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Saturday, 20 July 2019

Boxing Picks 2019- Dillian Whyte vs Oscar Rivas (July 20th)

There haven't been as many really big cards in the United Kingdom as the fans would have liked in 2019, but things are expected to change in the second half of the year. Last week the Daniel Dubois performance in his win over Nathan Gorman was very good to watch, but the first appearance of Dillian Whyte in 2019 will be a big event at the same venue that was used last week.

We should have confirmation of Vasyl Lomachenko versus Luke Campbell by the end of Saturday evening and plenty is pointing towards Anthony Joshua's rematch with Andy Ruiz also landing in the UK with Cardiff looking to lead the way.

I am still hopeful that Josh Taylor's World Boxing Super Series fight with Regis Prograis is also going to land on these shores, but before all that we have the Whyte card to get through on Saturday.


That is the headline in the UK, but later in the evening a big Welterweight fight between Keith Thurman and Manny Pacquiao which is hopefully going to move that Division in the direction of at least a big Unification or two down the line. Both are under the PBC banner and that is also the case for Errol Spence Jr and Shawn Porter who are expected to face off in September with the winners of the two bouts meeting early in 2020.

A decent undercard has been put together too in Las Vegas and this is a big Saturday night for those who plan on watching both cards that begin at 6pm British time and won't end until close to 6am the following morning.


The Boxing Picks are producing a profit for 2019, but June was a pretty poor month all round and I am looking for a bounce back this month. Last week was a good weekend for the selections with the three winners overcoming two losers and adding some decent numbers to the season totals.

You can see those below as well as the Boxing Picks from the Saturday cards.


Lawrence Okolie vs Mariano Angel Gudino
If it wasn't for an injury suffered by Jack Massey, Lawrence Okolie would have been in the ring a couple of weeks ago and today he would have been in Nigeria with Anthony Joshua.

Instead the withdrawal meant Eddie Hearn had to cancel his whole card and any Okolie fight was pushed back to be placed on the undercard of the Dillian Whyte headlined event at the O2 Arena. Earlier this year there seemed to be something developing between Okolie and Whyte, but that has passed for now and the Cruiserweight is still trying to make a big impact in his own Division before thinking about the move up to Heavyweight.

It is unlikely that Mariano Angel Gudino is really going to test Okolie despite coming over to the UK making all the right noises. The Argentinian has only fought outside of his home country once and he is one fight removed from being stopped so it is asking a lot of Gudino to really push Okolie and that despite the reputation South American fighters have for their toughness and willingness to bite down on the gumshield when under pressure.

Ultimately the feeling is that this is a tick along fight for Okolie and I don't think Gudino will have been picked if the management team of Okolie really felt it was an awkward fight. Lawrence Okolie can be a tough watch for many with his style far from the most pleasing, but he is long and he does possess some power and I am interested to see how much punishment Gudino is willing to take early on in this one.

Much depends on Lawrence Okolie and how quickly he settles in this one and plants his feet to land his punches. Eight of his twelve wins have come in the first three Rounds and I do think he is someone whose power can be something of an eye opener for opponents. If the Argentinian visitor is not as sure about his ability as he seems to be, I think Okolie can put a couple of Rounds in the bank before securing a comfortable early stoppage and keeping his career ticking along.


Richard Riakporhe vs Chris Billam-Smith
The first Cruiserweight I have discussed had something of a public falling out with Dillian Whyte, but Richard Riakporhe is taking advice from Whyte as he builds towards a potential fight with Lawrence Okolie. I am not entirely sold on Riakporhe who was being out-boxed by Sam Hyde at the back end of 2018, but he does have a real leveller with the power he brings and that makes him a threat in the Division.

Richard Riakporhe was much better in his win over Tommy McCarthy last time out in a bout where he was considered an underdog by many. Now he comes into this one as the favourite, but Riakporhe will be full of respect for Chris Billam-Smith who has the exact same 9-0 record as his opponent and with the same eight stoppages in those bouts.

Out of the two Boxers I do feel like Riakporhe has been facing a higher level of opponent than Billam-Smith. That might not mean a lot in the grand scheme of things and Billam-Smith is being trained by Shane McGuigan so there has to be some real talent there. Bringing in Okolie to spar will have helped Billam-Smith too, but it is a different story getting in the ring with a power hitter like Riakporhe who is hoping to push on and get Okolie in the ring for real later this year.

My feeling is that Riakporhe's experiences in the ring and the power he has will prove to be the difference between these two unbeaten fighters. All of the right noises are coming from the Billam-Smith camp, but it will be interesting to see how he responds to the big shots that will be coming his way and whether he decides to try and box, or get drawn into a firefight with his own eight stoppages likely suggesting he has some power to draw on too.

Both could be ready to settle down and throw down, but my lean is towards Richard Riakporhe just having a bit too much strength for Billam-Smith. Backing him to earn a stoppage in the first half of the fight looks a big price here and worth a small interest.


Dereck Chisora vs Artur Szpilka
Two 'crazy' fighters, as both have described themselves, meet in a crossroads Heavyweight fight on Saturday at the O2 Arena. This really feels like either developing into a stinker where neither fighter is able to sit down and impose themselves as they would want, or an all out war that could be the potential Fight of the Night.

Dereck Chisora and Artur Szpilka have both reached the World level in their careers having fought for Titles, but both came up short and the loser really doesn't look to have anywhere to go. Twelve months ago Chisora reinvigorated his career with a huge stoppage of Carlos Takam in this Arena, but he was beaten by Dillian Whyte last December and has had one pretty routine win since then.

Motivation is always a question mark for Chisora, but he has to know he can't afford to lose this if he wants the big paydays ahead. A loss would make him a viable fight for the likes of Joe Joyce and Daniel Dubois who are moving up the levels, but Chisora still wants more from his career.

Artur Szpilka is also in 'must win' territory as he continues his own rebuild after back to back stoppage losses to Deontay Wilder and Adam Kownacki. A Split Decision win over Marius Wach has kept the Pole's name from being completely irrelevant in the Heavyweight Division, but his highlight reel KO from Wilder has definitely taken something away from him.

There is little doubt the punch resistance isn't really there anymore and I think much depends on how much Chisora wants to push on and make a statement on the undercard. With the Titles potentially becoming fractured at the end of the year, Chisora may still have one big opportunity to become a World Champion and that has to make him ready to go.

Even then there have been times when Chisora has struggled to perform as he would have wanted to do against opponents that perhaps don't fire him up like Whyte or Tyson Fury have done. It is a concern for me, but I think Chisora might be forced into a fight by Szpilka who really is only going to try and perform one way in this one.

My feeling is that Szpilka is not the fighter he was before being wiped out by Wilder and if Chisora is able to press forward and land some big shots he can find the stoppage. Dereck Chisora is a pressure fighter and is not blessed with a lot of power like Wilder and Whyte, but he can still do enough to hurt the Pole whose resistance may be worn down now.

All of Szpilka's three defeats have come by stoppage and one of those was against Bryant Jennings. I still think Chisora has just about enough in the tank to find the stoppage before we go to the cards too and I think he can be backed to do that.



David Allen vs David Price
The main support bout on the Dillian Whyte undercard is one between the two Davids in the Heavyweight Division who will feel this one opens the door for some big fights ahead. On paper you have to say everything is leaning towards David Price who has the amateur pedigree and the superior boxing skills of the two fighters, but the Liverpudlian has long been a vulnerable fighter too.

No one will doubt that Price has a limited gas tank and while being a very dangerous fighter for three or four Rounds the question will always be what will happen if he can't get an opponent out of there in that time. Only one of his last eleven fights has featured the bell ringing for the Seventh Round and even in Price's win over Kash Ali last time out there was a feeling he was perhaps beginning to run on fumes before the biting incident caused a premature end to the contest.

In my mind the only real question in this fight is how well prepared David Allen is- he may not be the best fighter out there, but he has shown a resilience and looks to be training about as hard as any time in his career.

Four wins in a row have sparked something in Allen and he has also been given extra motivation with news that he will be fighting Alexander Povetkin at the end of August if he can come through this fight. David Allen has been stopped twice before, but one was in the Seventh Round against Luis Ortiz and one was a Tenth Round stoppage against Tony Yoka, but both at a time when Allen was perhaps not taking his boxing as seriously as he has been over the last twelve months.

Ultimately I do think it comes down to whether Allen can get through what are likely to be a tricky one or two Rounds at the beginning of the fight. If he can he should be able to pressure Price to the point where the bigger man will be running on empty by the halfway mark when the finish could come. David Allen has shown enough punching power to take out a depleted Price and I will back him to win this one in the middle four Rounds of the fight.


Dillian Whyte vs Oscar Rivas
It looks like a long awaited World Title shot for Dillian Whyte is just around the corner with the WBC ruling their Number 1 Ranked fighter should have his shot within the next twelve months. I don't think Whyte will care if that is against Deontay Wilder or Tyson Fury, but at least there is light at the end of a 600 plus day tunnel.

That light will quickly fade if Whyte is not able to beat unbeaten Oscar Rivas in what looks to be an intriguing fight on Saturday night. The layers think Whyte is a big favourite, but Rivas has the amateur pedigree that served Andy Ruiz Jr so well in his win over Anthony Joshua and being unbeaten means the Colombian should arrive with plenty of confidence.

To be honest there isn't much we can read into his resume with the best win being a Twelfth Round stoppage of Bryant Jennings back in January, but I really am not convinced he has the power to hurt Whyte. Oscar Rivas will perhaps have speed and better boxing combinations on his side, but I can't wait to see how he reacts when Whyte hits him with something very big.

Stamina issues are perhaps a concern for Whyte, especially as he was virtually out on his feet twelve months ago against Joseph Parker, but I do think he has the power to change the course of this fight. Dillian Whyte did tire in his first fight with Dereck Chisora and was arguably losing the second before finding an equaliser from the much vaunted left hook and I do think this has the potential of being a very awkward night for the home fighter and the favourite.

I am not surprised some of the experts out there are tipping up Rivas who has the pedigree, but Whyte can turn this is into anything but a boxing contest. Instead he will look to make it a fight and I do think his size and power could make a difference after perhaps even being behind on the cards through the first six Rounds.

The layers believe a Whyte win on the cards is the most likely scenario, but I think he has a chance to find the stoppage in the second half of the bout. At some point Oscar Rivas may take risks which leaves him open to the counter and a small interest in the British fighter to earn the stoppage looks the call.


Luis Nery vs Juan Carlos Payano
There is a big name card that has been put together in Las Vegas and the return of Luis Nery after a strong performance in March should be one that intrigues plenty out there. The Mexican at 24 years old will be considered the Number 1 fighter in the Division by many and we look like we could be on course for a huge bout between him and Naoya Inoue as long as the latter comes through the World Boxing Super Series Final.

Many are going to be looking at Luis Nery and see how he copes with former World Champion Juan Carlos Payano who is just one fight removed from his devastating First Round Knock Out by Inoue.

We have seen plenty of power from Nery and only one of his last ten opponents have heard the bell for the Seventh Round. There are some reservations about the way Nery has been able to get down to the required weights in the past, but you have to take this fight at the face value and I think he can produce a statement win of his own.

Juan Carlos Payano has suffered just two losses in his career, but he won't have faced too many as powerful as Luis Nery. The one time was that blowout defeat to Inoue and I think the Mexican can be backed to win this one in the first six Rounds of the contest.


Caleb Plant vs Mike Lee
He looked a live underdog in his win over Jose Uzcategui back in January and now Caleb Plant is looking to defend his IBF World Super-Middleweight Title for the first time on Saturday. This is a fighter that could be moving on to big Unifications in the Division if he can make a statement on a solid undercard in Las Vegas and I do think the American has been given the chance to face someone he should be beating.

Mike Lee is unbeaten, but he has never campaigned as low as Super-Middleweight and there is little doubt he does not have a very deep resume. It can be foolish to ignore the credentials of an unbeaten fighter, but I am not sure Plant's people would have put him in a live contest in his first defence as they look to promote his name.

I think Plant is going to have the speed and the accuracy that is going to make life very difficult for Mike Lee. The Champion also showed some pop when putting ferocious puncher Uzcategui down twice in their Title bout back in January and I do think we could see Caleb Plant earn his first stoppage in six fights since finding the finish against Carlos Galvan in 2016.

My belief is that the speed is going to see Plant well up on the cards by the halfway mark and he will have been asked to put an exclamation point on the performance. At that point I think Lee might find he is in a little over his level and also any potential issues out of a weight cut might also come to the fore.

The layers are expecting a relatively early night for the Champion, but I think a small interest on Plant putting his punches together against a tired opponent is warranted. As Mike Lee perhaps starts shipping too much punishment, Plant should be able to press forward and get the referee or the corner to save their man from unnecessary shots.


Keith Thurman vs Manny Pacquiao
For those planning to stay up in the United Kingdom through the two big cards, the main event from Las Vegas looks a good one between Keith Thurman and Manny Pacquiao. The WBA Super Title is on the line in the Welterweight Division and the winner is likely going to move on to face the winner of the Errol Spence Jr and Shawn Porter bout that is set to take place in the next couple of months.

A lot of the fans are going to be behind Pacquiao who is a legend of the sport, but at 40 years old you do have to wonder if the Filipino has enough in the tank to hold off a much younger and much bigger fighter in Thurman. The odds have flipped in the last couple of weeks with Pacquiao moving from the underdog to a pretty strong favourite, but I think a lot of money from the Pac Man supporters will be influencing things.

The other factor is the relatively poor performance Thurman had in his comeback fight back in January. One fight in two and a half years is not ideal for any Boxer, and the performance against Josesito Lopez in January suggested Thurman had plenty of ring rust to shake off.

Going straight into the Manny Pacquiao fight is a tough ask with that performance in mind, but I don't think Keith Thurman is cashing in here. It is a huge fight for Thurman and could open some very big doors with the kind of Unification fights that could be round the corner, while I also think Pacquiao is not the fighter he once was.

Manny Pacquiao has had two solid wins since his defeat to Jeff Horn two years ago, but he has been relatively inactive too. At 40 years old that has to make an impact and I don't think Thurman is going to be anything near as gun-shy as Adrien Broner when he lost a wide Decision to Pacquiao back in January.

I am really surprised that One Time is such an underdog in this one- I think he should be all the better for the fight he had in January and he is younger and fresher than Pacquiao. Being the bigger man helps and he looks a big price to win this bout even though I hate fading a legend like Pacquiao.

My gut says something is not quite right with the prices to the point where I have some doubts about Thurman as someone, somewhere must have seen something in him over the last few months. However, the price is one that stands out to be here and I will back Thurman to come through with a victory either within the Twelve Rounds or on the cards.

MY PICKS: Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-3 @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Riakporhe to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Dereck Chisora to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Allen to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Dillian Whyte to Win Between 7-12 @ 5.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Luis Nery to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Caleb Plant to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Keith Thurman @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2019: 18-29, + 9.13 Units (74 Units Staked, + 12.34% Yield)
Boxing 2018: + 5.14 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.23% Yield)

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