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Monday, 10 July 2023

Wimbledon Tennis Day 8 Picks 2023 (July 10th)

I've had a frustrating weekend at Wimbledon, but nothing would have prepared me for Sunday when nothing went right almost from the off.

It does frustrate, but there is nothing you can do about it when those minor inches gang up to cause a tidal wave of issues.

The day before I had one Pick lose in straight sets despite losing a total of 3 points more than the opponent (Alexander Zverev), and then you can just see how Hubert Hurkacz was able to save a Break Point in the second set to sum up the Sunday plays.

Days like this happen, but it is hard not to be irritated by them.

Inches matter so much in tennis and a couple of points here and there would have changed things around. Instead I had to sit through watching matches get really close, almost within two points of finding some winners, but ultimately seeing those crumble all around the courts.


There is still a week to go before we get to the end of Wimbledon so time to turn things back around and that has to be the focus after a really poor Day 7.

Fourth Round action is completed on Monday, as long as the organisers get a little luck and avoid seeing really long matches on their main show courts, and there are some quality matches scheduled for The Championships.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Holger Rune: Any time you see a player battle as hard as Holger Rune has done to win his Third Round match you have to give that player a lot of credit. However, in the Grand Slam setting, it is also very difficult to ignore the fact that he would have invested a lot of effort, emotionally and physically, to win a five setter which lasted a minute shy of a full four hours.

Holger Rune had little grass court expectation going into the 2023 season having lost all of his previous matches on the surface, but he played well at Queen's Club when reaching the Semi Final and has won three matches at Wimbledon to enter the second week for the first time. The manner of his win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Third Round will have been a huge boost for the young player, especially as Holger Rune had to fight back from tough positions in the final set, but this is another big challenge for him.

Not many would have tipped up Grigor Dimitrov for a huge run considering his drop in standards over the last couple of years and most will feel his chances of winning a Grand Slam have perhaps passed him by.

The Bulgarian has long been a comfortable grass court player and this is a time when there are not many players that feel that good on this surface. Winning the tournament is never going to be easy while Novak Djokovic is around, but Grigor Dimitrov is in the other side of the draw and there may be some confidence building towards reaching a maiden Grand Slam Final.

Carlos Alcaraz ended Grigor Dimitrov's run at Queen's Club, but he has won all nine sets at Wimbledon and the win over Frances Tiafoe was impressive. While he did have to finish that off on Sunday, Dimitrov did not need a lot of time on the court and it would be quite amazing if he is going to use fatigue as any excuse in this match.

Despite being a lot younger, Holger Rune has invested a lot in his Third Round match and there is a feeling that he could come out a little flat.

We saw that in Paris when Holger Rune won a tough five setter in the Fourth Round and did not start playing in the Quarter Final until he was two sets down against Casper Ruud and there is a feeling that we could see something similar here. Casper Ruud is clearly very good on the clay and on Monday Holger Rune will be playing someone who is comfortable on the grass and Grigor Dimitrov may be able to have a bit too much know-how for his opponent in the bid for a Quarter Final place.


Christopher Eubanks-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 42.5 games: There may be some frustration with the way the Wimbledon organisers have handled his matches as Stefanos Tsitsipas seemingly has played a Singles match every day of the tournament so far. Once again the World Number 5 has been placed on an outside court as the event moves into the second week, but the expectation is that it will be a dry and warm day in order to complete this Fourth Round match.

Those conditions are perhaps not ideal for Stefanos Tsitsipas as he faces the huge serving Christopher Eubanks who won a grass court title in the lead up to Wimbledon as he reached a new career high World Ranking, while he has moved past the Second Round in a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.

Reaching the second week is going to mean another jump in the World Ranking so Christoper Eubanks will be playing with a lot of confidence. His serve has proved a potent weapon having held 92% of his service games played on the grass before the tournament and Eubanks has dropped his serve just four times at Wimbledon.

Now he comes up against someone in Stefanos Tsitsipas who has found it tough to get into a rhythm on the return on most surfaces outside of the clay courts and who has been pushed to five sets twice already in three wins. Beating Laslo Djere in straight sets is a huge boost for Tsitsipas, but he won just 28% of return points on the day and was simply able to win the big points at critical times throughout the match.

Like his opponent, Stefanos Tsitsipas will be very pleased with his serving numbers even if he has dropped four sets already in three matches in SW19. The Greek player has faced just eight Break Points in those matches, but it has seen him drop serve three times and the poor returning ability has meant those breaks have ended up being costly in terms of sets won and lost.

It will be the case in this match and the feeling is that two strong servers will make it very difficult to have their serve broken with any kind of consistency throughout this Fourth Round match. Neither Stefanos Tsitsipas nor Christopher Eubanks will be that convinced about his return, and it does suggest that this match going at least four sets will put the total game line under threat.

They are meeting for the first time, but that may mean a little more time is needed to get into the rhythm of the serve that each player is facing.

Both won in straight sets in the Third Round, but Christoper Eubanks and Stefanos Tsitsipas have been forced into a fourth set in each of the other four matches played at Wimbledon. Two tie-breakers might be needed to get over this high total set, but the serving power of both coupled with relatively limited returns means anything other than a straight sets win for Eubanks or Tsitsipas has every chance of moving over this number.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Christopher Eubanks-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 42.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev-Jiri Lehecka Over 37.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 49-45, - 2.98 Units (188 Units Staked, - 1.59% Yield)

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