Tennis Picks 2018 (July 25th)

Much like last week, it has been a very good start to the week but I am hoping I am able to maintain the success much better than I was able to do a few days ago.

On Wednesday we move into the Second Round of the matches to be played at ATP Atlanta, ATP Gstaad, ATP Hamburg as well as the two WTA events being played this week. My Tennis Picks are focusing on the men's tournaments taking place because of the better fields that have come together, although I imagine the WTA Moscow event will present some opportunities later in the week as the tournament reaches the business end.

Any Picks from Atlanta will be added to this thread at some point on Wednesday, but for now the three selections come from Gstaad and Hamburg.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: One of the big concerns for an inconsistent player like Fernando Verdasco has to be the long match he had to come through in the First Round in Hamburg. He spent around 40 minutes longer on the court than his opponent in this Second Round match, although it should be noted that Thiago Monteiro is in the draw as a Lucky Loser having won one and lost one Qualifier to get into the main draw.

The majority of his time is spent on the clay courts which makes Monteiro dangerous, but the best results he has tended to produce on the main Tour have come on the South American clay courts. His win over Gilles Simon in the First Round is a solid one which has to be respected, but Verdasco has already beaten the Brazilian very comfortably in 2018.

Verdasco had a very good win over Dusan Lajovic but his performances are becoming more and more erratic as the veteran reaches the latter stage of his career.

To be fair to Verdasco his numbers have been pretty strong in 2018 on the clay courts and they will certainly give him a chance to beat Monteiro for a second time on this surface. Thiago Monteiro has played well enough on the clay courts, but he has struggled with his return of serve and I think that could be a difference maker if Verdasco is not feeling too much tiredness after a long week in Bastad and a tough First Round match.

The struggles on the return of serve have been particularly evident when Monteiro has played on the main Tour and I do give Verdasco enough of an edge to cover this number. While his return of serve has only produced a 29% break rate in 2018, Verdasco has actually won more points on the return of serve this season than he has in previous years and I think it is the Spaniard who will have the majority of break points in this one.

It is always difficult to know what Verdasco will turn up to the court, but he dominated Monteiro when they met on the clay courts in South America earlier this season. If he serves as he has for much of the season on the clay courts Verdasco can do enough to cover this number in a victory over Monteiro.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: This is actually a pretty big number for Gael Monfils to cover when you think he is playing the defending Champion in Hamburg and has had close matches against Leonardo Mayer in the past.

In fact they played one another on the clay courts earlier this season and Monfils was a narrow winner, while he has also needed three sets to win his First Round match. Compare that to Mayer who has had a day of rest between his First Round match and this one and also was a strong winner in his match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

The fact Monfils is 3-0 against Mayer will help the confidence in this one and Mayer has struggled to really put the wins together on the clay courts in 2018. The title win in Hamburg will make Mayer feel better in these surroundings and he will point out the fact that Monfils was perhaps fortunate to beat Marco Cecchinato in the First Round.

The Frenchman has to be very pleased with that win when you think of how well Cecchinato has played on the clay in 2018. However he did win the title in Umag last week which may have meant the Italian was lacking something in the tank to beat Monfils.

The reason I do like Monfils is that he has had plenty of success on the clay courts in the past and the numbers are very similar to what Leonardo Mayer has produced. That is where the head to head could prove to be the difference in the critical moments of this match and I will look for Gael Monfils to end Mayer's defence of the title with a strong looking win.


Roberto Carballes Baena - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: This looks like it has all the makings of a very close Second Round match with the two players producing very similar numbers on the clay courts.

Both Carballes Baena and Taro Daniel have had good First Round wins too, but the difference could come from a mental point of view. It is the Spaniard who has won all five previous matches between himself and Daniel and all but one of those have been on the clay courts albeit the last of those was a couple of years ago.

There has been an improvement in both players since they last met in 2016 but I am not sure you can completely ignore the fact that Daniel has won just a single set between these players.

In 2018 both have served pretty well and also broke serve at around the same number, although Carballes Baena may just have a slight edge all around. Adding that to the head to head and I think the Spaniard can be backed in what is considered a close match in Gstaad.

It is Taro Daniel who has had the better winning percentage on the clay courts, but I think Carballas Baena is going to be the one moving through to the Quarter Final and I will back him to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.08 Units (8 Units Staked, + 38.5% Yield)