It has been another Grand Slam with a really tough second week for the Picks, but what can you do when you see players blow the opportunities that Jessica Pegula did in her Quarter Final.
She lost one more point than Marketa Vondrousova, but Pegula had a Break Point for a double break lead in the deciding set and then failed to win another game as she lost five in a row to blow a 4-1 lead. There really is nothing I can say about that match, but you shrug your shoulders and move on and it has proved to be the kind of match to sum up the way the last few days have gone.
Not for the first time I have been on the wrong end of an incredibly tight match, but even now I think there is a chance to get things turned around. You can be frustrated when nonsense like that and the way Alexander Zverev lost to Matteo Berrettini happens, but ripping up everything would be foolish when the reality is that the matches could not have gotten much closer to winning without doing so.
The Pegula loss is also strengthening the case I continue to make for the top three WTA players to dominate the sport- the World Number 4 has never made a Grand Slam Semi Final and that is simply not good enough when people are advocating for the WTA players to be put into prime time spots.
Things will change if the top three are putting a clear gap between themselves and the rest and then you would expect to see Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina in those big positions to showcase their talents. They have won the last five Grand Slams between them since Ashleigh Barty retired after the Australian Open win in 2022 and this can only be good news for fans of the women's game rather than the feeling that some fortunate winners have managed to win Grand Slam titles in recent years.
I'll be honest and say I am in a pretty fed up mood with the Tennis Picks this week.
Twice on Day 9 we have seen players blow strong positions, while game margins are the biggest irritation- it should not be possible to win more games when you have won fewer points in a match, but it seems like there has been a curse on the selections with that happening over and over across the last three days.
What can you do? Not a lot, but you have to believe those margins will eventually swing back if it keeps happening, although it may be too late for this tournament.
Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Holger Rune: The Big Three have dominated men's tennis for two decades, but Roger Federer has retired and Rafael Nadal has likely accepted he has one more full season on the Tour in 2024 as he recovers from injury. For now Novak Djokovic remains the man to beat when it comes to the Grand Slam titles, but fans have to be excited about seeing the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Holger Rune and Jannik Sinner begin to reach the business end of tournaments.
Out of the three of those players, Carlos Alcaraz is seen as the natural successor to the Big Three and he has already won a maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open last year.
However, the Spaniard has been very quick to point out the qualities that Sinner and Rune possess and it is an exciting time to see the young talents maturing at the rate they have been.
Carlos Alcaraz will go into the Quarter Final as the favourite, but it is Holger Rune who has won their sole match in full Tour settings (Alcaraz beat Rune in the Nxt Gen Finals which are played with shortened sets).
The win at Queen's Club will have give Carlos Alcaraz a lot of confidence in playing on the grass courts, but Holger Rune has put together plenty of wins on the surface too and the character shown in his last two wins will really put him in a good place. Holger Rune will have to continue to serve well if he is going to upset the odds, while the familiarity between the two players should ease the nerves either may feel when they head to the court.
Out of the two players, Carlos Alcaraz has definitely shown a bit more feel when it comes to the return of serve and this is expected to be a difference maker on the day. His fellow Spaniards, Roberto Carballas Baena and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, created twenty-seven Break Points against the Holger Rune serve in their matches against him in this tournament and managed to convert seven times.
Converting Break Points has been something of an issue for Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon, but he has created at least fourteen of those per match. The expectation is that Alcaraz will dominate the number of Break Points created within this Quarter Final and ultimately that is going to give him the edge in the match.
You have to like Holger Rune and the way he approaches his tennis- at one stage he was perhaps grating on the fans, but Rune seems to have gotten control of the more temperamental outbursts and he is expected to be a favourite in the years ahead. The performances on the grass courts in 2023 have to be respected, but Holger Rune was pretty well beaten by Alex De Minaur at Queen's Club and his return numbers have not been as impressive as his opponent's numbers in this Quarter Final.
Serving at his absolute best will keep this match competitive, but Holger Rune was a set and a break down against Grigor Dimitrov in the Fourth Round and Carlos Alcaraz is not expected to be as forgiving if he gets into that position.
Daniil Medvedev-Christoper Eubanks over 38.5 games: It was only last month that Christopher Eubanks felt grass was the 'stupidest surface' but winning a title in Mallorca has clearly given him some confidence.
Having been given advice by someone of the stature of Kim Clijsters, Christoper Eubanks has begun to fall in love with playing on the grass and the title win followed by his first ever Quarter Final place at a Grand Slam will be a huge boost to his career. The fans clearly have a lot of time for Christopher Eubanks too and he has been feeding off the energy from the stands as he has worked his way through the draw.
A win over the Wimbledon Semi Finalist of 2022 in Cameron Norrie shows Eubanks that he has the game to be successful on the grass, while his come from behind Fourth Round win over Stefanos Tsitsipas will underline the ability to beat the best players on the Tour. It was a match won on the tight margins against Tsitsipas, but Christoper Eubanks will have been given yet another boost as he prepares to face Daniil Medvedev in this Quarter Final.
His opponent has a lot more Grand Slam experience at this stage, but Daniil Medvedev is playing in his first Wimbledon Quarter Final as he has struggled with the consistency to play on the grass. There have been some big wins produced by the Russian and he has the levers and court coverage to make things very awkward for opponents, but this does have the makings of a match that Eubanks has to feel he can win.
Much is going to depend on how well Christopher Eubanks serves.
It has been a major weapon for him throughout his career, but the tactics in this match will also be important. We all know that Daniil Medvedev will stand extremely far back on the return, so Eubanks has to be thinking about getting into the net behind the big, booming serves and the American has been comfortable volleying over the last month.
If he can do that for long enough, Christoper Eubanks can cause Daniil Medvedev a lot of problems much like Marton Fucsovics did in the Third Round. The American has a bigger serve than Fucsovics so there is a blueprint that can lead to success, although Daniil Medvedev will be comfortable with his own tennis on the grass over the last month.
Daniil Medvedev serves big himself and he will know that Christoper Eubanks has a limited return game, which can be dominated. In the last Round, Eubanks only won 27% of return points played against Stefanos Tsitsipas and that means he has won 30% or fewer return points in three of the four matches won at Wimbledon.
Much will depend on the Medvedev mindset and how focused he can remain- it was Tsitsipas' undoing in the Fourth Round as he dropped a couple of silly games on his own serve when the match looked to be in control, but that is less likely to happen with Daniil Medvedev.
When they met at the Miami Masters, Daniil Medvedev was a comfortable straight sets winner in March, although the World Number 3 is much more comfortable on the hard courts compared with the grass courts. On that day Medvedev was able to break the Christoper Eubanks serve four times and there is a worry that all of the tennis that the latter has had to play in SW19 could catch up with him, especially if Medvedev can make enough returns of serve.
Sitting back and hoping for things to happen would be a mistake and it is hard to imagine those will be the tactics from Christopher Eubanks. Instead you have to believe he will look to be aggressive and that may be good enough to at least help push this match beyond the total games line set for the Quarter Final.
It would be expected that Daniil Medvedev will find a way to win the match, but he may drop just his second set at Wimbledon in 2023 and the two players can produce enough holds of serve to get this match over this line set.
Madison Keys-Aryna Sabalenka over 22.5 games: I genuinely feel like Madison Keys is one of the big underachievers on the WTA Tour and she is going to regret having not taken advantage of the gap that has been at the top of this side of the sport.
She reached a Quarter Final and two Semi Finals at the Grand Slam events in 2018, but has only made two Quarter Finals since then before her successful run at Wimbledon this year. Considering the game she has, it is an absolute surprise that Madison Keys is only playing in her second Quarter Final in SW19 having been defeated by Agnieszka Radwanska in 2015 and this the third time she has made the second week since that day.
Madison Keys has only won seven career titles, but one of those came in Eastbourne in the build to Wimbledon and she has played relatively well in this tournament. The come from behind win in the Fourth Round will have given the American a lot of confidence considering she has long been known as a strong front-runner, but perhaps not someone who can recover when things have begun to go against her.
The win in Eastbourne means three of her seven titles have been on the grass and Madison Keys has given Aryna Sabalenka plenty to think about in their two previous matches. In fact Keys won their only previous meeting on the grass, but she will be under pressure to serve well to keep the World Number 2 at bay.
Madison Keys has played at a consistent level in the tournament before dropping her standards in the Fourth Round win, but this is a big test against Aryna Sabalenka who has been in strong form all week. Even when Sabalenka has perhaps not felt at her best, she has been a solid winner in each of her four matches and the comfortable win over Ekaterina Alexandrova will make the Belarusian confident of seeing off this Quarter Final opponent.
Over the last couple of seasons, Aryna Sabalenka has become a consistent threat at the Grand Slam tournaments before breaking through at the Australian Open to win the title. She was a Semi Finalist at Wimbledon in 2021 before losing a tight match to Karolina Pliskova and it does feel like Aryna Sabalenka is playing at a level which will be tough to stop.
You would have to worry for Madison Keys if Aryna Sabalenka gets into a groove early- you will feel Keys' game pretty early in this match and it feels like the American is never that far from a capitulation.
However, if Madison Keys serves as she can, she has shown she can give Aryna Sabalenka plenty to think about even if the latter is much improved since these two last met two years ago in Berlin.
It does have the potential of being a big-serving match that may need three sets to decide the winner and we needed three sets when they met on the grass two years ago.
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 games v Ons Jabeur: The repeat of the Ladies Final from 2022 takes place in the Quarter Final in 2023 and there is every chance this is another match that may need three sets to decide the winner between Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur.
At the end of the Final Elena Rybakina looked a dominant winner, but the match was a close one and the eventual Champion had to save a lot of Break Points compared with Jabeur.
This suggests that it will not have taken a lot for the match to have swung the other way and the Quarter Final should be another close and competitive match.
Out of the two players, Elena Rybakina has been playing the stronger tennis at Wimbledon and looks to have ended any fears of her lingering illness from keeping her from her best. Her Fourth Round win was cut short, so Rybakina should be fully ready to go and her serve has been in monstrous form.
I expect Ons Jabeur to get a few more balls back into play compared with the other three opponents that Elena Rybakina has beaten in completed matches. Alize Cornet showed a player that can get the ball back and use a lot of solid defence and unconventional tennis could cause problems for Rybakina and I expect Ons Jabeur to employ similar tactics with the hope that she can take one or two more Break Points compared with the Final twelve months ago.
However, I also think Ons Jabeur's win over Petra Kvitova may have people believing in her a little too much in this Quarter Final- she had been very fortunate to beat Bianca Andreescu in the Third Round and Kvitova effectively threw away the Fourth Round match more than Ons Jabeur winning it.
Poor form ahead of the Wimbledon tournament is not very encouraging and Elena Rybakina has looked to have gotten her eye in on the return a lot quicker at this year's event compared with last season. The defending Champion did not return as well as she would have liked in the Final, but I expect better from her in this Quarter Final and I do think the serve is a major advantage for Elena Rybakina who has only been beaten once at Wimbledon before.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power
Daniil Medvedev-Christopher Eubanks Over 38.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys-Aryna Sabalenka Over 22.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 53-51, - 8.22 Units (208 Units Staked, - 3.95% Yield)
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