Wimbledon Tennis Day 4 Picks 2019 (July 4th)

Wednesday was a pretty miserable day as far as the Tennis Picks go, but I am looking to bounce back on Thursday.

You can read the Tennis Picks below for the day's play. I have some analysis of a few of the Second Round matches to be played as I look to turn around a poor start to the Round.


Roger Federer - 9.5 games v Jay Clarke: The Second Round of a Grand Slam is still a time when the top Seeds will be looking to make comfortable progress through to the Third Round to ensure they are not expending too much energy at this stage of a two week tournament. After dropping his first set at Wimbledon on Tuesday, Roger Federer dominated Lloyd Harris through the remainder of the match and he should be very happy with the draw for the Second Round.

That is no disrespect to Jay Clarke, but the British player has perhaps already exceeded expectations by winning his first match at Wimbledon. He also came through in four sets on Tuesday against Noah Rubin, but Clarke has had a minimal impact on the grass over the last month as he has also been suffering with some health issues.

He won't be expecting to beat the eight time Wimbledon Champion, but Clarke has to enjoy the experience and see whether he can rattle someone who is very comfortable in SW19. The match is being scheduled for Court One on Thursday, but Federer will be very familiar with both of the top two show courts at Wimbledon and I don't think it will take him too long to adjust to playing outside of Centre Court which has become his court over the last twenty years.

Roger Federer did admit to some early nerves in his victory over Harris in the First Round, but I also think the conditions are not as fast as he would have liked. He still served very well with 79% of points won behind serve and that opened up the returning for a player that has declined in that side of his game as he continues to approach his 40th birthday.

Before this tournament began, Jay Clarke had lost all four matches played on the grass and he was only holding 66% of his service games. In the last couple of losses Clarke had suffered a 6-1 defeat in a single set in both matches and my feeling is that Federer is going to be able to put something like that on the scoreboard which should give him every chance to cover what is a very big number.

I would expect the Federer serve to continue to allow the former World Number 1 to open up on the return and it will need Clarke to play way above his level to make this competitive. Seeing Roger Federer entertain the crowd with something like a 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 kind of scoreline in this Second Round match would not be a big surprise and I will look for Federer to cover the handicap mark and make serene progress into the Third Round.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: As soon as the draw for Wimbledon was made late last week the first thing that was drawn to the eyes was the potential of seeing Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios meet in the Second Round. These two had something of a falling out after a match in Acapulco earlier this year, but the difference of opinion between the two players was laid bare by Nick Kyrgios when joining a podcast on the eve of the French Open.

That has been doubled down by the Australian after his First Round win over Jordan Thompson when he admitted Nadal and himself would be unlikely to 'go for a beer' together although it has to be said there is plenty of respect between the players for what they can produce on the court.

I do expect to see Kyrgios try and get under Nadal's skin so I would look out for an early underarm serve or two, which in turn could open up the big serves into the body for the Australian. It could be a key battle, but much is going to depend on Kyrgios and which side of bed he gets out of and that is something that we simply won't know until the match begins.

Now that might suggest this match is going to be on the racquet of Kyrgios, but that is not the case. Their most famous match may have come at Wimbledon when Nick Kyrgios stunned Rafael Nadal in four sets as a teenager, but the numbers have mainly been in favour of the Spaniard even when these two have met on the grass or hard courts.

It is no surprise Nadal has dominated Kyrgios in their two clay court matches, but the faster surfaces are more relevant. In those four matches, Nick Kyrgios has won three of them although the numbers show that Rafael Nadal has been a little unfortunate not to be at 2-2 in those matches.

Nick Kyrgios may have won their hard court match earlier this year, but Rafael Nadal will be ruing the missed break points he had in that match. He will know how difficult it can be to break the Kyrgios serve on grass considering the Australian has won 90% of service game played on the surface throughout his career, but Kyrgios is just 4-7 in matches against top 20 Ranked players.

He continues to hold at a very high rate, but the Kyrgios return can be a weakness and Rafael Nadal has shown he is very good at holding serve on the grass over the last couple of years. I think that makes a difference in this one considering Nadal did hold 95% of his service games against Kyrgios in their sole grass court match in 2014 and is at 88% in their three hard court matches.

I would not be surprised if there are some tense moments in this one, especially when Kyrgios gets up to his antics to try and rattle Nadal. I also would not be surprised to see a tie-breaker, but Kyrgios has had some health issues and I think Rafael Nadal is going to be serving and returning well enough to see a player perhaps let his mind drift as has been a weakness for Kyrgios in recent years.

This should be a fun match, but I think Nadal can be backed to cover the handicap and win this one.


Jan-Lennard Struff-Taylor Fritz over 41.5 games: Neither Jan-Lennard Struff nor Taylor Fritz have had the kind of success on the grass courts they would have liked in the last couple of years, but both come into this Second Round match in very good form. The conditions in Wimbledon sound about as slow as they have ever been, but these two players have very strong serves which should make it very difficult to expect to see a lot of breaks during the course of the match.

Taylor Fritz is playing his best grass court tennis of his career heading into the Second Round. He won the title in Eastbourne last week and only dropped a set during the five matches he played. He continued the hot serving against former Wimbledon Finalist Tomas Berdych in the First Round as the American comfortably moved through in straight sets, but there is no doubt this is a big step up from an opponent who had not played competitive tennis for a few months.

While he has not won a title, Jan-Lennard Struff showed some strong form in the lead up to Wimbledon with some good wins put together. Like Fritz, Struff is very much basing the foundation of his success on a strong serve which shifts pressure onto opponents and also frees up his own arm when it comes to the return of serve.

The German was a dominant winner in the First Round and came into Wimbledon holding 93% of his service games played on the grass courts. He faced just three break points in the First Round and Struff was not broken on the day and the expectation is he will make it difficult for Fritz who has won just 34% of return points in 2018 and 33% in 2019 while also breaking serve in only 16% of return games played.

At the same time Fritz has held 88% of his own service games on the surface over the last month and was very effective behind serve in the First Round win over Berdych. The Struff returning numbers are slightly weaker in terms of points won compared with Fritz, but the German has also managed to break in 16% of return games and was very comfortable against the weaker Albot serve in the First Round.

Both players should be able to rattle through their service games in this one and I do think a single break of serve will secure sets for whichever of the two players is able to earn that. I would not be surprised to see at least one tie-breaker in this one and the form of both players makes it very difficult to believe this mach is going to end in straight sets either way.

If we do get into a fourth set I think that will be enough to surpass this number of games as I would then imagine at least two tie-breakers will be needed when you consider the way Struff and Fritz have been serving. That is backed up by what has been limited returning produced by both players and I am going to look for the total games line to be surpassed in this one.


Gilles Simon - 6.5 games v Tennys Sandgren: Covering a number like this one is not going to be easy for Gilles Simon, but this has been a good match up for him in the past and there has been enough solid grass court play from the Frenchman to believe in him here. That isn't a position I am always comfortable in, especially with the number of games being asked of Simon to cover, but there is enough for me to back him in this spot.

The Frenchman was the Runner Up at Queens Club in the build up to Wimbledon, while he also reached the Quarter Final in Eastbourne to back up that performance in London. There is no doubt that it is hard to really feel comfortable backing someone to cover a handicap like this one when you consider the struggles Gilles Simon can have on his serve, but he has held 81% of service games on the grass in 2019.

That number is not one that is going to lead to too many deep runs at Wimbledon, but Simon has broken in 22% of return games to back it up. Gilles Simon was a comfortable winner in the First Round as he got some revenge on Salvotore Caruso, a player who had beaten Simon at the French Open a few weeks ago.

Now he faces American Tennys Sandgren who does not have a lot of grass court pedigree to speak of and who has struggled to reach the heights of his breakthrough on the Tour at the Australian Open eighteen months ago. The American is 3-1 on the grass courts in 2019, but he had held serve in just 78% of his service games prior to his First Round win over Yasutaka Uchiyama and that includes a heavy loss to Gilles Simon.

These two players have met twice before and that includes their match in Eastbourne last week. Gilles Simon has held only 78% of his service games in those matches, but he has been very comfortable returning the Tennys Sandgren serve with the American holding in just 42% of his own service games.

Last week Gilles Simon had slightly superior numbers in both serve and return in their match on the grass courts and I do think he can cover what looks a very big number on the face of things. I would be surprised if there aren't a couple of swings in momentum within a set of tennis, but Gilles Simon should secure a set with a couple of breaks of serve considering how he has matched up with Tennys Sandgren.

If the Frenchman can do that, I think he will be in a position to cover this number and I will back him to do that.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Kaja Juvan: The first thing you have to say about Serena Williams is that she still does not look at 100%, but the American has to feel her grass court experiences will always give her a chance to win Wimbledon. Serena Williams has won multiple Wimbledon titles, but I think it says a lot that she has decided to partner Andy Murray in the Mixed Doubles as to what her expectations are in the Singles tournament in SW19 this fortnight.

The section of the draw looks a very difficult one for Serena Williams to negotiate, although I do think the draw has been a kind one to her. That is no disrespect to Kaja Juvan, especially after seeing Guilia Gatto-Monticone push Serena Williams in the First Round, but it would be a monumental upset if the Slovenian can win this match.

Kaja Juvan has not played a lot of grass court tennis, but she did Qualify for Mallorca before exiting in the First Round. Backing that up was winning three matches to Qualify for Wimbledon and then upsetting Krystina Pliskova in the First Round, but that was a close match that could have gone either way and this is a significant step up for her.

She has played a lot of tennis over the last week having needed three sets to win three of her four matches in Qualification and the First Round at Wimbledon. One of those matches saw Juvan play eighteen games before moving through to the next Round and now I would expect Serena Williams to pressure the Slovenian like she has not experienced before.

The American former World Number 1 is still searching for a Grand Slam to match Margaret Court's 24 Slams won which is perhaps weighing down on her a little more than Serena Williams would like to let on. It is certainly something that might potentially be playing a part in her lack of form, although the bigger issue is the knee issue despite Williams telling the press she is feeling as good as she has at any time in 2019.

Serena Williams is looking for players to push her so she is ready to face some of the top names in the women's game going forward, but she will want to make an easier path through to the Third Round than she had in the First Round. She did return well enough to believe she can overcome someone with as little experience on the grass as Juvan has had and I will back Serena Williams to cover the handicap mark in this one.


Julia Goerges - 5.5 games v Varvara Flink: Last year Julia Goerges reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon to back up what had been a third pretty strong showing on the grass courts. Getting back to that stage won't be easy in the top half of the draw, but I do think the German will be a player that can produce a comfortable win in the Second Round that can take her through to a potential rematch with Serena Williams.

Julia Goerges reached the Final in Birmingham a couple of weeks ago to show she is someone that can back up her performance in SW19 twelve months ago. The first serve has remained a big weapon for Goerges and it is expected to be a key shot for her in this Second Round match against Qualifier Varvara Flink.

The Russian is about to reach a new high in terms of her World Ranking once the new list is released at the end of Wimbledon. Varvara Flink has won three Qualifiers on the grass and then beat a fellow Qualifier in the First Round to earn her run to this match, although there is no doubt she is taking on a player that performs at a much higher level in normal circumstances.

In the run to the Second Round which has seen Varvara Flink win four matches she is yet to face someone Ranked in the top 100. Facing a top 20 Ranked opponent could be a real eye opener for Flink even though Julia Goerges can perhaps struggle on the return more than someone with a game as big as she possesses should.

Julia Goerges has tended to dominate the opponents Ranked outside the top 100 that she has faced on the grass courts. I would think we are going to see more of the same in this Second Round match as I think Goerges can put Varvara Flink under intense pressure from the serve.

That should see the Russian player collapse on serve in a couple of games and Julia Goerges can use the advantage to earn at least one more break of serve over the course of the match. It is a big spread to cover for a player who has won 42% of return points against opponents on the grass courts in 2019, but Goerges has not been in front of a player she should dominate like the one she faces on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff-Taylor Fritz Over 41.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julia Goerges @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Qiang Wang - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lucas Poulle - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 22-18, + 3.58 Units (80 Units Staked, + 4.47 % Yield)