Wimbledon Tennis Day 11 Picks 2019 (July 12th)

I have been pretty underwhelmed with the way this Wimbledon has played out and it might have been one of the weaker Grand Slam events I can remember in some time.

We just haven't seen the kind of drama you would normally associate with the Slams and the two Ladies Semi Finals on Thursday continued the routine wins that players seem to be producing even at this late stage of the tournament.

Both Serena Williams and Simona Halep deserve their spot in the Final and I think the former is going to be a strong favourite to win the title. I will get onto the Ladies Final on Friday, but the main focus of this thread is the two Men's Semi Final matches to be played.


The big three who have dominated the Grand Slams over the last fifteen years have continued to do that at Wimbledon with all three of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer making their way through to the Semi Final. None of them have really been tested and that should mean we are in for at least two fascinating matches before Wimbledon is all said and done as I don't foresee fitness issues cropping up.

The other player left in the tournament is Roberto Bautista Agut, but I am not sure it is going to be a straight-forward match for Novak Djokovic as most are expecting. The Spaniard has made comfortable progress through the draw so should have plenty in the tank to take it to the World Number 1, although most fans will be hoping these two don't wait too long to allow Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer to take centre stage eleven years after they last met at Wimbledon.

I would be extremely disappointed if we don't get to see a much better match than their Semi Final at the French Open with the conditions making it easier for Federer to play the game he needs to beat Nadal. The latter has been in great form too though and I do hope for a match to light up a tournament that has been missing a spark since day one.


The Tennis Picks went 1-1 on Thursday with Serena Williams covering easily, but Elina Svitolina not able to keep things as competitive as I thought she might be able to do against Simona Halep.

Wimbledon remains in a very strong position for the Picks, but I do want to finish off the final four matches with a winning record to underline the solid returns from the tournament. You can see the updated record from Wimbledon below the Tennis Picks from the Men's Semi Finals.


Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Roberto Bautista Agut: Most of the headlines at Wimbledon are focusing on the second of the Men's Semi Final matches to be played on Friday and you can't be surprised when Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are involved in that match.

Before they arrive on Centre Court, World Number 1 and defending Champion Novak Djokovic will be looking to book his return to the Final. He is a very big favourite when taking on Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut who is making his debut in a Grand Slam Semi Final rather than being out in Ibiza enjoying his Stag Party with his friends.

Everywhere I have turned to it sounds like most are expecting Novak Djokovic to dispose of the challenge from Roberto Bautista Agut without too many issues presenting themselves. The form of Djokovic certainly gives those experts reason to believe that, although Bautista Agut has been comfortable on the grass courts.

I completely understand the thinking that Djokovic does everything Bautista Agut does, but only better too, but the Spaniard has beaten the World Number 1 in both of their meetings in the 2019 season. I don't think that is something that can be thrown away without given a real factor into how this match could go. Those two matches in the 2018 season have been very close with little between them and both have needed to go the full distance to determine a winner.

The numbers are similar from those matches with Bautista Agut winning 64% of points behind serve and holding 79% of his service games compared with Novak Djokovic who has won 63% of his service points while holding in 80% of his service games played. It certainly shows the Spaniard can at least stick with Djokovic even if it is a much tougher task beating him a best of five set situation.

Novak Djokovic has won all three of their previous Grand Slam matches, but Roberto Bautista Agut has taken a set in each of those and I definitely think there is a chance he can do that here.

We are going to need to see some strong serving from Bautista Agut to do that, but he has played well enough at Wimbledon and in the build up to the event to believe he can. In Halle he took a set from Roger Federer, and Bautista Agut has only dropped his serve four times in this tournament. I have little doubt Novak Djokovic is going to test that on his current form, but his opponent will have seen the success David Goffin was having against the World Number 1 and will likely look to follow the same blueprint.

I do have a concern that Bautista Agut's numbers at Wimbledon have declined in each passing Round, but he should have belief against this opponent with the wins he has had over Djokovic over the last seven months. Novak Djokovic is producing the steadier and stronger numbers than Bautista Agut, but this feels like a tougher match than many believe.

I did initially consider backing Bautista Agut with the start on the set handicap, but I think it would be a huge surprise if he can win two sets against Novak Djokovic in the form the defending Champion has been in. Roberto Bautista Agut does hold those two wins over Djokovic from earlier this season, but I think this could be the fourth Slam meeting between these two players that ends up being decided in four sets in favour of the Serb.

It is worth a small interest to back Djokovic to win this one in four sets at a big price.


Rafael Nadal-Roger Federer over 39.5 games: I can see why the layers have had so many difficulties separating these players and I really can make a big case for either Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the most anticipated match that is going to be played at Wimbledon 2019. As soon as the draw was completed there was a hope we would see two of the best players of all time meet at Wimbledon again for the first time since the 'greatest match' was played between the two in the 2008 Final.

On that day Rafael Nadal finally got the better of Roger Federer on the grass courts of Centre Court as he won 9-7 in the fifth set with the light disappearing at a rapid rate. It was the most memorable match I have seen these two play and the high drama of the rain delays and the fading light all contributed to an epic Final.

The hope is that the Semi Final can live up to those standards and the performances of Nadal and Federer in this tournament certainly suggest it can. This is a surface on which Federer can have the most joy from his aggressive game against Nadal, while recent meetings have seen the head to head closed after Roger Federer won five in a row against his old rival between January 2017 and June 2019 when the run was ended in Nadal's straight sets win over Federer on the clay of Roland Garros.

That is a surface that favours Nadal massively, but the grass is expected to even things up somewhat. Rafael Nadal may be leading the head to head 10-3 in Grand Slam matches, but that become 4-3 in favour of the Spaniard when you remove their six previous matches at Roland Garros.

In their three previous matches at Wimbledon, Roger Federer has had the very slight edge when it comes to the serving over Rafael Nadal, but the last of those matches was a long time ago. They do tend to be closely matched on matches outside of the clay courts and only one of their seven Grand Slam matches on the hard courts or grass courts have ended in straight sets. Four of those have needed five sets including two of the three played at Wimbledon and this really feels like a match in which the person imposing their style the best is going to win.

Rafael Nadal will look to attack the Roger Federer backhand relentlessly until it breaks down, while Roger Federer will be aggressive and look for heavy forehands, big serves and then an ability to put balls away at the net to try and edge this match in his favour. Both have been serving and returning very impressively at SW19, but I have to give Nadal the narrow edge considering the level of opponent he has faced compared with Federer.

Gun to the head I would back the Spaniard to find a way to get this done, but opposing Roger Federer as the underdog on a grass court has not been a very profitable angle to take. He has upset both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic as an underdog in this tournament in the past, and Federer will believe his game plan in Paris will be much more effective on this court, even if it has not played as quickly as past years.

The edge is with Rafael Nadal when it comes to the returning being produced at Wimbledon in the 2019 tournament, but I would be extremely disappointed if this match finishes in straight sets. Matches between these two legends have gone very deep when they have met off the clay courts and even their first ever best of five set match at the Miami Masters in 2005 needed the full complement of sets to determine a winner.

In this case even a four set match should give the players every chance to cover the total games line being set in this Semi Final. This may be the last time Roger Federer faces Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon and I don't think either player goes away quietly in the contest and the layers may just be correct in anticipating a tight match that could easily go all the way to a fifth set.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 3.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal- Roger Federer Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 54-39, + 22.64 Units (186 Units Staked, + 12.17% Yield)