Hands up if you had Marketa Vondrousova vs Ons Jabeur in the Ladies Wimbledon Final?
Both players deserve a lot of credit for making their way through the draw to compete for the title on Saturday, although the eye-catching wins have been produced by Ons Jabeur who will almost certainly going into the Final as the favourite.
Beating Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka in back to back matches and both from a set behind is solid form, but Sabalenka will be kicking herself for the capitulation in the second set.
After moving 4-2 ahead and having game points for 5-3, errors just ratcheted up another level and this became the latest Grand Slam Semi Final where Aryna Sabalenka has been beaten in a final set decider. She will need to win one of those pretty quickly to avoid the reputation growing amongst her opponents that Sabalenka will go off the boil if you can just stick around for long enough, but it will also be important for her from her own mental standpoint.
Losing in Paris and London in the manner she has will be a big blow for the World Number 2 who has still only made it through to one Grand Slam Final.
The Final is played on Saturday, but on Friday the attention will turn to the men as the two Semi Final matches are played between some of the best players on the Tour.
We look to be on course to see the Final that everyone would have wanted when the draw was made two weeks ago, but Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner will both have something to say about that.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Jannik Sinner: Twelve months ago these two players met in the Wimbledon Quarter Final and Jannik Sinner shocked everyone by moving into a 2-0 lead in sets and looking like the player with all of the momentum after crushing Novak Djokovic in that second set.
Things quickly unravelled from there though and Novak Djokovic turned up the gears in winning the last three sets in that Quarter Final 6/3, 6/2, 6/2.
There was nothing going on from Jannik Sinner's side of the court in those last three sets, but he has another year of experience under his belt as he looks to knock off the defending Champion. His performances in the Wimbledon run to the Semi Final has been very strong, but the Italian will also appreciate that he has taken advantage of what has been a very kind draw having not beaten any opponent Ranked inside the top 78 in the World Rankings.
Moving from that level up to facing Novak Djokovic, who is the best grass court player in the world by some margin, is going to be very difficult for Jannik Sinner. He has an aggressive game that will give him confidence, but Novak Djokovic showed he can more than handle that through the last three sets of their Quarter Final in 2022 and I would expect a much quicker start from the World Number 2 knowing about the threat that Sinner can pose at his best.
There had not been a lot of positive form ahead of the Wimbledon tournament from Jannik Sinner, while he had shown little love for the grass before making an impact at this Grand Slam in 2022.
You have to believe that Sinner will know he is going to have to serve very well to just try and put a lid on the Novak Djokovic return quality and make sure that he is playing front foot tennis. Once Djokovic got comfortable with the rhythm in the Quarter Final match in 2022, he was able to keep Sinner under immense pressure and the latter's aggression means he can go off the boil with the slight margins as we have seen in this tournament against lesser opponents.
Any slip in standard will be punished by Novak Djokovic, who can still find another level when it comes to the return of serve.
His level has not been as strong as it was in the 2022 tournament win, but Novak Djokovic did break the Andrey Rublev serve five times in the last Round and that was enough to cover this kind of handicap line. The number is actually similar as it was for the Quarter Final last year and this time I would expect Novak Djokovic to be focused much more quickly than he seemed to be in the first two sets last time these two met on this court.
One factor that could make things a little better for the aggressive style that Jannik Sinner will look to employ is that the forecast is calling for a lot of rain on Friday afternoon and this match may be played under the roof. Taking away outside conditions should allow Sinner to hit through the ball, but Novak Djokovic has become used to winning in many ways on Centre Court and can extend his unbeaten run by making a big statement against one of the young talents on the ATP Tour.
Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 sets v Daniil Medvedev: Two years ago an 18 year old Carlos Alcaraz was given something of a lesson by Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon Second Round and it was the latter who cruised through to the next Round in straight sets.
Fast forward to July 14th 2023 and things have changed- in their first meeting at Wimbledon, Carlos Alcaraz entered the tournament as the World Number 75, but he is now the top Seed and much more comfortable on the grass courts having reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon in 2022 and won the the title at Queen's Club ahead of the third Grand Slam of the season.
Daniil Medvedev was the World Number 2 in June 2021 and has become a Grand Slam Champion since that match, but he is still a little uncertain about the grass courts. This is the best run he has enjoyed at Wimbledon having previously reached the Fourth Round in 2021, while Daniil Medvedev has plenty of experience as he prepares to play in his sixth Grand Slam Semi Final match.
He will be confident having won four of the previous five Grand Slam Semi Finals played and Daniil Medvedev has tended to become very battle hardened once he reaches this stage of a major tournament. The win over Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon has to give Medvedev some confidence, although the current World Number 1 will point out the extremely one-sided victory he holds over the Russian from the Indian Wells Final in March.
The serve will have to be a much bigger weapon for Daniil Medvedev in this Semi Final compared with Indian Wells if he is going to give his opponent something to think about.
Ranking wise Daniil Medvedev has had a nice run at Wimbledon, but wins over Adrian Mannarino and Christopher Eubanks are solid ones against opponents who are decent grass court players. In general he is serving well, but it will be a concern with the amount of breaks of serve he allowed a fairly limited Eubanks to find in the Quarter Final and Daniil Medvedev is going to have to just clean up some of the tennis in order to win this match.
He is capable of doing that, but it feels like Medvedev is going to allow Carlos Alcaraz to dictate the points and that might not be the best approach if the match between them at Indian Wells is anything to go by.
And like the first Semi Final, there is every chance that this match is going to be played under the roof and that is going to put more pressure on Medvedev to serve at his best to try and contain the threat from the World Number 1. Daniil Medvedev has been playing the big points pretty effectively and the decision to stand deep in the court on the return should mean he can at least get plenty of balls back into play.
However, Carlos Alcaraz has shown he can be pretty happy up the court from the baseline and this is a match where he can earn a bit of revenge for the loss at SW19 two years ago.
The Spaniard has been serving at a slightly higher level than Daniil Medvedev in this tournament and he has the superior wins when it comes to Rankings. However, Carlos Alcaraz has been pushed by players who can serve very big in Nicolas Jarry and Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev has to believe he can do something similar in this match under the roof.
You can make a case for Daniil Medvedev to win a set and at his best he can beat anyone on the Tour- however, over the last twelve months he has a 6-8 record against top ten Ranked opponents and three of those wins were in the same tournament in Dubai. The return numbers have not been impressive in those fourteen matches, and that has put him under pressure when it comes to the serve.
Over the same time period, Carlos Alcaraz has a 7-3 record against top ten Ranked opponents and he has had a slight edge on the return compared with Medvedev.
Controlling his emotions will be key after what was seen in Paris in the match against Novak Djokovic, but Carlos Alcaraz can use that experience to edge past this opponent.
An inspired Daniil Medvedev has to be expected on the court with something to prove- he will know that everyone is expecting a Final between the top two Ranked players in the world and that may mean Medvedev can play with a 'nothing to lose' attitude, which can make him very dangerous.
Tight sets have to be expected, but Carlos Alcaraz may be able to win a few more key points to earn his place in the Sunday Final with a three or four set win.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 55-55, - 12.98 Units (220 Units Staked, - 5.90% Yield)
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