It is the Final that everyone would have hoped we would see at Wimbledon and on Friday both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic were able to win in straight sets to earn their place on Centre Court on Sunday.
The World Number 1 will also be on the line when Alcaraz and Djokovic face off, but the biggest prize is going to be the Wimbledon title as the young Spaniard tries to knock off a dominant SW19 Champion.
Before that we have the Ladies Final on Saturday and the horrible conditions in London could potentially make things very difficult.
However, I am assuming the rain in the area will mean the Final is played under the roof on Centre Court and that will only be good news for Marketa Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur. Neither player will want to be playing through the extremely gusty winds that have been forecasted through the day, which would just add to the pressures that they will be feeling as both look to win a maiden Grand Slam title.
Marketa Vondrousova-Ons Jabeur over 5.5 match breaks: Making three Grand Slam Finals in the last five events played will have placed Ons Jabeur amongst the best players on the WTA Tour. For herself, losing the first two of those Slam Finals will have stung and Jabeur may not really believe she belongs alongside the very best players on the Tour if she is not able to become a Grand Slam Champion.
She would have entered the Wimbledon Final as a narrow favourite twelve months ago, but was the underdog at the US Open a couple of months later when going down to Iga Swiatek. This time Ons Jabeur is going to be a significant favourite in the Final on Saturday as she prepares to take on Marketa Vondrousova.
Like her opponent, Marketa Vondrousova is a former Grand Slam Finalist and ended up being well beaten by Ashleigh Barty at the 2021 French Open. This is only the third time since that Final that Vondrousova has made it through to the second week at a Slam, but the Czech player has been in strong form in the tournament and will have to use that previous experience to help her in this first Wimbledon Final.
Marketa Vondrousova has struggled in Finals in her relatively young career having lost four of the five she has played, including losing the Olympic Games Gold Medal match. It has now been six years since an 18 year old Vondrousova won her only Singles title, but being the underdog could help her in this match up.
The lefty can also look back at this calendar year and note that she holds two wins over Ons Jabeur- one of those was at Indian Wells, but perhaps more importantly is the fact that Marketa Vondrousova was able to beat Jabeur at the Australian Open so has shown she can win under Grand Slam pressure.
Both of those wins were in strong performances from Marketa Vondrousova, but the grass is definitely the domain of Ons Jabeur, who has beaten this opponent on this surface in 2021.
After wins over Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, Ons Jabeur has to make sure she does not feel like she has one hand on the title and focus on the match. It is going to be much different compared with her last three matches against some of the big hitting players on the WTA Tour and a crafty, clever player like Bianca Andreescu almost beat Jabeur earlier in the tournament.
She is facing another one of those in Vondrousova who can use slices and is willing to get to the net, while also possessing some decent pop off the ground. The tactics will have to be different from Ons Jabeur and it is unlikely that she will benefit from as many unforced errors from Marketa Vondrousova as the likes of Petra Kvitova and Sabalenka were donating.
The mental side of the match is harder to call and you have to believe there will be nerves on both sides of the net, while I think both Vondrousova and Jabeur are happier returning than serving. With the nerves, this does feel like a match that will see plenty of breaks of serve and certainly more than anticipated by the layers.
In the two matches played between these players this year, there have been a total of twenty-one breaks of serve in the forty-eight service games played. Both of those have been on the hard courts and the feeling is that the grass should play a bit faster to aid the servers, but there have been at least nine breaks of serve in each of the last three matches played by Marketa Vondrousova at Wimbledon.
The Semi Final involving Ons Jabeur only had four breaks of serve, but the previous two matches saw seven breaks of serve each time and the returning numbers of Marketa Vondrousova have been every effective.
The underdog should be able to make this a competitive Final, even through the nerves, and the last two Wimbledon Finals have seen at least three sets needed. Despite the extra experience, Ons Jabeur is under plenty of pressure too considering the expectation that will be on her shoulders and the Tunisian making no secret of wanting to win major titles.
Another long match for Ons Jabeur may not be a big surprise either and there may be a few swings in momentum within the Final as long as Marketa Vondrousova can stay on top of the obvious nerves she will be dealing with on the day.
MY PICK: Marketa Vondrousova-Ons Jabeur Over 5.5 Match Breaks @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 57-55, - 9.94 Units (224 Units Staked, - 4.44% Yield)
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