There is no doubting that it was a much more positive day for the Tennis Picks, but it feels like some meat was left on the table after a couple of late letdowns.
On another day Lorenzo Musetti would have been able to serve out his strong position in the final set, which would have been enough for the cover, while Zizou Bergs missed out by a couple of games after allowing himself to gift away the second set.
Worst was the Yulia Putintseva collapse in the second set against Claire Liu.
She was a set down after blowing an early break, but it is hard to understand what happened to Putintseva in the second set considering she had moved into a commanding 5-0 lead and with 15/40 on the Liu serve.
Somehow she lost the next six games in a row and missed FIVE Set Points in that run and even the late break of serve to force a Tie-Breaker only prolonged her pain with another two Set Points missed in that Breaker too.
So while there was a positive return on the day, it does feel like one or two of those other selections could have easily swung my way and it might have completely erased the really poor Tuesady.
Wimbledon might be over, but the sport was still making headlines this week, although both for negative reasons.
Controversy in Hungary on the court was the main source of conversation for the WTA players on social media, but the news of the latest allegation against Alexander Zverev is extremely disturbing. This could be a story that really explodes in the coming weeks, especially if the Penalty Order in Germany is given the go-ahead and with big tournaments coming up bringing with it more media attention.
The ATP whiffed on the previous allegations and how to deal with players who face such issues, but they will be under more pressure if this Penalty Order is signed.
After seeing a new star breakthrough earlier this month, this is a much more challenging time for the leaders on the Tour.
Alexander Zverev is expected to play his Second Round match in Bastad on Thursday, but it is a developing situation off the court and you have to believe it is going to have an impact on his performance on the court against a competent clay court player.
Personally I am steering clear having seen how personal matters can affect players and their performances, while there are a plenty of matches that look quite difficult to call around the tournaments being played.
Any selections from the Newport Quarter Final matches set for Thursday will be added to this thread when the markets are released, but the only two Picks on the day will both come from Second Round action in Bastad.
Casper Ruud - 5.5 games v Alexander Shevchenko: Two years ago Casper Ruud was able to run through three clay court tournaments in a row and win titles in all three events, but last season he was beaten in his opening match in Bastad as he looked to defend this title.
It didn't bother him for too long with Casper Ruud winning the next week in Gstaad, but the two time defending Champion in that tournament in Switzerland has chosen to play in Bastad instead this week.
There is still an opportunity for Casper Ruud to take in three straight summer clay court events, although the likelihood is he will play Hamburg and then move to North America to begin preparation for the US Open.
Motivation will still be there to have a good clay court season after another tough month on the grass and Casper Ruud looks to have been given an ideal opponent in this Second Round match.
Alexander Shevchenko has won a match here this week, so has to be respected, but the World Number 96 has had mixed clay court experiences. He does hold a 3-4 record on the surface against top 50 Ranked opponents this season, but Shevchenko has found himself well beaten by the likes of Alex De Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti.
Casper Ruud is arguably better than all of those on the red dirt having reached the French Open Final in consecutive years and he will certainly feel he can play the superior tennis of the two on the court. An opening clay court match is tough after moving from the grass, but Ruud is accustomed to doing that in recent years and he should be able to find himself in the return games against an opponent who has won 55% of his service points against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface.
There have been one or two disappointing losses suffered by Ruud on the clay in 2023, which is a concern, but in his four wins against players outside of the top 50, Ruud has covered this handicap mark three times in the best of three set environment.
The first set could be competitive, but you have to believe Casper Ruud can go through the gears to earn the double break in the second set to cover the spread being asked.
Sebastian Ofner - 1.5 games v Bernabe Zapata Miralles: It would be wise to throw out the results of the previous two matches between these players as they were played on hard and grass courts. Mentally there may be a slight advantage with Sebastian Ofner who has won both of those matches against Bernabe Zapata Miralles, although the last meeting was in 2021 and this is a match that will be played on a clay court.
Both have already had a strong month on the red dirt- while fans would have been concentrating on the second week at Wimbledon, these two players both reached the Final of a Challenger event played on the clay courts.
The difference between the two is that Ofner won the title and Zapata Miralles finished as Runner Up, but both have shown they are very competent on the surface.
Out of the two players, Sebastian Ofner will be credited with a stronger First Round win having beaten Tomas Martin Etcheverry from a set behind, although that does mean the Austrian had to spend around thirty minutes more on court compared with Bernabe Zapata Miralles.
After a long week on the Tour, this may make some of an impact, but it is not expected to be one that is decisive.
Sebastian Ofner has been able to get a few more cheap points out of the serve and that is where things can become easier for a player on the slower surface. If Ofner can serve well, he may be able to play with a little more freedom against the Zapata Miralles serve, one that is being held at 68% on the clay courts compared with Ofner's 77% mark.
You have to credit Bernabe Zapata Miralles for putting plenty of wins on the board on this surface and the Spaniard has been the superior return player of the two in this Second Round match. In saying that, it should be noted that his return numbers are much more similar to Sebastian Ofner's when you only consider matches against top 100 Ranked players and this is where the feeling is that the Austrian's bigger serve can prove to be the key factor in the outcome of the match.
A three setter cannot be ruled out with the way both have been playing, but Sebastian Ofner can find the breaks to win and cover this mark.
Jordan Thompson - 1.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: The grass court season may be a short one, but these two veterans of the Tour are meeting for the fifth time on the surface in this Newport Quarter Final.
Adrian Mannarino had the better of Jordan Thompson with three wins on the grass against him, but the Australian snapped that run with a win over Mannarino last month in Hertogenbosch. Jordan Thompson had to come from a set behind to earn that victory, but was the stronger player on the day and has had a very good month on the surface.
He gave Novak Djokovic something to think about at Wimbledon in the Second Round on Centre Court, while Thompson has dominated his two matches at this tournament. Confidence is clearly in a good place with Thompson finishing as Runner Up in one grass court tournament and reaching the Semi Final in another, while snapping the losing run to Adrian Mannarino has to give him further belief.
No one will underestimate Adrian Mannarino who is a confident grass court player and who won pretty well in his Second Round match. The Frenchman also finished Runner Up in one grass court event and made the Quarter Final in two others, although Adrian Mannarino's numbers have been tighter than Jordan Thompson's on this surface this season.
The overall performances from Jordan Thompson have felt stronger and his confident wins in Newport could see him earn back to back victories over Adrian Mannarino on the grass.
MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sebastian Ofner - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-9, - 5.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 16.50% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment