It was shaping up to be a brutal Wednesday after a couple of matches swerved away from the winning line late on, but a couple of solid results from Umag avoided the complete disaster.
There remain some frustrations with some of the Picks that have come close to crossing the line with a win, but fallen short, although I do feel the selections are still being identified in a decent way.
Ultimately that feeling will only be the right one if the winners start to pile in and there is time to make sure this is a solid week for the selections.
The focus on Thursday will be solely on Hamburg where all three Tennis Picks are played.
Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: Finally getting one over on Francisco Cerundolo will have pleased Yannick Hanfmann, even if it came via a third set retirement, and the home player should be able to back that up against Zhizhen Zhang.
You would be foolish to completely dismiss the chances of Zhizhen Zhang only because we have seen Yannick Hanfmann throw in a poor match just last week in Gstaad, but the higher Ranked player has been the superior clay courter this season.
Zhizhen Zhang was beaten by the same opponent who eventually got the better of Yannick Hanfmann last week in Gstaad, but he has been good enough to take a set from Casper Ruud at the French Open and had a strong run in Madrid where he beat top 20 Ranked players Cameron Norrie and Taylor Fritz in consecutive Rounds. However, the majority of his clay court tennis over the last twelve months has been played against players Ranked outside the top 100 and that makes his overall numbers a little disappointing.
The serve has proven to be an effective weapon for Zhang and it will be important here, but he has not returned as well as Yannick Hanfmann who has broken in 29% of return games played on the clay this season. If you remove the nine clay court matches played against opponents inside the top 50, Hanfmann's break percentage improves slightly to 30% and he has served just as well as Zhizhen Zhang in the main.
The lower Ranked player has broken in 21% of return games played on this surface in 2023 and again it has to be noted that the majority of those have been against opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. In those six matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, Zhang's break percentage drops to 14% in games and this should mean Yannick Hanfmann has the edge in terms of chances to get to Break Point.
Numbers don't always tell the full story and Yannick Hanfmann has just produced a 'big' win which can be tough to back up. However, having the home support should help and produce a much better all around effort than the one he had in his loss last week, while the German has a 23-8 record on the clay when looking at results against opponents outside of the top 50 in the World Rankings.
He has won fourteen out of eighteen matches on the clay against players Ranked lower than him when they have played, and he would have covered this handicap margin in eleven of the thirteen best of three set matches Hanfmann has won.
Arantxa Rus - 2.5 games v Eva Lys: This has already been a strong week for Eva Lys who is pushing back towards her career high World Ranking after back to back wins in Hamburg.
In both matches she has beaten higher Ranked opponents and has opened up the draw by beating the Number 2 Seed in the draw, while the German home crowd will give Eva Lys another boost.
The run has been a surprise considering Lys had lost all four clay court matches played in 2023 prior to the start of the tournament in Hamburg. She has made use of her place in the main draw and Eva Lys has to be respected for not only winning her matches, but winning in the style she has been with dominant results.
You have to expect this to be a much sterner examination for the home player than she has had in the tournament so far when facing Arantxa Rus, although the World Number 60 has already had to spend over five hours on the court. Winning will help, but Rus would have preferred to have avoided having to win a deciding set in each of her two wins this week.
On paper this should be an 'easier' test, but Lys has some momentum behind her.
However, I have to like the fact that Arantxa Rus has a 30-5 record on the clay courts when facing players outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, and that record becomes 26-2 when only considering matches against opponents outside of the top 100. Only one loss has been against a player lower in the World Rankings than Rus when the match has been played and you have to believe her returning will be a key to the outcome of this Quarter Final.
Eva Lys will feel her own returning has been effective enough to create Break Points considering how she has played this week. She has been able to step up her own personal level when facing players Ranked higher than herself on the clay courts in her career, but Eva Lys may just find Arantxa Rus a little too battle hardened in this one.
Martina Trevisan - 4.5 games v Noma Noha Akugue: There are a couple of home players that have made it through to the Hamburg Quarter Final and both have surprised by managing to do that.
Out of the two, Noma Noha Akugue has certainly had a tougher time than Eva Lys, although you have to respect the character shown in coming back from 6-0, 5-4 down to win the match in three tough sets. The two and a half hours spent on the court should not be an issue for the young lefty, but Noha Akugue would have invested a lot of emotional energy into her Second Round win over Storm Hunter.
It will see her move into a new career high World Ranking come Monday morning, but Noma Noha Akugue is going to have to beat a tough clay courter in the Quarter Final when going up against Martina Trevisan.
The Italian is another lefty and her two wins this week have been impressive in what has otherwise been a mixed year on the clay courts. Martina Trevisan had been able to look after serve well enough this week and that has seen her dominate her two matches, although it is a vulnerable shot and makes it a little harder to trust Trevisan to cover big handicaps.
However, Martina Trevisan has been able to beat players she is expected to beat with her three losses against players Ranked below her being against Elina Svitolina, Karolina Muchova and in a retirement.
Breaks have to be expected in a match like this, but Martina Trevisan can put Noma Noha Akugue under pressure with her clay court nous and the German player could be a little flatter after a big win on Wednesday.
MY PICKS: Yannick Hanfmann - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arantxa Rus - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martina Trevisan - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 4.08 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.69% Yield)
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