Tennis Picks 2018 (July 20th)

Friday is regularly Quarter Final day on the Tennis Tour from week to week and this Friday is no different with all of the last eight matches in Bucharest, Gstaad, Bastad and Umag all set to be played.

Newport is a little different as they split their Quarter Finals across Thursday and Friday so the two remaining Quarter Final matches are set to go on Friday.


It has been a tough couple of days for the Tennis Picks with a couple of poor bits of fortune costing me the chance to have a couple of winning days.

On Friday I will add any Picks from the late matches in Umag that have yet to have their markets put together, but the majority of the Tennis Picks are below.


Simone Bolelli - 3.5 games v Henri Laaksonen: The most impressive performance that Simone Bolelli would have produced for the majority of fans to see would have been his close encounter with Rafael Nadal at the French Open. However the Italian has been going about his work to improve the World Ranking and a strong run to the Quarter Final in Bastad after coming through the Qualifiers will be helping his improvement.

This has been part of a strong season on the clay courts for the veteran Italian who has been up and down throughout his career. The numbers have shown how well he has played at the lower level and Bolelli is not faced with an opponent who is used to playing at the main ATP level himself.

Henri Laaksonen has also come through the Qualifiers, but he was the beneficiary of a Lucky Loser spot to take his place in the main draw. He actually beat Juan Ignacio Londero in the First Round after losing to the same player in the Qualifiers, and Laaksonen was much more impressive in the way he beat Matteo Berrettini in the Second Round.

Unlike Bolelli, Laaksonen's general numbers have not been that strong over the course of 2018 when it comes to the clay courts. There has been a decline across both serving and returning numbers compared with 2016 and 2017 and his 12-12 record has been aided by winning a couple of matches here in Bastad.

Bolelli has been much stronger as underlined by his 22-7 mark on the clay courts and the Italian has been holding serve at 85% which will give him a good platform to build on in this match against an opponent who has struggled with the return of serve. Add in the fact that Bolelli has a decent break percentage and I think he will break down Laaksonen and back up a very good win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the Second Round.

In his 22 wins, 18 have seen Bolelli cover this number and I think he will better an opponent who has not had the same level of success on the Challenger Tour as Bolelli has had. I will back the Italian to find a way to earn the cover in this one and move through to a main Tour Semi Final which will offer a huge boost to the World Ranking.


Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 games v Laslo Djere: The feeling was that Marco Cecchinato would be a touch overrated in matches on the clay courts during this mini-European swing after layers would factor in the run to the French Open Semi Final. In saying that I am surprised that Cecchinato is not a stronger favourite to beat Laslo Djere in this Umag Quarter Final and I do like the Italian to work his way into another Semi Final on this surface.

Earlier this season Cecchinato won the title in Budapest which is the first real success he has had on the main Tour. Nothing he had done between that title win and the beginning of the French Open would have prepared us to see the run Cecchinato managed in Paris, but he is unsurprisingly very comfortable on the clay.

The numbers Cecchinato has produced have shown that some of his successes have had more to do with his performance than simple good fortune, but he can't expect to walk through Djere who has had a couple of solid wins behind him already this week.

Djere beating Pablo Cuevas shows this is a player ready to take the next step in his career and he has very similar clay court numbers to Cecchinato, albeit the majority of his matches coming at the lower level than the main ATP Tour. Since Roland Garros Djere has reached the Final of one Challenger event on the clay and won the title at another and that kind of confidence can be huge for a player who then moves onto a higher level of opponent.

That difference of level of opponent has to be considered, but I think that the layers have made this a tough match to separate the players because of how well Djere has been playing over the last month. Djere has been returning really well in his first couple of matches in Umag and he has brought up a lot of break points thanks to a strong level shown which makes him dangerous.

However I think Cecchinato has shown heart to come through a difficult Second round match and his belief has to be at peak level. The Italian has been that little bit stronger all around when he has played opponents Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts in 2018 and I think he will edge out Djere here.


Dusan Lajovic - 1.5 games v Guido Pella: The clay courts have always been the favoured surface for Dusan Lajovic, but he has made slight improvements in his numbers in 2018 to produce more wins on the main Tour than previous years.

With a couple more wins he could be fast approaching his best ever World Ranking and Lajovic comes into this Quarter Final as the favourite to beat Guido Pella.

No one will be underestimating how good Pella can be on the clay courts considering this is a surface on which he would have been very used to playing all his life. His own numbers have been decent, but Pella has already had to come through two tough matches so far in Umag and that could mean he is vulnerable to Lajovic in the form he is in.

Both players have served well and Pella only has a slight edge when it comes to the return of serve, but I think the Lajovic serve will ensure that he is having to face off not as many break points as the Argentinian will have to.

I won't be at all surprised if this is a close match with another deciding set needed having seen both win in three sets in the Second Round. That is where Lajovic's slightly less tennis being played this week could mean he has more to offer and I will look to back him to get the better of Pella in this Quarter Final.


Evgeny Donskoy v Marco Trungelliti: Marco Trungelliti will be most known to tennis fans for the journey he made from Barcelona to Paris to take up a Lucky Loser spot in the French Open draw back in May. With his mother and grandmother crammed either side of his tennis racquets, Trungelliti took advantage of social media to show the fans a little insight into his life.

Travelling on the road is the life of a tennis player but especially the case for someone like Trungelliti who is making a tough living on the Tour. The majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit, although he has shown in Umag that he should be respected on the clay courts which is his favoured surface.

Coming through a couple of Qualifiers and then winning a couple of main draw matches will help with the Ranking and he is favoured to reach the Semi Final here.

However I think Evgeny Donskoy could be a little underrated to upset the Argentinian having shown good form of his own. Donskoy has arguably the most impressive of the wins this week compared with Trungelliti and that can only aid the confidence of a player who has been serving very well on the clay courts in 2018.

I am anticipating a close match and I would not be surprised if we need a decider as both players had to battle through one in their last match. The serving prowess of Donskoy may give him enough of an edge to upset Trungelliti though and I am backing the Russian to get past his opponent and make the Semi Final in Umag.

MY PICKS: Simone Bolelli - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Evgeny Donskoy @ 2.37 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-8, + 0.12 Units (34 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)