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Saturday, 27 July 2019

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 27th)

Friday has been a long day which means I am ready to get on with the selections from the Semi Final matches.

Those can be seen below after what was a positive day to begin to put a better slant on what has been a difficult week for the Tennis Picks.

Andrey Rublev v Pablo Carreno Busta: The Semi Final in Hamburg may not have been one that too many would have tipped up at the start of this ATP 500 event, but both Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta deserve their place in the final four. Both players have knocked off a couple of Seeded players in their run to the Semi Final, but Andrey Rublev's win over Dominic Thiem looks the best either player has produced.

In saying that, Pablo Carreno Busta will be feeling very good about his level of performances which have helped him get past both Jan-Lennard Struff and Fabio Fognini in the last two matches. The Spaniard made life a little difficult for himself in the win over Fognini having failed to take sixteen break points, but he came through a final set tie-breaker and the only downside is that there is a potential fatigue worry for him ahead of this Semi Final.

Part of the problem for Carreno Busta is that his serve is still not firing as well as he would like which means having to work hard to recover deficits in sets. He did manage to do that in set two and set three of the win over Fabio Fognini in the Quarter Final and also in the second set of his win over Jan-Lennard Struff, but that does mean he is giving up more emotionally and physically than he perhaps would like.

In this tournament Pablo Carreno Busta has won 60% of points behind serve which has led to 74% of his service games being held. The reason he has managed to turn matches around is because the Spaniard has won 45% of return points played, which has led to breaks in 37% of return games, but now he has to deal with the Andrey Rublev serve which has been about as effective as it can be on the clay courts with 67% of points won behind that shot.

Where Pablo Carreno Busta has been returning much better over the last week than in 2019 in general, Andrey Rublev has been a little more solid behind serve than his overall numbers. The Russian has broken in 29% of return games and he has played well enough to believe he can challenge the Pablo Carreno Busta serve which has not been firing at a high level.

These two players have not played since 2015, but Andrey Rublev won both matches between them on the Tour. He has been the superior server in those matches and I believe it is going to be the serving that can see the youngster surprisingly make his way through to the Final in Hamburg.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka-Alex De Minaur Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.38 Units (28 Units Staked, - 4.93% Yield)

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