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Friday, 6 July 2018

Wimbledon Tennis Day 5 Picks 2018 (July 6th)

This has been a bit of a trying week all around and that has meant my Wimbledon Picks threads have been very short compared to other Grand Slam tournaments during the season.

I am hopeful of getting fuller analysis out in the days ahead, but it's not easy with the other things going on in my life at the moment.

As long as I keep picking winners I won't mind though even if I have had a couple of tougher days in the office.

Like I have said all week I am going to have some analysis below where possible and then adding the full Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section at the bottom of the thread.

Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Asking Roger Federer to cover big numbers can be something of a difficulty when you consider some of the issues he has had on the return of serve. It hasn't prevented him from winning multiple Grand Slam titles since the beginning of the 2017 season but it does raise some questions about the ability to cover the big numbers at these Grand Slam events.

With that in mind you have to take note that Federer has won both matches at Wimbledon very comfortably and managed to cover a handicap of one game higher than this one in each of those wins. He made a fast start to the win over Dusan Lajovic, but Federer left it late to cover against Lukas Lacko after running through the third set 6-1 after a couple of tight first two sets.

You also have to wonder how much Jan-Lennard Struff has left in the tank having needed to come from 2-0 down in sets in each of his two wins so far at Wimbledon. The serve is a big weapon for the German, but you wouldn't have fancied his chances much in either matches played having shown no form at all in Stuttgart and Halle.

Confidence will have been given a boost by the successes had by Struff in those wins over Leonardo Mayer and Ivo Karlovic, but the energy level is not going to be very high after the effort put into turning those matches around. At least in the First Round Struff was able to run through the final set, but against Karlovic he needed twenty-four games in the final set and I think Federer will have a chance to pick the bones here.

Their previous two matches have been tight affairs though, including at the Australian Open back in January and that does raise some doubts about how easily Federer can win this match. The Struff serve can be a huge part of the German's game and if he is firing he will be very difficult to break, but I think Federer is going to get enough balls back in play and wear down an opponent who has played so much tennis in the first four days in SW19.

I think Federer will have the break point chances to at least cover for a third straight match in a row in this tournament and I am going to back him to do that against a tired opponent who could fall away.

Adrian Mannarino v Daniil Medvedev: This has to be one of the more interesting matches set to be played on Friday in the Third Round as two players who are very competent on the grass courts meet.

There is a definite feeling that Daniil Medvedev is a top 10 player in the making, but the young man has had a difficult time back on the grass over the last month. This is a surface on which he has thrived in the last couple of years and the loss of form meant he was a big underdog to get past Halle Champion Borna Coric in the First Round.

Medvedev had a sudden return to form in that match though and he has produced a couple of really quality looking wins this week which makes him very dangerous. The winner of this match could face Roger Federer on Manic Monday which should only offer more motivation, but Medvedev will have to respect the challenge that Adrian Mannarino can bring on the grass courts.

The Frenchman reached the Final in Antalya in the days before Wimbledon was due to start and he has long been a very competent grass court player. There does look to be a real decline in his play which can't be ignored as Mannarino is over 30 years old, but the success in Antalya coupled with two decent wins in the main draw here should mean he is about as confident as he could be for this match.

In all honesty I think Medvedev's wins have been the better looking on paper, but I am going to lean towards Mannarino who has beaten this opponent in both previous career meetings on the Tour. One of those wins came a couple of years ago on the grass in Hertogenbosch, and I also think Mannarino had been showing the better form heading into Wimbledon which may give him a narrow edge in this match.

It could be the match to see on Friday in the men's draw that has been set at the time of writing, but I am going to back the veteran to edge out the youngster in this one. The Frenchman is the narrow underdog to do that and that looks a tempting enough prospect to back him here.

Dennis Novak-Milos Raonic over 34.5 games: John Millman is going to be kicking himself that he didn't find a way to beat Milos Raonic in the Second Round having had a number of tie-breakers to try and get past the Canadian. Ultimately it was Raonic who won 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 and he progresses to another Third Round at Wimbledon.

There are still some question marks about how healthy Raonic is feeling and I think that is the main reason he is almost flying under the radar at Wimbledon despite being a recent Finalist here. He pulled out in Queens before a match against Feliciano Lopez, but the expectation is that Raonic will still have too much for his opponent in this Third Round match.

Dennis Novak has only ever played in the main draw of one previous Grand Slam and to say his grass court experience prior to this year was limited would be an understatement. However the Austrian decided to give the Qualifiers a go and he has made it through three matches there before winning a couple in the main draw including the upset of Lucas Pouille in the last Round.

Novak was up 2-0 in sets against the Frenchman before seeing him off in five sets and I do wonder if that is going to have an impact in this match. The emotions of beating a top 20 player for the first time after being crushed by Grigor Dimitrov at the Australian Open will be tough for Novak to deal with, but he has been playing well enough to come into this match with some belief.

That may be enough for him to challenge Raonic although Novak won't have faced too many servers as fierce as the one the Canadian brings to the court. It will be all about how down Novak gets if he is unable to get too much of a racquet onto the serves, but his own has been working well enough to think he can push Raonic more than the layers imagine.

The first five setter and the emotion of a big win does go against Novak, but I think he has the momentum and confidence to take on a player who is perhaps not feeling at 100%. There is the obvious danger of a player trying to recover to play another match after the biggest win on their career, but I think Novak will be able to force a couple of tie-breakers and taking one of those will give him every chance of helping the two players surpass this number of total games.

Sam Querrey-Gael Monfils over 40.5 games: There are a couple of players in the draw that are going to be favoured convincingly at this stage of the tournament and one of those is Sam Querrey. He has had some huge success in the Grand Slams in the last twelve months and has the kind of grass court pedigree that not many would really want to take on in the tournament.

One of those that may be less concerned is Gael Monfils who has had one quality win already at Wimbledon when easing past Richard Gasquet in the First Round. His own grass court ability is pretty decent, but it is the wins he has had over Querrey in the past which will give the Frenchman the belief he can win a tough looking Third Round match.

Both players will believe their return game is good enough to win a match like this but it has all the hallmarks of being a tight affair and I would imagine it goes at least four sets.

Querrey and Monfils possess two serves that should be very effective on the grass courts and I do think there will be enough holds to produce a couple of tie-breakers. We do need at least four sets to cover the total games line from the off, but I think the way both Querrey and Monfils have been playing there is every chance of that happening.

I do think this is going to be a tight match and my lean is towards Querrey when it comes to a winning player. However I think it is right to keep things simple here and look for at least four sets to be needed which should mean this total games number is surpassed.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Dennis Novak-Milos Raonic Over 34.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sam Querrey-Gael Monfils Over 40.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 22-21, + 0.92 Units (86 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

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