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Saturday 21 July 2018

Boxing Picks 2018- Oleksandr Usyk vs Murat Gassiev (July 21st)

2018 has been a really good year for Boxing fans but the best fight we may get to see in the calendar year may be the Cruiserweight Final of the World Boxing Super Series.

That is a big shout when you think Canelo vs GGG 2 is yet to take place and I have no doubt that may produce the bigger numbers, but this Cruiserweight Final looks really good and features two boxers who could be mixing with the big boys of the Heavyweight Division.

The winner absolutely will be propelled into a big time title shot at Heavyweight within eighteen months, while whoever loses will have the time to rebuild considering the performances produced in the World Boxing Super Series.


There was some scepticism about how the tournament would work in practice when it was first announced, especially as previous tournaments had not really worked as well as the organisers had hoped. But the Cruiserweight and Super Middleweight events were strong and it has all led to this moment as the first of those tournaments is concluded.

The success has whetted the appetite of the fans and the announcement of two very good looking fields at Bantamweight and Light Welterweight is only further good news for the fans. I am writing this before the Draft Gala has been completed, but I think both tournaments are going to set up some huge fights over the next twelve months which is great news for us Boxing fans.


The Usyk-Gassiev fight absolutely is stealing the headlines, but Liam Smith is also in action this weekend as he takes on Jaime Munguia for the WBO Light Middleweight World Title. Smith is a former holder of that belt and has some huge fights in front of him if he can upset Munguia who announced himself in a big way by hammering Sadam Ali back in May.

Munguia is clearly looking to fulfil his mandatory and then take up some huge fights in a stacked Division, but Smith has every chance of upsetting the odds in my opinion. Beefy has already spoken about fighting at Anfield and defending a World Title there, but I don't think he is overlooking the man in front of him and Munguia still has a lot to prove before people really have to accept he is for real.


Fedor Chudinov vs Nadjib Mohammedi
One of the main undercard bouts for the Usyk-Gassiev card features a former World Champion in Fedor Chudinov defending his WBA International Title against an opponent who has mixed in some very prestigious company.

Nadjib Mohammedi has fought the likes of Sergey Kovalev and Oleksandr Gvozdyk at Light Heavyweight, but he is coming back down in weight to take on Chudinov at Super Middleweight.

The last three fights Mohammedi has had have been back down at Super Middleweight, but this is another step up from the kind of level he has been operating at.

Chudinov is best known in the United Kingdom for being stopped by George Groves for the WBA World Title but he has come back strong and this kind of level is one on which he is comfortable. I am not sure Chudinov will ever be a World Champion in what has traditionally been a tough Division, but a win will get him back into position to have another shot perhaps against the World Boxing Super Series winner and a rematch against George Groves or even a chance to take on new Regular Champion Rocky Fielding.

I think the Russian will be able to win this fight on home soil and I think Mohammedi has found it tough when he has taken the step up in competition. Being stopped by the likes of Kovalev and Gvozdyk is no shame for any boxer, but that does mean four of his five losses have come with a stoppage and Chudinov has enough pop to do the same.

I will be having a small interest in Chudinov getting it done inside the distance in this undercard bout.


Oleksandr Usyk vs Murat Gassiev
This has to be the most exciting fight of the year as the World Boxing Super Series Cruiserweight tournament comes to a close with the potential to unify all four titles in this Division.

This will be the second Division which has all the belts being held by one fighter having seen Terence Crawford do the same at Light Welterweight earlier in the year, but the potential for the winner of Oleksandr Usyk and Murat Gassiev is arguably even bigger than Crawford's.

Ultimately the Heavyweight Division is the star Division in Boxing and the winner of this one will propel themselves into that Division and into the big fights from the off.

I'm guessing most Boxing fans are feeling what Usyk did before his Semi Final against Mairis Briedes.

'I am feel. I am very feel'.

No one will be underestimating Murat Gassiev who has had two impressive wins to move into the Final himself and the closer the fight has come the more people seem to have fallen behind the young Russian. Being trained alongside Gennady Golovkin has only helped Gassiev who has all the tools to come back even if he was to lose this fight.

With that in mind I do feel there is more on the line for Usyk who has to be a road warrior for the third time in this tournament and being Ukrainian will be put under more pressure by the Russian home crowd. I don't think that will bother Usyk at all and I think he is the all around superior boxer, although Gassiev may have the edge when it comes to the power stakes.

Usyk is the older man and it will be that much tougher to rebuild with a strong reputation he has from the amateurs when opponents simply won't want to fight him coming off a loss. He still has time to do that, but I think it will be 'easier' for Gassiev to bounce back and that additional motivation for Usyk may just tip him over the edge in what looks like being a 'Fight of the Year contender'.

The layers are finding it hard to split the fighters now and I think it will come down to one of two scenarios.

Either Gassiev finds the big punches to slow down Usyk and stop him late or I think the Ukrainian will just use his superior angles and shot selection to just pepper Gassiev back and win this one on points.

Controversy is a concern with a Ukrainian fighting in Moscow and all the political tensions between the two countries, but I think the World Boxing Super Series banner will erase the chance of a 'dodgy scorecard' from ruining what has been a fabulous tournament.

My feeling from day one of this tournament was that it was a coming out party for Usyk before the move up to Heavyweight to take on the really big challenges out there. I still lean towards him, although Gassiev has arguably been the most impressive fighter in the tournament and I think Usyk does enough to win this one on points.

However I will just back him to win the fight in any way at odds against.


Jaime Munguia vs Liam Smith
The WBO Light Middleweight Title is on the line in Las Vegas as Jaime Munguia defends the Title he won by hammering Sadam Ali back in May.

It should have been Liam Smith taking on Ali, but the British fighter had to pull out just two weeks before the event and Munguia took full advantage.

That was the end of a remarkable month for the young Mexican who was deemed 'not worthy' to fight Gennady Golovkin for the Middleweight Title in replacement of Canelo Alvarez. He then showed enough against Ali to really raise his stock and now he is a huge favourite to beat Liam Smith, far shorter than he was against Ali when he was a slight underdog.

I am not sure I buy into that just yet.

Liam Smith may not be a world beater, but he is a former World Champion and his one loss has come against Canelo. He hasn't exactly lit things up since then with his three wins, especially as two of them were very close against Liam Williams.

In saying that he is the toughest fight Munguia would have had and I think Beefy is not as big an underdog as the layers think he should be.

This is the toughest test Munguia would have had and I am not going to anoint him the next big thing in boxing for obliterating what was effectively a Welterweight at Light Middle. I expect Smith to weather an early storm and then perhaps see a tired Munguia down the stretch struggling once his power is perhaps not what it was and I will back the Liverpudlian to once again become a World Champion.

MY PICKS: Fedor Chudinov to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oleksandr Usyk @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Liam Smith @ 7.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018 Update17-32, + 4.90 Units (75 Units Staked, + 6.53% Yield)

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