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Sunday, 17 July 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 18th)

A strong grass court season for the Tennis Picks was not quite signed off with the momentum I would have wanted, but it was a positive set of results over the month.

Like many, I have taken a week off since Wimbledon was concluded just to take a short break in what is always a very long season.

The remainder of this month will see some clay court tournaments played as both Tours see some bigger names on the courts who are trying to pick up some vital Ranking points, while the end of the month will be the beginning of the run towards the US Open.

Before that there are some big tournaments to be played and the next three weeks will be about managing the Tennis Picks and avoiding any really poor days.


Pedro Martinez - 2.5 games v Carlos Taberner: A heat wave has hit Europe and temperatures have been soaring across the continent- things won't be any different in Gstaad on Monday when this ATP tournament gets underway with main draw action.

Two Spanish players will be meeting and you do have to expect both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner to be used to playing in hot conditions, although it is a challenge for two players who have not been in the best form to ignore the difficult temperatures being faced by players.

Despite being comfortable clay courters, this has not been a season to write home about for either Pedro Martinez or Carlos Taberner. The former has won one of his last eight clay court matches going back to early April, while Carlos Taberner has won two of his last eight matches and neither has produced very strong clay court numbers in 2022.

I think both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner are going to have to work hard to protect serve in this match, while Taberner has at least had an edge with his return numbers. He looks to be playing the big points much better than Pedro Martinez on the clay in 2022, but this has regularly been a bad match up for Carlos Taberner and his own personal form is not going to be inspiring a lot of confidence.

The numbers against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts in 2022 are very similar, but Pedro Martinez may be coming into a match with a slight mental edge.

Ending his losing run on the clay in his last tournament will have been a boost for Pedro Martinez, while he has won nine of eleven previous matches against Carlos Taberner, including each of the last three. Those three matches have been played since 2019 and are perhaps the most relevant to this one, although the last time Pedro Martinez and Carlos Taberner played one another is ten months ago.

In those last three matches, Martinez has had a huge edge in the serving numbers and has managed to win 51% of return points against the Carlos Taberner serve, which has led to breaks in 51% of return games played.

I will admit that it is not easy to trust someone who has gotten so used to losing as Pedro Martinez has, but he has enjoyed this match up and that is expected to give him more confidence than he may have had against other opponents. The heat could be a problem for both players, but I think Pedro Martinez will be able to produce enough quality on the return to edge past his compatriot and earn a spot in the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Pedro Martinez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sara Sorribes Tormo - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

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