gentlemen's draw and the bottom half of the Ladies draw on Day 2.

The defending Ladies Champion opens Centre Court and there are a host of big names playing throughout the day, which can only be a positive for the fans in attendance and those tuning in on the television.


It was a mixed start to the tournament for the Wimbledon Tennis Picks, but it would have felt much better if Petra Martic had a few more minutes to complete her win. Her opponent picked up a serious looking injury at the end of the second set, but Martic was around five points from a place in the Second Round before the retirement was confirmed.

A number of the selections from Monday will have to be completed on Tuesday and most of those are scheduled to go on second, so should have the time to get through between the showers.

Unlike other Grand Slams this season, there seem to be a few more early Picks that have fit into my criteria, and I will be looking for a strong end to the First Round even if some of these selections are not expected to play until Wednesday under the current forecast.


Andy Murray - 7.5 games v Ryan Peniston: The Quarter Final loss at Wimbledon to Sam Querrey as his body let him down in 2017 would have really hurt Andy Murray who had entered that tournament as the top Seed. Injuries and a potential retirement has meant it has been a long road back for Murray since that defeat six years ago and he did not play again at Wimbledon until 2021, and the former two time Champion has not been beyond the Third Round since that defeat to Querrey.

He is at the stage of his career where managing the health is more important than the World Ranking, but Andy Murray had been keen on earning a Seeding here. Ten straight grass court wins after choosing to miss the French Open had given Murray a chance of doing that, but an early loss at Queen's Club means entering Wimbledon as the World Number 40.

Being unseeded means having to potentially face Novak Djokovic in the First Round, but Andy Murray has been given a pretty kind section with a potential match against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Second Round. Andy Murray still insists that he is very capable of winning Wimbledon for a third time, and he is in the opposite half of the draw to the man he beat in the 2013 Wimbledon Final.

You have to believe that Andy Murray is pretty happy with the First Round draw against fellow British player Ryan Peniston who has had a couple of decent years on the grass, but who has struggled for consistency overall. He is now Ranked well outside the top 200 and the southpaw has a big gap to bridge if he is going to upset the odds in his debut on Centre Court.

Losses to the likes of Holger Rune and Jason Kubler are not very encouraging and Ryan Peniston will know he is going to have to have a very big serving day if he is going to beat Andy Murray.

The latter has put his wins together against weaker opponents Ranking-wise, but that should be the case in this First Round match. Andy Murray has really found an effective return on the grass this year and he has broken in 39% of return games played so he has to be expected to put Ryan Peniston under pressure once working through the rhythm of facing a left hander.

The Andy Murray serve can be a little hit and miss, but it has been an important weapon for him on the grass over the last month and he should be able to largely contain the Ryan Peniston threat. And while he will have some sympathy for his opponent as a compatriot, Andy Murray will not want to have to exert too much energy to get through this match and will be looking to go through the gears ahead of a potentially huge Second Round match in a couple of days time.

After being a long-time kingpin of British Tennis, Andy Murray has lost his last two matches to countrymen, but he should be able to exert much more authority in this one as he covers a big handicap mark.


Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: The first thing you have to accept is that this is a very big spread and it will need a largely clean performance from the favourite to cover it.

Much like a famous fellow Spaniard, Carlos Alcaraz does come off as someone who is not going to coast through matches and will try and battle for every point and it has seen him win every First Round match he has played at Grand Slams.

No one will doubt what Carlos Alcaraz is capable of achieving on the clay courts and hard courts, but it still feels like the grass is a work in progress for the young superstar. Winning at Queen's Club will have given Carlos Alcaraz a lot of belief, especially as the closest he has come to losing in the First Round of a Grand Slam has been at Wimbledon.

Carlos Alcaraz has only dropped sets in three First Round Grand Slam matches and two of those matches have been at Wimbledon. In fact, it should be noted that Alcaraz has needed five sets in each of his two previous appearances at this Grand Slam to work his way through the First Round and he will have to have a healthy respect for the ability of Jeremy Chardy on this surface.

Injuries have seen Jeremy Chardy's Ranking drop outside the top 500 and he will be playing on a Protected Ranking in this tournament- the reality is that the Frenchman could not have asked for too many tougher tests and Chardy is going to be under pressure to serve at an incredibly high level if he is going to remain competitive.

Jeremy Chardy is 1-4 against top 20 Ranked opponents in the First Round at Wimbledon, but you have to credit this player for taking at least one set in four of those matches. He was blown away by Novak Djokovic in 2011, but Chardy pushed former Finalists Andy Roddick and Tomas Berdych (twice) in First Round matches and so any unfocused performance from Carlos Alcaraz could see him struggle.

The Frenchman did win a match at the Australian Open after returning from an injury that had seen Chardy off the Tour since the US Open in 2021, but he was well beaten by Dan Evans in the Second Round. Jeremy Chardy has just struggled to keep the intensity up on the serve and this feels like it could be the case on Court One when he takes on Carlos Alcaraz on Day 2 at The Championships.

Once again it should be said that this is a big spread, but Carlos Alcaraz can make a pretty strong statement by wearing down Jeremy Chardy over the course of a couple of hours on the court.


Lorenzo Sonego - 1.5 sets v Matteo Berrettini: In 2019 Matteo Berrettini seemingly came out of nowhere to show he is a solid grass court player having won a title in Stuttgart and then reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon before losing to Roger Federer. Things got better in 2021 when the Italian was able to win the title at Queen's Club before reaching the Final at Wimbledon and falling a little short against Novak Djokovic.

After winning two more titles in Stuttgart and Queen's Club in 2022, Matteo Berrettini would have looking forward to going into another Wimbledon tournament, but was ruled out with Covid on the eve of the event starting.

Injuries have been a major issue for Matteo Berrettini over the last twelve months and he has played little tennis in 2023 as those have continued to hold back the World Number 38. Getting back to the kinds of levels he has shown previously is going to be a massive challenge for Matteo Berrettini and he was extremely upset after losing in the First Round in Stuttgart last month in the sole grass court tournament he has been able to enter.

That defeat came against compatriot Lorenzo Sonego and it is the same player that is facing Matteo Berrettini in the First Round at Wimbledon.

He might not have reached the kinds of levels that Berrettini has on the grass courts, but Lorenzo Sonego has shown he is more than capable of performing on the surface and has had some solid runs at Wimbledon before. Those have been ended by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, but Sonego is comfortable on the grass courts even if the last month has been a touch inconsistent.

Breaking his losing run to Matteo Berrettini will have given Lorenzo Sonego confidence, but he will also know he lost a very close match to Berrettini in Stuttgart last year. Those two previous encounters on the grass courts will give Lorenzo Sonego a lot of confidence and you have to wonder if Matteo Berrettini has enough in the tank to change the result from last month.

Lorenzo Sonego has found a way to create Break Points against Matteo Berrettini in both grass court meetings and the feeling is that he will frank the form of the win in Stuttgart by beating his fellow Italian in three or four sets as Berrettini continues to work his way back onto the Tour.


Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Gijs Brouwer: A five set loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime was the outcome of Alexander Zverev's last appearance at Wimbledon having missed 2021 with an injury.

That was suffered at the French Open thirteen months ago and Alexander Zverev has had some inconsistent results on his return. However, the run to the French Open Semi Final will have given Zverev a lot of confidence and he did work his way through to the Semi Final in Halle in preparation for the next Grand Slam of the season.

This now the only Grand Slam in which Alexander Zverev has failed to reach the Quarter Final, but he does have the tennis to be very successful on the grass courts. In a Wimbledon where there are not a deep crop of contenders on the surface, Alexander Zverev could be someone who can take advantage of being in the opposite side of the draw to Novak Djokovic.

He will need to return more efficiently to have a strong run at Wimbledon, while Alexander Zverev has to expect Gijs Brouwer to be prepared immediately having come through three Qualifiers.

The Dutchman is also a left hander, which can be awkward to deal with on a grass court, and Gijs Brouwer has strong serving numbers on the grass courts, even in the limited time he has spent on the surface.

Those wins in Qualifying will have given Brouwer confidence, but he had lost all three previous grass court matches in 2023 and he had been struggling in all aspects of his tennis. To make it worse, Gijs Brouwer has been losing matches to opponents Ranked outside of the top 69 and two of those defeats were to players that were not Ranked inside the top 100.

As long as Alexander Zverev comes out and serves well, he can build scoreboard pressure in this First Round match. The long levers of the World Number 21 should mean Alexander Zverev can begin to get enough balls back into court to increase the pressure on Brouwer and the German can cover this handicap line.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lorenzo Sonego - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ugo Humbert - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 9.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 7.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Christopher Eubanks - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maxime Cressy - 1.5 Sets @ 2.37 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Katie Boulter - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shelby Rogers + 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 6-5, + 0.20 Units (22 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

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