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Tuesday, 10 July 2018

Wimbledon Tennis Day 8 Picks 2018 (July 10th)

The World Cup has really overshadowed the Wimbledon Tennis Grand Slam tournament for me and I am sure for many others which has meant we have quietly reached the business end of the third Slam of the season.

On Tuesday the focus is on the women's draw with the four Quarter Final matches all played on the same day and it has been a strange tournament that has seen the top TEN Seeds all exit the tournament. While the upsets have been coming thick and fast there are still three former Grand Slam Champions still in the draw and they are separated from one another which should mean there is still a strong winner of the tournament.

Of course we have seen a number of the WTA players pick up a maiden Slam in the last twelve months with the last three all being won by a player that hadn't won a Slam before. With that in mind it would not be a huge surprise if there is another first time winner here at Wimbledon, although Serena Williams looks a strong favourite to me going into the final five days of the event.

Manic Monday was almost an amazing day for the Tennis Picks but I will settle with a strong return of winners compared with losers. However I wasn't far away from having a truly tremendous day with a couple of points here and there hurting me from having a much stronger winning record.

In saying that I won't complain about a successful day for the Tennis Picks with Gilles Simon another likely winner as long as one of the players don't pull out of a match that is entering a fourth set on Tuesday after light called off play.

On Tuesday the main focus will be on the women's Quarter Finals though as all four matches take up the schedule on Centre Court and Court One on the day.

Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: With the top ten Seeds in the women's tournament at Wimbledon out of the event before the Quarter Final line up was completed it has been left to Angelique Kerber to be the highest Seeded player in the draw.

It would be foolish to read too much into that and Kerber as a two time former Grand Slam Winner as well as a former Wimbledon Finalist is all too aware of that. She has already had to come through some difficult matches to reach the Quarter Final and Kerber will be well aware of the talent that Daria Kasatkina possesses.

Matches between these players have been very close and both Kerber and Kasatkina have had their moments where they dominated the other. The most recent of those matches came in Eastbourne on the grass in the days before the tournament at Wimbledon began and it was Kerber who deserved her victory even if the last two sets needed tie-breakers to separate them.

This Quarter Final is likely to be a close match too because both players are very good returning players and neither possesses a serve that is going to be offering up a lot of cheap points even on the grass courts. Out of the two players I would suggest the Kasatkina run to the Quarter Final has come out of left field a little more than Kerber's just because the young Russian has yet to really show her best tennis on this surface.

However the win over Ashleigh Barty is about as good as any win that Kerber can put up alongside that one. That will have given Kasatkina confidence even if her numbers on the grass courts have not been the best in the last couple of years, while her Quarter Final defeat to Sloane Stephens at the French Open in June would have given Kasatkina vital experience to help her in this match.

Even then I think the Kerber numbers have been very strong on the grass courts and she has always looked comfortable here at Wimbledon. I think she will be the player who is able to turn a few more defensive rallies into strong offensive ones and I think Kerber will get the better of a number of break points that both players will create in this one.

It won't be a surprise if there are a few breaks of serve in this one, but I will look for Kerber to get the better of Kasatkina and make it through to the Semi Final.

Jelena Ostapenko - 1.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: There is every chance this could end up being the best of the four Quarter Final matches to be played on Tuesday with both Jelena Ostapenko and Dominika Cibulkova showing fine form over the past nine days at Wimbledon.

Both are competent grass court players and neither has dropped a set in the tournament although I have to give Cibulkova the slight edge when it comes to the level of opponent she has beaten so far this week. The win over Johanna Konta is the stand out performance either player has produced, but I have to respect the way Ostapenko has fought back from a couple of difficult moments too.

It is Cibulkova who has won the two previous meetings between these players, but the last of those came before Ostapenko won her maiden Grand Slam title at the French Open in 2017. Her early exit in the defence of her title would have hurt the Latvian, but she has bounced back with some strong results on the grass courts.

The key for Ostapenko is making sure she gets plenty of first serves into play and is not overcommitting to her groundstrokes which can lead to a number of unforced errors flying off her racquet in quick succession. Someone like Cibulkova will lap up those kind of mistakes, but she will also be concerned that she doesn't allow Ostapenko to see too many second serves against which the younger player should have a lot of success.

You do have to factor in the obvious motivation Cibulkova has been playing with after seeing Wimbledon decide to bump her from the Seedings to incorporate Serena Williams. That makes her dangerous especially with the strong returning numbers being backed up by decent serving displays and I would not be massively surprised if we see a third set decider in this one.

However I think it is Ostapenko who has shown the more consistent performances on this surface over the last few seasons and I think she will get through this match and reach a Semi Final in another Grand Slam event.

Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Camila Giorgi: After having an issue with her shoulder which made serving an almost impossibility for Serena Williams at the French Open there wouldn't have been a huge rush to back the American to win the title here at Wimbledon.

Being a multiple time former Wimbledon Champion always made Serena Williams a threat, but the feeling was that somebody would get the better of a player that has not been on the Tour very much in the last twenty months.

Instead the women's draw has seen the top names falling all around Serena Williams and her own performances have remained steady enough to think she gets the better of the enigmatic Italian Camila Giorgi.

I like the way Giorgi plays at times, but she is inconsistent to say the least although I have rarely seen her overawed in matches. I don't think Giorgi will hold much trepidation in taking on Williams on the show courts at Wimbledon and she hits the ball big enough to give Serena plenty to think about.

Ultimately I do worry about the Double Faults and whether Giorgi will be able to hold her game together for a couple of sets to earn the upset. Instead I think one set will be quite competitive but I would fear for Giorgi if she falls behind after giving a big effort and from there I would look for Serena Williams to take over the match.

The Williams serve should keep Giorgi at bay for long enough to cover a big number while I do think any gifts will be accepted without any issues by the American. Giorgi has done very well to reach the Quarter Final which makes her dangerous, but Serena Williams has been a comfortable winner in her matches without always looking at her best and the aura around the former World Number 1 is still helping overcome opponents.

I don't think Giorgi will be scared to take on Williams at Wimbledon, but ultimately I think it is the inconsistency which costs the former in this one.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 37-36, - 1.52 Units (146 Units Staked, - 1.04% Yield)

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