Wimbledon Tennis Day 7 Picks 2019 (July 8th)

The only Grand Slam event that plays the entire Fourth Round on a single day means there is no Tennis on Sunday. Manic Monday is considered one of the finest days on the Tour with so many quality matches being played over a several hour period and Wimbledon has to be very proud of the line up that is in front of them in 2019.

In the last few years the men's game has perhaps been leading the headlines on Manic Monday, but this year it really does feel like the women's Fourth Round is the more interesting Round of the two being played.

There are some big matches ahead in the men's draw that will definitely earn the headlines later in the week, but I think the women's tournament has lived up to top billing too and this is going to be a fun second week of Wimbledon.


The Tennis Picks have had a decent first week at the tournament and I have to be happy with the position they are in going into the second. There is still considerable work to do to ensure the tournament ends with another positive return to add to the season totals, so this is not the time to lose focus.

You can see the tournament totals below as well as the selections from the Fourth Round matches which are all scheduled to be played on Monday.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v Benoit Paire: Reaching the second week at Wimbledon for a second time in his career means this is the best Slam for Benoit Paire. He also managed to reach the Fourth Round at the French Open a few weeks ago and the Frenchman is going to be improving his current World Ranking while also chasing his first ever Quarter Final at a Grand Slam.

Standing in his way is Roberto Bautista Agut who had a very impressive win over Karen Khachanov in the Third Round. The Spaniard is yet to drop a set at Wimbledon and will be playing in the Fourth Round here for a third time. Roberto Bautista Agut managed to reach the Quarter Final at the Australian Open in January, his first appearance in a Grand Slam Quarter Final, and I do think both players will be feeling some nerves with the draw that is open in front of them.

You have to believe the dominant head to head in favour of Bautista Agut is going to play a part in the way the match shakes up. Their one previous match at Wimbledon saw Bautista Agut come from 2-0 down in sets to win in five sets, but that is part of eight straight wins Bautista Agut has had over Paire.

The last match between the two was in January 2017, but Bautista Agut has had a big advantage when it comes to holding serve in previous matches. While he has held 86% of his service games, Benoit Paire is at 63% and I do think this is going to play a part in this match.

Over the last twelve months Bautista Agut has held 93% of his service games played on the grass courts prior to this tournament and he has broken in 24% of return games. In SW19, Bautista Agut has won at least 73% of service points played in each of his three matches and even more impressive is the fact he has been broken just once and not faced a break point in either of the last two Rounds.

Benoit Paire is someone who can get plenty out of his serve on the grass courts so that has to be respected. However he has not been able to get as much from his return of serve as he would have liked and I do think a player like Bautista Agut is going to be have the edge on that side of his game which does end up making a difference on the day.

The Frenchman has held 83% of his service games on the grass courts over the last twelve months prior to Wimbledon. He has remained strong on that side of his game in this tournament, but Paire only breaks serve in 17% of return games and he has struggled for breaks in the last couple of Rounds. I do think Paire will have some success against the Bautista Agut serve, but the latter has enjoyed this match up and has had the edge in those previous matches by a considerable margin when it comes to protecting the serve.

While it is a big number to cover in the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam, I think Bautista Agut can be backed to do that.


Kei Nishikori - 6.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: Back to back upsets over John Isner and Jan-Lennard Struff has seen Mikhail Kukushkin reach the second week at Wimbledon for the first time in his career. In fact this is only the second time the Kazakhstan player has made the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam with the first appearance being back in the Australian Open of 2012.

It is going to take another big upset for Kukushkin to make the Quarter Final and prevent Kei Nishikori from making the final eight in consecutive seasons at Wimbledon. If Kei Nishikori is able to win, he will have made the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam for the fifth major in a row, although he is yet to convert those into a Semi Final at any Slam other than the US Open.

Kei Nishikori decided he would not play any grass court tennis in the lead up to Wimbledon this year, but he has been impressive in the tournament so far. The comfortable Third Round win over Steve Johnson was impressive as Nishikori has continued to serve very well and allowed his solid return game to look after itself.

The serve can be a vulnerability, but Nishikori has only been broken four times in three Rounds at Wimbledon and he has won at least 72% of service points in each Round. In fact Nishikori has improved in each Round with 72% of service points won in the First Round followed by 75% in the Second Round and 78% in the Third Round. The Japanese star has broken in at least three return games in each of the last three Rounds and the strong serving has allowed Nishikori to dominate in his wins.

It is a big challenge in front of Mikhail Kukushkin who was fortunate to beat Jan-Lennard Struff in the last Round. He has shown resilience by edging out John Isner in five sets and then keeping Struff held out in four sets, but spending six and a half hours on court in the last couple of Rounds will have sapped some of the energy.

He is also under some pressure knowing Nishikori has won all nine previous matches on the Tour which have taken place between 2011 and 2018. It is impossible to ignore the fact that Mikhail Kukushkin has held just 63% of his service games played against Kei Nishikori, while the latter has managed to hold onto 87% of his service games in those head to heads.

Their sole previous match at Wimbledon came in 2012 and Kei Nishikori was a comfortable straight sets winner as he produced the much better serving on the day. Mikhail Kukushin's serving on the grass over the last twelve months heading into Wimbledon saw him hold less than 80% of his service games played and I think Kei Nishikori is going to get into enough of those to find the breaks to win and cover the handicap mark in this one.

This is a big mark, but I can see Nishikori wearing down Kukushkin and winning one of the sets with a couple of breaks of serve more than in his opponent while producing a straight sets victory on the day. That should be enough to set him up to cover the line in this one and I do think there is enough productive serving and returning from Kei Nishikori over the last week to keep the head to head numbers similar to where they have been. Those numbers should give him every chance to cover on the form shown so far in SW19.


Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Joao Sousa: The first week of the tournament in Wimbledon looked to be a real test of the resolve Rafael Nadal would have on the grass courts, but he has overcome all of those challenges on his way to the Fourth Round. Three wins have come with a single set being dropped and Nadal beating the likes of Nick Kyrgios and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on the grass courts will have stood him in good stead to take on the second week of Wimbledon.

On paper this may not look a difficult match as the last two Rounds, but Joao Sousa has been playing well enough to be respected. In the build up to this tournament he was holding in 90% of the service games he played on the grass courts and he was winning 71% of the points won behind serve.

Those numbers continued to look impressive in the first two Rounds at Wimbledon, but the Portuguese player was pushed by Dan Evans in the Third Round. Joao Sousa has put a win over a talented grass courter in Marin Cilic in the books with a strong display on both the serve and the return, but in the Third Round win over Evans it was a much to do with the British player's inability to take the chances that were in front of him as it had to do with the performance produced by Sousa.

Being out on the court for almost four hours is not ideal preparation for a Fourth Round match with someone like Rafael Nadal who continues to play some strong grass court tennis. In the last couple of years he has been very good on the surface and was very close to winning Wimbledon twelve months ago, but the Spaniard's wins this year show he is perhaps ready to return to title winning ways in SW19.

Rafael Nadal has won 70% of points behind serve in each of his three matches at Wimbledon, but those numbers have been improving in each passing Round. It won't surprise anyone that a player like Nadal who takes every point as seriously as if his life depends on winning it has been as good on the return as he has with only the match against Nick Kyrgios being problematic after the Australian produced some of his biggest serving.

Since June 2017 Rafael Nadal has broken in 26% of return games played on the grass courts and he has produced thirteen breaks of serve in this tournament so far. That keeps his numbers steady with breaks in 27% of return games played at Wimbledon 2019 and I do think Nadal is going to be able to wear down Sousa and perhaps keep him under constant pressure.

These two players have only met twice before on the Tour and the last of those was over three years ago in May 2016. They have played five sets and Rafael Nadal has held Joao Sousa to one or fewer games in three of those sets. Rafael Nadal has broken in 50% of return games played against Joao Sousa and has held 95% of service games he has played in those two matches and I think the Spaniard can be backed to win and cover a huge number for a Fourth Round match at a Grand Slam.


Matteo Berrettini-Roger Federer over 34.5 games: When the draw was made for Wimbledon at the end of last month the match that looked like it could potentially be a real obstacle in front of former eight time Wimbledon Champion Roger Federer was this one.

Matteo Berrettini has had a stunning year all around to move into the top 20 of the World Rankings, while he has been one of the stand out players over the last month on the grass courts. He was one of the Seeds I was interested seeing in what section of the draw he would land and the Italian has found his way through to the Fourth Round as expected.

Less expected has been the awkwardness of some of the wins Berrettini has produced at the tournament having needed four sets to beat Aljaz Bedene and then five sets to overcome Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. The Italian came from 2-1 down in sets to overcome Schwartzman in the last Round as he saw off the lower Seeded player, but it is not ideal to have been forced to have had to dig in as deep as he had to.

He will be feeling a little disappointed the match took as long as it did as Berrettini served for the first set at 6-5 before losing that on a tie-breaker and missed out on Set Points in the second set before needing to come through another pressurised breaker. The serve just about held itself together in the Third Round win over the dangerous Schwartzman, but Matteo Berrettini will be the first to admit he will need to be at his very best behind that shot to have a chance to win a match of this scale.

Going into the tournament Matteo Berrettini had held 98% of service games played on the grass and he has managed to hold 91% of those games played at Wimbledon. It has continued to allow some freedom for Berrettini on the return of serve, although breaking the Roger Federer serve is always going to be a challenge on the grass courts considering how well the Swiss player has been serving.

Roger Federer has only been broken in two games in his three matches at Wimbledon and since June 2016 he has managed to hold 93% of the service games played on the grass courts. The return has been a declining part of the Federer game and that has to be an area in which Matteo Berrettini has to take advantage with his own ability to look after serve.

Nerves are going to be a factor in this one as Berrettini continues to build on what has been his best Grand Slam performance to date. To try and beat Roger Federer on a grass court at Wimbledon is going to be difficult to put to the back of the mind and that is my one concern in making the selection I have.

Much is going to depend on early in the match- if Berrettini can settle down and get into a rhythm on the serve I do think he can make life tough for Roger Federer. The latter deserves to be a favourite, but even covering the handicap mark will be difficult if Matteo Berrettini does bring his best tennis to the court and I do think the Italian can make his mark even if he falls short.

A strong serving day from Matteo Berrettini will help this Fourth Round match reach a position where we should see the total games line surpassed. I know Roger Federer will be difficult to break, but if Berrettini is able to serve well he could steal a set and force a couple of tie-breakers which will give the match every opportunity of moving over the total games line in this one.


Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 games v Karolina Muchova: Four of the final sixteen players in the women's draw at Wimbledon come from the Czech Republic and this Fourth Round match is going to guarantee at least one player from that country making it through to the Quarter Final.

Two Karolinas from the Czech Republic meet as Muchova and Pliskova clash on Monday. The younger of the two players is Karolina Muchova who has reached a peak Ranking in recent days and she has reached her best Grand Slam result already and so could be feeling there isn't much for her to lose by taking it to the veteran.

Karolina Pliskova had never reached the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam and people had been doubting her before her breakthrough at the US Open in 2016 when finishing as Runner Up. Since then Pliskova has reached the Quarter Final in six of the next ten Grand Slam events being played, although she is looking to do that at Wimbledon for the first time in 2019.

Her experience will certainly give the confidence to crack another barrier on the Tour and Pliskova will also be full of confidence having won the title in Eastbourne just a couple of days before Wimbledon began. The serve has been a huge reason for her successes on the grass with the first serve being a particularly dominant shot for Pliskova and that continues to be the case for the most part at Wimbledon despite the slower conditions at the club.

The return of serve has also been working very well for Pliskova and she certainly has every chance of going all the way and winning the title here out of the weaker bottom half of the draw. However, Karolina Muchova has to be playing with a lot of confidence thanks to the strong performances over the last week and she won't be easy to knock off here.

It has been something of a surprise run from Muchova when you think of her previous performances on the grass, but she has been serving well and that will give her an opportunity to try and shift the pressure onto Pliskova. The serving has given Muchova a chance to attack the return with success and we have certainly seen more from her than previously on this surface, although having the same success against the Pliskova serve will be far from easy.

These two players met at the Australian Open back in January and Pliskova was able to really hurt Muchova on the return of serve. On that day Karolina Pliskova also won 71% of service points played and created ten break points against the Karolina Muchova serve.

In this tournament Muchova has been broken three times compared with Pliskova's serve being broken five times, but I think the match up should favour the older Czech player. This is a tough mental spot for Muchova who may have looked up to the likes of Pliskova and Petra Kvitova when getting onto the Tour, and that may also play a part in this match.

Much will depend on the Pliskova serve, but if she has a good day on that side of her game I would think she has enough power in the return to hurt the Muchova second serve and then cover the handicap mark in the match.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Any time a twenty-three time Grand Slam Champion reaches the second week of a tournament then you know other players around the draw will be sitting up and paying keen attention. Most will suggest they only take it 'one match at a time' and that they don't focus on other results, but Serena Williams coming through the first week at Wimbledon will have been very difficult to ignore.

This Fourth Round match should be a good one for Williams on paper as she has dominated Carla Suarez Navarro in their previous six matches on the Tour. The last of those was back in 2015 when Serena Williams was arguably a different player, but I don't think it is worth ignoring the fact that Suarez Navarro has yet to win more than three games in a single set against the former World Number 1.

The American was not at her fluent best in the first couple of Rounds at Wimbledon, but the performance in seeing off Julia Goerges in the Third Round was very impressive. Serena Williams has held 85% of service games played in the tournament and she has won at least 65% of service points in each of her three matches here, but in the last Round she did not face a break point and I do think there is a feeling that she is peaking as we head into the second week of the tournament.

The breaks have been coming pretty regularly for Williams in the last seven days too and I do think her power has every chance of imprinting on the Suarez Navarro serve. While the Spaniard has been able to come through her matches without dropping a set, she has been broken seven times already and the fact that Serena Williams has won 58% of the points played on the Suarez Navarro serve in their previous matches has to be a big concern.

In their previous six matches, five of them have seen Serena Williams avoid being broken. That might not be the case when these two meet in the Fourth Round, but I do think Serena Williams will have too much in this match up and she should be able to dominate the return to the extent of being in a position to win and cover the handicap in the Fourth Round.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini-Roger Federer Over 34.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin-Fernando Verdasco Over 37.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Guido Pella-Milos Raonic Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 40-31, + 11.78 Units (142 Units Staked, + 8.30% Yield)