Wimbledon Tennis Day 7 Picks 2023 (July 9th)

Saturday has been a busy day, but the Fourth Round Picks and update for the tournament can be seen below.

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Daniel Elahi Galan: In every Grand Slam that is played you will find an unfamiliar name or two that makes it into the second week and at Wimbledon you have to consider Daniel Elahi Galan as that name in the Gentlemen's draw. The Colombian is the World Number 85 and had never been beyond the Third Round at any Grand Slam in his career, while two First Round losses at the Australian and French Open would have meant very little expectation going into the third Slam of the 2023 season.

Daniel Elahi Galan did win a couple of Qualifiers at Eastbourne in the sole grass court tournament he entered prior to Wimbledon, but was beaten in the First Round.

However, the draw has worked out to a kind one at Wimbledon and Daniel Elahi Galan has made very good use of it even if he would have started all three matches as the underdog. The five set win over Mikael Ymer in the Third Round has seen him break new ground, but Elahi Galan is now going to have to raise his level by two or three gears as he takes on a player that has shown he is very comfortable on the grass even with limited experience.

Bigger impacts have been made on other surfaces, but Jannik Sinner did also hold a 2-0 lead in sets over Novak Djokovic here at Wimbledon last year before the latter was able to rally for an important win on the road to title number seven.

The Italian is one of the poster boys for the new generation along with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner has made relatively comfortable work of his first three opponents. He did drop a set in the Third Round, but Jannik Sinner moved through the gears when he felt some of the pressure and he looks to be very confident in his game plan on the court.

There is still room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve on this surface, but Sinner has shown his abilities on that side of his tennis already in the tournament.

In the last Round, Daniel Elahi Galan allowed Mikael Ymer to create twenty-two Break Points in their five setter and you do have to wonder if he can get enough out of this shot to keep this one competitive. The sole previous meeting between the players took place on a hard court, but Jannik Sinner broke the Elahi Galan serve six times in a comfortable win and you have to believe the World Number 8 can reach his first Grand Slam Quarter Final in 2023 after disappointing exits in Melbourne and Paris.

Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 sets v Roman Safiullin: The blanket ban for Russian and Belarusian players meant Roman Safiullin was not able to play at Wimbledon last year, but he is enjoying his time in South West London in 2023.

Three solid wins has seen Roman Safiullin come through the draw in somewhat surprising fashion considering limited grass court success previously. Even in the build up to Wimbledon, a lot of the better results came against players Ranked way outside the top 100, but Safiullin has been able to take advantage of the way this section has opened up.

It was a good section to land in with the highest Seed being Casper Ruud, who has clearly yet to work out how to perform on this surface, while Roman Safiullin beat a Seed in the First Round.

Denis Shapovalov will feel this section has allowed him to come through the draw and build his confidence after what has been a difficult twelve months on the Tour. The Canadian has seen his World Ranking slip to Number 29, but Denis Shapovalov has a strong grass game having reached the Wimbledon Semi Final in 2021.

Expectations would not have been too high ahead of the tournament, especially after losing early in Stuttgart and Halle, but Denis Shapovalov has dropped just two sets in the tournament. His win over Liam Broady in the Third Round might have been in an emotionally charged match, but the left hander has had a day to prepare for this Fourth Round match and Denis Shapovalov deserves to be a favourite.

While the last twelve months have been tough, Denis Shapovalov did beat Roman Safiullin earlier this year on the hard courts of Adelaide. His serve was an important weapon on the day and this feels like a Fourth Round match in which the Shapovalov serve may just give him a narrow edge over his lower Ranked opponent.

This has the makings of being a competitive match if Roman Safiullin can continue serving at the level he has shown this week, especially as Denis Shapovalov can struggle on the return. However, it should still be a match that the favourite can come through in three or four sets even if he needs tie-breakers to work his way through to a first Grand Slam Quarter Final since the Australian Open in 2022.

Alexander Bublik v Andrey Rublev: The very short grass court season does mean players can have a big impact by just getting hot for a month in the middle of June through to the middle of July. Two of those players who have produced a huge amount of wins on the surface will be meeting in this Fourth Round match and both Andrey Rublev and Alexander Bublik will be confident they have the tennis to earn a spot in the Quarter Final at Wimbledon.

Andrey Rublev has reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon for the second time in three years having been part of the group of players unable to play here last year. A win on Sunday would mean Andrey Rublev has been able to make the Quarter Final at all four Grand Slam events, although the Russian has yet to breakthrough for a Semi Final run at any of the tournaments played.

For Alexander Bublik it has already been a career best week at a Grand Slam having reached the second week for the first time- his previous best results have actually come at Wimbledon where Alexander Bublik has twice managed to work his way through to the Third Round. His wins this week have been comfortable with Bublik having won nine sets in a row since dropping the opening one played at the tournament in a tie-breaker.

Confidence would have been high ahead of the Grand Slam beginning as Alexander Bublik is playing off a career high World Ranking, a mark that is going to be improved again when the new Rankings come out a week on Monday. You can understand Bublik feeling so good having won a big title in Halle in the build up to Wimbledon, and he was also able to win a grass court tournament in Newport last July so playing on the grass is clearly something that Alexander Bublik enjoys.

There is no doubting that Andrey Rublev is comfortable on the grass too and he has been very good for the Tennis Picks through the first week of the tournament.

However, Alexander Bublik may have the mental edge after beating Andrey Rublev in the Halle Final in a match where he had played the clearly superior tennis. That result snapped a three match losing run to Andrey Rublev, although it won't take an awful lot to turn that result around if Bublik is not as focused as he has seemingly been over the last month.

This has the makings of another close battle considering the Halle Final went the distance, but Alexander Bublik might be a little under-rated having shown title winning capabilities on the grass. He is playing with a real sense of purpose and it may be the right time to go against Andrey Rublev for the first time at Wimbledon this week. 

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: The clock was ticking on Day 5 and Novak Djokovic knew he would have to find a way to get through Stan Wawrinka quickly to avoid having to return to finish his Third Round match on Day 6.

It produced his best performance of the week as he was able to come through in straight sets and means Novak Djokovic will have had a day of rest along with the rest of the players in his half of the draw ahead of their Fourth Round match.

This has the makings of a potentially awkward Fourth Round match for Novak Djokovic against a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist who possesses a very good serve. Hubert Hurkacz holds a win over Roger Federer at Wimbledon so he should not be in awe of the defending Champion, although beating Federer at the end of his career and Novak Djokovic in his current form is a vastly different challenge.

Hubert Hurkacz has played well in his three wins and the victory over Lorenzo Musetti is a strong one, but he did have a relatively poor build up to Wimbledon. Early losses to players he would have expected to be at will have hit the confidence, while the big Pole knows the head to head with Novak Djokovic is heavily skewed in favour of the latter.

That head to head includes a four set loss to Novak Djokovic in 2019 and this feels like a match in which Hurkacz is going to have to serve at an extremely high level to have any chance.

However, in their career matches, Hubert Hurkacz has only been able to hold 73% of service games played against Novak Djokovic, which is vastly down on the numbers he generally produces. Too many second serves will be a problem and Hubert Hurkacz will have difficulties getting into the Djokovic service games with anything near the same regularity as expected from the Number 2 Seed.

This is a wide mark, but Novak Djokovic has covered it twice against this opponent in Grand Slam matches previously, while he has been a comfortable winner in their last two best of three set matches too. One set may need a tie-breaker, but Novak Djokovic has the return game to break down what is an effective, but limited opponent in front of him.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Lesia Tsurenko + 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 48-39, + 7.02 Units (174 Units Staked, + 4.03% Yield)