Tennis Picks 2023 (July 23rd)

The poor start to the week was always going to be very difficult to overcome, but it perhaps should have been a stronger end to the latest set of tournaments than we have had.

Some of the losses have been in matches where the selections have dominated the Break Point count, but found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and those have been the Picks that have made it very tough to get back on track following the poor Tuesday opening to the week.

On Sunday we are going to have the Finals played at the tournaments that have been running this week and there are some decent matches set to take place.

A big clay court event is coming up in Hamburg next week, but there are also stops in Umag and Atlanta to come as the run towards the US Open begins in the United States.

Late finishes in the WTA events in Budapest and Palermo means those markets have not been created at the time of writing and any selections will be added to this thread on Sunday, at least a couple of hours before those Finals are scheduled to be played.

Pedro Cachin - 1.5 games v Albert Ramos: All of the veteran players on the Tour that have won titles like Albert Ramos have to be respected and even at this stage of their careers they can put in a surge in one week to take home another trophy.

Albert Ramos has won a title on the clay courts in 2019, 2021 and 2022 and the victory four years ago was right here in Gstaad... That will give him confident at the end of a strong week where Ramos has shown his battling qualities by winning a deciding set three times in four victories.

It does mean he has played a lot of tennis compared with Pedro Cachin who has won all of his matches in straight sets and spent considerably less time on the court compared with the Spaniard.

Add in the fact that Pedro Cachin looks to be an improving player on the Tour who has produced solid, if unspectacular clay court numbers all season. His serve has been an important weapon in the Gstaad conditions, while Albert Ramos has had to return well to make up for the fact that his own serve has been a touch vulnerable.

A first ATP Final is going to mean nerves for Pedro Cachin, but his tennis should be good enough to win this match against Albert Ramos. Outside of the Second Round win over Roberto Bautista Agut, Pedro Cachin has broken at least four times in all three other wins in Gstaad, while Cachin has only dropped serve four times all week.

The expectation is that Albert Ramos will test him with the way he has been returning this week, although the lefty is likely to feel the pressure from the returning that Pedro Cachin has also been able to produce.

Controlling nerves is never easy in a first Final at this level, but Pedro Cachin can earn the majority of the Break Points and that can help him win this and cover this mark.

Casper Ruud - 1.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The top two Seeds in Bastad have made it through to the Final on Sunday and this has become familiar for fans of Casper Ruud.

After Wimbledon, Ruud has taken advantage of his clay court quality to win a number of European events on the red dirt in the last couple of years and he is a narrow favourite in the Bastad Final. That may be down to his clay court expertise, but also the fact he had a much more straight-forward win in the Semi Final compared with Andrey Rublev who needed three sets to beat Francisco Cerundolo in a tough encounter.

It took considerably longer than Ruud's Semi Final win, and Andrey Rublev had to win the second Semi Final which means less time to prepare for the Final.

He did win the first four matches against Casper Ruud on the Tour, but three of those were when Andrey Rublev was Ranked considerably higher than the Norwegian. However, all three clay court matches between the pair were won in those four matches and Andrey Rublev will certainly have some confidence behind him knowing that is the case.

On the other hand, Casper Ruud will be feeling pretty good that he has won their last two Tour matches on the hard courts of the Tour Finals. He has also reached the French Open Final twice since losing his last clay court match to Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud has been serving very well in Bastad this week, which could be key to the outcome of this Final.

As well as Rublev has been serving, he has not been as effective on the return in this tournament compared with Casper Ruud and the anticipation is for a competitive Final to have the narrow inches landing in favour of the top Seed.

Casper Ruud has only gone 2-2 against top 20 Ranked opponents this season on the clay courts, while Andrey Rublev has a solid 5-1 record in that same situation.

Three sets in this Final would not be a surprise and the sets should be competitive, but Casper Ruud can find a bit more energy to win the big points at key times to just earn yet another summer title on the red dirt.

Kateryna Baindl - 1.5 games v Maria Timofeeva: Just a few words on the Budapest Final with the markets now completed and a selection made.

It has been a remarkable week for the 19 year old who has entered the draw as the World Number 246 and a Lucky Loser, but Maria Timofeeva has been winning behind tight margins. She spent well over three hours on court in her Semi Final and has played a lot of tennis already this week, while Timofeeva has faced seven more Break Points than she has created in her last two matches.

Playing the big points well is clearly a good sign, but Maria Timofeeva has not shown a strong tendency to do that before Budapest and it feels like an outlier rather than a general rule when it comes to her tennis.

It is expected that the younger player will have chances in this match as Kateryna Baindl hsa not been serving at a really high level in this tournament. The Ukrainian had to win two matches on Saturday after her Quarter Final had been rained out the day before, but Baindl has been returning well this week and that should see her earn the majority of Break Points.

Of course that doesn't mean she will take them, but the play is backing Baindl to come through in three sets and do enough to cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Pedro Cachin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Kateryna Baindl - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-15, - 6.02 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.75% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 22nd)

The day started off perfectly, but a poor run in Gstaad hurt the Tennis Picks in the Quarter Final Round on Friday and it looks like a week in which I am not going to recover from a miserable opening day.

Some of the manner of a few of the losses this week have been frustrating, but the majority of Break Points are being created by those players being backed and that is about all I can do.

With the Semi Final matches set for Saturday, you can see my Picks below.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pedro Cachin - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Nadia Podoroska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-14, - 7.36 Units (50 Units Staked, - 14.72% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 21st)

A couple of early winners got the day off to a solid start, but the Jordan Thompson pick was a really poor one, although that is mainly down to the final result than the actual identification of a selection.

The Australian just had a really tough day in the office and these things can happen on a tennis court.

Overall it was at least another positive step forward after a really bad start to the week, but there is still more room for improvement with the tournaments entering the Quarter Final Round on Friday.

Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 games v Hamad Medjedovic: A couple of days ago I was tempted to back Hamad Medjedovic to get the better of Dominic Thiem in the Second Round in Gstaad, but ultimately thought the odds were just about right and the value might not have been there.

That did prove to be a wrong decision on the day, although the young Serb, who had celebrated his 20th birthday the day before, battled back after dropping the second set to beat the former Grand Slam Champion.

It is a result that has been part of a big week for Hamad Medjedovic, although this is going to be another tough test for him in the Quarter Final. You might not think that after beating Dominic Thiem, who has reached the French Open Final at his best, but you also have to accept that the Austrian is still finding his way back on the Tour after injury.

This is not going to be the case for Yannick Hanfmann, who also needed three sets to win his Second Round match. The World Number 46 could seen reach a new career best World Ranking and a win in this Quarter Final will go a long way in doing that for Hanfmann, who has been a comfortable clay courter in his time on the Tour.

Beating those he has been expected to has been key to the rise up the World Rankings for Yannick Hanfmann who has a 16-3 record on the clay courts when playing opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. The numbers produced in those nineteen matches have been very impressive with Hanfmann holding 85% of service games and breaking in 38% of return games, although one of those losses came in the final Qualifying Round at Roland Garros before Yannick Hanfmann was given a Lucky Loser spot.

Yannick Hanfmann obviously would not have covered this line in those three defeats against players outside of the top 100, but he has overcome the line in the sixteen wins. He has lost just two sets in the victories and Hamad Medjedovic has already played a lot of tennis in Gstaad this week after coming through the Qualifiers to take his place in the main draw.

Hamad Medjedovic has two top 100 wins on the clay this week, but he was just 1-4 in those matches on the red dirt in 2023 prior to the run to the Quarter Final here. The numbers have made for tough reading with the Medjedovic serve being attacked and the pick here is that Yannick Hanfmann has enough to win and cover this line set.

MY PICKS: Yannick Hanfmann - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Juan Pablo Varillas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 0.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-10, - 3.26 Units (38 Units Staked, - 8.58% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 19th)

It felt like deja vu on Tuesday- I swear I lived the exact same day when it came to the Tennis Picks back in April when the Madrid Masters took place.

Once again I have fallen foul of a truly miserable day when seemingly anything that could conspire to go wrong would go wrong.

There is no doubt in my mind that Mikael Ymer's eighteen month suspension, which was announced before brother Elias entered the court in Bastad, had an affect on the performance of the other Ymer on the Tour.

However, he was not the better player and ultimately deserved to lose, whether he was unfocused or not.

The Picks that actually grate on me much more are the ones where everything points in one direction, but the exact opposite has happened.

Both Alexander Zverev and Tomas Martin Etcheverry were on the wrong end of the very fine margins as they failed to cover to my absolute irritation- let's face facts, if you're creating a lot more Break Points than your opponent, you are clearly doing something right on the court, but both of those players played those big points incredibly poorly.

Alexander Zverev had fifteen Break Points compared to his opponent's six in the match... But Zverev broke four times and lost serve three times.

In the first two sets Tomas Martin Etcheverry played, he had seven Break Points and gave up two... Yep, you've figured it out, Etcheverry broke once and his opponent managed to break twice!

So between those two players selected, they played thirty Break Points and won eight of those!! On the return of serve, Zverev and Etcheverry created twenty-two Break Points and won five of those key points.

That is quite something when you think about it.

After a really solid first half of the year, this is the second day outside of a Grand Slam that has given me a thumping, but it would be a lot more concerning if Picks were being dominated. Ultimately both of those matches could be played again and if the same number of Break Points were played, the likes of Zverev and Etcheverry would win say half of those and in all likelihood would have both had a serious case for the win and cover.

This is the main reason I have not lost faith in the way Picks are being identified, but it would be nice to have a strong end to this week after the debacle of Tuesday. It won't be easy if these margins continue to test the patience, but being patient is the key in a long season when you have to accept some ups and downs.

Over the last month it does feel like we have been on a considerable dip, but I would accept seeing my Picks dominate the Break Point count knowing that the numbers should even out.

Zizou Bergs - 1.5 games v Jurij Rodionov: Both of these players have come through the Qualifiers in Gstaad, although it does feel like Zizou Bergs has played the better players to reach the Second Round here.

In saying that, confidence can be built by dismissing players in the manner that Jurij Rodionov has done and he will need to serve well to win this match.

Over the course of the season and in recent years, you would have to give Bergs the edge in clay court performances compared with the Austrian. His serve has been slightly more effective, while Zizou Bergs has proved to be the superior return player on the two in 2023.

The three previous meetings between the players have all been on grass courts, but you might have felt those courts would have suited Jurij Rodionov more than Zizou Bergs. Last month they split two grass court matches so Bergs will be confident he has the tennis to win this match, especially on the red dirt where he has tended to do his best work over the last twelve months.

Conditions in Gstaad tend to make this a faster clay court, which will aid Rodionov, but Zizou Bergs can get the better of him to reach this ATP Quarter Final with the expectation that the Belgian can produce the stronger return numbers on the day.

Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: He won the title in Eastbourne in the week before Wimbledon began, but Francisco Cerundolo was not able to keep the grass court successes going as he was dumped out in the Second Round.

Over the last eighteen months, the Argentine has been one of the most improved players on the Tour and last summer he was able to win the title in Bastad before reaching the Semi Final at Hamburg.

Things didn't really go to plan for Francisco Cerundolo after that Semi Final run so he has very little to defend in terms of Ranking points over the next few months. First he has to try and defend the title he won here and you have to believe Cerundolo will be motivated to have a good run in the European clay court events being played.

A bye through to the Second Round means Francisco Cerundolo is playing his first match this week and he is taking on young Frenchman Luca Van Assche who has flashed potential as he grows onto the Tour. A First Round win means Van Assche should be ready to deal with the conditions in Bastad, although he has yet to have a really big defining win in his young career.

Only one top 50 Ranking win on any surface backs up that perception of Luca Van Assche, but he should have some successes in this one against an opponent who is not going to blow you away behind his serve. However, Van Assche will have difficulties in containing the Francisco Cerundolo return game and that is effectively expected to make the difference in this Second Round match.

Luca Van Assche did play well enough to take a set from Novak Djokovic on the clay courts in April, but he was worn down over three sets in that match and Cerundolo should be able to something similar in this encounter.

MY PICKS: Zizou Bergs - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Federico Coria - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Kaja Juvan - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sara Sorribes Tormo - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kevin Anderson @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

John Isner @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-5, - 8.40 Units (12 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 21st)

The weather in London reached ridiculous heights on Tuesday and it certainly meant I did not want to be on a laptop or computer any longer than I needed to be.

After the day for the Tennis Picks, it was easy for me to take a day off to recover.

Bad luck seemed to be flying all over the place over the first couple of days of this week and I needed the mental break of a day off just to cool down (mentally and physically).

What a day- I will make no excuses for the Cristian Garin and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman picks- but I have struggled to accept some of the other selections and the way in which they were undone.

Laslo Djere won his first set 6-1 and was up 4-2 in the second set having held onto serve all the way at that point of the match, but somehow was beaten 6-1, 6-7, 3-6.

Thiago Monteiro played poorly, but did have his chances in the second set which would have seen him cover.

Fabio Fognini was leading 6-3 after set one and looked to have momentum having recovered from a break down in the second set before once again losing focus.

Jaume Munar won the first set with a double break, but lost the second having dropped serve twice more than his opponent and then waited until the cover was impossible before winning four games in a row to secure the match.

And worst of all, Marc-Andrea Huesler who led 7-6, 5-4, 40/0 on serve and having not faced a Break Point in the match... Amazingly he failed to serve it out and ultimately lost the match.

Honestly it is tough to take a day like that when so many seemed to blow strong positions and it was frustrating to say the least.

While it likely means a losing week, I am expecting much better through the remainder of this week and month to back up what had been a solid grass court season.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: These two players met in the Quarter Final in Umag twelve months ago and both were Seeded.

Back then Filip Krajinovic was the Number 3 Seed, but Carlos Alcaraz was the Number 7 Seed and Number 73 in the World Rankings... Now he is playing in Hamburg as the top Seed in the draw and the World Number 6 to underline the kind of progress that Alcaraz has made on the Tour.

Earlier this season he was playing like the World Number 1 and it was telling that so many were tipping Carlos Alcaraz to truly announce himself to a wider public by winning his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros. Ultimately he was narrowly beaten in the Quarter Final, but Carlos Alcaraz will be someone to watch out for at the US Open next month and especially if he can produce some confidence boosting tennis in the build towards that event.

The Spaniard is a confident hard court player, but the tournament in Hamburg will help build the Ranking, while Carlos Alcaraz has made it clear that his main ambition for the season is making sure he is playing in his first ATP Finals. He is well on course for that and I think Carlos Alcaraz will be all the better for the challenging win in the First Round having produced some of the best clay court numbers of any player on the Tour in 2022.

The Quarter Final win over Filip Krajinovic in Umag was far from easy last season, but Carlos Alcaraz has moved past the Serb who is an inconsistent clay court player. Filip Krajinovic had a solid win over Sebastian Baez in the First Round, but the latter had a deep run in Bastad and I think that ultimately made the difference in the match.

I do think this is going to be a much tougher match for Krajinovic who has not really returned as well as he would have liked on the clay courts with breaks in just 18% of return games played. Filip Krajinovic will likely feel the pressure on his own serve against a player like Carlos Alcaraz who wins plenty of return points and who has broken in 33% of return games played on this surface this season.

Carlos Alcaraz has improved on the Tour mainly because of his serve and I expect a much better performance on this side of his tennis than we saw in the First Round. He has been winning 65% of service points behind his serve on the clay courts and I think that will also build the pressure on Filip Krajinovic and to a higher extent than when they met last season.

It is a big spread to cover, but I do think Carlos Alcaraz will be much better than he was in the First Round and he has the return game to cover the mark that has been set.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Bernarda Pera - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 19th)

The hot weather sweeping across Europe had an impact in the early matches at the three stops taken in by the ATP and WTA Tours and there is another challenging day ahead for the players getting into First and Second Round action.

Wet weather is expected later in the week and the cooler conditions will benefit all as the events in Hamburg, Gstaad and Palermo continue.

Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: After snapping a long losing run to Fabio Fognini when these two players last met in 2019, Aljaz Bedene was back in a familiar position in Belgrade earlier this season.

Once again Fabio Fognini got the better of Bedene to extend his dominance of the head to head between the players and they are meeting on the clay courts again, this time in the First Round in Hamburg. All but one of their previous ten matches have been played on the clay courts and Fabio Fognini leads the Aljaz Bedene 8-1 as these two veterans of the Tour meet with some important Ranking points on the line.

The two players are slipping down the World Rankings and further drops, or the end of the Protected Ranking in Aljaz Bedene's case, will mean having to Qualify for some of the bigger tournaments on the Tour. I don't really envision either wanting to do that long-term and so it is important to pick up some Ranking points in the summer clay court swing before the majority of players head to North America to begin preparation for the US Open.

We have already seen the signs of the pressure that comes with having to Qualify for main draws last week when Fabio Fognini was beaten in the final Round of Qualifying for Bastad. He did eventually make the main draw as a Lucky Loser, but was beaten in the First Round and the Italian is clearly a player that has seen his better days.

His numbers back that up, but Aljaz Bedene has had an even more difficult season on the red dirt and he has a 3-7 record overall in 2022. The early defeat at Wimbledon under a Protected Ranking means the Slovenian has not played for three weeks now and I do think he is vulnerable in this match up even when at his best.

Fabio Fognini has a vulnerable serve on this surface, but his return game has proven to be a big problem for Aljaz Bedene to deal with. It has meant that Bedene has broken in 25% of the return games against Fognini on the clay compared with the 33% mark produced by the Italian and that is a significant edge.

It ended up being a very comfortable win for Fabio Fognini when these two met in Belgrade in April, but this one is likely to be a big tighter considering the lack of confidence that Fognini is seemingly playing with. Even then, the Italian should have the tennis to break down the Aljaz Bedene game and I think he will eventually be able to do enough to cover what is a relatively wide spread for a best of three set match.

Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: There have been a number of big name players that have missed significant time on the Tour due to injury and who have returned in 2022 looking to rediscover their best competitive form. The biggest is Dominic Thiem who has finally gotten back into something of a winning habit over the last couple of weeks, but don't underestimate the kind of talent that Borna Coric has and the hope is he can finally begin to fulfil that.

He reached a career high of Number 12 in the World Rankings, while Borna Coric looked to have the tennis that could make him very effective on all surfaces. At 25 years old, the Croatian could still have a very bright future, but the long layoff has left him vulnerable in 2022 and he has only won two of the eight matches played on the main Tour since returning.

With no World Ranking points on offer, I am perhaps not that surprised that Borna Coric decided to skip Wimbledon and instead play a couple of Challenger events on the clay courts. The Croatian will hold a Protected Ranking for now, but Borna Coric is currently outside the top 150 in the World Rankings and it is really important for him to pick up some momentum and plenty of wins to avoid having to play those smaller events more regularly.

It was a positive month for Borna Coric with a Quarter Final run in Perugia and then winning the title in Parma, but he returned with a First Round loss in a Challenger event last week and he may have hoped for a much better draw here in Hamburg. He has already been beaten by Laslo Djere once this season and the latter also holds a 2-0 head to head advantage over Borna Coric with both wins being earned on the clay courts.

Laslo Djere has become a very steady, consistent player on the clay courts, although he doesn't seem to have the extra gear to really beat the best players on the Tour. He has been able to challenge them on this surface and he put together a decent tournament in Bastad last week before losing to Andrey Rublev in the Quarter Final.

The numbers remain solid and Laslo Djere will feel he can get a little more from his return game than Borna Coric in this First Round match to make all of the difference in the outcome of it. When they met in Rome in May, the scoreboard suggests it was an easy enough win for Djere, but the Serb will be the first to admit that he played the big points much more efficiently than Borna Coric and that is going to have to be the case when they meet in Hamburg too.

There hasn't been much between these players in the two previous clay court matches, but Laslo Djere has been able to exert enough pressure to see Borna Coric crack. At this stage of their careers, I think that is still the case for Djere as Borna Coric continues his recovery to the level he was producing a couple of years ago, and I think the higher Ranked player will make it a hat-trick of victories over this opponent on the red dirt.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Richard Gasquet @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marc-Andrea Huesler - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-3, - 1.14 Units (12 Units Staked, - 9.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 18th)

A strong grass court season for the Tennis Picks was not quite signed off with the momentum I would have wanted, but it was a positive set of results over the month.

Like many, I have taken a week off since Wimbledon was concluded just to take a short break in what is always a very long season.

The remainder of this month will see some clay court tournaments played as both Tours see some bigger names on the courts who are trying to pick up some vital Ranking points, while the end of the month will be the beginning of the run towards the US Open.

Before that there are some big tournaments to be played and the next three weeks will be about managing the Tennis Picks and avoiding any really poor days.

Pedro Martinez - 2.5 games v Carlos Taberner: A heat wave has hit Europe and temperatures have been soaring across the continent- things won't be any different in Gstaad on Monday when this ATP tournament gets underway with main draw action.

Two Spanish players will be meeting and you do have to expect both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner to be used to playing in hot conditions, although it is a challenge for two players who have not been in the best form to ignore the difficult temperatures being faced by players.

Despite being comfortable clay courters, this has not been a season to write home about for either Pedro Martinez or Carlos Taberner. The former has won one of his last eight clay court matches going back to early April, while Carlos Taberner has won two of his last eight matches and neither has produced very strong clay court numbers in 2022.

I think both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner are going to have to work hard to protect serve in this match, while Taberner has at least had an edge with his return numbers. He looks to be playing the big points much better than Pedro Martinez on the clay in 2022, but this has regularly been a bad match up for Carlos Taberner and his own personal form is not going to be inspiring a lot of confidence.

The numbers against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts in 2022 are very similar, but Pedro Martinez may be coming into a match with a slight mental edge.

Ending his losing run on the clay in his last tournament will have been a boost for Pedro Martinez, while he has won nine of eleven previous matches against Carlos Taberner, including each of the last three. Those three matches have been played since 2019 and are perhaps the most relevant to this one, although the last time Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner played one another is ten months ago.

In those last three matches, Martinez has had a huge edge in the serving numbers and has managed to win 51% of return points against the Carlos Taberner serve, which has led to breaks in 51% of return games played.

I will admit that it is not easy to trust someone who has gotten so used to losing as Pedro Martinez has, but he has enjoyed this match up and that is expected to give him more confidence than he may have had against other opponents. The heat could be a problem for both players, but I think Pedro Martinez will be able to produce enough quality on the return to edge past his compatriot and earn a spot in the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Pedro Martinez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sara Sorribes Tormo - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 27th)

Friday has been a long day which means I am ready to get on with the selections from the Semi Final matches.

Those can be seen below after what was a positive day to begin to put a better slant on what has been a difficult week for the Tennis Picks.


Andrey Rublev v Pablo Carreno Busta: The Semi Final in Hamburg may not have been one that too many would have tipped up at the start of this ATP 500 event, but both Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta deserve their place in the final four. Both players have knocked off a couple of Seeded players in their run to the Semi Final, but Andrey Rublev's win over Dominic Thiem looks the best either player has produced.

In saying that, Pablo Carreno Busta will be feeling very good about his level of performances which have helped him get past both Jan-Lennard Struff and Fabio Fognini in the last two matches. The Spaniard made life a little difficult for himself in the win over Fognini having failed to take sixteen break points, but he came through a final set tie-breaker and the only downside is that there is a potential fatigue worry for him ahead of this Semi Final.

Part of the problem for Carreno Busta is that his serve is still not firing as well as he would like which means having to work hard to recover deficits in sets. He did manage to do that in set two and set three of the win over Fabio Fognini in the Quarter Final and also in the second set of his win over Jan-Lennard Struff, but that does mean he is giving up more emotionally and physically than he perhaps would like.

In this tournament Pablo Carreno Busta has won 60% of points behind serve which has led to 74% of his service games being held. The reason he has managed to turn matches around is because the Spaniard has won 45% of return points played, which has led to breaks in 37% of return games, but now he has to deal with the Andrey Rublev serve which has been about as effective as it can be on the clay courts with 67% of points won behind that shot.

Where Pablo Carreno Busta has been returning much better over the last week than in 2019 in general, Andrey Rublev has been a little more solid behind serve than his overall numbers. The Russian has broken in 29% of return games and he has played well enough to believe he can challenge the Pablo Carreno Busta serve which has not been firing at a high level.

These two players have not played since 2015, but Andrey Rublev won both matches between them on the Tour. He has been the superior server in those matches and I believe it is going to be the serving that can see the youngster surprisingly make his way through to the Final in Hamburg.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka-Alex De Minaur Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.38 Units (28 Units Staked, - 4.93% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 26th)

It has been the kind of week where a player serves for the match, and the cover, but fails to do that and misses out by one game.

At the time of writing the final Tennis Pick from Thursday has yet to be played. I will update the weekly totals on Friday morning, but the selections from Friday Quarter Final matches can be seen below.

Any selections from Atlanta will be added once the full Quarter Final markets have been formulated.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Twelve months ago Dominic Thiem was beaten in the Quarter Final of the Hamburg Open and he is looking to move at least one step further in 2019. The Number 1 Seed is the big favourite to beat Andrey Rublev on Friday, but Dominic Thiem will know he will need to be a lot more effective when it comes to the break points if he is going to make this match go his way.

On the face of things you would make the Austrian a big favourite anyway when you consider Rublev's history on the clay courts, but the young Russian has been in good form so far this week.

Both of his wins have been solid as Rublev has got his eye in when it comes to the return of serve. This has been a relatively strong part of his game anyway, but Rublev has to be pleased with his run at Hamburg having won 43% of return points and breaking serve in 30% of return games played.

The serve is perhaps not as strong as Rublev would like, but he has won 65% of points played behind that shot. That is a few clicks higher than his overall clay court numbers in 2019, but Rublev has still had a few issues getting through all of his service games with holds in 76% of service games played this week despite the improvement as far as points won behind serve are concerned.

Now he has to play someone like Dominic Thiem who is at his most comfortable when it comes to playing tennis on the clay courts. Two wins over Pablo Cuevas and Marton Fucsovics has seen Thiem win all four wins sets played, and his serve has been a potent weapon with 95% of service holds secured in those victories.

Dominic Thiem was not as effective on the break points as much as he would have liked in the Second Round win over Fucsovics, but he has still broken in 26% of return games played. He has been able to put enough pressure on the return of serve to break his opponent's down, but Thiem will have to be a little more productive at the big points to ensure this is not another tough battle.

These two players met in Monte Carlo eighteen months ago and it was a close, competitive match between the players on the clay courts. Dominic Thiem edged that one, but he can make this a little more simple as long as he can take a couple more of the break points in this match than he has in his last couple of matches.


Pablo Carreno Busta v Fabio Fognini: Both Pablo Carreno Busta and Fabio Fognini are very comfortable playing on the clay courts and they meet for a place in the Semi Final of Hamburg on Friday. Both players have won all four sets they have played in the first two Rounds so confidence should not be a big factor, although Carreno Busta may have the mental edge.

The Spaniard has won all six previous matches against Fabio Fognini and that includes three wins on the clay courts, although they have not played on this surface since 2017. Fabio Fognini has had slightly better fortunes playing Carreno Busta on the clay compared to their overall record, but the latter has had the edge with 77% of service games held compared with Fognini's 65%.

Pablo Carreno Busta has had a slight edge on the service points won too, which won't be a surprise considering those hold numbers, and I think mentally he may have the advantage in this one.

It does have to be said that Pablo Carreno Busta's return of serve has been very important for him in his two wins this week and he is playing at a significantly higher level than what he has managed in 2019 on this surface overall. This week he has won 44% of return points and broken in 35% of return games which is a significant improvement on his 2018 and 2019 numbers on the surface.

Maintaining that level will obviously be a challenge for Carreno Busta considering the numbers set in the last eighteen months, but he will be playing with some belief considering the success he has had against Fognini.

The Italian has had some strong runs on the clay in 2019, but he has been inconsistent with his level of play. This week it looks like we have got Fabio Fognini in some of his better form with 85% of service games held and breaks of serve in 33% of return games played. The serve has been a slight weakness for Fabio Fognini in general though and I expect Carreno Busta to challenge him in that regards.

Both players will be full of belief that their level can see off the other, but I am favouring Carreno Busta thanks to the head to head advantage and his general play on the clay courts. This week we have seen both players win their matches with some relative comfort, but I think Carreno Busta deserves the credit for having the best win of the two having seen off Jan-Lennard Struff in the Second Round.

At close to pick 'em prices, I will back Pablo Carreno Busta here.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-6, - 4.94 Units (20 Units Staked, - 24.70% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 23rd)

It wasn't the best start to the week with the Tennis Picks going 1-2 on Monday.

Tuesday is a much busier day with a lot of First Round matches scheduled to be played across the five tournaments taking place, but only one match has stood out and made it into my selections.

I am sure there will be more options as the tournaments move into the Second Round on Wednesday and Thursday, but hopefully the Pick below can get the season moving back towards a positive number.


Tommy Robredo - 1.5 games v Gian Marco Moroni: One of these players is a veteran who is surprisingly still competing on the Tour having long exited the top 100 of the World Rankings, while the other is finding his way and hoping to use his two Qualifying wins to earn some vital Ranking points in the week ahead.

Tommy Robredo has seen his best days long past by, but he still seems keen to compete on the Tour. These days the majority of the time is spent on the Challenger Tour and Robredo has won a couple of titles on the clay over the last six weeks that will give him plenty of confidence to take into this tournament.

The Spaniard is hoping to get into a position to once again move into the top 100 of the World Rankings and have all the benefits that come with that including direct entry into the Grand Slam events. Over the last eighteen months Robredo has been pretty consistent as far as his return of serve goes and the better performance behind his own serve has helped Robredo put a number of wins together.

He is facing a youngster in Gian Marco Moroni who should be familiar to Robredo as the latter won both matches against him in 2018. Both came on the clay courts and it was Robredo's serve that proved to be a difference maker for him, while Moroni has not been able to have the same consistent success when it comes to his own return of serve.

It has to be said that the Italian doesn't have bad numbers on the clay courts in 2019 and the two wins in Gstaad will certainly help his mindset for this match. However Moroni has not served as effectively as he did in 2018 with a slight drop in percentage of points won leading to a few more dropped games.

This is a part of his game that Robredo should be able to challenge and I do think he has the edge when it comes to the serve. As a veteran it can be difficult to trust him to have the consistency to see off a younger opponent, especially with the issues Robredo has had over the last few years.

However his matches with Moroni will give him confidence and breaking serve in 47% of return games while holding in 78% of his own service games suggests Robredo doesn't mind this match up. I do think there is enough here to want to back Tommy Robredo to come through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Tommy Robredo - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.18 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 22nd)

Last week was a decent one with the Tennis Picks producing a profit from the three days of selections being made.

This week we move onto a new week with another five tournaments being played including a big ATP 500 event in Hamburg on the clay courts there. The US Open hard court series begins this week too with the first of those events being played on the ATP Tour in Atlanta and the run to the US Open really does begin from here.

Over the next month we have some huge events in Washington, Canada, Cincinnati before the final Grand Slam of the 2019 season begins. The top names on the ATP Tour won't be back until the Masters tournaments next month, but the WTA Tour also has a significant stop in San Jose which is going to bring together a strong line up.


The First Round matches begin at the five tournaments on Monday and I have a couple of selections from those scheduled which can be read below.

I have also updated the season totals which are at the bottom of this thread.


Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: It might be a tournament played on home soil, but Philipp Kohlschreiber has rarely been able to make the impact that he would have liked in Hamburg. His 15-14 record here is average at best, although his better results have come since the tournament lost Masters status and moved to July after Wimbledon was played.

Last year he was beaten in the First Round in Hamburg, but Kohlschreiber has a decent chance to put a win on the board when he faces Marton Fucsovics on Monday. I like the latter as a player who is getting the best out of his potential, but at this stage of their careers it still feels like Kohlschreiber is the superior player on the clay courts.

The home player has a winning record on the clay courts in 2019, while Fucsovics is only 5-7 on the surface. Part of the reason for the negative record for Fucsovics has been the struggles on the serve with less than 60% of points won behind that shot on the clay courts in 2019. It means there is plenty of pressure on him to find the breaks of serve to remain competitive and, while he has been successful to some extent doing that, it is a different kind of task against someone like Kohlschreiber.

Philipp Kohlschreiber has won 60% of points played behind serve, but he has been strong enough to hold in 81% of service games played on the surface compared with Marton Fucsovics' number of 72%. The Kohlschreiber return has perhaps been a weakening part of his game, but he has still managed to break serve in 24% of return games compared with Fucsovics being at 22% and I do think the German can use his superior serve to earn the victory in this one.

The layers do think this will be a close match and I tend to think that is down to the decline we have seen from Kohlschreiber over the last few years. He is still capable of winning matches like this one, but the performances are more inconsistent these days and that does make this a slightly risky selection.

However the numbers are pointing to the narrow favourite and he has had a couple of solid runs in Hamburg since the tournament was moved to July. The tournament is not as familiar to Fucsovics as it is to Kohlschreiber and the Hungarian was beaten in the First Round twelve months ago in his only other appearance in Hamburg.

With Kohlschreiber holding a slight edge on both serve and return, I will back him to earn the win in this First Round match and also cover the handicap set for it.


Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 games v Rudolf Molleker: For the majority of his career Leonardo Mayer has been very comfortable on the clay courts and this remains the favourite surface of the Argentinian. His best event may be the ATP tournament in Hamburg having produced significant results in his previous visits to Germany and Mayer has a number of Ranking points to defend again in 2019.

Leonardo Mayer lost his first match here in 2013, but since then he has won the title in 2014 followed by another First Round exit in 2016. The last two years has seen Mayer reach the Final in both appearances in Hamburg and he has won the title once more and Mayer's numbers at this tournament are significantly higher than his overall career on the clay to underline the point about this perhaps being his favoured event.

It has not been a great season for Mayer, but he was a Quarter Finalist in Umag last week which may give him a boost going into this event. The service numbers have remained strong, but the Argentinian has struggled when it comes to the return of serve with breaks of serve in only 16% of return games played on the clay courts.

Despite winning a higher percentage of return points compared with 2018, the break percentage is somewhat down for Mayer and is an area he will want to improve if he is going to have another strong run in Hamburg. He may have an opportunity to do that in this First Round match against Rudolf Molleker who has been given a Wild Card into his home tournament.

The 18 year old is yet to make a real breakthrough on the ATP Tour and Molleker has yet to crack into the top 100 of the World Rankings. It has been difficult for Molleker to really compete in his main Tour matches when you think he has won less than 60% of points on serve and broken in just 12% of return games in the three matches played on the clay courts at this level in 2019.

He has found more joy in the Challenger matches he has played, but Molleker is going to be given a thorough examination from the veteran Leonardo Mayer. The youngster is going to have to reach a level he has yet to show in his career to compete with Mayer and I would back the veteran to win this one with at least a break more in each set played.

It is a big handicap when you think of the overall performances produced by Leonardo Mayer, but the opponent and the tournament look to give him every chance of doing that.

MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thomas Fabbiano - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 116.23 Units (1353 Units Staked, + 8.59% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 25th)

Much like last week, it has been a very good start to the week but I am hoping I am able to maintain the success much better than I was able to do a few days ago.

On Wednesday we move into the Second Round of the matches to be played at ATP Atlanta, ATP Gstaad, ATP Hamburg as well as the two WTA events being played this week. My Tennis Picks are focusing on the men's tournaments taking place because of the better fields that have come together, although I imagine the WTA Moscow event will present some opportunities later in the week as the tournament reaches the business end.

Any Picks from Atlanta will be added to this thread at some point on Wednesday, but for now the three selections come from Gstaad and Hamburg.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: One of the big concerns for an inconsistent player like Fernando Verdasco has to be the long match he had to come through in the First Round in Hamburg. He spent around 40 minutes longer on the court than his opponent in this Second Round match, although it should be noted that Thiago Monteiro is in the draw as a Lucky Loser having won one and lost one Qualifier to get into the main draw.

The majority of his time is spent on the clay courts which makes Monteiro dangerous, but the best results he has tended to produce on the main Tour have come on the South American clay courts. His win over Gilles Simon in the First Round is a solid one which has to be respected, but Verdasco has already beaten the Brazilian very comfortably in 2018.

Verdasco had a very good win over Dusan Lajovic but his performances are becoming more and more erratic as the veteran reaches the latter stage of his career.

To be fair to Verdasco his numbers have been pretty strong in 2018 on the clay courts and they will certainly give him a chance to beat Monteiro for a second time on this surface. Thiago Monteiro has played well enough on the clay courts, but he has struggled with his return of serve and I think that could be a difference maker if Verdasco is not feeling too much tiredness after a long week in Bastad and a tough First Round match.

The struggles on the return of serve have been particularly evident when Monteiro has played on the main Tour and I do give Verdasco enough of an edge to cover this number. While his return of serve has only produced a 29% break rate in 2018, Verdasco has actually won more points on the return of serve this season than he has in previous years and I think it is the Spaniard who will have the majority of break points in this one.

It is always difficult to know what Verdasco will turn up to the court, but he dominated Monteiro when they met on the clay courts in South America earlier this season. If he serves as he has for much of the season on the clay courts Verdasco can do enough to cover this number in a victory over Monteiro.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: This is actually a pretty big number for Gael Monfils to cover when you think he is playing the defending Champion in Hamburg and has had close matches against Leonardo Mayer in the past.

In fact they played one another on the clay courts earlier this season and Monfils was a narrow winner, while he has also needed three sets to win his First Round match. Compare that to Mayer who has had a day of rest between his First Round match and this one and also was a strong winner in his match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

The fact Monfils is 3-0 against Mayer will help the confidence in this one and Mayer has struggled to really put the wins together on the clay courts in 2018. The title win in Hamburg will make Mayer feel better in these surroundings and he will point out the fact that Monfils was perhaps fortunate to beat Marco Cecchinato in the First Round.

The Frenchman has to be very pleased with that win when you think of how well Cecchinato has played on the clay in 2018. However he did win the title in Umag last week which may have meant the Italian was lacking something in the tank to beat Monfils.

The reason I do like Monfils is that he has had plenty of success on the clay courts in the past and the numbers are very similar to what Leonardo Mayer has produced. That is where the head to head could prove to be the difference in the critical moments of this match and I will look for Gael Monfils to end Mayer's defence of the title with a strong looking win.


Roberto Carballes Baena - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: This looks like it has all the makings of a very close Second Round match with the two players producing very similar numbers on the clay courts.

Both Carballes Baena and Taro Daniel have had good First Round wins too, but the difference could come from a mental point of view. It is the Spaniard who has won all five previous matches between himself and Daniel and all but one of those have been on the clay courts albeit the last of those was a couple of years ago.

There has been an improvement in both players since they last met in 2016 but I am not sure you can completely ignore the fact that Daniel has won just a single set between these players.

In 2018 both have served pretty well and also broke serve at around the same number, although Carballes Baena may just have a slight edge all around. Adding that to the head to head and I think the Spaniard can be backed in what is considered a close match in Gstaad.

It is Taro Daniel who has had the better winning percentage on the clay courts, but I think Carballas Baena is going to be the one moving through to the Quarter Final and I will back him to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.08 Units (8 Units Staked, + 38.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 24th)

There may be a lot of First Round matches to be played across the five tournaments being played this week, but finding angles to play have been far from straight forward.

I expect to see more potential plays coming up as the tournaments get into the Second Round and beyond, but for Tuesday I have just a couple of Picks and both come from the same ATP Gstaad event.

Time constraints mean I will add the two Picks from the Tuesday matches below.


MY PICKS: Denis Istomin + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 23rd)

The run to the US Open officially begins this week when the ATP Tour moves to Atlanta, but there are some big tournaments in Europe too on the clay courts.

There is one ATP 500 event in Hamburg on the clay courts which is a big chance for players who love that surface to pick up some big Ranking points, while another ATP 250 event is played in Gstaad in another clay court event.

The main WTA tournament is played in Moscow on the clay too.

Once again the main names on the Tour are having another week getting some rest and recuperation from their exploits at Wimbledon but that gives the chance for the likes of Marco Cecchinato, Steve Johnson, Fabio Fognini, Alize Cornet and Anastasija Sevastova to build on title wins last week and earn more Ranking points.

Players of that ilk will be hoping to do that this week and my first couple of Tennis Picks from the week can be found below.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 1.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: Two Spanish players meet in the First Round of the ATP Gstaad tournament on the clay courts on Monday. Out of the two players it is Roberto Carballes Baena who is the more comfortable on the surface considering he spends the majority of his time on the clay courts, but Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has been good enough to put together plenty of wins on this surface too.

Both players have actually produced very similar numbers on the clay courts in 2018 with both Garcia-Lopez and Carballes Baena winning around 62% of points behind the serve and around 40% of the returning points. It won't surprise anyone that they have similar hold and break percentages on the clay courts too, although Garcia-Lopez has tended to play at the higher level.

There isn't going to be much between the two players on the day, but Garcia-Lopez could have the edge thanks to the superior level of competition he tends to play against on a more consistent time on the Tour compared with his compatriot.

It feels like a match that is going to see both players have plenty of opportunities to break serve and I am leaning towards Garcia-Lopez to have the edge even though he was beaten by Carballes Baena when they met in a clay court Final on the Challenger Tour in 2017.

On that day Carballes Baena was something of a fortunate winner and I think Garcia-Lopez can earn a measure of revenge with a win in this First Round match. You do have to be a little concerned that this is the first match back on the clay for Garcia-Lopez since the French Open compared with Carballes Baena who was beaten in the First Round in Bastad last week. Carballes Baena also spent a month playing clay court Challenger events rather than any grass tennis so his familiarity with the surface could give him the chance to earn the upset.

However I am not sure Carballes Baena will have the majority of the break points in this one and I like Garcia-Lopez to win and cover if he takes the chances that come his way.


Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Donald Young: 2018 has been a tremendously poor year for Donald Young and his World Ranking has slipped outside the top 200. It means he will be looking for some Wild Cards to enter events during the North American hard court swing as he may be short of even entering the Qualifying for some of the Masters events coming up and confidence has to be incredibly low.

The overall record over the last twelve months has been very poor, but Young's 2018 record has seen him win just one of the nine matches played on the hard courts. It would be great to say that Young has just had some really difficult draws in those defeats, but that has not always been the case and his numbers have been very poor too.

Those have been particularly poor when it comes to the serve as Young's numbers have slipped from the standards he has set for himself in recent years on the hard courts. He is struggling to hold serve, although facing up against Ivo Karlovic may help with a long known fact the big serving Croatian is a limited returner.

While it has been a tough year for Young, Ivo Karlovic will no doubt feel his own time on the tennis court at the top level is coming to a close. The serve remains a potent weapon for Karlovic, but he is under more pressure to make sure he looks after that side of his game with the return numbers showing even more of a decline.

In each of the last four seasons his percentage of return points won have been in decline and no one should be surprised to see that his break percentage has also declined. Karlovic has broken just under 6% of the time on the hard courts in 2018 which makes it hard to trust him, but he has a strong record against Donald Young and is facing a player who is very short of confidence.

I am anticipating the Karlovic serve putting plenty of mental pressure on Young who has been known for throwing away service games on this surface in 2018. Doing that against Karlovic would be fatal in a set and I think Young will have a hard time getting the better of the Croatian in this one.

Karlovic has not exactly pulled up trees which makes it hard to trust him, but I think he can win this match and cover the small handicap.

MY PICKS: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 31.12 Units (1209 Units Staked, + 2.57% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 19th)

The tournaments continue in the five destinations this week and we are already getting down to the final few days of the events which have come hot on the heels of the end of the third Grand Slam of the season.

While the majority of those players expecting to challenge at the US Open will be resting up and recharging the batteries, these weeks are very important to those players down the World Rankings with the open looking draws giving them a chance to pick up vital Ranking points.

Like Wednesday, I will add those Tennis Picks from the ATP Newport event on Thursday, but the way the Second Round is split in two at the majority of events means the markets are available for the other four tournaments and the matches scheduled to be played on Thursday.

This has been a tough week so I've not had a lot of time. While I have a full analysis of one of the matches, I am adding the other Tennis Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Patty Schnyder: Once upon a time Patty Schnyder was a top ten Ranked player on the WTA Tour but she decided to retire in 2011 and didn't return to the Tour until 2015. Her comeback has unsurprisingly not reached the kind of levels that Kim Clijsters did simply because Schnyder was already well into her mid 30s when she returned to the Tour.

The love for the game has kept Schnyder going when others may have decided it was not worth battling on the ITF Tour and the lower level events. Wins at that level has helped Schnyder get back into the top 200 of the World Rankings and she is still trending in a positive direction, although failures to Qualify for the Grand Slam events at the Australian Open and Wimbledon show Schnyder is still not quite up to the level she would like.

This is only the seventh match Schnyder will have played on the main Tour on the clay courts since returning from retirement and a player like Sam Stosur should be too good for her.

Stosur is another veteran of the Tour these days and her best days are clearly behind her, but she remains very competitive on the clay courts. The Australian dominated another older player in Francesca Schiavone in the First Round and her numbers have to be put into context compared with Schnyder's simply because of the differing levels they have been operating at.

While only holding an 8-6 record on the clay courts in 2018, there haven't been too many bad losses for Stosur as she continues to see off those opponents she would expect to beat. There has been a decline in the return numbers which will be of concern when you think of the handicap number in this one, but Stosur will put Schnyder under pressure thanks to a serve that remains very good.

It won't always be easy for Stosur, but I do think she can win this match and she can cover a big number.

MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.48 Units (24 Units Staked, + 10.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 29th)

There are some weeks where you just can't seem to catch a break and I have no doubt that this is one of those.

Two more matches had every chance of winning going into the final set on Friday and both went the wrong way meaning almost every pick this week that has been beaten has been beaten in the final set. Winning more points has meant nothing, having the superior numbers overall haven't met anything and to say I have been frustrated is putting it mildly.

While it has been a crappy week in general, it could end on a bright note but I will have more about that in the coming days.

Friday was another busy day which means I am not able to put up a full post, but I will get back to the normal threads either on Saturday, if there are any picks from the Finals being played, or on Sunday for the opening matches of the new tournaments beginning on Monday.


MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yannick Hanfmann + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 24th)

Another week is in the books in the 2017 Tennis season and the final grass court event of the year came to an end in Rhode Island on Sunday.

This week there are five more tournaments being played with three of those on the clay courts and two on the hard courts. One of those takes place in Atlanta where the first of the North American hard court events that counts towards the US Series begins on Monday.

Next week will be an ATP 500 event in Washington before back to back Masters tournaments in Canada and Cincinnati as we will quickly move into the US Open. It will be interesting to see the kind of names that perhaps pull out of the US Open with doubts about both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, while we will all wait to see when Maria Sharapova is going to be back in action who will be needing a Wild Card to enter the US Open main draw.

The news story run by the US Open itself suggests Sharapova will be welcomed into the Qualifiers, which she has the Ranking for, but I'd be surprised if she is given a Wild Card into the main draw. That's for another day though and the focus this week is on the tournaments being played in Atlanta, Bastad, Gstaad, Hamburg and Nanchang.

Last week was a decent one for the picks, although not a really strong one like I would have wanted. A winning week is a winning week, but I am looking to put some momentum behind the picks to head into the bigger tournaments ahead this summer before the US Open gets underway.


Facundo Bagnis v Yannick Hanfmann: Two really impressive wins in the Qualifiers from Yannick Hanfmann has helped him enter the main draw in Gstaad, but I am not sure why he is the favourite to win this match. He is playing a clay court specialist in Facundo Bagnis who is considerably higher up in the World Rankings, but the numbers seem to favour Bagnis too.

There has been a lack of tennis played by Hanfmann at the main ATP level but he has gone 3-2 in those matches this year, 2-1 on the clay courts. That's not bad, but you can't ignore the fact that Hanfmann doesn't play the better players on the Tour regularly, although he may feel this match against Bagnis is more in line with the type of competition he faces.

This year has not been a great one for Bagnis in terms of the results, but his numbers have generally been quite steady despite the wins not coming as frequently as they did in 2016. Hanfmann has been able to look after his serve effectively which makes him dangerous in this one, especially when you see how much the players at the Challenger Tour have had difficulties against him.

The return game hasn't been bad either, but I think Bagnis is more than capable of earning the 'upset' in a match where I may have slightly favoured him to be honest. It will likely be a close match and I do think Hanfmann is capable, but I just wouldn't have him as the favourite and I think Bagnis can do enough to make these odds against quotes count with a victory on Monday.

MY PICKS: Facundo Bagnis @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Season 2017: - 32.36 Units (1460 Units Staked, - 2.22% Yield)

Season 2016: - 5.64 Units (2013 Units Staked, - 0.00% Yield)

Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 24th)

The tennis Tour will be moving on to Canada this week, but first we have to complete the tournaments that have been played over the last seven days. Kitzbuhel came to a close on Saturday, but the other six tournaments will have their Finals played on Sunday and so it will still be a busy day, perhaps busier than a usual Sunday.

After a really poor start to this week, things have turned around over the last few days and I am hoping another strong day will help put a third successful week in a row in the books. It is a slow grind turning around the season, but I am happy to take off the negative piece by piece in what has been a tough 2016 so far to follow a poor ending to 2015 which knocked that season down.


Robin Haase + 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: This has been an important week for Robin Haase as he looks to prevent a slip outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but for now he can concentrate on simply winning another title on the clay. He is a significant underdog against Feliciano Lopez, which has surprised me, and I am happy taking the games with the Dutchman in this one.

It has been a good week for Lopez too who can potentially move back into the top 20 of the World Rankings, although wins over Jan Mertl, Elias Ymer and Dustin Brown is not the most taxing way through to a Final. The clay courts have not really suited Lopez through his career with the way he approaches the game, but Lopez has recorded the most wins in a season on the surface since 2011.

I do think Haase will present the toughest test for Lopez through this week and it can't be ignored that the former has won all three of their previous matches on the clay. Each time Haase has been able to come back from a set down to win the match and he has been serving well enough this week to give Lopez enough issues through this Final.

I have a gut feeling that Haase might actually win the title here, but this could also be an important amount of games for him to be getting in a losing effort. If both players can take a set in this one, Haase can use his big serve to at least keep this very competitive and I will take the games.


Fabio Fognini - 4.5 games v Andrej Martin: This is the first career meeting between Fabio Fognini and Andrej Martin and it might be considered a surprise Final in Umag considering some of the other players in the draw. Fognini is capable of producing really strong form on the clay so his appearance is less of an upset, but Martin has been mainly playing on the Challenger circuit and has some impressive wins under the belt this week.

Perhaps it should not be as much of a surprise as I think it is as Martin did reach the Third Round at the French Open, but some of his losses on the Challenger circuit since then would not have had many rushing him to reach an ATP level Final.

This is going to be a real test for Martin as Fognini looks to be in really good form in Umag. He has looked focused and has been returning well and I think the Italian is going to be a little too good on the day as long as he can maintain his focus.

We can't underestimate how easy it is for Fognini to drop his focus, but I will back the Italian to win his fourth career title and first since 2014 with an impressive 63, 64 victory.


Lauren Davis + 2.5 games v Yanina Wickmayer: Looking at a head to head between players doesn't really give you the full tale of the tape when researching matches. Sometimes a player is performing on a better surface for themselves, while other times the physical effort used in matches also has to be a factor as well as recent form.

Match ups are still important though and it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Lauren Davis has won all three previous matches against Yanina Wickmayer including their two matches in 2016. It has not been a good season for the American overall, but a run to the Final in Washington will have given Davis a chance of getting back into the top 100 of the World Rankings as she moves into what is likely her best time of the season.

Davis doesn't have a lot of points to defend over the next few weeks and she has the game that can extract mistakes from the Wickmayer game. The Belgian does have the power to hammer the Davis serve, although my one issue would be whether she can mentally keep going for the lines as she has been this week.

I can see both players having their opportunities in this one with Wickmayer having the power and Davis the defensive strength which should make it a fascinating match. The mental edge has to be given to Davis considering she has beaten Wickmayer twice already in 2016 and she can make use of the games she is being given after building up some momentum through the week in Washington.

If Wickmayer is firmly on her game, she might be tough to stop, but I will look for the lower Ranked player to keep it tight through to the end even if she doesn't quite have enough to win the title.

MY PICKS: Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Lauren Davis + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 22-15, + 8.08 Units (74 Units Staked, + 10.92% Yield)