On one hand it feels like the third Grand Slam of the 2022 season has just started, but on the other there has been enough drama and rollercoaster matches to know it is a tournament that is down to the final few days.
Quarter Final action will begin on Tuesday and with no more rain delays to get in the way.
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Jannik Sinner: After winning the battle of the 'Next Gen' stars of the ATP Tour, Jannik Sinner will be playing a maiden Quarter Final at Wimbledon. The win over Carlos Alcaraz was impressive, but this is another massive step up for Jannik Sinner who now has to beat the three time defending Wimbledon Champion.
The talent is clear for all to see and there is an excitement about what the future will hold for Jannik Sinner, but you cannot ignore the fact that he has struggled on the grass before this tournament at Wimbledon. He has been good enough to beat some quality opponents on his way to the Quarter Final, but Novak Djokovic is a level above all he has played and I do think the youngster is going to have a difficult learning experience on Tuesday.
I will not ignore how well Jannik Sinner has played in the tournament, but he is still not returning serve as well as he would like and I think that is where the difference is made between the two players.
It has been anything but plain sailing for Novak Djokovic, but the Wimbledon Champion has produced at a high level since a more difficult First Round than anticipated and his numbers have been very impressive. The serve has long been an underrated weapon for the 20 time Grand Slam Champion, but he has won at least 45% of return points in each of his last three matches at Wimbledon and I do think that return game will make the difference for him in this Quarter Final.
Jannik Sinner has served well and has not been broken in his last two matches combined, but Novak Djokovic will bring another level of intensity into those service games and I do think he is the clear top player on the grass courts on the men's side of the draw.
Their sole previous meeting saw Novak Djokovic beat Jannik Sinner relatively comfortably on the clay courts of Monte Carlo in 2021, but I am expecting the grass courts to give the top Seed a further edge. I cannot say that this is a small spread being set by the layers, but I am expecting a focused and intense Novak Djokovic to have too much for the young Italian and he can win well over the course of the match.
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 sets v David Goffin: A number of British players have reached the Semi Final of the Wimbledon Grand Slam in the last twenty years and Cameron Norrie will feel he has more than enough quality tennis to become the latest to do that.
After a tough, straight sets win over Tommy Paul in the Fourth Round, Cameron Norrie is clearly embracing the growing expectations around him that could see him follow Andy Murray and become a home winner of the tournament. Without a doubt there are some huge challenges ahead for him to do that, but Cameron Norrie should be good enough to win this Quarter Final.
The lefty serve is a big weapon for Cameron Norrie on the surface and he should be far fresher than David Goffin who completed his Fourth Round win in five sets in the longest match that has been played at Wimbledon so far. All credit has to be given to the Belgian for the come from behind win over Frances Tiafoe, but David Goffin is 31 years old now and with a host of injuries on the body, which could leave him vulnerable when it comes to putting together the energy to win this match.
The run to the Quarter Final has been surprising considering the little form shown, while David Goffin was perhaps a touch fortunate to win his Fourth Round match.
The serve can be a little vulnerable at times and David Goffin may find it much more difficult to make up for breaks in this match than he has previously in the tournament. Cameron Norrie's serve is far from the most important aspect of his tennis, but a potentially fatigued David Goffin may be moved around over the course of a couple of hours to be worn down and give up a few more 'easier' holds of serve as the match develops.
David Goffin's return game has also not been as effective in the last couple of Rounds as he would have liked and I think that potentially shows up in this match as Cameron Norrie looks to give the home fans another British Semi Finalist to appreciate.
With the potential fatigue mentioned, I think Cameron Norrie can win this one in three or four sets.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Sets @
Julie Niemeier - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wimbledon 2022: 47-42, + 4.32 Units (178 Units Staked, + 2.43% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment