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Friday, 12 July 2019

Boxing Picks 2019- Daniel Dubois vs Nathan Gorman (July 12th-14th)

There are some huge fights to come in the month of July and some of those begin this weekend where the O2 is hosting the first of back to back cards over the next nine days.

First up is the Frank Warren Heavy Duty card which features his three top Heavyweight Boxers outside of Tyson Fury. The headline is Daniel Dubois vs Nathan Gorman as two of the brightest Heavyweight Boxers put their unbeaten records on the line, while Joe Joyce takes his next step on the path towards a World Title shot, one that may come around much quicker if Andy Ruiz Jr is able to win his rematch with Anthony Joshua and the titles become fractured again.

We also a really strange card in Saudi Arabia on Friday which is headlined by Amir Khan who has been promised a top five WBC World Ranking if he can beat what looks an overmatched opponent. There is also a couple of good looking fights coming from the United States on Sunday and then next week we will move into another big night of Heavyweight Boxing in London before the very intriguing Keith Thurman vs Manny Pacquiao clash coming out of Las Vegas.

The Boxing Picks are in a profitable position for the 2019 season to follow on from the 2018 year, but I am still not completely satisfied with how things have gone so far. Over the second half of the year I am trying to find better consistency from the selections and looking to boost the overall numbers.

You can read the Picks from the Weekend Boxing below and this will be the 'Featured Post' through the weekend.

Hughie Fury vs Samuel Peter
I have to admit I have been baffled by the fights that are going to be staged in Saudi Arabia on Friday, but one Heavyweight bout I would never have pegged is this one between Hughie Fury and Samuel Peter.

It says something that this is arguably the strangest of the fights on a card that also features Prince Patel fighting for a vacant 'World Title' and Amir Khan making his return to the ring against an opponent who looks like he should not really be in ring with them.

Cousin Tyson is arguably the Number 1 Heavyweight in the World, but Hughie Fury has not given up his own dreams of becoming a World Champion. At 24 years old there is time on his side, but injuries have plagued him in his young career and forced him to give up his British Title which is going to be fought for on Saturday night.

His two previous losses have come in his last four bouts as Fury has fallen short to both Joseph Parker and Kubrat Pulev. Those are world class operators, but Fury needs to find a way to get the best out of his skills if he is going to be a genuine World Champion and the team insists he is still on a learning curve despite having twenty-four bouts under his belt.

A few years ago the Nigerian Nightmare would have provided a stern test for Fury, but his best days are long behind him. Samuel Peter has lost half of his last eight fights and those have come over an eight year period with the most recent outing coming at the end of April.

In that fight Peter secured a First Round stoppage and that was two weeks after losing to Mario Heredia on the cards, although it has been seen that Samuel Peter still carries some real power in his shots. Three fights in a little under three years is not really going to cut the mustard though and I do think this has been put together as a showcase fight for Fury with the name Samuel Peter has in the Boxing circles.

It will be interesting to see how much punishment Peter is willing to take in this one as he is a faded force, but much will depend on Hughie Fury's ambitions. I don't think the British fighter will want to give Peter the chance to land something very big so I can imagine Fury begins cautiously as he looks to use his height and reach to control the distance between him and his still relatively dangerous opponent.

By the Fourth Round I can imagine most of the ambition from Peter will be looking to cock a big punch to put Fury's lights out, but at that stage of the fight it will be up to Hughie Fury to begin using his speed and freshness to break down this opponent.

One of the criticisms of Hughie Fury in the past is that he can be a little slow to really let his hands go, but my feeling is by either Round Six or Seven he will realise there isn't much coming back from Samuel Peter. At that stage I can see Fury looking to make a statement by stopping the former World Champion and a combination or two may have the referee stepping and calling an end to the contest.

A small interest on Hughie Fury finding the stoppage in the second half of the fight is the call in this one.

Amir Khan vs Billy Dib
When the initial bout between Amir Khan and Neeraj Goyat was announced most believed it was going to be a huge mismatch in the main event of the card in Saudi Arabia. An accident back in India meant Goyat was not able to be ready in time for his fight, but the replacement Billy Dib looks like one that makes it a stretch to call this a credible fight.

After their ridiculous decision to make Canelo Alvarez 'Franchise' Champion, I don't think anyone will be surprised to hear that the winner of this one is going to be in the top five of the World Rankings according to the WBC. So a fight between someone who was beaten by Terance Crawford three months ago and another who last meaningful fight saw him weigh over a stone lighter than he will for this one is going to be placed in the top five of the WBC Rankings? What a farce!

All that nonsense aside, this really does not look like a competitive fight and I would be very surprised if Amir Khan is not able to blow past Billy Dib. There are clear signs that Khan is not the fighter he once was, but he is still very quick early on in fights and had enough pop to Knock Down Samuel Vargas once in the Second Round and once in the Third Round last year.

While there isn't much between these two in terms of height and reach, Amir Khan is the more natural at the weight too and I think that has to be a factor in this one.

Billy Dib can open up what seemed to be closed doors for him after losing to Tevin Farmer at Super Featherweight, but it is a big ask to take this fight at short notice and having to go up the weight Divisions to do that. He has been stopped twice at much lower weight classes, and I do think the speed of Khan is going to bamboozle the Australian who has said all the right things coming into this fight.

Ultimately I am not sure he is going to be able to keep Khan from really opening with the speedy combinations very early in this fight and I think that will see Dib struggle to get out of early Rounds. Amir Khan is most certainly in a massive decline in his career, but he will be looking to make a show in front of the Saudi Arabian fans in attendance and also ensure they are getting the big display they have paid for.

If this one goes longer than Four Rounds I think Amir Khan should seriously contemplate retirement- everything looks like it is set up for the British fighter to win this one comfortably and set up another big fight before the end of the year and I don't think there is enough reason to believe Billy Dib is going to be anything more than the chance for Khan to secure a fast stoppage.

Billy Dib comes in with short notice, having to need a big weight gain and against an opponent who has been operating at a higher level. One Round in almost twelve months is far from ideal preparation for Dib and the I think the Australian is going to suffer an early stoppage in this one.

Liam Williams vs Karim Achour
There would have been some questions about Liam Williams and where he was going to go in his career after losing to Liam Smith twice in 2017. Both defeats were close, but there had to be some soul searching done by the Welshman who has moved up from Light Middleweight since his defeats to Smith and now operates in the Middleweight Division.

Wins over Mark Heffron and Joe Mullender look pretty decent for Williams especially the manner in which those bouts were won. Liam Williams has thus made enough of an impact in the Division to have a chance to win the Silver WBC Middleweight Title as he fights for that belt against Karim Achour on Saturday.

A win for Williams will perhaps give him a chance for a really big fight across the pond in the United States where some of the biggest names in the Division operate. It is unlikely he would go straight into those fights with the likes of Canelo Alvarez or Gennady Golovkin, but Williams will want to put his name alongside those chasing the big payday bout.

Four stoppages in his last four fights since the defeats to Smith will give Wiliams some real belief that he can be the first person to stop Karim Achour. The Frenchman has been in with the likes of Martin Murray, Lukas Konecny and David Lemieux so he is someone who can take a shot, but he never looked like winning the last fight and I do wonder if the Canadian had enough strength having tried to make weight and missing his target.

Making weight is not going to be an issue for Liam Williams who has looked strong in the Division and I think there may be plenty of punishment for Achour to absorb if he is going to get to the cards. He has to make the Welshman respect his own power, but four stoppages from twenty-seven wins would have most question whether he will have enough to keep the pressure fighting Brit from moving forward.

Liam Williams himself has promised a stoppage, and there has been some tension between them at the weigh in which spices things up. I do think Williams is going to be wearing down Achour over the course of the fight and my feeling is that any stoppage is going to come in the second half of the contest.

It looks worth an interest to back that to be the outcome of this fight as Liam Williams continues pushing his name up the World Rankings.

Joe Joyce vs Bryant Jennings
I really don't know what I think of Joe Joyce who is still trying to fast-track himself into a position to fight for a World Title. Turning late from amateur to professional, there is no doubt that Joyce is talented, although I find it tough to see him competing with the very elite of the Heavyweight Division.

This chief support bout at the O2 Arena in London is a very good test for Joyce even if Bryant Jennings is coming in off a late stoppage to Oscar Rivas who is in London to take on Dillian Whyte next week.

The American's most famous bout has to be when he challenged Wladimir Klitschko for the World Titles back in 2015, but Jennings might have gotten a lot of credit for actually doing far better than most would have expected. Since then he has not only been stopped by Rivas, but Jennings was also stopped by Luis Ortiz in Seven Rounds and I think this is going to be a fight when the relentless approach that Joyce uses is going to wear down Jennings and eventually catch up to the American as he slows in the second half of the fight.

To me Joyce seems to be a little one paced with his approach and I do think someone like Oleksandr Usyk would beat him very comfortably as he did when they were amateurs. Even the likes of Dillian Whyte and Luis Ortiz look to be above Joyce, and while you can't ignore the limited professional fights Joyce has had, he is also someone that doesn't have the time to really build as he would if he was 25 years old.

Bermane Stiverne was able to hang around against Joe Joyce when they met in February, and I think Bryant Jennings has arrived in London in much better shape to compete. He is quite quick and slick and I think in the early Rounds that movement is going to be important for Jennings to just keep Joyce slightly off balance.

As the fight develops I think Joyce will be able begin finding a more static target and by the second half of the fight I would expect Bryant Jennings to find it difficult to keep the distance between him and The Juggernaut. At that point the power shots from Joyce should have begun to take an effect too and I think the British fighter is going to be able to come out with a stoppage through the second half of the fight.

Daniel Dubois vs Nathan Gorman
If we have learned anything from Boxing over the last six weeks it is that you should never judge a book by its cover. I do think that has been part of the reason Nathan Gorman is perhaps not as highly rated as Daniel Dubois, although his recent performances have been a little underwhelming too.

When the weights came in for this fight for the British Title between two unbeaten Heavyweights I almost had to re-read the numbers that came up. Nathan Gorman is considerably heavier than Daniel Dubois despite the feeling being that Gorman would want to move around and use his boxing skills and Dubois would be the want who want so set his feet and unleash the undoubted power he has.

The weights do make the fight that much more intriguing- I have been going back and forth with this one. At first I thought Nathan Gorman is perhaps being underestimated for the superior boxing skills and he should be able to keep Dubois from really loading up on his shots. Now my feeling is that the weight he is carrying around is going to see Gorman slow down and not be able to stay away from Dubois which means much is going to depend on how well the underdog can take his shots.

He comes from a tough line and I do think Nathan Gorman will be inspired by Tyson Fury and what he has been able to do without being as body beautiful as the likes of Anthony Joshua. There are those who are going to compared Joshua with Dubois and feel the latter is going to be exposed, but coming in lighter should mean Dubois can be able to bounce on his feet and keep plenty of energy in the tank for as long as this fight goes.

Most believe this is either going to be Nathan Gorman on points or Daniel Dubois with the stoppage. I tend to lean the way of the latter being the outcome in this one and I will back Daniel Dubois to win the British Title and look to make a move towards a World Title bid in the coming months.

Nathan Gorman can come again and will be able to rebuild under Frank Warren with both men deserving credit for taking a chance with a fight of this magnitude at this stage of their careers.

MY PICKS: Hughie Fury to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Amir Khan to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Liam Williams to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Joe Joyce to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Daniel Dubois to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Boxing 2019: 15-27, + 4.28 Units (67 Units Staked, + 6.39% Yield)
Boxing 2018: + 5.14 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.23% Yield)

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