Tennis Picks 2022 (July 21st)

The weather in London reached ridiculous heights on Tuesday and it certainly meant I did not want to be on a laptop or computer any longer than I needed to be.

After the day for the Tennis Picks, it was easy for me to take a day off to recover.

Bad luck seemed to be flying all over the place over the first couple of days of this week and I needed the mental break of a day off just to cool down (mentally and physically).

What a day- I will make no excuses for the Cristian Garin and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman picks- but I have struggled to accept some of the other selections and the way in which they were undone.

Laslo Djere won his first set 6-1 and was up 4-2 in the second set having held onto serve all the way at that point of the match, but somehow was beaten 6-1, 6-7, 3-6.

Thiago Monteiro played poorly, but did have his chances in the second set which would have seen him cover.

Fabio Fognini was leading 6-3 after set one and looked to have momentum having recovered from a break down in the second set before once again losing focus.

Jaume Munar won the first set with a double break, but lost the second having dropped serve twice more than his opponent and then waited until the cover was impossible before winning four games in a row to secure the match.

And worst of all, Marc-Andrea Huesler who led 7-6, 5-4, 40/0 on serve and having not faced a Break Point in the match... Amazingly he failed to serve it out and ultimately lost the match.

Honestly it is tough to take a day like that when so many seemed to blow strong positions and it was frustrating to say the least.

While it likely means a losing week, I am expecting much better through the remainder of this week and month to back up what had been a solid grass court season.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: These two players met in the Quarter Final in Umag twelve months ago and both were Seeded.

Back then Filip Krajinovic was the Number 3 Seed, but Carlos Alcaraz was the Number 7 Seed and Number 73 in the World Rankings... Now he is playing in Hamburg as the top Seed in the draw and the World Number 6 to underline the kind of progress that Alcaraz has made on the Tour.

Earlier this season he was playing like the World Number 1 and it was telling that so many were tipping Carlos Alcaraz to truly announce himself to a wider public by winning his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros. Ultimately he was narrowly beaten in the Quarter Final, but Carlos Alcaraz will be someone to watch out for at the US Open next month and especially if he can produce some confidence boosting tennis in the build towards that event.

The Spaniard is a confident hard court player, but the tournament in Hamburg will help build the Ranking, while Carlos Alcaraz has made it clear that his main ambition for the season is making sure he is playing in his first ATP Finals. He is well on course for that and I think Carlos Alcaraz will be all the better for the challenging win in the First Round having produced some of the best clay court numbers of any player on the Tour in 2022.

The Quarter Final win over Filip Krajinovic in Umag was far from easy last season, but Carlos Alcaraz has moved past the Serb who is an inconsistent clay court player. Filip Krajinovic had a solid win over Sebastian Baez in the First Round, but the latter had a deep run in Bastad and I think that ultimately made the difference in the match.

I do think this is going to be a much tougher match for Krajinovic who has not really returned as well as he would have liked on the clay courts with breaks in just 18% of return games played. Filip Krajinovic will likely feel the pressure on his own serve against a player like Carlos Alcaraz who wins plenty of return points and who has broken in 33% of return games played on this surface this season.

Carlos Alcaraz has improved on the Tour mainly because of his serve and I expect a much better performance on this side of his tennis than we saw in the First Round. He has been winning 65% of service points behind his serve on the clay courts and I think that will also build the pressure on Filip Krajinovic and to a higher extent than when they met last season.

It is a big spread to cover, but I do think Carlos Alcaraz will be much better than he was in the First Round and he has the return game to cover the mark that has been set.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Bernarda Pera - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)