Anyone who knows even a little about tennis will know there are times when the very small margins can make a big difference in the way the final scoreboard looks.
Unfortunately the third Grand Slam of the season has been a big disappointment for the Tennis Picks, but it really has been an event when those poor margins have been at play.
Day 10 seemed to be making the points when Madison Keys somehow blew her 4-2, 40/0 lead in the second set on serve and ultimately meant my overs selection went down in flames when looking on course to be a winning pick.
Backing that up was Carlos Alcaraz missing a cover by a single game despite the fact he won seventeen more points than Holger Rune having dominated the last two sets and not even making it through to that many Break Points from a number of 0/30, 15/30 positions on the return. He won by a five game margin despite the point difference usually meaning at least two more games on the scoreboard in the best of five setting.
To further the point, Matteo Berrettini beat Alexander Zverev by a five game margin on Saturday after winning three more points and of course I was on the wrong end of that selection too.
You have to be downbeat about a poor Grand Slam set of results, but making sweeping changes is not the plan when those results have literally been one or two points away from being in a much stronger position.
I've accepted this will not be the tournament where the results are as I would have liked, but a strong end to the event is still something I will be searching for before the grass court season comes to an end for all intents and purposes.
Elina Svitolina-Marketa Vondrousova over 5.5 match breaks: The top half of the Ladies draw at Wimbledon looked pretty open with a vulnerable looking World Number 1 and the two main rivals to win the title being placed in the other half. This looked to have given a number of the Seeds in this half a real opportunity in their bid to reach a Grand Slam Final, but, surprisingly, it is two unseeded players who have worked their way into the Semi Final.
More fans will be familiar with Elina Svitolina, but Marketa Vondrousova is the Semi Finalist who has previously played at a Grand Slam Final when reaching the French Open Final.
Injuries have been a problem for Marketa Vondrousova in recent years, but she looks well on the way back to the kind of level she was once producing. The 24 year old is a threat with a left handed serve, but there had not been a lot of form on the grass to believe Marketa Vondrousova was ready to make her big comeback at Wimbledon rather than on the other surfaces that are used on the Tour.
The margins have been tight in her last couple of wins over Marie Bouzkova and Jessica Pegula, especially in the Quarter Final against the latter. The Czech player had to save a Break Point which would have given Jessica Pegula a 5-1 lead in the deciding set, but Marketa Vondrousova managed to do that and that sparked a five game run to the winning line and another Grand Slam Semi Final.
Elina Svitolina has a lot more late Grand Slam experience as she prepares to play her third Slam Semi Final, but it is hard to ignore the fact she has yet to reach a major Final. The crowd are firmly behind Svitolina, who is representing Ukraine and who has only recently returned to the Tour after becoming a mother, and it has inspired Svitolina in two tough wins over Victoria Azarenka and Iga Swiatek.
She has had to spend a lot of time on the court in those wins, but Svitolina's level has been impressive and the day off between matches will have helped just in terms of preparation and recovery from the Quarter Final win.
The former World Number 3 has looked to be in stronger mental shape in this tournament having regularly collapsed in the biggest matches she has played at the Grand Slams previously. The serve has been an important weapon, and Svitolina is playing with an aggression that has been effective on the grass courts.
It will be important to stay on top of that against a strong return player like Marketa Vondrousova- she has needed that as the Vondrousova serve has not been as consistent with nine breaks in the last two matches.
Breaks of serve have been common for Marketa Vondrousova though and this has the makings of a tight, competitive battle that could potentially go all the way to a deciding set. There are likely to be swings in the momentum with both players capable of breaking serve and it feels like a match that may see a number of those.
Marketa Vondrousova has won the last two matches between the players in straight sets, but there were four and six breaks of serve in those out of fifteen and sixteen games played. Both ended in straight sets wins, but Elina Svitolina created plenty of Break Points too and she looks to be in better form on the return here at Wimbledon.
Both players have broken at least three times in each match won on their way to the Semi Final- there have been at least seven breaks of serve in the last four matches played by Elina Svitolina and Marketa Vondrousova combined at this tournament and this could be another match with a number of those going against serve.
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Ons Jabeur: Being in the same half of the draw as the defending Champion means this is the only match at the Wimbledon tournament that is officially scheduled to have players come out and play on consecutive days.
Talking about the defending Champion, Ons Jabeur was able to end the Elena Rybakina reign in the Quarter Final as she came from a set behind to earn a measure of revenge for losing the Final to the same player twelve months ago. Beating the World Number 3 will have given Ons Jabeur a huge boost, but she has to now face the World Number 2 and favourite to win the Wimbledon title on Saturday.
Playing three sets is not ideal in the Quarter Final, but it was not a taxing match for Ons Jabeur who was out on the court for a few minutes shy of two hours. Her serve proved to be a difference maker on the day as the World Number 6 broke late in the second set and was able to cruise through the third set in her win over Rybakina.
Ons Jabeur broke serve five times, although Elena Rybakina will have some regret about the chances that she missed in the middle of the second set to really take control. Ons Jabeur will be encouraged by the way she was able to make Rybakina play and her skills and rhythm breaking tennis is going to be crucial in this Semi Final as she looks to get the better of Aryna Sabalenka.
Two years ago Aryna Sabalenka lost a very close Semi Final at Wimbledon to Karolina Pliskova, but winning the Australian Open back in January has felt like the moment where her career can really take off. The disappointing French Open Semi Final defeat to Karolina Muchova, a match it looked like had been won deep into the third set, will bother Aryna Sabalenka and she still has to prove she can handle these occasions consistently, despite the title win in Melbourne.
Winning Wimbledon will be the main focus, but Aryna Sabalenka will finish the tournament as the new World Number 1 if she can make the Final and that will be a bit more pressure to deal with.
Reaching five Grand Slam Semi Finals in the last seven majors played shows the consistency that Aryna Sabalenka has taken onto the court, but there is a downside- beginning with the defeat at Wimbledon in 2021, Sabalenka has lost four of the previous five Semi Final matches at Grand Slams. She broke through at Melbourne and then won the title, but the loss to Muchova in Paris means all of those defeats have also been in third set deciders.
It has to be a worry when facing a battler like Ons Jabeur who reached the Final at Wimbledon and the US Open last year having previously never been beyond the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam. Wins over Petra Kvitova and Elena Rybakina, two former Wimbledon Champions, has to have given Ons Jabeur a lot of belief that she can go one step further and win a major title, but the lower Ranked player will be hoping the rain stays away and this does not become an indoor match, which would favour Sabalenka.
The favourite will have a slight mental advantage having won the last three matches against Ons Jabeur, although their meeting at the WTA Finals at the end of the 2022 season was a very close one. Prior to that, Aryna Sabalenka had produced dominant wins over Jabeur on a hard court and at Wimbledon in 2021, but the win at the WTA Finals might be the most important if this Semi Final gets into a nervy decider.
You have to expect Ons Jabeur to play the kind of tennis where she will want to neutralise the Aryna Sabalenka power and try and change the rhythms and tempo as much as possible. If she continues to serve as well as she has in her last two matches on the numbers, she will make it tough for Sablenka, but also has to expect this to be the toughest returner Ons Jabeur has faced at Wimbledon this year.
Aryna Sabalenka looks to have found a strong all around level in her tennis over the last couple of matches and the play is that she will do enough to beat this Semi Final opponent in two tough sets.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina-Marketa Vondrousova Over 5.5 Breaks @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 54-54, - 12.42 Units (216 Units Staked, - 5.75% Yield)
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