Wimbledon Tennis Day 9 Picks 2019 (July 10th)

The women's Semi Final line up was put together on Tuesday at Wimbledon and it was more disappointment for Johanna Konta.

After a tough few months I do think Konta has a lot to be proud of after reaching the Semi Final at the French Open and now the Quarter Final at Wimbledon, but there is obviously some room for improvement to take the next step in her career. I wasn't impressed with some of the questioning from the media which was as patronising as Konta felt it was, but the British Number 1 should look at the last two months as a big positive to take into the North American hard court swing which begins later this month.


While the tournament is over as far as British hopes go in the Singles events, the four players in the Ladies Semi Final should produce a good end to Wimbledon. I think all four will be confident they can win the title here, but Serena Williams is rightly the favourite considering her successes on the surface compared with the other three left. Simona Halep, Elina Svitolina and Barbora Strycova have all had strong tournaments, but Williams is the stand out player and I do think she is going to end up tying Margaret Court's record number of Slams on Saturday afternoon.


Now it is the turn of the men who play their Quarter Final matches across Centre Court and Court One on Wednesday. Most fans will have their fingers crossed that we are going to see Rafael Nadal versus Roger Federer on Friday in what has the making of a blockbuster Semi Final, but Novak Djokovic looks to have the path in front of him to be in great condition to defend the title he won twelve months ago.

After a 3-1 Day 9 for the Tennis Picks, I do think Wednesday is going to be the day for the favourites as I look to add to the numbers for the week. All four have some big numbers to cover, but I do believe they are in the better form than their opponents and can find the breaks of serve to get into a position to beat the handicap marks set.

You can see my thoughts and breakdowns below and also the updated record from Wimbledon 2019.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v Guido Pella: The top half of the men's draw at Wimbledon always felt like one from which Novak Djokovic was going to emerge for the Final. Outside of the defending Champion, the upsets have come thick and fast through the rest of this half of the draw and that means there is a massive opportunity for Roberto Bautista Agut and Guido Pella to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final when they meet in this Quarter Final on Wednesday.

Guido Pella should be given a lot of respect as someone who has managed to work through three Rounds as the underdog. His wins over Andres Seppi, Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic have all come from that spot and more impressive is the fact that in the last two Rounds he has beaten two former Wimbledon Finalists.

It has not been an easy road for Pella with two five set wins in four matches played and the accumulated fatigue has to be an issue for him even with the day of rest between the Fourth Round and Quarter Final. While not having the best grass court pedigree, Pella has to be respected for some of the results achieved in the last twelve months on the surface as he also can add Marin Cilic's name to Anderson and Raonic as former Wimbledon Runners Up he has beaten at the tournament.

Any player who wins four matches in a row has to be considered in good form, but I will have to point out that Pella has not been dominant in any of his wins and three of the matches could have easily gone another way. The Argentinian is serving about as well as he can, but he has faced at least nine break points in each of his last three matches and I do wonder if he can continue to bite down and produce so much quality in those big moments.

If there is an issue with accumulated fatigue, this may not be an ideal opponent for Guido Pella. Roberto Bautista Agut is someone who will be happy to get involved in the longer rallies and the Spaniard has been producing numbers at a considerably higher level than Pella in the tournament so far.

The Spaniard was in good form in Halle in the only grass court tournament he took in before Wimbledon began and he has worked his way through the draw here without breaking too much of a sweat. Roberto Bautista Agut is yet to drop a set in the tournament and he has only been broken twice in four matches which isn't a surprise when you think of how well he he has been serving both here and in Halle.

It has allowed Bautista Agut to open up on the return of serve and he has created at least nine break points in each match played at Wimbledon. He has converted at least three in each match too and Bautista Agut is someone who is going to put the Pella serve under severe examination compared to returners like Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic.

These two players have met twice before and Bautista Agut has been able to break in 55% of return games against the Pella serve which is likely going to be something that the two players are somewhat aware of. On a grass court it is very unlikely that Bautista Agut will get to that number, but there should be a confidence in the Spaniard's mind that he can get to the Pella serve.

Roberto Bautista Agut has also held in 84% of service games played against Guido Pella and his serving here this past ten days suggests he can keep that going. It is unlikely to be a match that quickly runs away in one direction, but I think the constant pressure is going to be provided by Bautista Agut and he can break down and wear down Guido Pella as he moves into a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final and also covers this number on the handicap.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v David Goffin: The defending Champion was always likely to be heading into Wimbledon as the favourite, but that position was only strengthened when the draw for the tournament was made. Novak Djokovic has not been pushed too far in the first four Rounds of the event and he is very much expected to come out of the top half of the draw to make the Final on Sunday.

This might be the more awkward of the potential matches left for Novak Djokovic when he meets David Goffin, a former top 10 player who has impressed over the last month on the grass courts.

The Belgian has not had as routine a path through to the Quarter Final as Djokovic, but the fact that Goffin has reached this Round will be a boost for a player that has had an inconsistent 2019 so far. It follows on from his run to the Halle Final in June, although I would worry about needing five sets in the Third Round and four sets in the Fourth Round when it comes to how much tennis Goffin is likely going to need to play to win a match like this one.

David Goffin is going to be very happy with his serving through the first four matches, but there is little doubt that this is going to be the biggest test of that weapon. Daniil Medvedev put Goffin under pressure with the return in the Third Round which needed five sets to separate them, but now he has to deal with Novak Djokovic who has consistently won at least 40% of return points on the grass since June 2017.

The match up has been a good one for Djokovic against Goffin too with breaks of serve in 30% of return games against the Belgian. That is significantly better than Goffin's number of 16% in the same category against Djokovic and I do think the difference in returning and serving will be a crucial difference on the day.

So far in the tournament Djokovic has shown the serve is working very effectively with at least 71% points won behind serve in each of the four matches played. In the last two Rounds Novak Djokovic has not been broken and he has created at least nine break points in each of the matches played and I do think it is going to be difficult for Goffin to really challenge those numbers.

He is the best returner Djokovic has faced in the tournament so Goffin should have his successes, but the latter has not played any tennis on the big two courts at Wimbledon and the conditions have been different there. Novak Djokovic is well used to the surroundings and that is also going to be a factor as I think the World Number 1 is going to be able to pull clear for a good looking win in this Quarter Final.

There will be some quality tennis on show and I do think Goffin will play his part, but the Belgian is 2-10 in matches against top 20 players on the grass and he is 1-7 when facing top 10 opponents. In the matches against top 10 players, Goffin has held in only 73% of his service games and broken in 12% of return games played. There have been some competitive losses, but I think the match up looks a tough one for him and Novak Djokovic should be able to win one set with two more breaks of serve than David Goffin which can set him up for a win and a cover in this Quarter Final.


Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The chance has presented itself for Kei Nishikori to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final outside of the US Open as he reached the Quarter Final at a fifth Slam in a row. It is far from an easy opportunity for Nishikori as he takes on Roger Federer for a place in the Friday Semi Final, and I am not surprised that Federer is a clear favourite to make it past the Japanese star.

I do think Nishikori will come into the match with some confidence having dropped a single set in the tournament so far. He should have made life easier in the fourth set of his win over Mikhail Kukushkin in the Fourth Round, but Nishikori should have plenty of belief in his chances of upsetting Roger Federer.

In the first three Rounds Nishikori had been dominant behind the serve which set up three comfortable wins, but Kukushkin pushed him in the last Round. Kei Nishikori is going to need to produce his best serving effort to have a chance of the upset in this match, but he is going up against Roger Federer playing some of the best tennis out there at Wimbledon.

Since dropping the first set against Lloyd Harris, Roger Federer has won twelve sets in a row and he has largely been very, very dominant. There still have to be some questions about the returning Federer is able to produce, but he has found his best form on that side of his game in the tournament and the bigger positive for him has to be the efficient way he has been dealing with the break points that have been produced.

It is going to be that kind of returning that could put Nishikori under huge pressure especially as Federer is serving as well as anyone left in the draw. Roger Federer has only been broken in two games in four matches played at Wimbledon and I do think it will be very difficult for Nishikori to get into some of those games despite the form he has shown in his return games over the last ten days.

That is especially the case when you think Kei Nishikori has broken in just 13% of return games played against top 10 Ranked players on the grass. In those matches he is holding just 76% of service games played too and I think the Roger Federer serve is going to open things up for the former eight time Champion to have a really free look at the return of serve.

Kei Nishikori did stun Roger Federer on an indoor court at the ATP Finals last November in their last match, but in general he has struggled to match the former World Number 1. They have met ten times previously and Nishikori has held just 72% of his service games played compared with Federer's 84% number and I think we will see a difference between them in this Quarter Final too.

Their sole previous match on the grass came in 2014 in Halle that Federer won in straight sets. It was a competitive match with Federer's serve making the slight difference on the day and I think he is in the form to back that up here. With the serving seeing Federer come through more difficult moments than Nishikori, I can see the eight time Wimbledon Champion eventually pulling away for a strong win.


Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Sam Querrey: Yet another competent grass courter from down the years is standing in front of Rafael Nadal as Wimbledon reaches the Quarter Final Round in the men's draw. So far Nadal has handled the tough opponents with wonderful aplomb, but Sam Querrey is playing with plenty of confidence having reached the Final in Eastbourne just a couple of days before Wimbledon began.

The American missed the entirety of the European clay court season, but it has turned out to be an effective decision as he has rolled through Wimbledon with just two sets dropped. It does have to be said that Sam Querrey has benefited from the kind of draw that I would have expected him to negotiate, but now the step up in level of competition won't be lost on him.

Much will depend on how big Querrey can serve on Wednesday as that continues to be the foundation on which his successes are built. In Eastbourne he held 92% of his service games through the tournament and that enables Querrey to free his arms when it comes to having a go at breaking an opponent's serve which he had been doing fairly regularly on the south coast of England.

The serve has continued to be a huge weapon for Querrey at Wimbledon as he has won at least 73% of service points played in each of the four matches here. In the last three Rounds the American has improved that number each time from 73 to 74 to 75 and he will be aware that a strong serving day is needed here. Sam Querrey should be confident having been broken just once in four matches, although he has faced at least four break points in three of those wins.

Now he has to take on Rafael Nadal who has been returning very effectively throughout the tournament except when he played Nick Kyrgios. That is the blueprint for Querrey if he is going to upset the odds, but Kyrgios played a care-free brand of tennis that I am not convinced the American will in yet another Grand Slam Quarter Final for him.

Rafael Nadal has broken each of his opponents at least twice at Wimbledon and the way he managed to break down Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has to be the way he wants to approach this one. Once he gets into rallies of four or more shots, Nadal will feel the edge is very much with him and the Spaniard has returned at a high level on the grass since June 2017.

It is the Nadal serve that should build the pressure in this one as he has won at least 78% of service points played in each of the last three Rounds after opening up with a 70% number in his win over Yuichi Sugita in the First Round. The performances have been such that Nadal has not even faced a break point in the last two Rounds and I think it will be a factor in helping him cover this big handicap mark against a player who has wins over Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray at Wimbledon before.

It was Sam Querrey who won their last match back in 2017, but the overall numbers show that he has been able to hold 74% of his service games compared to Rafael Nadal at 87%. If you take their three matches not played on the clay courts, which all came on the hard courts, those numbers change to 80% and 89% with Rafael Nadal the latter number.

The challenge for Sam Querrey is to make sure he can keep the pressure on Rafael Nadal with the huge serving he can produce. If he gets into a rhythm it will be a very tough match for the Spaniard, but effectively we have seen he is able to exert enough control from his return of serve to force Querrey to beat him on the ground and eventually I would think Nadal is too much for him.

This is a huge number of games to cover if Sam Querrey is serving to his very best level, but I think Rafael Nadal might be the best performer at Wimbledon in the men's tournament. He looks to be peaking towards the Final and Nadal has come through a much tougher set of matches than anyone else and with a dominant set of results behind him.

In previous matches, Rafael Nadal might have dropped sets to Sam Querrey but he has eventually worn down the American and found the breaks of serve to turn those matches in his favour. I think something similar could happen in this Quarter Final and I will look for Rafael Nadal to make it four from four for the favourites in this Quarter Final Round.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 50-37, + 19.12 Units (174 Units Staked, + 10.99% Yield)