Once again I have fallen foul of a truly miserable day when seemingly anything that could conspire to go wrong would go wrong.
There is no doubt in my mind that Mikael Ymer's eighteen month suspension, which was announced before brother Elias entered the court in Bastad, had an affect on the performance of the other Ymer on the Tour.
However, he was not the better player and ultimately deserved to lose, whether he was unfocused or not.
The Picks that actually grate on me much more are the ones where everything points in one direction, but the exact opposite has happened.
Both Alexander Zverev and Tomas Martin Etcheverry were on the wrong end of the very fine margins as they failed to cover to my absolute irritation- let's face facts, if you're creating a lot more Break Points than your opponent, you are clearly doing something right on the court, but both of those players played those big points incredibly poorly.
Alexander Zverev had fifteen Break Points compared to his opponent's six in the match... But Zverev broke four times and lost serve three times.
In the first two sets Tomas Martin Etcheverry played, he had seven Break Points and gave up two... Yep, you've figured it out, Etcheverry broke once and his opponent managed to break twice!
So between those two players selected, they played thirty Break Points and won eight of those!! On the return of serve, Zverev and Etcheverry created twenty-two Break Points and won five of those key points.
That is quite something when you think about it.
After a really solid first half of the year, this is the second day outside of a Grand Slam that has given me a thumping, but it would be a lot more concerning if Picks were being dominated. Ultimately both of those matches could be played again and if the same number of Break Points were played, the likes of Zverev and Etcheverry would win say half of those and in all likelihood would have both had a serious case for the win and cover.
This is the main reason I have not lost faith in the way Picks are being identified, but it would be nice to have a strong end to this week after the debacle of Tuesday. It won't be easy if these margins continue to test the patience, but being patient is the key in a long season when you have to accept some ups and downs.
Over the last month it does feel like we have been on a considerable dip, but I would accept seeing my Picks dominate the Break Point count knowing that the numbers should even out.
Zizou Bergs - 1.5 games v Jurij Rodionov: Both of these players have come through the Qualifiers in Gstaad, although it does feel like Zizou Bergs has played the better players to reach the Second Round here.
In saying that, confidence can be built by dismissing players in the manner that Jurij Rodionov has done and he will need to serve well to win this match.
Over the course of the season and in recent years, you would have to give Bergs the edge in clay court performances compared with the Austrian. His serve has been slightly more effective, while Zizou Bergs has proved to be the superior return player on the two in 2023.
The three previous meetings between the players have all been on grass courts, but you might have felt those courts would have suited Jurij Rodionov more than Zizou Bergs. Last month they split two grass court matches so Bergs will be confident he has the tennis to win this match, especially on the red dirt where he has tended to do his best work over the last twelve months.
Conditions in Gstaad tend to make this a faster clay court, which will aid Rodionov, but Zizou Bergs can get the better of him to reach this ATP Quarter Final with the expectation that the Belgian can produce the stronger return numbers on the day.
Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: He won the title in Eastbourne in the week before Wimbledon began, but Francisco Cerundolo was not able to keep the grass court successes going as he was dumped out in the Second Round.
Over the last eighteen months, the Argentine has been one of the most improved players on the Tour and last summer he was able to win the title in Bastad before reaching the Semi Final at Hamburg.
Things didn't really go to plan for Francisco Cerundolo after that Semi Final run so he has very little to defend in terms of Ranking points over the next few months. First he has to try and defend the title he won here and you have to believe Cerundolo will be motivated to have a good run in the European clay court events being played.
A bye through to the Second Round means Francisco Cerundolo is playing his first match this week and he is taking on young Frenchman Luca Van Assche who has flashed potential as he grows onto the Tour. A First Round win means Van Assche should be ready to deal with the conditions in Bastad, although he has yet to have a really big defining win in his young career.
Only one top 50 Ranking win on any surface backs up that perception of Luca Van Assche, but he should have some successes in this one against an opponent who is not going to blow you away behind his serve. However, Van Assche will have difficulties in containing the Francisco Cerundolo return game and that is effectively expected to make the difference in this Second Round match.
Luca Van Assche did play well enough to take a set from Novak Djokovic on the clay courts in April, but he was worn down over three sets in that match and Cerundolo should be able to something similar in this encounter.
MY PICKS: Zizou Bergs - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Federico Coria - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Kaja Juvan - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sara Sorribes Tormo - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-5, - 8.40 Units (12 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
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