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Tuesday, 11 July 2023

Wimbledon Tennis Day 9 Picks 2023 (July 11th)

It has been an irritating couple of days for the Tennis Picks, but we have to remain confident that a strong end to Wimbledon will produce positive numbers.


The final eight names in both the Gentlemen's and Ladies draws have been confirmed on Monday evening and the pre-tournament favourites are all still very much in contetion.

Novak Djokovic remains the player to beat in the men's draw, but Carlos Alcaraz has looked strong this week and there are some fascinating names still left in the tournament. It is good to see the likes of Holger Rune cracking through the door at another Grand Slam event, while Jannik Sinner will still feel he owes Djokovic having blown a two sets lead over the seven time Wimbledon Champion here twelve months ago.

There is no doubting the importance of seeing the new 'Big Three' on the WTA Tour all making it through to the Quarter Final and I do think those players are going to lead the women's side of the sport into a new era. Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka have all looked capable of winning the title here this week and the World Number 1 may benefit from being in one half of the draw, while Rybakina and Sabalenka remain on course for a huge Semi Final showdown.

Having three players begin to compete in Finals and Semi Finals regularly will only build the profile of the WTA Tour who have been looking for consistent rivalries at the top of the game.

Once you have those, you will have fans wanting to see those top names much as they have in the men's game and we will have little reason to wonder if organisers are going to be willing to schedule the top women's players in the prime time slots at the biggest events.


Jessica Pegula - 1.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: Neither of these players could really point out a lot of good form on the grass courts before Wimbledon 2023 and so it will feel like a surprise to see Jessica Pegula and Marketa Vondrousova in this Quarter Final.

The First Round win was tough, but Jessica Pegula has raised her level in the last three victories in SW19 and will be more comfortable on the show courts compared with Marketa Vondrousova.

However, the left hander from the Czech Republic has arguably won the tougher matches with victories over solid grass court players in Veronika Kudermetova and Donna Vekic. Even the come from behind over compatriot Marie Bouzkova is a solid won considering the latter has enjoyed success on the grass courts at Wimbledon before and so Marketa Vondrousova needs to be given a lot of respect.

The Fourth Round win was tough, but Marketa Vondrousova had been in fine form through the first three Rounds and had been serving incredibly well. She enjoyed a couple of very good wins in the warm up events prior to the third Grand Slam beginning and Vondrousova will feel her serve can cause a lot of problems for the higher Ranked player.

Serving well has also been key for Jessica Pegula and both players have dropped serve seven times across their four wins. One difference could be that Jessica Pegula has been a touch more consistent in her return numbers on the grass courts compared with Marketa Vondrousova, who has had a strong week in that regards, but a week that is much stronger than we have become accustomed to seeing from her on this surface.

The ability to play defence may just give Jessica Pegula a narrow edge, although she has some mental demons to exorcise having never been beyond the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam.

Her five previous Quarter Final matches have largely seen Pegula lose without much of a fight and Marketa Vondrousova is a former Grand Slam Finalist so may have the edge in terms of controlling nerves. However, it has been a few years since Vondrousova made that Final in Paris, and this is the best run she has had since the French Open in 2021.

Much will depend on how well Jessica Pegula can serve- if she can control this part of her tennis, the American can set a new career mark in reaching a first Slam Semi Final. It would not be a major surprise if we need a third set decider considering both players will be expected to have some nerves to deal with, but Jessica Pegula has found a strong level in the last three wins and she has had the deeper grass court success and that can show up here.


Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Elina Svitolina: Prior to her run at the French Open, Elina Svitolina had shown some solid clay court form by winning a title in Strasbourg and that makes her successes at Wimbledon even more surprising than what we saw in Paris. In that tournament she was pretty well beaten by Aryna Sabalenka in the Quarter Final and Elina Svitolina will be an underdog against one of the 'Big Three' on the WTA Tour in this Quarter Final.

She would have fancied her chances of upsetting Aryna Sabalenka, who is not at her best on the clay, and Elina Svitolina will feel the same when facing Iga Swiatek on the grass courts.

The World Number 1 was pushed to her absolute limit in her Fourth Round win over Belinda Bencic and most will have noted that Iga Swiatek is already enjoying her best run at Wimbledon and she is facing an opponent that has previously reached the Semi Final at SW19. This will have raised some expectation of an upset, but Elina Svitolina is not exactly someone that has had a lot of success at the tournament in the past.

In fact she has only been beyond the Second Round once outside of that Semi Final run and a heavy loss in a warm up tournament on the grass meant there was very little expectation for the veteran player returning to the Tour.

Elina Svitolina has played well this week and the serve has been an important weapon for her- it has allowed the Ukrainian to do enough on the return to come through matches, but Svitolina has been tested and the players she has beaten are considerably below the level that Iga Swiatek has been able to show.

Even in the warm up event, Iga Swiatek won three matches in dominant fashion and she has been very strong in her wins at Wimbledon before the tight victory over Belinda Bencic. Beating someone who is very effective on the grass will have given Swiatek a lot of belief and she will have noted the breaks of serve that Victoria Azarenka was able to produce against the Elina Svitolina serve.

Iga Swiatek is more consistent than Victoria Azarenka at this stage of their respective careers and the World Number 1 has a stronger serve that will be more difficult for Elina Svitolina to attack.

A lot of emotion and effort was put into the Fourth Round win by Elina Svitolina on Saturday too and it may be that she does not have enough tennis in the legs to recover and beat someone as good as Iga Swiatek.

The top Seed has won five of the six Grand Slam Quarter Final matches she has played and Iga Swiatek would have covered this line in three of those five wins. If she can come out fast and quieten some of the crowd, Iga Swiatek is playing well enough on the grass courts to make this match a lot more comfortable than the Fourth Round win over Belinda Bencic turned out to be.


Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Roman Safiullin: A couple of top 30 wins has helped Roman Safiullin through to the Wimbledon Quarter Final and he is arguably the most unexpected player left in the last eight of either the Gentlemen's and Ladies' draw at the tournament.

At the start of the tournament, Roman Safiullin would have had little expectation on his shoulders as the World Number 92, especially as someone who had an 8-11 record against top 100 Ranked opponents. The serve has been a big weapon for the Russian and he has dropped it just twice in his last two wins at Wimbledon to make easy progress into the Quarter Final.

However, earlier in the tournament Roman Safiullin saw his serve broken four times in both the First and Second Round matches and now he has to step up and take on a very confident youngster.

Last year Jannik Sinner reached the Wimbledon Quarter Final and led Novak Djokovic 2-0 in sets and he has clearly enjoyed playing on the grass again. The Italian is looking to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final for the first time so will be feeling some pressure, but Jannik Sinner has made comfortable progress in the tournament thanks to a dominant serve of his own.

This is going to be a key shot for Jannik Sinner, while there will be a real feeling that the World Number 8 has a real edge when it comes to the return of the two players competing in this Quarter Final.

It proved to be the case in a straight sets win over Roman Safiullin in their sole previous meeting, which came on a hard court in 2022, while the limited grass court successes of the lower Ranked player makes it difficult to believe he can maintain the current levels.

You have to always respect a player in the form that Roman Safiullin has shown in this tournament, but he is going to have to find another level to stick with Jannik Sinner. The latter had a closer than expected Fourth Round win, but that was down to some wastefulness when it came to converting the Break Points, but in the main Jannik Sinner has been in strong form with his tennis and should be happy enough with the match up.

If Roman Safiullin drops his level slightly on the return, Jannik Sinner is more than capable of taking advantage of any slip and he can move through to the Semi Final at a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.


Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Andrey Rublev: While the rest of his half of the Wimbledon draw were able to complete Fourth Round matches on Sunday as scheduled, Novak Djokovic was forced to return on Monday to complete his win over Hubert Hurkacz. He led 2-0 in sets when the match was prematurely ended on Sunday, and Novak Djokovic had to play a couple of sets to earn his place in the Quarter Final.

He has a little over twenty-four hours to prepare for the next match at Wimbledon, but Novak Djokovic should not be using any potential fatigue as an excuse. The Fourth Round match was not a taxing one despite the sets needing tie-breakers or late breaks of serve to be decided and the limited rallies played means the World Number 2 should have plenty left in the tank.

Novak Djokovic might have dropped a set for the first time this week, but he has been in fine form at Wimbledon as he looks for a fifth consecutive title to match Roger Federer's mark of eight titles won at this Grand Slam. It has been ten years since he was last beaten on Centre Court and Novak Djokovic is likely to be much happier with the kind of rhythm he is expected to get out of this match compared with the last one.

He won't be taking anything for granted against Andrey Rublev who has reached the Quarter Final at all four Grand Slam events after rallying to beat Alexander Bublik in five sets in the Fourth Round. It is the eighth Quarter Final that Rublev will be playing at a Grand Slam, but he has yet to make it through to the Semi Final and will likely have very similar thoughts about facing Novak Djokovic as he did before they faced one another at the Australian Open.

Back in January it did not sound like Andrey Rublev had a lot of confidence in taking on Novak Djokovic on a court he loves in Melbourne, but it is arguably an even tougher test to beat the Serb on Centre Court.

In their match at the Australian Open, Novak Djokovic broke the Rublev serve five times and was able to win 70% of his service points played.

Now Andrey Rublev has to try and find a way to break the Djokovic serve which has been in imperious form at Wimbledon having been broken just twice in his four wins and winning at least 80% of the points played behind serve in each of the last three wins.

The underdog has found a fair few breaks of serve throughout this tournament, but Andrey Rublev has not really faced a server like Novak Djokovic who can back up his second serve effectively. He did not win a lot of points against Alexander Bublik in the Fourth Round having been restricted to 28% of points won on the return, although Andrey Rublev was able to break serve three times in the match.

He is not expected to be given as many free points as Bublik donated and Novak Djokovic will not wilt at the key moments.

Andrey Rublev is going to have to serve well to stay with Novak Djokovic, but this has been a poor match up for him in the past with just 68% of service games ending with a hold.

Novak Djokovic has not returned as well as he would have liked in the tournament, but this might be a comfortable enough match up for him to expect something like his best form. In two of the four wins at Wimbledon, Djokovic has broken at least four times and the head to head with Andrey Rublev suggests the title favourite should have his chances in this Quarter Final.

In the previous seven Grand Slam Quarter Final matches played, Andrey Rublev has only managed to break serve in 4% of return games played and he may find Novak Djokovic putting him under pressure in this one. While this is a big handicap mark, the defending Champion is capable of finding those breaks of serve to move into a position to cover and just make sure something is kept in reserve for the Semi Final on Friday.

MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 51-49, - 7.66 Units (200 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

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