Wimbledon Tennis Outright Picks 2018 (July 2-15)

The third Grand Slam of the 2018 Tennis season is just about ready to get underway and the weather in London looks to be stunning for the opening of Wimbledon 2018.

The shift onto the grass is a positive time for some players and a real pain to deal with for others, but that tends to mean we usually have a small field of players who can genuinely go all the way to win the title here.

Looking at the men's event it is hard to think of a new name that could join the list of former Winners here, while the women's event looks as wide open as the other two Slams that have been played in 2018 with the additional 'wild card' of Serena Williams.

Below I have written a short preview of both events and I will highlight any outright picks that appeal for the tournament. Day 1 Picks should be out by Sunday evening and I am going to take a similar approach as I did at the French Open which is putting down my full analysis for a few matches and then adding the remaining Picks to the 'My Picks' section.

During the World Cup it is the best approach with work and football meaning it will be tough to write a full analysis of 10-12 Picks from the opening Rounds, but later in the tournament that will be less of an issue.

Men's Tournament

The defending Champion and World Number 2 Roger Federer has missed the clay court season for the last couple of years and it worked well for him twelve months ago when picking up yet another Wimbledon title. He takes his place at the top of the draw and opens proceedings on Centre Court on Monday and Federer comes in having won the title in Stuttgart before a surprising loss to Borna Coric in the Halle Final.

The performances in Halle may be a slight concern for his fans, but Federer is going to be a tough out for anyone who wants to beat him in a best of five set match on his favourite surface. Grass is really a specialty surface and there aren't too many who are more special than Federer which makes him the correct favourite to win the title yet again.

That favouritism is only strengthened by the kind looking draw for Federer and I really don't foresee too many problems for him until the business end of the draw. Ivo Karlovic and Adrian Mannarino are comfortable grass court players that potentially stand in Federer's way, but it would be an upset of epic proportions for either to knock him off his run to another strong showing in SW19.

Borna Coric, the Federer conqueror in Halle, is the potential Fourth Round opponent for the Number 1 Seed which is very interesting. Prior to Halle I don't think Coric showed a lot of feel for grass court tennis and he will have to beat competent grass courter Mannarino to get into the potential Fourth Round clash with Federer and I am not sure he will be able to repeat his heroics from Halle again.

There are a couple of other players in the bottom half of the First Quarter who may well feel they can have very strong showings here. Sam Querrey and Richard Gasquet have all enjoyed successes at Wimbledon in the past with both reaching at least the Semi Final before, while Kevin Anderson's big serving game is well suited to this surface too.

It is Gasquet who I feel could have the best run if he gets through a tremendously difficult First Round match against compatriot Gael Monfils, but I would be very surprised if Federer is not playing in another Semi Final in SW19 later this month and his short odds to win the First Quarter reflects that.

The Second Quarter of the men's draw is very interesting with two recent Finalists and a Semi Finalist from Wimbledon's past all in this section. The favourite to reach another Semi Final has to be Marin Cilic, who is also the highest Seeded player in the section, and his recent form suggests that is the right person to get behind.

Cilic won the Queens tournament in the build up to this Grand Slam and he has become a huge factor on the grass courts in recent years. The confidence from deep runs at the US Open, Australian Open and French Open shows how strong a player Cilic has become on all surfaces, but he is a tremendous test for anyone on this particular surface.

His form has looked very good but a potential Fourth Round clash with Milos Raonic could be a really tough match.

Well I would have been much more concerned about it if the Canadian has not been dealing with the injury issues he has been which forced him to pull out in Queens. Raonic did reach the Final in Stuttgart before falling to Roger Federer, but I just feel like he is still rebuilding his strength and confidence and I would back Cilic in that match on current form.

My feeling is that Cilic is going to be one of the Quarter Finalists in this section and he is most likely going to be opposed by Steve Johnson or Grigor Dimitrov. John Isner is also in this section and is most famous for the longest match in Wimbledon history, but his actually record at Wimbledon is pretty average for someone who serves as huge as he does.

The draw is perhaps not the toughest, but his compatriot Steve Johnson will likely oust him in the Second Round and that is where I think Johnson will be able to pick his way through the draw to the potential Fourth Round match with Dimitrov. These two have played some tough matches against one another in the past but I do think the Bulgarian is overrated on the grass thanks to past results and it would not be a massive surprise if Johnson was able to overcome him here.

It could be that Dimitrov is the fresher player coming into that Fourth Round though and that is a match to look forward to. I don't think it matters a great deal as to who will win as I would favour Cilic to be too strong for either and the Croatian will be part of my outright plan for this tournament.


I think the Third Quarter of the men's draw is very intriguing with a number of leading contenders which means the favourite to reach the Semi Final, Novak Djokovic, is almost 2-1 to make it out of the section. I don't think Djokovic will have too many problems getting through the first couple of Rounds here after showing very strong form at Queens where he reached the Final and came close to beating Marin Cilic, things look very difficult from then moving forward through the draw.

At the moment Djokovic is not in the top 10 of the World Rankings which means the tough matches come a little earlier in the draw than he is perhaps used to. Kyle Edmund doesn't have a strong grass court record, but he is a tough match up in the Third Round while Karen Khachanov has the power to hit through opponents on this surface and has had some very strong results over the last twelve months to be anything but a difficult match for Djokovic in the Fourth Round.

The lower half of the Third Quarter is no less difficult to predict with Nick Kyrgios, Alexander Zverev and Kei Nishikori all involved in this section of the draw. My predicted draw had Nishikori coming through to the Quarter Final, but I wouldn't feel completely confident in that prediction as Kyrgios could turn on the style to reach that stage again.

I am less believing in Zverev who had some injury issue at the French Open and has had his difficulties on the grass in the past, but no matter who is able to get through to the Quarter Final it will be another tough match for Djokovic.

My lean is that Djokovic does come out of this section, but his price looks short with the matches he will have to face and I think the better angle may be finding plays in those tough matches when they come up if the market dictates.


It has been seven years since Rafael Nadal last played in the Wimbledon Final and he has yet to get past the Fourth Round in the years since. In 2017 he was beaten in a tough match against Gilles Muller, but Nadal will arrive at SW19 with a lot of confidence having won yet another French Open title and I don't think the limited grass court play this summer is going to have a big impact on his play here.

The draw is not entirely straight forward with a couple of players in decent form over the last month who could cause problems. Mikhail Kukushkin reached the Semi Final in Eastbourne last week and he would be a potential Second Round opponent, while Mischa Zverev's serve-volley style took him to the title in Eastbourne and could face Nadal in the Third Round.

I do have to respect the potential those players have, but I would still think Nadal is going to be a little too good for them in a best of five setting and the majority of the dangers in the Fourth Quarter of the draw reside in the top half of the draw.

Juan Martin Del Potro, Feliciano Lopez, Jeremy Chardy and Andy Murray are in a small section of the draw which means only one of those players will be able to make it through to the Fourth Round.

I really don't know which of those is going to make it through to the Fourth Round, but my feeling is that it will be Del Potro.

I am not convinced about Murray's fitness to win three tough best of five set matches in a row especially with the kind of matches he has to face, while I think Del Potro can outhit Lopez and Chardy for long enough in potential matches to get past those.

Of course Murray could be a big danger if he gets through this section and through to the Fourth Round. His grass court pedigree can't be dismissed, but I do think Del Potro will be the biggest threat to Murray with his ability to power through the former World Number 1.

A player who could be a surprise to reach the Quarter Final is Matthew Ebden who has been in fine form over the last month on the grass courts. His opening match is against David Goffin which won't be an easy one, but I do think Ebden could have a deep run in the Wimbledon draw if he can get through that one and the Australian may hope he can face someone who has already had three tough matches in the Fourth Round.

It should be a fun Quarter of the draw, but I am leaning towards Nadal to form a part of my staking plan by having him come through the Fourth Quarter at a big price. It isn't an easy path through the draw but I think Nadal will be fairly happy with the way it has panned out and I expect him to grow into this tournament.

It has been a long time since Nadal has had a really big run at Wimbledon, but I can see it happening in 2018 and I will back him to make it out of this section of the draw.


I am backing a couple of players to come out of a couple of the Quarters of the draw and both at a decent price.

For the outright winner I think it is hard to look past Roger Federer winning another title here in SW19 despite not looking at his best in Halle. However he won the title in Stuttgart and he has an opportunity to settle into the tournament with a kind draw giving him a genuinely decent path through the draw.

I think his biggest danger may be the potential Semi Final with Marin Cilic who came so close to beating Federer at the Australian Open back in January, but on this surface I think the World Number 1 will be the man to beat and I will back him to win yet another Wimbledon title.

Women's Tournament

The two previous Grand Slams featuring the WTA players have been very open events and I have little doubt that this year's Wimbledon was going to be another. The favourite for the title is in the First Quarter of the draw, but Petra Kvitova is a big price to go all the way and win another Wimbledon title having done that twice before in her career.

The recovery from a hand injury caused by an intruder over eighteen months ago has been very impressive from Kvitova and her win in Birmingham suggests the Czech player is back to her best on her favourite surface.

I do think the price would have been much shorter for Kvitova if she had been in a kinder Quarter of the draw with some big names to overcome just to make the Semi Final.

Simona Halep is the World Number 1 and coming off a maiden Grand Slam win when she took the title home in Paris. There is a hope that will open the floodgates for Halep going forward, but I think it will be tough to raise her intensity at Wimbledon and I believe it is Johanna Konta, the Semi Finalist from last year, who will be most likely to reach the Quarter Final.

However it has to be said that Konta could have had a better path through to the Fourth Round herself which means there is a potential for some real upsets in this Quarter.

For Kvitova the biggest immediate danger looks to be Maria Sharapova although the Russian has yet to really get back to the level she had prior to the fifteen month ban for using a banned substance. Sharapova also hasn't played any competitive tennis since going out of the French Open and I am going to look for Kvitova to have a very strong run in this tournament.

The Second Quarter of the draw is led by defending Champion Garbine Muguruza and there is every chance she could have another strong showing at Wimbledon. I find it hard to really trust Muguruza in these types of events though as she is player that can blow hot and cold frequently, although she does remind of Stan Wawrinka from the ATP Tour in that she does seem to peak for the Grand Slam events.

To be honest Muguruza could not have asked for a much better draw with the first real threat likely to come in the Fourth Round when she will come up against Ashleigh Barty who has been a tremendous player on the grass courts. It will take a big effort for Barty to make it through to that potential match, and I do wonder if she has the mental strength to really beat a big name player at this level.

Instead the biggest threat in this Quarter of the draw looks to be Angelique Kerber who will feel she is coming into the better half of the season as far as her results are going to show. The German has reached the Final at Wimbledon before and she has been in decent form on the grass courts underlined by her run to the Semi Final in Eastbourne last week.

I do think the likes of Naomi Osaka and Caroline Garcia could be tough matches for Kerber but I would favour the latter to beat both of those players on her current form. It really could come down to a Muguruza versus Kerber Quarter Final to decide the Semi Finalist in the top half of the draw and I think the latter looks a big price to win this Quarter of the draw.

You can't ignore the fact that Muguruza has beaten Kerber five times in a row, including at Wimbledon last year, but Kerber has been very unfortunate in at least a couple of those losses. Even the one last year should really have gone the other way and I think this time Kerber can find a way to get out of the Quarter even if she faces Muguruza, although the Spaniard becomes a real danger when she picks up momentum in these Grand Slam events.

There really is an open look to the Third Quarter of the draw at Wimbledon this summer and that is highlighted by the favourite being as big as 4.50 to come out of the Quarter.

That favourite is Sloane Stephens who has won the US Open and reached the Final of the French Open in the last twelve months and who has a very strong performance indicator on the grass. However I am not convinced she gets past Donna Vekic in the First Round, while second favourite in the Quarter Karolina Pliskova has openly admitted that she is not completely comfortable on the grass courts despite having some strong results on the surface.

Venus Williams is a multiple time former Wimbledon Champion and that has to be respected, but she has not looked in good form for some time. There is a chance that Venus can turn things around here, but she is in a tough Quarter and will have to get going immediately, while Victoria Azarenka is still a little inconsistent on her return to full time tennis.

It really feels like a section in which we could have a surprise Semi Finalist and I have found Barbora Strycova at a very big price to be that player. It certainly feels like the Czech player could be worth a small interest to do that with her strong record on the grass courts in recent years certainly showing she is capable of having a strong tournament.

Strycova has not had a great season but she did reach the Fourth Round at both the Australian Open and French Open in 2018 and her best ever Grand Slam result was a Quarter Final run here in 2014. The price does reflect the situation with Strycova never having a really strong run in a Grand Slam to think she could reach the Semi Final here, but she may be the player that is able to work her way through the draw while other players perhaps falter.

The opening Round match against Svetlana Kuznetsova is the key to get this going and there are some big matches along the way that Strycova will have to negotiate too, but she could be someone who is a back to lay option in this draw.

I am not quite convinced enough to bring her into my staking plan but I wouldn't be massively surprised if Strycova can come through a tough section to get a read on.

There may have been some controversy attached to the decision made by Wimbledon to Seed Serena Williams but that is the situation that the other players will have to deal with. The American is the best grass court female player of all time as far as I am concerned and Williams presents a significant threat if she can find her form here.

It isn't going to be plain-sailing for Serena Williams who had an injury at the French Open which forced her withdrawal from that tournament. She has not been able to play a competitive match since then and Williams has had limited tennis in the last eighteen months which means she should be vulnerable especially early in the draw.

The draw has been kind enough for Serena Williams to get through the first couple of Rounds without too many problems but a potential Third Round match against Elina Svitolina is going to a real test of her credentials. If Serena Williams is able to get through that she is then potentially facing Madison Keys who is coming in off a strong showing at the French Open and should be much more comfortable on the grass and I do think it is a tough ask for Serena Williams to get out of this Quarter.

With Williams in this Quarter it is no surprise you can find some big prices opposing her in the draw and it is the bottom half of the Quarter where my attention has drifted to find that player.

Caroline Wozniacki and Coco Vandeweghe are both very good grass court players and I think they will head into a Fourth Round match that could determine who is able to make it through to the Quarter Final. Both have a couple of very tough matches to negotiate before that Fourth Round match though with the likes of Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Martic both in this half of the Quarter.

However both are in the same section as Wozniacki who has yet to get past the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and so my interest lands with Vandeweghe who hasn't had a great month on the grass courts. She is a two time former Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon though and I think her game is suited to go one step further.

Vandeweghe has not made it past the Second Round of her two Slams in 2018, but if she can get into a roll I think she can be difficult to stop here. She reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and the US Open in 2017 so I am not of the belief that there is a Quarter Final mental blockage for the American to overcome at Grand Slam level and she looks a huge price to reach the Semi Final here.

I will keep Vandeweghe as part of my staking plan for this event as I look for her to get out of the Fourth Quarter of the draw.


Like the men's draw, my main focus from the women's event at London will be from the Quarter winners I have highlighted and I will back three players to just make the Semi Final.

My most likely winner of this event if Petra Kvitova, but the women's draw looks wide open to me and I am not always convinced by the Czech player. If she wins her Quarter I would fancy her to go on and win this tournament, but I am just going to back her at a decent price to come through her section of the draw.

Both Angelique Kerber and Coco Vandeweghe are worthy of small interest for Semi Final spots too as far as I can see and I am looking forward to hopefully produce some winners in around ten days time.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer to Win the Title @ 2.87 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic to Win the Second Quarter @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal to Win the Fourth Quarter @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova to Win First Quarter @ 2.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber to Win Second Quarter @ 5.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Coco Vandeweghe to Win Fourth Quarter @ 17.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Season 2018 Update: + 30.32 Units (983 Units Staked, + 3.08% Yield)