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Sunday, 3 July 2022

Wimbledon Tennis Day 7 Picks 2022 (July 3rd)

This is no mistake- there is Fourth Round action at Wimbledon on Middle Sunday for the first time with the tournament removing Manic Monday to play on a day that has historically been left as a day of rest.

The extra funds that could be created has to have had an impact after Wimbledon was forced to be cancelled in 2020 in the height on the Covid pandemic, while I am expecting the tournament to be dragged into the 21st Century, kicking and screaming, in the years ahead.

That will likely mean a change to the dress requirements, which has always been largely plain white clothing, while I fully expect the All-England Tennis Club to be talking to the local council and wondering whether it will be possible to add an 'evening' session to the two main show courts, which would provide further ticket sales and extra revenue to be created.


It was a day of drama on Saturday as the Third Round concluded and it would be a massive surprise if we see a match filled with more controversy than the Nick Kyrgios-Stefanos Tsitisioas Third Round encounter.

Personally I think Tsitsipas has to show better mental strength, but I also though Nick Kyrgios pushed all boundaries as he tends to do.


Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 sets v Jannik Sinner: This may be a Fourth Round match at this Grand Slam, but in the years ahead it really feels like Carlos Alcaraz versus Jannik Sinner could end up being played for Grand Slam titles.

Both are relatively inexperienced grass court players, but they look capable of being a threat on all surfaces at this level and the performances of both youngsters in their run to the second week at Wimbledon has to be admired.

The two players have both seen off competent grass court opponents in their run to the Fourth Round and there is no doubt that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are going to be playing with an immense amount of confidence considering the levels being produced.

Serving is going to be massively important in a match where the two players like to be aggressive and get on the front foot- the serve can set those up and the numbers on that side of their games have been very strong throughout the tournament. Carlos Alcaraz looks to be going from strength to strength with his serve, but Jannik Sinner has won over 70% of service points in each match played and has only dropped five times himself compared with Alcaraz dropping his serve three times.

I am finding it hard to separate the two on their raw numbers, while neither had shown a real liking for the grass courts before this tournament began.

Even the return games have been similar and I do think this will be a close and competitive match, although Carlos Alcaraz has the mental advantage having won their two previous matches on the Tour.

The last of those came on an indoor hard court in Paris last November and Carlos Alcaraz was the much stronger server on the day. The enigmatic Spaniard may feel he has the edge, even on the grass courts, when it comes to the return here and I think that will help him work his way past a talented Jannik Sinner in this match.

It should be fun with some impressive tennis on display on both sides of the court, but at key moments I would give the edge to Carlos Alcaraz and it can see him reach his maiden Quarter Final at Wimbledon as he continues his surge to the forefront of men's tennis.


Cameron Norrie - 1.5 sets v Tommy Paul: At the start of the tournament it may have felt like an opportunity for Cameron Norrie to have a deep run at Wimbledon as the British Number 1, but that brings a sense of expectation around a player. However, Norrie deserves plenty of credit for being able to embrace that and he has worked his way through to the Fourth Round with some strong wins behind him.

The Second Round was tougher than expected, but Cameron Norrie rolled past Steve Johnson in the Third Round and he faces another American opponent on one of the main show courts at the tournament.

This time it is Tommy Paul that stands in front of Cameron Norrie and there will be a quiet confidence around the American having played some solid warm up tennis over the last month. Previously he had not shown his best on the grass courts, but Tommy Paul looks to be gaining more and more confidence behind each win and he has yet to drop a set on his way to the Fourth Round.

Even more impressive is that Tommy Paul has only allowed opponents to win at least four games in two of the nine sets he has won so far and the serve has been a big weapon for him. He is backing that up with returning numbers that have previously not been produced on this surface and the big question for Paul is whether he can keep those up against a powerful lefty serve that Cameron Norrie brings to the court.

In their last two matches against one another, Cameron Norrie has had the edge when it comes to the serve and I think that is going to be a key to this match.

Cameron Norrie has not had the best returning numbers on the grass in the last month, but the same can be said for Tommy Paul, and there has been a shift in the performances from the British Number 1 in this tournament. He has won at least 42% of return points played in each match to earn his place in the Fourth Round and while Tommy Paul has also shown a huge improvement in the tournament, I do think the Norrie serve can be the more effective of the two.

In their four previous matches, Cameron Norrie has won a higher percentage of return points and forced a higher percentage of breaks, while he has won two in a row against Tommy Paul to build the confidence.

I think this will be a competitive match with tight sets played, but Cameron Norrie can edge in front at the big moments and I think he will reach the Quarter Final behind a win in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marie Bouzkova @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Heather Watson + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon 2022: 40-35, + 5.20 Units (150 Units Staked, + 3.47% Yield)

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