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Thursday, 12 July 2018

Wimbledon Tennis Day 11 Picks 2018 (July 13th)

Wimbledon 2018 has been a tournament of upsets, especially on the women's side of the event, but the biggest was reserved for the men's Quarter Final as Roger Federer blew a 2-0 lead in sets and a match point in the third set to eventually go down to a five set defeat to Kevin Anderson.

For a long time it looked like Roger Federer was peaking to win another Wimbledon title, but now the favourite has to be the winner of what could be a classic Semi Final between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.

Another big serving match looks likely to develop when Anderson takes on John Isner on Friday as we get down to the last couple of days of this tournament as well as the 2018 World Cup Finals which are concluded on the same day as Wimbledon comes to a close.

It has been a mixed tournament for the Tennis Picks but one that will be decided in the next three days. A strong end to the Wimbledon tournament would mean putting some more positive numbers in the season totals.

The next month will then bring in a couple of the hard court events as attention turns to the fourth Grand Slam of the season which begins in six weeks time, but we also have a final European clay court swing in the weeks ahead.

For now the concentration is trying to find four more winners from the remaining Wimbledon matches at the 2018 tournament.

John Isner v Kevin Anderson: Both of the men's Semi Finals are considered highly competitive matches and the layers are finding it very difficult to separate the four players involved.

The first match I am looking at is what is expected to be the big serving contest between John Isner and Kevin Anderson with both players in a bit of a difficult spot mentally.

John Isner has had some strong runs at Grand Slams in the past but a limited return game has held him back from having a really big impact before this Wimbledon event. It has been strange to see him going so deep into the draw when you think of the poor record he has at Wimbledon despite having a monster of a serve and that is down to being forced to dig deep to win matches which can tire out the big American.

Isner had only previously reached just one Quarter Final at Grand Slam level which is remarkable when you think of the serve alone. It has been a long time since that Quarter Final from the 2011 US Open, but Isner is playing with some freedom and will have enjoyed the fact he has dropped just a single set in the last three Rounds while also seeing off another big server in Milos Raonic in the Quarter Final.

A lack of success at the Grand Slam level had been Kevin Anderson's issue despite becoming a regular in the second week of these big events. However he made his breakthrough by reaching the US Open Final last September and that will hold Anderson in good stead in this one.

However he is coming off a huge emotional and physical effort to beat Wimbledon legend Roger Federer in the Quarter Final and having to play twenty-four games in the fifth set will have taken something away from Anderson. He can fall back on a huge serve of his own to try and get through games quickly, but Anderson will find it tough to bring the same intensity into this one after such a huge career win.

These two have not played one another since 2015, but it is Isner who has dominated the head to head. That didn't matter for Roger Federer against a much improved Kevin Anderson, but factoring in that win may mean Anderson has just left something on the court after back to back long, tough matches.

Both players have produced some very good tennis to reach this Semi Final, but the feeling I have is that Isner may have a little more pop on his serve for a little longer than Anderson. That could be the small percentage which helps Isner get past the South African and reach a maiden Grand Slam Final of his own this time around.

Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal: There are going to be plenty of people out there who will consider this the 'real' Wimbledon Final when Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal step onto Centre Court to play one another for the first time since the 2011 Wimbledon Final.

Both players have looked really strong going through the draw although it is Nadal who was forced into an epic Quarter Final match against Juan Martin Del Potro which has to be factored into this one. He spent well over four hours on the court in the Quarter Final and had to come from 2-1 down in sets to win that match and it is a big ask for Nadal to recover and be ready to face someone who is arguably superior on this surface.

For Novak Djokovic the big challenge is to hold the emotions together as he has already produced his best performance at a Grand Slam since losing in the 2016 US Open Final. It is funny to think the last time he won a Grand Slam was the 2016 French Open to complete his set and it was clear the emotional effort to win that tournament took something out of the tank for the former World Number 1.

It has been a long road back for Djokovic with an injury curtailing his 2017 season and there have been some ups and downs in 2018. However I have been mentioning for a while that I feel Djokovic is approaching his best and the last month on the grass courts have shown there is a player here who is feeling much better about his overall game.

The numbers have backed that up with strong serving backed up by the kind of returning that Djokovic was producing between 2014 and June 2016 when he won six of the ten Grand Slams in which he competed. Those numbers are going to be put to the test by the current World Number 1 Rafael Nadal who has been in fantastic form at Wimbledon after winning yet another Grand Slam title at the French Open six weeks ago.

Nadal's numbers have also been very strong and there is no doubt this is going to be a very good match to watch and a very close one to call.

The length of the Quarter Final win over Del Potro can't be ignored, but I also know Nadal is one of the fittest players on the Tour and it hasn't been a really taxing tournament before that match. That means I am expecting Nadal at his best, but Djokovic was able to give him something to think about in their recent clay court encounter in Rome and this surface may suit the Serb more than the Spaniard.

I won't be surprised if this match needs four and potentially five sets to separate them, but I am going to back Djokovic to get the better of Nadal and I think it will be Djokovic playing in his first Grand Slam Final in almost two years.

MY PICKS: John Isner @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 43-40, + 1.54 Units (166 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

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